Koon Yew Yin's golden rule:

The company must be able to make more money this year than last year by looking at its profit for the last few quarters and provided it is still selling at a reasonable P/E ratio. For most cases I consider P/E 10 is cheap enough or acceptable. But for leaders of the industries, I am willing to buy at a higher P/E ratio.

AA qualifies.

Even if everybody agrees to freeze oil production after the cuts in the USA, the problem will not be solved. World oil production must be cut. Can do or not? Also remember that demand for oil is dropping due to bad times in many places, higher efficiency, improved technology ....

Prices will stay low.

Recent oil price recovery is just a dead cat bounce prompted by Russia and Saudi Arabia agreeing to freeze crude oil production conditionally. Nothing about how other Opec members feel sbout this. No suggestion either on how non-Opec nembers will respond. Current world oil supplies exceed demand by 2.5 million bpd although production in the USA has dropped substantially. Existing stocks are still at record levels. Iran and Iraq will be pumping more furuously than ever before after years of sanctions.

Expect failed or no talks this weekend and oil prices plunging again next week.

Kesian those who disembarked from the gravy train prematurely. However, can hop on again because the ride is far from over. IMHO.

The following are summary extracts from a report "Travel & Tourism - Economic Impact 2015 Malaysia". This macro view will give you an idea of how important this industry is to the country. The government can easily and should absorb the the costs of running this DCA department.

2015 ANNUAL RESEARCH: KEY FACTS 2015 forecast
GDP: DIRECT CONTRIBUTION
The direct contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP was MYR61.0bn (5.7% of total GDP) in 2014, and is forecast to rise by 5.6% in 2015, and to rise by 4.1% pa, from 2015-2025, to MYR95.9bn (5.8% of total GDP) in 2025.
GDP: TOTAL CONTRIBUTION
The total contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP was MYR161.0bn (14.9% of GDP) in 2014, and is forecast to rise by 5.3% in 2015, and to rise by 4.5% pa to MYR262.2bn (15.8% of GDP) in 2025.
EMPLOYMENT: DIRECT CONTRIBUTION
In 2014 Travel & Tourism directly supported 724,500 jobs (5.3% of total employment). This is expected to rise by 3.5% in 2015 and rise by 2.9% pa to 993,000 jobs (5.7% of total employment) in 2025.
EMPLOYMENT: TOTAL CONTRIBUTION
In 2014, the total contribution of Travel & Tourism to employment, including jobs indirectly supported by the industry, was 13.0% of total employment (1,770,000 jobs). This is expected to rise by 3.1% in 2015 to 1,824,000 jobs and rise by 3.2% pa to 2,489,000 jobs in 2025 (14.4% of total).
VISITOR EXPORTS
Visitor exports generated MYR74.0bn (8.6% of total exports) in 2014. This is forecast to grow by 5.8% in 2015, and grow by 3.5% pa, from 2015-2025, to MYR110.5bn in 2025 (8.7% of total).
INVESTMENT
Travel & Tourism investment in 2014 was MYR19.4bn, or 6.8% of total investment. It should rise by 5.3% in 2015, and rise by 6.3% pa over the next ten years to MYR37.7bn in 2025 (8.6% of total).
1All values are in constant 2014 prices & exchange rates
WORLD RANKING (OUT OF 184 COU

TF and KM are back, body and soul, and with fire in their bellies.

Hold AA like forever.

I don't worry about oil rebounding to 70. Some people wonder when it is dropping down to 25 and staying down for a long time. I think it is not going far from 40 either way for years to come and after that, it is going down.

When subscription of 559 million new shares is completed then upgrade to using PE of 9 to get TPs of $2.65 to $3.15 to reflect the dilution effect. Fair?

The implied adjusted net core profit forecasts will be $983 to $1,170 million after allowing for increased DCA fees as reported in the news to be absorbed. Applying a PE of 8 gives TPs of $2.83 to $3.36 based on current number of 2783 million shares.

