i can only say u are bias, dont drag everything into politic. Lets think, if PKR won, petrol price down, thats mean our country are more burden into subsidy cost. Do you know our country are downgraded by FITCH recently? We need to lower down our debt level(be it household debt or national debt), we need to tighten our fiscal policy too. All these will lead to inflation but its unavoidable. Yes, short term its really hurt, but looking at long term perspective it might be a good things. and FYI i am not sided any parties, afterall we are all Malaysian

the cutting of subsidy or subsidy rationalization as claimed by Najib, is due to the fiscal deficy incurred by our country for so many years. Its inevitable issue, of course there are a lot of questions behind where our money has been used in an inappropriate way(which supposed to be used to grow the ecnonomy).

before we condemn, should we refer back to the fundamental of economic?

good one. thanks for the sharing

Hi KW,mind to share the story for cuscapi? thanks

@hk wong

I dont look at Bonia, but i can tell you seldom i see people inside BONIA store @ Pavillion, but of course it doesn't mean that its not doing well as there are other brands too like sembonia, braun buffel and etc. I think you can look at this guy's blog(http://www.intellecpoint.com/), he talks about bonia.. to be true i also learning by reading his blog...

As for Padini i think inventory and receivable is important, if ones is looking at MYEG, inventory could means nothing since its providing services? Ya i admit not everyone got the chance to pass by the store and see hows the store doing, but somehow this is my edge, likewise if someone is involving into property industry, steel industry, or whatsoever, they have their edge too because they know the industry better than others do..

Posted by wm83 > Aug 30, 2013 08:31 PM | Report Abuse

i guess you should look for a job where it's nearby sales office of the property company then :P

haha,maybe i try to buy one property then i can know better? haha, just kidding.. :p

Well, actually my purpose of posting is not to argue how good Padini is, i just want to give an example that its better to focus on both business and financial accounting in doing our investment analyst. However i think i might be able to answer you.

SO SUPPOSING THAT VINCCI STORE IS SO CROWDED AND SO MUST BE MAKING A LOT OF MONEY FOR PADINI. NO NEED TO LOOK AT THE MARKET VALUATION ALSO, JUST BUY?
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Of course buying into a excessive high PE company can be a disaster, you are actually buying into the so called "futuristic fundamental", betting the company can generate higher and higher earnings year on year to sustain the price/expectation.

1) ARE OTHER VINCCI STORES IN OTHER PLACES ALSO VERY CROWDED AND WITH EXPLOSIVE SALES?

As for VINCCI,other than stand-alone-store, there are store-within-store, (which we can see it inside Padini Concept Store), and franchise store(yes,if my memory serves me well). For sure i wouldn't able to go for every stores and other than Klang Valley ones, i went to Malacca one, which is doing quite well too because there is less competition there. Like what i said - "one good thing is, if you can do well in one place, probably you can redeploy your strategies to somewhere else". How can i gauge it? look at the revenue grow then we can know. The inventory level and receivable is managing well too(you can see it from the just released result).

2) DO THE SALES TRANSLATE INTO GOOD BOTTOM LINE? WHAT KIND OF MARGINS? GOOD RETURN ON CAPITALS?
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The margin is above 10 and its gradually increase except for the FY13 result, due higher OPEX as more store open. However, the debt level has dropped and the cash holding increase, which makes me believe the expansion plan is sustainable. I don know about the ROC, but for ROE, at least it stay above 20% consistently from 2008 to current, which is awesomely good.

3) CAN GOOD SALES LEADS TO LOSSES INSTEAD? WHY NOT?
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can be specified? Thanks


3) WHAT ABOUT OTHER STORES OR PRODUCTS OF PADINI? NOT AS WELL? SO HOW DO THEY AFFECT PADINI'S BOTTOM LINE?

Like i said, Padini Concept Store and Brand Outlet is doing good, especially for PCS. Inside PCS, there are VINCCI, VINCCI accessory, SEED, PDI, P&CO etc. Well, i couldn't tell you which brand did better than which brand, but as i noticed PCS attracted crowds too.


