Agree acv. This plantation company is still under the radar of most investors. 3Q20 should be able to deliver more than 10 mil profit...more than double last year's result.

Well i'm not sure market was positive on the deal in the first place. The offer made by UEM was low at only 0.3x NTA. Share price did not go up from the announcement day. It actually went down.

Either way, the company has more than rm4 bil in unbilled sales and has been paring down their debt consistently year on year. Last quarter result of rm14 mil would actually go up to almost rm80mil if you exclude the one of rm65mil impairment (none recurruing).

Need to see the 2021 budget presentation to see if there will be any goodies for the property industry.

This is a gem. I think management is bad at promoting and adding value to the shareholders. They should have aggressively bought the share when it was trending downwards especially when EPF was selling. Long term profit should be between RM180m-220m. That is an 18% ROE based on the current share price. This is the best way to put use of the high cash reserve. Last big project they did was really bad (alloy wheel). All the profit and cash flow for MBMR actually comes from their 22.6% in Perodua (basically not from management effort). Surprisingly, Tabung Haji is buying. Good for them. Buy a lot then put pressure on management to pay higher dividend of do a share buy back exercise. Every year they ask permission for buy backs but never once they act on it. Disappointing.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/10/25/covid-19-vaccine-expected-to-be-secured-in-first-quarter-of-next-year

Some updates.

Not sure what to think of this merger with UEM. For me looks ok but the price offer is too low at only 0.3x NTA. Eventhough it is called a merger, I would look at it as if UEM Sunrise is buying EcoWld. The total value of the merger to EcoWld is actually 48 sens ( EcoWld can pay 2 sens dividend and the swap ratio would still be the same).

This has been done before when UEM Land "merge" with Sunrise Berhad back in 2010. The value put to Sunrise was RM2.80. The final agreement however provided minority of Sunrise to opt for cash (in the from of RCPS. basically deferred payment) in the same amount if they do not want to participate in the new merge entity. I would assume any final agreement between UEMSunrise and Ecowld would be in the same form as well.

FYI, when the final announcement was made though the share price of Sunrise actually went up a lot more that the offer price ( https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/sunrise-surges-278-proposed-merger ). Hope it will happen as well for Ecowld if the deal happens. If not, i am actually ok with it. Last quarter result, if you exclude the RM65mil impairment (i assume on Penang completed properties) the profit would have been around RM79mil instead of the reported RM14mil. Sales in the last quarter of FY20 is actually better than 3Q20.

The edge weekly has a report on the potential termination of the LLA with Felda. From my reading it seems that it is more positive for FGV rather than negative. Yes they would lose out on 350k ha of land (in the end they will only be left with 143k Ha). However, the cash compensation to be received from this cancellation is around RM4bil to RM 5bil (or RM1.10 to RM1.40 cash per share). This does not include the 68 mill located on the lease land. Each of the mills will cost an additional RM30 to RM50 mil or at least another RM2bil. This will total to around RM6bil to RM7 bil (or RM1.65 to RM1.90 per share) With this money, FGV can easily find better plantation lands than the one they currently have (or pay dividend also can).

There is another suggestion that a cheaper way to do this is actually by privatizing FGV. Since Felda already owns 33.7% of FGV. Even if they offer a RM1.50 ( more than 30% premium than current price), it would only cost them RM3.6bil which is only half of what they have to pay FGV to cancel the LLA. At RM1.50 i think most people will take it.

Am i missing something? This company looks a lot better than other plastic packaging companies. Valuation wise its the cheapest. No debt. I have both bpplas and tguan at the moment. But was just wondering why bpplas is trading at only 11x vs tguan 17x? Not complaining though. Just wish it could go up as fast as tguan.

oopps missed a link for the last litigation award. Here it is:

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3084856

Wondering why the share price has been trending up since may? Did some research and just notice that they had receive a lot of litigations award since then. Should be good for their balance sheet.

They actually already won a RM22mil compensation award due from the govt since Sept 2019. Not sure why they did not include this in their quarterly report. The longer the govt delay the payment the higher the amount will be since MTD is entitle to a 5% interest payment per annum.
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=2994561
There was no other announcement since, so i assume its just a waiting game. Govt payments are always long but they will pay or risk of being label a bad paymaster.

