Catalysts to go up are there: 

(1) Operating cost is 88% of revenue. Out of it 1/3 is from fuel cost and 20% dropped may add additional 5 to 6 % net profit margin; and
(2) Company showing turnaround; 4 quarters of consecutive profits. Their absolute profits even better than Sealink;
(3) Debt level is shrinking via their internal generated cash flow; 
(4) Baltic dry index showing some positive indicator. 1 month ago is 900 and today is almost 1500 points;
(5) PN17 price & but not a PN17 co.;
(6) Study the chart and the price movement always start before announcement of results. See their chart for 1 year and u will know when to sell and buy.

Yesterday, they incorporated 2 subsidiaries this week. Is not something big but something is going on.

Qieen - God will definitely rewards those with patient and did their homework... I experienced it many times. In the meantime, i will continue to study AHB & Hubline as i found something interesting now

King of Stocks - U goreng IFCAMSC, i goreng MEGB & AAX for now to distract myself. Pls let us goreng Sona next week. Hubline should be good to goreng now.

Qieen - Ignored him long ago as he has habit of making "a horrible swallowing noise in his throat" in this forum like "Gollum" in the Lord of the Ring. Remember in the LOTR movie, Gollum cried out, "Thief, Thief, Thief! Baggins! We hates it, we hates it, we hates it forever!". I

If in his case he probably cried out, "Thief, Thief, Thief! Sona! Sona!! Hadian!! Frances!! We hates it, we hates it forever". Till now he has some grudges with Sona & Hadian or perhaps, Frances for whatever reasons (U can guess), so pls do not hate him. The best solution is to go on with your life and enjoy your weekends and treat him as non existence. Maybe, in the coming weeks he will said to everyone that Sona is "my precious, precious, precious".

Pisangkuat. Nowadays, if u order any frapuccino at Starbucks you can opt to add banana at cost of RM2.... i never tried before but i guess the taste should be good.

Noriz, the disposing process via a back to back arrangement... Is not a straight forward one.

I tell u some news but this maybe true & factual. If go up please thanks me and treat me "Prime Steakhouse" at Le Meridian, KL Sentral.

U know all know why SKPetro is keep going down and now their price worse than UMW O&G. The reasons partly were due to falling oil price but the main reason is one their major shareholder, Dato' Mokhzani Mahathir is disposing his interests via some arrangements so he can invest in Sona Petroleum. Despite that SKPetro got a cluster of oil field in addition to RM26.5 billion contracts but this is not so profitable due high petroleum tax to the govt as they can only make marginal profits due to falling oil price. Their production cost after tax is USD70/barrel and the margin is thin after considering Brent Crude oil per barrel is USD82/barrel. For Sona, their production cost is less than USD30/barrel and hence still highly profitable. Dato' Mokhzani really like this idea same as when he divested his interests in SKPetro so he can invested in Yinson.

Also, if i'm not wrong subsequently some sovereign funds are in process of getting approvals to invest in Sona as they believe of prospects in Sona going forward. They are huge and the placement will at premium to the market price. All these catalysts will definitely boost the market share of Sona. Cheers.

What story is that ....... Hahahahaaa. But great imagination ...

Hi ... Everyone very easy ...
I tell you whether the person is credible or not. If that person knows all the well-connected people in this field, that is like putting money into your pocket. You do not need to spend so much time in this forum talking, talking and talking and bull shitting in this forum and creating massive fear in this Sona forum. If i'm in his position and i have well-connected person in this O&G basically i'm busying making massive money now.

Can everyone agreed on my view?

Fauzan - Don't worry .. Step by step you can sell if you worry.

(i) Step 1 - Approval of the SC (anytime soon)
(ii) Step 2 - EGM (Sona) (1 month
(iii) Step 3 - EGM (Salamander)

Alex2012 - who is she?

Is 60 working days for your info. So will be more than 2 months
11 / 11/ 2014 will be a good estimate. Happy trading :)

Hi Guy/gals,

This is time charter for the SC's review process. For SPAC it will be the same as main market IPO / RTO:-

http://www.sc.com.my/client-charter/client-charter-performance-statistics/

Why should she angry. Basically, we paid her salary every month and indirectly all of us are her bossess. Even if she angry, she has no right to do so. That is what i call bad investor relation personnel

Nooniez, not yet. Once the SC's approval then only they come out with circular. From there we can see when the EGM

Let us make complaint to the directors as she was so rude to our Bro Michael

Michael Lee, I will complain for u when EGM coming.
Let us tell the directors how bad is their investor relation. U have any idea what is her name

Qieen - Just ignore. Ignorance is blessing in this case. Just take a break and have banana pie or banana ice cream. I had fried banana in caramel sauces in hotel months ago and it tastes good though... :)

Qieen - To add on for Luvluv's better clarification (which I already explained yesterday)

"The completion date may be extended to more than 28 days or other date as practicable after 1st Dec 2014 to complies with the conditions precedent. Bear in mind that, Salamander can only terminate the agreement by 1 Dec 2014, if they also comply with their condition i.e. Salamander shareholders' approvals. In this case unlikely as they will need all the necessary's approval from Sona before they can proceed.

The 1st Dec 2014 is not fixed. It can be extended"

Sona or Salamander won't be so silly to put a fixed one as they all know that the timing of the approval of the SC may unpredictable.

Pisangkuat... Yuck, so disgusting... I rather cook my curry with lobsters, abalone and salmon in addition to the normal ingredients. And if I do cook I will invite some Sona's supporters to tag along.. Yummy, I love mix and match. Also, if you really like Kangkung belacan I will order for you....