4) ASSUMING EVERYTHING IS GOOD. GOOD SALES, GOOD PROFITS ETC. WOULD YOU BUY ITS STOCK IF IT IS SELLING AT RM10 A PIECE? NO? THEN WHAT PRICE WOULD YOU WILLING TO PAY? HOW DO YOU COME TO YOUR CONCLUSIONS?
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RM10 a piece? In what valuation? i think needless i say u know it better than i when it comes to valuation. For the current PE of 13-14, i think its not too expensive or too cheap( i dono, i think so). However if we calculate PEG, its lesser than 1 as the 5 years CAGR is 15%, but wait! Investment is not science, and it is not about finding all answer for your questions? Assume its PE is more than the current one, but if ones is bullish on the company prospect, its still worth to buy. (of course if the PE is too excessive, its different story).

Another thing is, i have noticed that the stand-alone-store for VINCCI is doing extremely good. If not mistaken, VINCCI contributes the highest revenue for PADINI group. How do i know it? I walk by VINCCI store every weekdays as long as i go to work, i can see that the store is crowded, be it at Ferenheit or KLCC. Thats another way to look at its business.(Of course in Daiman case i dont know how, thats why i dont hold any property stock).

I think WM83 is bringing up the message in a clearer form(with proof and example). I learnt from my lesson by not too focusing on financial accounting is because investment is not a true science otherwise the accountant will be the m/billionaire(I learnt this through Kcchong by reading his post). Just an eaxmple, recently i am trying to look and re-look at Padini. The coming of foreign brand to Malaysia market might seriously give a strike to a local brand like Padini. We can see that Padini was once a fast growing company, but now it turns to be a medium/slow growth company, the profit is decreased due to margin erosion. However, i still think Padini can do well in a longer term for its brand value(look, this is the intangible asset/goodwill which one cannot find it on financial statement), management expertise(see how they develop their own outlet like Padini concept store/Brand outlet),their expansion plan(one good thing is, if you can do well in one place, probably you can redeploy your strategies to somewhere else), their management confidence(you might refer to the latest quarter report on company's prospect view). All these is valuable i think.

today window dressing, if u take today closing price as reference u might burn

Posted by penunggu > Aug 30, 2013 04:17 PM | Report Abuse

getting boring....zZZzzz ZZzzzzZZZ....aiseh, wasting my time...

same here. ciao first..

for sure haha.and now everyone is waiting for hafiz's pick.

its real exciting while you are the outsider. see how kc loh plays around. lol

lol. just a fresh pick, make it fair

hahaha, i never said im right or you are wrong. i just sharing my view which is a bit different from yours, so maybe we can learn from each other? I think i have bringing up the messages that i want to say.. afterall i am not an experience ones. Good to hear from your replies. Thanks.

Alright, sorry for the misunderstanding

@inwest

What i say doesnt related to timing at all.

I TALKED ABOUT GRAHAM NET NET VALUATION FOR DAIMAN. IT IS ONE OF THE STRATEGIES OF INVESTING. I DID TOUCH ON DAIMAN'S BUSINESS AND ITS PERFORMANCE. THAT IS ONE OF MY WAYS OF LOOKING AT IF A COMPANY IS WORTH INVESTING IN. AS YOU KNOW I HAVE MANY WAYS FOR DETERMINING IF A STOCK IS WORTH INVESTING OR NOT.
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No comment on this as i fully agree with you.


YOUR COMMENT IS GOOD BUT I WOULD LIKE TO HEAR YOUR VIEW AND PROCESS OF "look more at the business itself rather than focus too much in valuation or financial accounting" IN SELECTING A STOCK TO INVEST.
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When i first learnt to analyse a company, i look more on financial accounting, formulate my own spreadsheet and putting all the figure inside and analyse. However, when our market reached a new high this year, my stock is not performing! How come this will happen? Even a stock w/o net profit can perform better!I started to realise that i am living into a fantasy of how good the stock is without knowing too much about the company and its business. Then it urges me to change my philosophy. When it comes to the business, i would like to pick those business that is simple for me to understand and figure out what is the future planning of the company, competitors, is it operatiing in a niche market,if the product is same how does a company outshined the others? so and so...