If you read carefully, CIMB says $130 million "works out to about 10%-12% of its FY1718 group core net profit forecasts." That means FY17 & FY18 group core net profit forecasts are about $1,083 - $1,300 million.

What else do investors need to hear?

O.056% of group turnover doesn't sound too bad for the CEO of a conglomerate like BJCorp. But it is about time to let the loyal minority shareholders taste the sweet rewards of investing in corporation for so long.

Move some of the windfall profits from fuel savings to cover any DCA increases this FY instead of passing on to fliers and raise the ticket price by $2/pax each of the next 2 years. That should put enough heat on the other competitors while AA continues to turn out great profits.

But 2017 and 2018 coming soon ... in which year will the big correction happen?

After contemplating over the whole DCA raised fees hoohah today, I think it is just a red herring. For the price of a simple breakfast to have upgraded air navigation services equal to those in advanced countries that I did not know we do not enjoy. Let it be done. Could the MH370 event been averted with better services?

Bought back what I sold today with good profits. Added more to my holdings too. Shall continue tomorrow while prices are weak.

Don't be hasty. We can expect vollies of voices against the new charges. Even if there hasn't been an increase over last 40 years but why now?

If you care nothing for the tourism industry, at least do it gradually over several years. And not by so much. And look into Malaysian Airports Bhd management first.

Based on (Icon)AAX(3) published on 3 Apr 2016, AA's number of flights for the year 2015 is 167,002. The carriers are all A320s and the average flight distance was 1276Km or 793 nautical miles.

The biggest portion of DCA fees comes under the ANFC (air navigation flight charges) which has been increased from 10-25c to $1-$2.50 per nautical miles for A320 and A330 carriers.

The total flight distances flown was 132,432,586 nauticsl miles. We cannot put an accurate figure down for the ANFC fees because some flights are international and therefore the air navigation is split between different nations and charged differently. Assuming the fees are the same for convenience of cost estimation and assuming the lowest end of fee rates, the new ANFC will be $132.4 million (132,432,586 x $1).

The extra costs wil be nearly $120 million a year. Other DCA fees increases not taken into consideration. It will be horrendous if implemented.

My 1.88 blocked by hng33's 1.89.

EPF is a trader and Wellington is an exiting investor. I am a longer term investor. Sold 10% only this morning at the top to make some trading profit to cover short term opportunity costs. Strong floor at 1.80 but don't believe will drop that low. Will buy again near 1.88.

PPs of 10% or less are more expedient too, possible to wrap up in 2 weeks or so.

I think TF has done it the honourable way. A lowlife would have done it with a 10% PP with a 10% discount off the market price (which would be a manouvoured down VWAP) which doesn't require shareholders approval. He could also have placed it to one or several proxies to be distributed into the market, and repeat it the following year.

I am not complaining about what he has done so far. We are getting richer by the week and not even halfway there yet.

In spite of everybody's earlier expectations, the ride is still bumpy with potholes and difficult turns everywhere.

But every dog will have its day.

11m traded in first 30 mins. 39.45% buyers.

Ijust tried "Version 2" format n it is not a problem either. Also in the top left corner.

Click "yes" to the CIMB Research Disclaimer

Youkian, you must select 'version 1' format to log into. Once in, you can see "Research" in the brown bar at the Top Left corner of the screen display.

i3Investor may post the report in here soon.

youkian, if you have a trading account with CIMB, log into their online trading platform and you will find their report on AAB under "Research". If you do not have an account with CIMB, ask a friend who has to do you a favour downloading the file n pass on to you.

TF is upping his stakes and that is a very positive signal of AA's future financial performance. A significant section of the market already saw the picture before this subscription agreement and therefore a portion of this group is not enthused over the move because their shares' future entitlements will be diluted by 16.7%. However, since the future is not etched in stone however good the probability of that may appear now. Since TF is not getting a discount off the market price and because the market is divided over the immediate direction of the share price from here, you should be able to up your stake by increasing your holdings by 16.7% too to maintain your 'advantage position' in the market in the period before the EGM. After that, expect TF and funds to gobble up the free float up to a new price level.

