http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/279357-mh370-sar-ops-must-follow-aviation-procedures-ex-md.html

thanks for your insights.

as when everything falls under expectation, everything might probably discounted into current share price?

"I still prefer the style I use in 2012 and 2013 and I am happy and comfortable with it"

Please be mind that when the market is bullish everyone can be genius. You might have to ask yourself whether your strategies work too when the market heading down? Well, i bring no offence, and with all due respect, i wish you all the best in future. After all, this is something many investors longed for. Good luck dude

basically it could mean something or nothing. lol

investing is not pure science, you dont fix yourself by following the formula

well said john, i believe you must be a prudent investor. Happy chinese new year to you in advance.

3 Price/Cash Flow

现金很多的公司，只能代表公司现金流动方面很安全，不易倒闭。但是无法显示出公司的价值。

One of the famous financial shenanigans in reporting, company can continue posting accounting profit without positive cash flow. There are a lot of ways where a company can boost up their accounting profit when doing financial reporting. Furthermore, p/cash flow is always a good way to track a company valuation. It will be greater if we use free cash flow as guidance. For instance, if you found a company which can generate very consistent FCF, with price/FCF ratio less than 3, i will say it is definitely very attractive. However, please be noted that in accounting, even cash flow can be manipulated.

just found out this, might worth to have a look

http://funda-investor.blogspot.sg/2014/01/hartalega-where-is-it-standing-now-in.html

Well, it is just my wild guess, it is better for one to find out their top 30 largest shareholders. it is more than 10M shares traded if i am not mistaken

well, when the share price drops more than 20%, with the tremendously high volume traded, do you know who are the one selling the mother shares? If you say CIMB,it sounds ridiculous. Do you think CIMB has so many shares? Even if it has, the share is mostly hold under nominees for certain client or under their fund management. Do you think they take their client's stock for granted?

some people blame on the political unrest, but is the timing right?

for me it doesn't make sense. Call warrant itself has high premium to secure the IB to win when they issue. Moreover, you do not know who hold the call warrant the most, do you? Ask yourself, what kind of consumer products you are selling which have its quarter earning drops more than 60%? Guys this is MLM company, whoever bought into this company, are you all clear on MLM business model?

can somebody tell me that this article sounds logic? lol

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-home-sales-approach-fastest-pace-since-2008-2013-12-24?link=sfmw_fb

by far this is the best posting from kcchongnz as for me. Understand your risk before investing into a company is important and in fact, spotting a financial shenanigans can be easy or can be hard and it is a bless that there are bloggers who wrote on it and now it is highlighted by kc. In investing sometimes i might be confident and reading more can curb my overconfidence. In the above example, i learnt that aside from financial statement, the actions of director as well as the corporate exercise of a company is equally important to help us in identifying a bad investment? Like myself, i am always aware and sometimes afraid to buy into a cheap valuation company? We often see people recommend some stocks which are traded in low pe, huge discount to NTA , or high DY which seems attractive? However, before one decides to buy, its worth to ponder hard whether that particular stock is a value buy or a value trap? I always believe price is driven by market and i dont think market is stupid to let a so called "undervalue" stock to remain undervalue especially with the advance of technology we can easily used the search engine to filter out the stocks with our own criterias. With that in mind i am lucky to avoid those stocks mentioned above, however it is not adequate. I might still trap in AMEDIA(i assumed) in which i love a stocks with solid growth on its revenue and earning? If i know to analyse a company by looking on their past corporate actions, the cash call alone will at least make me aware and probably avoid into it? Director selling their stakes after the cash call is very fishy and i think i will definitely avoid the stock. In fact, i do not mean that whatever stock that is undervalue is not a good investment( altho i always think that good stock doesn't come cheap), but one has to understand the reason behind. Yes it is not easy and most of the time i cant tell why a stock remain undervalued. If anyone still remember, one or two years back most of the property companies is remain undervalued, but once the Iskandar project is getting the limelight from most of the research house, earning a few baggers is easy if you took profit middle of this year. How about this year? Previously, everyone knew that furniture stocks are undervalue, but why is it so after so many years? and now it is being re-rated by the market? For me understand the business is important and when the situation turns in favor of the company(i merely refer to those cyclical industry), its more likely a value buy than a value trap. I am glad that i able to pick up latitud tree and i admit that luck is involved. Lastly i would like to thanks Kcchongnz and wish everyone of you merry Xmas.

sorry i mean i didnt buy.....

hi danchong, i hold a total different portfolio as compare to you. I hold buy any oil and gas related company, as well as construction. So far harta is my best performing stock..

sometimes*

danchong, like you, i am trying to build a solid portfolio, i love growth company, with positive future outlook and expansion, most of all i hope the company is well managed but something its a bit hard to identify it aside from financial part. Maybe you can share me your portfolio if you dont mind?