SURE, MARKET SELDOM AGREE WITH ANYBODY'S VALUATION, NOT ONLY THE VIEW OF A NON-PROFESSIONAL LIKE ME, EVEN ANALYSTS AND INVESTMENT BANKERS. GO CHECK THE FAIR VALUES OF STOCKS GIVEN BY THEM AND SEE IF THE MARKET AGREE WITH THEM, THE PROFESSIONALS OR NOT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT IS YOUR PROCESS AND HOW DO YOU SELECT A STOCK TO INVEST IN? PLEASE SHARE.

There is nothing to talk about on the analyst TP/FV, as they change it very frequent so it can urges people to trade. My method in stock picking is more on bottom up approach, No matter how good the business i think i will always look at their past performance first. The little changes from now and before is i dont focus too much on it, i have been more compromised instead and i look more on the business nature and its prospect as i think we are buying for the future of the company. I ll be very happy if i can come out with a story which shows that i know the company very well.


IF YOU READ THROUGH MY WRITEUP YOU WOULD GET THE MESSAGE THAT I WOULD BE CONFIDENT TO HOLD THE SHARE BASED ON THE QUALITY OF ITS ASSETS; ITS HUGE HOLDING IN CASH, INVESTMENT PROPERTIES AND LAND HELD FOR PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT EVEN AT ITS BOOK VALUE. TO ME THESE PROPERTIES AND LAND COULD BE WELL ABOVE THE MARKET VALUE AND THEY GENERALLY DO NOT DEPRECIATE. EVEN AFTER IGNORING THE VALUE OF ITS OTHER ASSETS, ITS NTA IS STILL 40%+ ABOVE ITS MARKET PRICE NOW.
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You are right, but let me share my view on this. When the property price in ISKANDAR area is rising due to various factors, the share price of related stocks have doubled up because people are optimistic on the company. However, little do they know that there are some companies holding the huge landbank without doing anything for more than a decade(at least i read it from theedge weekly)! If a company is holding at lot of huge landbank but do not develop it, it creates no value for the shareholders i think. OF course theoritically you are holding something valuable, but i don't think the value will be realised(unless there is any catalyst). Thats why knowing the company future planning is important.

I PICK IT NOT BECAUSE "confident that earning will be increasing, rather than past performance or valuation" AS STATED BY YOU IF YOU RAD THROUGH MY WRITEUP. HOWEVER I DID TALK BRIEFLY ABOUT ITS BUSINESS PERFORMANCE AND CASH FLOWS. DO YOU SEE ANY PROBLEMS WITH DAIMAN'S BUSINESS.
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I have to confess that i don know property stock well, thats why i hold nil property stock in my portfolio


Afterall i am not disagree with you and i might be wrong too.

when the market crash, what makes you so confident to hold on the shares is your understanding of the business, the business prospect in which you confident that earning will be increasing, rather than past performance or valuation. Again, jz my worthless 2 cents

Well, i dont mean anything, i am grateful in fact for the true sharing from Kcchong, i am just sharing my view. nothing more.

what a great analysis, but again, my concern is one should look more at the business itself rather than focus too much in valuation or financial accounting coz the market might not just simply agree to your valuation. just my worthless 2 cents

@文耀

I would like to inform you that i have only 1 year experience in stock market. Just an illustration here for the book "One Up On Wallstreet" by Peter Lynch. If we split the companies in KLSE into 4 categories, slow growth, medium growth, high growth, and cyclical company. i would think we can give a slow growth company with single digit PE, a medium company PE range from 10 to 15?A high growth company with PE above 20? As for the cyclical one, it should be pegged somewhere between high growth and slow growth? However, this is just an illustation, there are a lot of factors which you might figure out, eg:the business prospect, the balance sheet, the cash flow, the PEG ratio(PE should not be higher than its growth rate) and etc. Someone might even want to factor in the marco/micro issues as well. Just an example, lets take hartalega for the purpose of discussion. If i am not mistaken HARTA has 5 years CAGR of above 20%, with its current PE of 20,its PEG is less than 1. which might be attractive although not that cheap, given its strong balance sheet, good cash flow, further up expansion plan and good management. However, one cannot depend on PE alone while making decision. Cheers

Operating profit before changes in working capital 149,088 159,364

Inventories 38,475 (30,178)
Receivables (2,334) (8,237)
Payables 10,499 (14,764)

Net cash generated from operations 195,728 106,185

As above
Well management on inventory as well as receivable. (less consignment sales?)

by that, with erosion of profit margin and new stores opening,

Cash and cash equivalents 206,226 137,612
Loans and borrowings 17,238 19,554
Loans and borrowings 18,726 31,219

more debts has been repaid and more cash in holding.

