8% of my portfolio

I am targeting 40 sen

On top of today 15 sen buy, I have A LOT of mother at 90 sen cost and sons at 18 sen cost

A LOT

put it this way, I am now loaded with so many good quality high potential second liners (thanks Mr. Bear) I don't need to risk it with jaks

why my exposure so small if I am so bullish about its prospect ?

I sleep better, that's all

4.16% of my portfolio

me

not you

Jiahui work for EWINT and based in London ah ? One day after take profit I pay you a visit and we go yumcha

X P

if our ex PM is as rational honest and diligent as you, the rakyat will be smiling in their dream


Najib Zamry Added 20,000 shares at 2.23 today. Would be happy to collect more i
16/01/2019 11:06

that is the difference between them and us, qqq3

but my small stake is definitely better than those cynics that totally avoid this stock

their cynicism completely deprives them opportunities to capture the potential windfall , which comes at minimal risk if you keep your exposure small

to be honest, I haven't bet very big

if it is really that good as I say above, my small stake can deliver a huge gain

after all not exactly a good quality company and a lot of things we don't understand

yes, same concern here

but all these becomes non issue when you put on a long term investor cap

why pick this for long term ?

ask yourself what kind of company is this ?

answer : a world class company. It has economy of scale, financial resources, expertise and proper governance to go very far

I can see traces of moat in this group (anyway, I am not a big fan of moat, I am not obsessed with it. I believe it is a topic that need to be revisited and challenged, after Buffett promulgated it as the holy grail for long term portfolio success)

buy now, put aside, hold for lets say, 10 years, ride the cycles, let it grow organically (yes, nowadays I have become very patient). Let your money works for you

no guarantee it will work, but it is a rational bet

that is my game plan


Posted by Ricky Kiat > Jan 16, 2019 10:55 AM | Report Abuse

bro icon888, my concern is petchem build a new plant at pengerang(2019),likely use naphtha as material. pls check.

if they spend some money to buy the additional 10% stake from the Chinese, increasing stake from 30% to 40%, maybe can go to RM7.00

yes, provided no fraud, this is a RM5.00 stock

you find it ridiculous ?

MFCB 260 MW can potential generate RM260 mil (upper limit) net profit

Jaks 360 MW net profit = RM260 x 3.6 / 2.6 = RM360 mil

less some interest expenses of lets say RM20 mil per annum, and others losses, maybe RM300 mil net profit

based on 550 mil shares, EPS 55 sen

10 timers PER = RM5.50



Posted by qqq3 > Jan 16, 2019 11:00 AM | Report Abuse

All the way down from $ 1.80 I don't feel comfortable. When they announced the last results, I still feeling uncomfortable......It is only after reading Icon last article on Jaks and further thinking by me....every thing becomes clear in my mind....every thing makes sense......my conclusion......no stock offers more clarity than Jaks for 3 months money, 12 months money.........

so the subsidiary will report 50 mil loss at Pre Tax level, but there will be 25 mil positive adjustment at minority interest level

they own 50% of the subsidiary that is hit by the RM50 mil BG

dinosaur finally learning to walk

my cost 618

uncle koon's exit is a damn good thing on hind sight

remove a big stone hanging over the head

he has three lorries of warrants mah

plus he must have accumulated a big block during 45 sen

for the first time in many years, management interest finally align with shareholders' interest

if you don't have the wisdom to see beyond this 25 mil BG loss (50% owned), you shouldn't even be here

go punt maybank

maybe

newbie8080 So for this quarter result have to incur loss of the RM50 mil guarantee to TheStar?
16/01/2019 10:11

we are taking about maths here, not some abstract sixth sense, seventh sense

or sixth seventh sense (67 sense)

you laugh now, but five years later you come back and look at it, maybe it can happen

if earning RM200 mil, then we upgrade TP to RM4.00

this stock ok already lah

discharged from ICU

now can fly auto pilot

put it aside, come back harvest when it hits RM2.00 (RM1 bil market cap, backed by RM100 mil earning)

LCT, a large consumer of naphtha at c.2-2.3m MTPA would be a significant beneficiary of depressed crude oil prices, in our view.

We expect product spread to improve as naphtha and ethylene prices have dropped in tandem; this is positive for its profit margins as PU at its Indonesian ops is also ramping up.

We estimate that for every US$10/mt drop in average naphtha price would rake in savings of c.US$23m in feedstock costs.

We reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with an unchanged SOP-derived TP of RM7.25. We believe prolonged lower oil price is a key catalyst to the stock price.