If you are more bullish now, you should up by more than 16.7%.

If TF is increasing his stakes, great!

In the first 3 months of 2016, the net movement of money in KLSE by the FFs have been ... Jan -975.5m, Feb +433.2m, Mar +6,081.5m or cumulatively +RM5,539.2m.

The sharp appreciation of the Ringgit recently obviously owes a lot to the FFs return to KLSE especially in March. When the market becomes fully valued or when other markets offer better returns, these hot money will exit culminating in a bearish KLSE market and the Ringgit retreating unless there are other mitigating factors in play then.

I lament on our competitiveness and most of our industries falling behind others. What is going to hold up the Ringgit and our market going into the future.

I worry that it may be a passive investor coming in as a new shareholder injecting cash into the company for a substantial percentage of AA's equity via issue of new shares thereby diluting our holdings, future earnings and dividends. If it is not someone or group who can immediately add value through synergistic or whatever catalysts in a way that the worth of each unit of the enlarged equity base becomes greatly enhanced, then we, the existing shareholders, will lose out.

What can you do with additional cash? To retire parts of loans which AA has about RM12.6 billion ringing up RM630 million yearly interests at around 5%? Even if you have the money, retiring loans is not necessarily good practice unless there is a high possibility of runaway interest rates and depreciation of local currency against loans denominated in foreign currencies. If these concerns are stable then, to retire a RM1 of loans can only reduce yearly interest expenses by RM0.05 implying an increased market capitalisation of RM0.30 to RM0.60 only based on PE ratios of 6 to 12 depending on how you rate AA. Extrapolate that on a grand scale of fully retiring AA's loans means using RM12.6 billion cash to save RM630 million of yearly interest expenses. The ROE will sink like a stone.

To utilise cash to increase additional capacity to generate new revenues streams sounds better for AA. But is the air travel industry close to saturation in the existing regions that AA is operating in? Are there growth potential to venture into uncharted areas? Will the returns match existing investments or at least increase shareholders equity? There are hungry competitors already out there fighting for market shares.

I feel that at the moment, AA is doing just fine on her own and there is no need to court new shareholders to issue new shares to raise capital. better to raise capital via bonds if required.

Full day suspension plus weekend. Must be one hugh mama.

The request for suspension of trading tomorrow will be for something else.

First & Final Single Tier Dividend 4 sen single-tier system (T.E.)
31 Mar 2016, 18:27
Entitlement Amt (RM/%) RM 0.04
Entitlement Date & Time 30 May 2016, 04:00
Year/Period Ending/Ended on 31 Dec 2015
Ex-Date 26 May 2016
Payment Date 29 Jun 2016
Entitlement Description First and Final Single Tier Dividend of 4 sen per ordinary share of RM0.10
under the single-tier system which is tax exempt in the hands of the
shareholders pursuant to paragraph 12B of Schedule 6 of the Income Tax Act,
1967 for the financial year ended 31 December 2015 payable in cash
Remark The payment of this First and Final Single Tier Dividend of 4 sen per
ordinary share of RM0.10 as described above is subject to the shareholders'
approval at the forthcoming annual general meeting of AirAsia Berhad.
You are advised to read the entire contents of the announcement or attachment.
To read the entire contents of the announcement or attachment, please access
the Bursa website at http://www.bursamalaysia.com

4c Single tier Dividend

This counter is singing ...

"I'm nobody's child, I'm nobody's child
Just like a flower I'm growing wild
No mommy's kisses and no daddy's smile
Nobody wants me, I'm nobody's child"

12c Dividend; Ex Date 11 Apr 2016, Payment Date 29 Apr 2016.

Glorious fundamentals but mixed voodoo signals. Hard to trade. Sold some after lunch today thinking I could buy back later for daytrade profits but was a bad move. I shall continue buying since price is still low from the fundamental perspective while I still have reserves.