@whkwoon

As per what you said, currently the gov is trying to control the household debt which dampen the buying ability of properties, which current situation the earning of YOCB will be going down after another 2 years? lol. If it is true then it is not attractive for me lol

Hi, i am not from Ipoh, IPO for me stands for initial public offering LOL


"We have a chance to talk to the directors after the AGM, the MD was very happy that they are already making 'good' profit from the 16 Home's Harmony outlets and intend to open up more. If you look under section 30 page 81 in the 2013 annual report, the column under "Retailing" is the performance of Home's Harmony. RM27,013,000 RM2,748,000 in revenue and profit repestively.
It is significant increase from 2012 and I would agree with Mr. Chew that it is 'satisfactory'"

Well really appreciated for your sharing, can you share more about any discussions that have been gone through during AGM? Thanks



"The other regret I have is we cannot agree on the "earning quality of YOCB". "


Actually my meaning of earning quality is refer to the operating cash flow/net profit, which justify that a company is actually receiving money by not only having accounting profit. When a company posting good accounting profit but not receiving the cash(negative operating cash flow), it is something fishy. It will cause a company run out of cash and face liquidity problem. AS i can see, working capital of YOCB is not that good which cause its operating cash flow rather low in compare to net profit. YOCB is consistently paying dividend(if i am not wrong) and having a net cash position, so i assume it has no problem in liquidity? However, i haven go through their OCF/Net profit for pass few years, i shall do a detail analysis on it.

looking back on past performance, the solid growth achieved by YOCB is attracting, looking forward the company has actually acquired land and to expand their capacity to meet the increasing demand, it looks positive to me too. However, one has to understand that the industry of home linen products in malaysia is competitive. (if you happen to go to AEON you will know what i mean)In AEON, when you go to the specific department store, you can see yocb's brands, Akemi's and Windsir's there. Tell me what would you choose if lets say you are a new buyer? Most of the times i think it depends on the salesperson there. YOCB derives most of their revenue from all these premier stores rather than from its own outlets or instituition. In regards to FCF, i am ok if a company has -ve FCF as i think it is normal for small company like YOCB which is in expansion mode. However, if a company having negative operating cash flow,it raised my concern, especially when it lasts for many years. I have to admit that the earning quality of YOCB is not that good perhaps.

Japan will be hosting olympics and hence their demand for wooden products is raising

i have little knowledge on this industry, some but not much, i ll be glad if i even know what question to raise. Cheer and thanks to u

"consider the prospect of flbhd no lower than lat and home"

Mind to elaborate?

@brendonyeap

The gem is there, it is always there, and the market is always there for you to earn, nothing to regret. Try to have a look on long term perspective, if it attracts you, it is still a gem. just my 2 cents.

totally agree with haikeyila, insider trading is everywhere

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Dec 6, 2013 10:29 PM | Report Abuse

I cannot recommend a down trending stock. Correct or not ?
Thank you.


apparently mr ooi recommendation is focus on price? Since it is more on TA why still calculate IV? isn't it a bit contradict when mixing TA with FA? i thought both have different kind of philosophies? just saying..

well said sense maker

nice one, it reminds people to look back on what we are actually, after pursuing for something that we might even lost ourselves, and forgot that treasuring the present moment is important before it is too late. I remember that i have gone through some moment which exactly same as the person in this story, calculating the cash flow which i can get, putting it in future investment and calculate what i can achieve after 10 years. With that, i end up living a calculative live which make my live miserable.. everyday eating rm4 mix rice, want to order teh o ice to drink also need to think hard... it shouldn't be this way....life is short, we might not even know 如果还有明天...lol

quite surprising with the result?

@kotun

better ask youself afterall its your investment. Follow others will lead you to holland in most cases

nobody notices this share? it has been going up steadily throughout the year. hehe

@bsngpg

haha, too much information for me to digest now.. Thanks for your sharing. appreciated

@bsngpg

Why are you saying so? Could you please enlighten further? I believe "the demand for nitrile glove will be growing at 20% for the next 2 to 3 years" is just a projection which barring any unforeseen circumstances. I had been raising my queries to their IR and that is the figures provided by them as well.