Around RM30 mil (including interest) from Gerbang Perdana was awarded to MTD back in June 2020. However the company now wants the 5% interest to be calculate since 2006 instead of 2009. Greedy but good for investor.
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3067177
No new announcement since July. For me the worst case is RM30mil.

This one is the easiest to collect. Court awarded RM19mil to MTD from SN Akmida back in Sept 2020 (so recent). This money is already held in an account under Alliance in the form of performance bond. SN akmida is trying to delay the release of payment. Should have a hearing back in 1st Oct but no announcement. So I assume SN akmida failed.

All in all the company should see litigation award amounting to RM70 mil in cash at least (the longer the higher the amount due to a late payment of 5% per annum). Sound little but given that the company market cap is only RM50mil, cash amount could potentially be higher than the market cap. Basically 30 sens per share hence i think why the recent rally for the past 4 month or so.

Hopefully the company can win more contracts with the Govt potentially going to table high value infrastructure project on 6th Nov. Normally during recession infra projects provide the highest multiplier affect to the economy (at least in theory)...

breakout from 3.95.. A very bullish technical signal. Basically now all that had bought earlier are already making money.

Top glove singapore did not fall that bad today..11% down..not a shareholder...just informing..good luck

https://sginvestors.io/sgx/stock/bva-top-glove/share-price-history

dake, should be pharmaniaga. it is currently the only company servicing the government.

Just wondering why is this stock still not yet classified as PN17? Shareholder equity value is already below 25% of share capital. Almost certain that their March 20 quarter result is another loss quarter. Jun 20 quarter would be a lot worst.

The price cap will affect the Financing Margin Ratio (FMR) calculation. For maybank, you need to maintain the FMR at below 60% or 0.6. If its exceed that amount u will need to reduce it back by either topping up more cash or sell the shares.

In general with maybank if u put rm100k FD in the bank, u are given a maximum trading limit of rm250k.

FMR =(Purchase outstanding - Fd value)/ share value

Example: u recently put rm100k in fd and decided to max out ur trading limit by buying rm250k worth of comfort shares at yesterday closing price. At the end of the day ur FMR are as below

Fmr =(250k - 100k)/ 250k = 0.6 which is the maximum limit that maybank gives u.

But now maybank decided to cap the price of comfort to 2.29 instead of the closing 3.75. This will affect ur "share value" which now is worth only (2.29/3.75)x250k =152.7k

So ur FMR is now = (250k -100k)/152.7k = 0.98 which is way above ur limit.

U will received a margin call by maybank to either top up or sell ur shares (rm250k will get u 66,667 shares of comfort @3.75).

Assuming today the share price does not move and will close at 3.75 again. U need to top up in order for the fmr to go back down to 0.6. When you top up your outstanding balance will go down. In order to bring the FMR down to 0.6, u need to clear at least rm58.4k of ur outstanding balance.

FMR = (250k -58.4k -100k )/152.7k = 0.6.

Another way is to sell ur shares. Based on this case rm250k will get u 66,667 shares of comfort at rm3.75 per share. In order to bring back the FMR to 0.6 assuming the share price did not change, u will need to sell a total of 24,579 shares at rm3.75. Or 37% of ur total shares.

FMR =(rm157.8k -rm100k)/ rm96.4k = 0.6

Notice that the denominator which is the share value also went down. In this example it is equal to the number of remaining shares multiply by the margin cap value

=(66,667 -24,579 ) x rm2.29 = rm96.4k


Hope thats clear. Good luck.

I also think the mentality of travelers would change after this if and when they decide to travel overseas. Most would likely prefer to pay a small premium for insurance in case anything happens when travelling in foreign countries. A lot of tourist got stuck in foreign countries during this pandemic with no recourse to aids (accommodation, additional spending funds etc).

Cheaper alternative if you want to bet on the revival of Air Asia. But have to look past 2020 i think. If in 2021 the company can deliver RM50 mil PAT (average RM55 mil for FY16 to FY19), at current valuation the company is only valued at 5.3x PE. Dividend yield would be around 7.5% ( company has a policy of paying at least 40% of profit).