For this fiscal year, Padini is back on its “store expansion mode” to drive earnings further. There are five new stores in the pipeline (mixture of Concept Stores and Brands Outlets) to be opened in Langkawi, Miri and Seremban by 1HFY14F (vs. only 1 store in FY13). This is in addition to two new stores that were recently opened in Gurney Paragon.

despite the competition?
We understand from management that FY13’s same-storesales-growth (SSSG) for Concept Store was only 0.9% while Brands Outlet grew by 1%. Padini’s gross profit margin came in at 47% (vs. 48% in FY12).

WINGTAI RETAILING
(IN '000) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 CAGR(5YRS)
REVENUE 88,320 103,091 123,682 148,080 167,734 179,140 15.19%
GROWTH RATE(%) 16.724% 19.974% 19.726% 13.273% 6.800%

The above figure shown that wingtai retailing is only grow 6.8% from FY12 to FY13. As people worry that the intensified of competition will drag down padini, it posted 8.7% of growth in revenue. As per what the mangement mentioned above(comment above), i think its still very promising.


please noted that wingtai retailing hold 45% JV in uniqlo

if you are trying to time the market, you might end up doing nothing. for me i am never a good market timer, i buy on fundamental with good valuation. if ur timing good, u might as well think to trade.

17. Commentary on Prospect
While the 2013 financial year had seen a year-on-year decline of about 10.4% in the size of the Group’s Profits after tax, we continue to remain optimistic of the opportunities available within the domestic market. Though there have been doubts about our ability to compete effectively with the increased competition brought about by the recent arrival of several iconic foreign brands, we have always maintained that unlike them, our advantage lies in the fact that we serve a considerably larger spectrum of market segments and over a far wider geographical distribution of the segments themselves. Indeed given our focus and understanding of the sectors that we operate in, we are confident that our prospects remain vibrant.

telco doest give u cheap valuation too. i can see you are still lost in your direction, however if you still want to invest u have to figure it out urself

buying into blue chip stock doesn't secure your investment as most of the blue chips are high valuation. Dare you to buy in IHH for PE of 39? hehe

@kutty
yes provided u hold 1k shares

@文耀

my advice on u, dont be a lost sheep in stock market, know what u want, define ur investing objective, know the time frame of your investment. after that only started to sort out what stock u want to buy. Cheers

hahaha once again being ignored by someone. Well i guess thats how it should be. Words out from little man like me is worthless. haha. I think i rest my case here. GD luck for the followers. ADIOS

i never doubt on anyone in their investing way, but off market deal? You sure about that?haha

FYI LBS-WA total share traded @ 0.6 today is only 170,000. So i reckon you are not buying in today? hehe

thanks for your insights, altho market is on its way crashing

Not all countries are depend on export to spur their GDP growth,and US is one of the example. However as for Malaysia, we are still depending on net export, so its still very important for us, we cant compare with developed country in trade surplus/deficit.

good advice haha

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/08/27/Downtrend-in-crude-oil-prices-a-big-concern-for-national-oil-company.aspx

Agree with you Ryan, afterall MANC has their face on shit oh yeah haha

many people shout for bargain hunting priorly, but now then i wonder how many of them enter the market? or still pending for bottom out? hehe

alright,good price to accumulate indeed

good then, just in case u might been haunted by someone

i think you mean target price do you?

How do you gain ur FV of 5? just wonder

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/08/27/Downtrend-in-crude-oil-prices-a-big-concern-for-national-oil-company.aspx
look at this, big concern to O&G counters, especially the downstream?

OTB, you are good in TA, current market drops below 200EMA, it signifies strongly that the market is going long term downtrend, why must wait until 1685 afterall its a downtrend itself?

lol. dont argue here. alot of thread has been contaminated already.