Key beneficiary of low crude prices

The plunge in crude oil price has sent naphtha prices lower; naphtha price is now at c.US$500/mt, over 20% lower than 3Q18 average price of US$680/mt. We believe LCT is a key winner in the current low crude price scenario; its annual consumption of c.2-2.3m MTPA of naphtha (produced mainly from crude oil) as its main production feedstock accounts for c.50-70% of total operating cost.

RM18m savings for each US$10/mt drop in naphtha

Prior to 2018, LCT consumes 2m MTPA of naphtha, on average. With the new TE3 plant (began operation at end 2017), LCT now consumes c.2.3m MTPA (Table 1). We estimate that every US$10/mt drop in average naphtha price could net annual savings of US$23m (RM92m @ RM4/US$) in feedstock cost. Assuming it retains 20% of the savings (from being passed on to buyer), LCT’s could add c.RM18m in gross profits or +1.5%.

Ethylene-PE spread widened

The plunge in ethylene price has widened the ethylene-PE spread to c.US$300/mt (Chart 2). We expect the PU at LCT’s Indonesia plants to improve as management noted PU was kept low at c.70% during unfavourable ethylene-PE spread market.

Maintaining utilisation rate

Its 9M18 PU stood at 84% (9M17: 69%), slightly below the guidance of 85% for 2018. Management noted that the TE3 plant is currently under a 3-month general maintenance shutdown and would resume by Jan 2019. Still, management believes it is on track to achieve its target as other downstream plants will be running as normal.

Reiterate BUY call, undemanding valuation

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged SOP-derived TP of RM7.25. We note that the stock currently trades at undemanding multiple of 9.3x FY18 ex-cash P/E before easing to 8.1x in FY19. We believe prolonged lower oil price is a key catalyst to share price.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 27 Nov 2018

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/48458.jsp

coming Q profit supposed to be good as naphtha raw material price has come down

its business model different from petchem

Petchem relies on natural gas, LCTitan uses naphtha

something like that... I also don't know details... agak agak only

I put my money where my mouth is

bought some warrants at 15 sen

oh my god 500 mil market cap RM2 mil net profit per quarter

there is always something happening in this world

very cost conscious

or maybe you can try average down buying

yes, below the calm surface there is a torrent of buying interest

somebody is accumulating

you need to better control your emotion

otherwise you can't make rational decision

pause a while and think the whole thing through : where are we now ? what is the likelihood of no deal Brexit ? what is the latest development ? pointing towards what direction ?

put all these points down on a piece of paper

then you will know better where you are

relaxed, don't panic

the whole thing is heading towards the right direction

Late already， Go to bed lah, your Wife waiting for you ...

Insas will rock when inari is hot

Past two years showed that is the case

We are just two weeks into the new year, hartalega and TOP gloves has already corrected by quite a lot. During the past five years, aided by weak RM that boost profitability , the gloves stocks enjoy PE multiple expansion. Going forward, they can only rely on earning growth. If earnings momentum weakens (let's say due to stronger RM) , will the stocks continue to deliver the kind of return that you enjoyed from 2014 to 2018 ?

What about Nestle ? Can its PE multiple expand another round to reach 100 times ?

The way I see it, your portfolio might not be as defensive as you think it is

But the problem is that this is achieved through stretched valuation with Nestle at 50 times PER, hartalega and Top glove at 30 something times PER

by entering your next five years at such lofty valuation , what is the chance that you can achieve similar level of return ?

That day I did a quick calculation of your portfolio return. Over five years, it generated capital gain of 80%. Plus the dividend of let's say 20%, you probably have 100% over five years. Translates into 15% per annum

I don't have FB

can hold until 4.50 (or 5.00)

As Long as got exposure is ok

Son and mum both ok



Posted by smartly > Jan 15, 2019 06:36 PM | Report Abuse

keep mum. sell son. not too bad also mah.

anyway it is your choice

come back visit us when you free

our door always open

wrong

this kind of mentality too passive

you are leaving the table when the host is serving the Roast Turkey

how smart can that be ?



Posted by smartly > Jan 15, 2019 06:28 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 15, 2019 06:18 PM | Report Abuse

what happens if it goes to RM1.00 ?

never mind....i earned my portion, let other people earn their portion lah when it hit RM1.00.

sit tight buddy

this one could be a Ferrari

I am not joking. All this got maths to count one, not simply say


Posted by deMusangking > Jan 15, 2019 06:21 PM | Report Abuse

if it goes to RM1.00 ?
then i will go ahmoiing non stop!!!!!!

hahaha

MACD crosses zero line

what happens if it goes to RM1.00 ?


Posted by smartly > Jan 15, 2019 04:59 PM | Report Abuse

sold liao @ 31sen. TQ jaks-wb !!!