I think a little more sideway movement with mixed overtones before resumption of upward trajectory. Not that happy with the chart... looks more of a bearish harami to me.

But what a lucky break to be able to collect more below 1.80. Thought the bird had flown away. The long bearish candlestick of today is extended slightly below the support line of the recent up channel and there maybe some more downside. Good opportunity.

Looking at today's KLSE statistics, local institutions and retailers had net sales of RM242.3m and RM66.1m respectively whereas Foreign participants had net purchases of RM308.5m.

There is a good chance that EPF was the heavy seller of AA today being KLSE's most active trader. Just guessing ok, not bashing.

The harrowing sieve process. The smaller particles will fall through through.

I wonder why JDC did not make it a priority to preserve the pagan 'temples' and 'holy' sites in the development of Jeju Island? From where we are, we can't really comment on what should or not have been done there as we don't have the facts and are not familiar with local culture and social priorities. Are those in question noteworthy tourist attractions? Are they untouchable sacred places of worship deserving preservation of national order? Couldn't they be relocated to more convenient locations? How come they appear to be on private properties, therefore encroaching on land owner's private rights of ownership? Beats me especially when JDC is a statutory body tasked with overseeing development in Jeju. Perhaps it wasn't really an issue before it was turned into an one?

Privatisation should never a preferred option when a listed entity has a healthy and balanced market following for practical reasons. If the business has just come through a long rough period and is heading into better times ahead, then for ethical reasons.

You should only consider privatisating when the market seriously undervalues your stocks despite repeated zealous but fruitless publicity and promotional efforts to correct market perceptions. Or when shareholders are doggedly difficult snd unsupportive of your visions and business directions.

Listing a portion of the equity in another bigger bourse to reach a wider range of investors with capital looking for decent returns can provide a lift in the share price to boost your war chest.

When everything is going well, your listed flagship can be like a money printing machine or a doorway to free capital or low interests funds.

There are many other pros and cons to be listed but it is boring to go on.

But remember your shareholders who have a hand in making your dreams come true. Don't abandon them but bring them along the journey to greater success. Afterall, there is infinite wealth in the universe but fair weather never lasts forever.

I would imagine that the local boys avoided TF like a plague when they saw him approaching them last year during his darkest hours. Now they sulk because he has taken his business elsewhere.

Accumulation is probably done in splintered accounts under separate entities for the time being.

Our local IBs used to call high TPs when AA's price was sliding seemingly towards oblivion and have now turned meek as mice to call lower TPs, some even below trending market price. They can't feel the pulse of AA, hence are always behind the curve.

I think Everbright's real role is as a facilitator to make the whole deal succeed. Financial clout is the key to making this project work. I have not read any news yet but I would guess that TF's main thrust will include AA privatising AAX thus releasing cash to himself and an attempt to to privatise AA which will be difficult unless he pays the minoritties a premium. However even if privatisation of AA fails, TF will still come out winning because he would have garnered a lot of AA shares in the process and the value is increasing by big strides. Look at the volumes traded in 2016 alone, over 1 billion after the 2015Q4 results and over 700 million in Jan and Feb.

Are you shy of becoming rich, TP only 2.00?

It is a long weekend because both Good Friday and Easter Monday are public holidays in many places overseas. There weren't many FF managers at their terminals today. Impatient seller this afternoon is probably you know who.

Not to worry too much. Koreans are tough but fair and honourable people. Local partner of Berjaya is the Jeju Free International City Development Centre (JDC) which is a statutory agency established within South Korea's Ministry of Construction and Transportation, and JDC oversees the development of Jeju Island.

Berjaya Jeju Resort Ltd (BJR), the master developer for the development of 74.37 hectare land in Yerae-Dong, Seogwipo-Si, is an 81:19 joint venture between Berjaya Leisure (Cayman) Ltd and JDC. BJR is suing JDC. I am sure they are on good talking terms.

Their court will decide on what is fair for everybody.