If u guys want to look at the brent crude price. Better looked at the dated brent which is the price of the physical cargoes now (spot price). Last i check it was only $17 per barrel. Should be lower today.. the ice brent that u see in bloomberg are futures contract. Today bloomberg starts showing the futures brent for june delivery. Yesterday it was brent for may delivery. Hence why u see the sudden price increase today from $22 at yesterday closing to $25 at today opening. Oil did not go up. Just that the 2 contracts are price differently with longer tenure future having premium over shorter ones (contango market).

Most o&g project uses dated brent as reference (at least petronas does).

If u guys want to look at the brent crude price. Better looked at the dated brent which is the price of the physical cargoes now (spot price). Last i check it was only $17 per barrel. Should be lower today.. the ice brent that u see in bloomberg are futures contract. Today bloomberg starts showing the futures brent for june delivery. Yesterday it was brent for may delivery. Hence why u see the sudden price increase today from $22 at yesterday closing to $25 at today opening. Oil did not go up. Just that the 2 contracts are price differently with longer tenure future having premium over shorter ones (contango market).

Most o&g project uses dated brent as reference (at least petronas does).

If u guys want to look at the brent crude price. Better looked at the dated brent which is the price of the physical cargoes now (spot price). Last i check it was only $17 per barrel. Should be lower today.. the ice brent that u see in bloomberg are futures contract. Today bloomberg starts showing the futures brent for june delivery. Yesterday it was brent for may delivery. Hence why u see the sudden price increase today from $22 at yesterday closing to $25 at today opening. Oil did not go up. Just that the 2 contracts are price differently with longer tenure future having premium over shorter ones (contango market).

Most o&g project uses dated brent as reference (at least petronas does).

If u guys want to look at the brent crude price. Better looked at the dated brent which is the price of the physical cargoes now (spot price). Last i check it was only $17 per barrel. Should be lower today.. the ice brent that u see in bloomberg are futures contract. Today bloomberg starts showing the futures brent for june delivery. Yesterday it was brent for may delivery. Hence why u see the sudden price increase today from $22 at yesterday closing to $25 at today opening. Oil did not go up. Just that the 2 contracts are price differently with longer tenure future having premium over shorter ones (contango market).

Most o&g project uses dated brent as reference (at least petronas does).

If u guys want to look at the brent crude price. Better looked at the dated brent which is the price of the physical cargoes now. Last i check it was only $17 per barrel. Should be lower today.. the ice brent that u see in bloomberg are futures contract. Today bloomberg starts showing the futures brent for june delivery. Yesterday it was brent for may delivery. Hence why u see the sudden price increase today from $22 at yesterday closing to $25 at today opening. Oil did not go up. Just that the 2 contracts are price differently with longer tenure future having premium over shorter ones (contango market).

Most o&g project uses dated brent as reference (at least petronas does).

If u guys want to look at the brent crude price. Better looked at the dated brent which is the price of the physical cargoes now. Last i check it was only $17 per barrel. Should be lower today.. the ice brent that u see in bloomberg are futures contract. Today bloomberg starts showing the futures brent for june delivery. Yesterday it was brent for may delivery. Hence why u see the sudden price increase today from $22 at yesterday closing to $25 at today opening. Oil did not go up. Just that the 2 contracts are price differently with longer tenure future having premium over shorter ones (contango market).

Most o&g project uses dated brent as reference (at least petronas does).

If u guys want to look at the brent crude price. Better looked at the dated brent which is the price of the physical cargoes now. Last i check it was only $17 per barrel. Should be lower today.. the ice brent that u see in bloomberg are futures contract. Today bloomberg starts showing the futures brent for june delivery. Yesterday it was brent for may delivery. Hence why u see the sudden price increase today from $22 at yesterday closing to $25 at today opening. Oil did not go up. Just that the 2 contracts are price differently with longer tenure future having premium over shorter ones (contango market).

Most o&g project uses dated brent as reference (at least petronas does).

If u guys want to look at the brent crude price. Better looked at the dated brent which is the price of the physical cargoes now. Last i check it was only $17 per barrel. Should be lower today.. the ice brent that u see in bloomberg are futures contract. Today bloomberg starts showing the futures brent for june delivery. Yesterday it was brent for may delivery. Hence why u see the sudden price increase today from $22 at yesterday closing to $25 at today opening. Oil did not go up. Just that the 2 contracts are price differently with longer tenure future having premium over shorter ones (contango market).