@connie,

Before i buy into a glove company, i was wondering what is the industry cycle now for glove sector. As you know i bought into harta on this year, their business as well as share price has been growing so much from past few years,i am afraid that i am actually buying at the peak of the cylce or perhaps, decline. However, after i read the report i know that the demand for glove are growing at CAGR of 20% foe N years, and it will be going at this rate for the coming 2 to 3 years as claimed by the report. Demand for nitrite gloves are outgrowing rubber gloves every year. After i read the report(coincidentally with the outburst of bird flu), i remember i made my decision to buy harta in a short time, for me its obvious that harta is a better companies by comparing the ratio among the peers. highest profit margin, highest roe, consistent grow 20%+ on revenue and earning year on year(if my memories serve me well). I bought into it at PE of around 18, which is the highest among others during that time. I am ok with the valuation because good business don't come with cheap price(that's why i am aware when some people promoting some good stock but trading at low P/E),and PEG for harta is still below 1, so i reckon this is a good buy. Aside from the financial part, harta also focus on R&D which provides them with better operating efficiency(upcoming they will start to have automated machine to produce glove)and hence, higher margin.

@bsngpg

I am very willing to interact as well as learning from you. Hope we can generate consistent return year on year. Good luck to us.

@connie

Frankly say i cant remember i made any "sensible" comments on glove industry. I bought into harta on this year, and yes i read a report of glove industry, perhaps some information i retrieved from the report.

@Tankw

I admit reading books can help a lot in investment, but reading too much is not, at least for me. Different people will have different method and mindset when comes to investment. We dont have to learn everything, find out the one that work best for yourself, adopt it and monitor the result, if it works well, that will be good enough. I read quite some academic kind of investment books before, but i found out that investing by solely follow the books is not a good way, the books give me knowledge, but not the investing philosophy. I believe one with high level of education(lets say he/she got CFA), doesn't ensure to have higher return from stock market, same stock bought from two different people at same price might not yield the same return because of different philosophy. Personally i think Peter Lynch's ways of investment is so much comfortable for me.

irresistible, i love food. oh gosh

Eric wong, like you i am new, holding few counters and planning it for long term, what is the counters you are holding if you dont mind to share? Personally i think regardless of what method one is adopting, as long as he/she can still making money(of course at least beat the inflation+some premium to compensate the risk taken), it is still considered growing their funds in a better way.

i hope the company will spin off its property segment and plastic packaging segment

lol. i think they is no need for you to look down on yourself, at least you are experience and you have gone through the failure and mistakes which allow you to avoid it in your investment now. Coming years will be your years. cheer

Bsngpg, i see you also an experience investors having invested in bursa for many years, if you dont mind to share your experience during bull/bear market? hehe

when knm share price going up, please sell la.. cash out and invest in other counters, if you thought unrealized loss is not loss then you are wrong, opportunity cost is your biggest loss by holding a hopeless company..

而投资股票每年16%的复利增长

this is the problem lol, in bull market everyone can be genius, but in bear market, preserving your capital can be hard sometimes not to mention about capital appreciation. So if you want to have a long term CAGR of 16% in your capital, you must earn extra more during bull market, to offset the potential lost or nil return during bear market(unless you can earn even during bear market). Lets be realistic, this is not easy indeed. Try to ask yourself honestly, this year market has reached its all time high,we are in a bullish market so far, what is your total return YTD? If you are negative return, you might as well need to ponder on your own strategies, or whether you are suitable or not in doing share investment. If you can do well, can your strategies be working when the market turning bear? hehe. Please share la if you dont mind....

haven got any write-ups in your blog already started to promote it, hahaha. good on you, looking forwards to it. lol

when i first discovered and get interested into this stock, it is trading at rm5, i bought it when it was around 6.50. in fact i have no idea whether the price that i bought in is overvalue or not, but looking at the business side and the market expansion service report, i am attracted by it. Altho at first i am aware of the super low profit margin, but if DKSH can improve the profit margin(well, the profit margin for the 9 months current year indeed is higher than the 9 month last year), the profit will jump dramatically, and it is all depend on the operation efficiency and the bargaining power of DKSH, whether to the consumer or their clients. If you having a good network and expertise in the whole chain of market expansion, that means you are good, the competitors has no where to get near to your competence in short time. Emerging market is a fast growth market compared to developed country, everyone is rushing into this market, what they need is to find a good partner to help them develop and DKSH is known as the premium brand that can help them especially in FMCG and healthcare products. Barring any unforeseen financial crisis or economies melt down and etc etc, i believe DKSH can do well in the coming years too(well just guessing/betting on it). If consumer or healthcare company can do well, so can DKSH right? Indeed a good proxy for one to purchase a consumer stock into a not so high valuation(at least i perceived like this).

fair judgement robert love, good point indeed.

btw, i am just saying...