Most o&g project uses dated brent as reference (at least petronas does).

Rizal, i think market is still in euphoria state after the massive stimulus announcement. Yesterday even energy industries in US was up by 1% even when oil price plummet. I think reality will sinknin fast especially those energy companies with high gearing. No way you can make enough money to service ur debt at this oil price level..

Damn...the saudis are crazy...need to see where oil will be in tomorrow when officially the production cut deal ends..

All oil majors will revised their capex downward if oil stays around $20 to $25 for an extended period. Come Wednesday, there will be no restriction on oil production by the Opec+. Expect oil to fall even further if its the case.

Service providers like Wah Seong will be the first to feel the affect of reduce capex spending.

Not going to be a good year for any refinery in Asia especially. Now they are losing money with every barrel they produce (refer to article below). Just be prepared for a bad quarter in 1H20.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/asian-refiners-profits-transpor...

Not going to be a good year for any refinery in Asia especially. Now they are losing money with every barrel they produce (refer to article below). Just be prepared for a bad quarter in 1H20.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/asian-refiners-profits-transport-fuels-fall-coronavirus-data

Not sure you can value Carimin using FY19 result anymore. Petronas will surely revised its capex spending if oil remains around $20. Malaysia is a lot worse given our oil is sweet crude which is use for jet fuel and gasoline. Now there is no demand for this type of oil. Nigeria are dumping their sweet crude at a discount of $8 vs Brent which is unheard of before. Good luck

90% of schools globally are closed. With Europe covid 19 cases increasing, you can expect Pelikan's main market to be depressed in the foreseeable future.

jeffrey, agree with you on this. Not sure if they will need to reimburse any of the cancel flights of AirAsia customers. Anyway with little flights from AA, they will most probably suffer as well in 1H20.

With oil price at around $20, i think we can safely assume FY20 would not be a good year for Velesto. At best it will be like FY16 when they recorded a core net loss of RM400mil (excluding impairment).

Not sure you can value dayang using FY19 result anymore. Petronas will surely revised its capex spending if oil remains around $20. Malaysia is a lot worse given our oil is sweet crude which is use for jet fuel and gasoline. Now there is no demand for this type of oil. Nigeria are dumping their sweet crude at a discount of $8 vs Brent which is unheard of before. Good luck.

jason, if economy falls into recession (which is likely) and the govt does not come up with a good stimulus plan to help business stay afloat, a lot of people will lose their job (if not already).

In time of crisis people will chose which obligation to pay first. If you were to chose between your house, your car or your credit card loan, most people would likely pay their house and car loan first. Credit card (and personal loan) will be the last given that it's unsecured. Worst that could happen is it will hit your credit rating.

If people start defaulting on their credit card obligation, the company has to classify that as bad debt which will hit on your P&L and balance sheet. Future cash flow will also be affected.

For the quarter ending Mac 16, when oil price averaged around $35pbl, the company recorded a core net loss of RM55mil (excluding the negative goodwill). We should expect that the losses to be higher if oil price maintain at around $20 especially when the cost of production (excluding finance and admin cost) is higher for Anasuria field ($22 pbl). For Sabah field its lower at around $15 pbl.

Agree AA will recover after the covid 19. But still it needs capital injection to survive. Fix cost like employees and airplane lease still need to be paid. Without any or just minimal revenue till 2Q, they have no choice but to seek for capital injection. If govt not willing to help then shareholders must be prepared to inject the capital. Don't think Tony can do it on his own.... I mean give the guy a break.

So if u buy this, just be prepared for a possible right issue exercise. Good luck.

Steven Chan of Kenanga seems to be confident that the contracts are "ironclad" in nature given that it's debt are all guaranteed by the clients.

But was that not the same for Armada? It's FPSO contract was abruptly canceled by Woodside Energy back in 2016 ( brent crude fell to around $27-28 per barrel). Now is worst with price heading to $20.

FPSO Abigail Joseph for example is for Nigeria. Last week, even though brent was trading at above $25 per barrel, Nigeria was selling their sweet crude oil for a discount of as high as $8 (around $13 per barrel). Basically they are selling it at their production cost (around $13 to $15) since no one really want sweet crude now. FYI, the production cost does not include other major cost like admin and finance costs. Would be higher if you were to include that as well.

So if Brent is at $20, will they be willing to sell their crude at below extraction cost? or will they just stop producing first? I guess we need to see if this low oil will stay for long or not.....

No analyst giving reports after oil fall? Curious to see how much they value this company...are the project still viable @ 20 dollar? Their client can still make money after this? Last time the issue was because of client cancelling contract. Now with price even lower, i think most would prefer not to pump if price is below cost..can the client cancel? How much was the compensation before when this happen?

No analyst giving reports after oil fall? Curious to see how much they value this company...are the project still viable @ 20 dollar? Worst still malaysia oil are mostly sweet crude..mainly to produce jet fuel and gasoline...now no demand...price should be a lot lower than brent. Right?

Just google dr lim yin chow

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.mmc.gov.my/images/contents/publications/2018/Press%2520Release%2520June%25202018%2520-%2520Dr.%2520Lim%2520Yin%2520Chow.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiv2NHeho7gAhVFpo8KHUdfAQQQFjABegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw3hSmpp0NWIBclVinVa_TIg

One word. Dodgy!

Be careful when buying into china based companies listed in bursa. Valuation always looks nice but sometimes u wonder y they even want to list here in malaysia instead of china or hong kong. Most people say because bursa is more relax in regulating them (no power to do anything. Most promoters live in mainland). Audit also hard to do. This company's auditor is BDO in malaysia. Company ops in china. Sometimes cannot do verification, just accept what management say. Especially when it comes to verifying cash balance. Cash super high, but never pay dividend. Not sure real or not.

I think most of the promoters start dumping their shares post ipo. The edge did a report on this last year. Try google it. Seems like bursa is just a place for them to dispose their shares to other investors without getting into too much legal problem.

Why buy this company? Sold their bottle business but what's left is not that great as well.

Mayb b4 u guys want to jump into this company do some research. Any companies manage to get out of the pn17 after bursa announce the delisting? If got then ok lah. But still need to study how they did that. If not, then u might be putting too much hope on perisai being able to do something others could not. I mean, bursa alread announce delisting. Cannot trade on 22 jan. Appeal decision 10 feb but only if perisai appeal with new plan. Uness they managed to come up w new regulation plan this week or maybe next week (bursa still need time to go through the plan), it is almost certain they will b delisted on 12 feb.

Choivo, why do you say the refinery margin is not important? Shouldn't it be the most important thing for the company's profit? I mean the refinery margin is what determine the gross profit margin right?

The way u say it, u think that the profit won't be affected even if the refinery margins go down. I'm not saying the retail business is not important but the biggest weight to the company profit should still be the refinery profit.

Why so pessimistic on this company? Result not that bad. Valuation not that expensive. Is there news or event that can super negatively affect the profit? If not, mayb all this is just sentiments..

Good news is it? Business recover already? Mayb some investors thinks that business can start its recovery with the chinese new year coming. Mayb chinese tourist number can go up? Hope so. Company got affected by the govt policy which anger the Chinese.

Aiseh.. Wrong company name. Sumatec sold Semua Shipping to Hoe Leong Corporation.. Not Lien Hoe..

If not mistaken sumatec went to pn17 becoz of debt from Semua Shipping. Then sold Semua Shipping to Lien Hoe Corporation. Come out from PN17. But reenter PN17 when it was reveal the sale of Semua Shipping was never completed. The singapore company only paid the deposit and never paid the rest of the proceed. So sumatec is stuck back w the debt from Semua Shipping and now even worst because the ships are all worn out and value drop like crazy.

But for perisai they need to come up w a new regulation plan in 1 month. If u think they can, then u shud just sai lang all the stock people sell later on monday.. But if u think not possible then u shud be the one selling ur stock to those that think its still possible. This is binary trade. No middle ground.

What cause the rally? Why people buying this stock? Saw dato ibrahim bought in 31 dec. He must be the one pushing up the price that day. Mmm either he really think its cheap or he is try to prevent a margin call. Some of his shares are under pledged acct. Most of the time that means its on margin.

Company still loss making and next quarter high chance also will b loss.

Or people just buy because its going up?