I guess you have your have own view whether to buy or not at this juncture. I do not need to tell on financial as u know better & this may be suffice to anwer your question to buy or not. But let make things clear, i never said that CIMB is not a good buy at current price. What i mean that what's your expected return for investing in equity market which will differ from each individual's perspective. If 25% gain (exlc. dividend) for the next 3 - 4 yrs able to satisfy u, go ahead and invest as this is long term stock. For me i prefer the small & high grow one as in long run i can achieve better return. Going forward, maybe turnaround in RBS Asian operations,
improvement in their Thai operation on political stability and delay in removal or smaller of cap of foreign holdings in Indon, good growth in islamic banking, sucesssful integration of co which maybe catalyst to the Group. And also nearer to completion of this mergers u may see some uptrend in this share. At the end, your choice

Kian.. Thanks for the remarks.
Basically, the winter and valuation attractive is not contradicting. Both are supportive view and the "winter" means that energy consumption may go up & this assumption may or may not stand. Certainly, we all have have our view on this matter but i can say to you that the dropping crude oil is not because only falling USD. It maybe because of ending of QE and hence hike in interest rate, shale and sand oil impacts, no mutual view of the OPEC members and also may due to some political reasons. Lots of reasons that we cannot understand even for the reputable hedge fund managers.

Christine - Lol ... I never critised them at 1st place. U just read again what i actually wrote. i actually telling everyone to do their thorough homework on any stocks they buy or to buy not merely believing the research report. Research report is good if you want to get the update but on valuation wise and timing you need to exercise your professional scepticism and utilise all your experiences and knowledge.

Christine - Actually on Zhulian,1 factor for the drastic dropped was due to political turmoil in Thailand but the one that the management did not clarified properly is why the Msian sale dropped as well. That raised my eyebrow on corporate governance practice in Zhulian. And price movement of Zhulian from RM3 to RM5 if i not mistaken only started 1 month prior to the announcement of the earnings shock. That was because all the analysts in IB were so bullish about the prospects of Zhulian & those retailers just blindy got caught by this. That is why i always tell people read the analysts' report with some pinches of salts. Take their report just to know the update of the co but concurrently do your homework as well. On their target price pls do some tweaking on their figures.

This also will be the same for the rest like SK Petro and Brahim. But for SK Petro i cannot deny now that their valuation is attractive (PE 13x and forward PE may reach 10x). The order book is huge about RM26.5 billion & they have cluster of oil fields. And oil price can change any time as winter is coming.....

Wow.. Harvard 57.. Sound impressive, i thought Harvard only have generic MBA programme without any specialisation but apparently now they have "MBA in Political Oil".... Maybe, during EGM, I will propose to the Board of Sona to appoint you as the advisor in respect of political oil. As to date, we have yet to become an O&G co.

In the meantime, please let us know any good update on the political scene pertaining to oil market. Cheers and good job

Guys/gals, can i get some credentials for our today's pilot. I suspect that he is not well-qualified yet. Hence, can we brain-storm to determine which candidates more suitable for this role.

My 1st criteria for them is they can navigate the plane high enough to avoid any obstacles (i.e. mountain, banana tree or godzilla)

Hi easy money, u can see my reply up there

Noriz, the completion date may be extended to more than 28 days or other date as practicable after 1st Dec 2014 to complies with the conditions precedent. Bear in mind that, Salamander can only terminate the agreement by 1 Dec 2014, if they also comply with their condition i.e. Salamander shareholders' approvals. In this case unlikely as they will need all the necessary's approval from Sona before they can proceed.

Noriz, the 1st Dec 2014 is not fixed. It is flexible. Kindly take note and dont create fear here

Hi Easy money not a concern and I will tell u why

Pisang - Dream dream..that is only what we have now. Dream is powerful and because of dream we have Microsoft, facebook, Alibaba and google

Qieen - Agreed this is a tricky counter. But at the same time this is a "silent killer". When you don't expect it to go up, it will go and vice-versa. That is why this stock for those that have holdings power (cash play) and not those via contra or share margin players.

Anyway, life as usual. Just enjoy trading on other stocks. This will distract you from seeing some negative comments on on this stock. Happy trading!!

Comments - Seem good. But need to understand how is prospects for Mah Sing going forward.

Hi Christine & Kian Leong. Appreciate such valuable inputs but in my view when we plan to invest in CIMB, we need to consider the followings:-

(1) Organic growth of CIMB Group? But apparently this maybe an issue to CIMB as their organic growth is quite stagnant. That is why numerous acquisitions been executed to facilitate the growth of CIMB. Also, that is why they planning to grow their islamic banking as their businesses are not growing if u stripped out their acquisition's growth;
(2) Prospects of the global economies - The corrections in Oct 2014 is the 1st signal of recession and as you understand the cycle of recession is coming. This will last at least 2 years before the recession will be over. During that period, the first to sell down is financial and banking stocks;
(3) Investment banking - This contributed 30% of CIMB Group's PBT. But when market is bad and hence, significantly lesser corporate proposals, this will turn into "black sheep" to their bottomline as cost to maintain investment bankers not cheap. This year and the next 2 years will be bad for them;
(4) Fallacy of mergers and acquisitions - Not all M&A will be an immediate success and this will take considerable long time. And if any recession, this will distrupt the mergers. Further, as the Acquirer they need to pay premium to the purchase consideration & will take long time before shareholders can reap the benefits.

My conclusion is whether the long term return is worthwhile for your stock holding period. If u hold more than 5 years and the return is 25%, do you still think is worthwhile. My view is if u want to go for banking go into small but high growth (in term of ROE) banks due to possibility of M&A. My reason is simple, our GDP is same as Spore but they have only 3 banks. Hence, my preference will be Bank Islam. Is all about risk and rewards and how you want to rebalance. Cheers

Catalysts to go up are there:

(1) Operating cost is 88% of revenue. Out of it 1/3 is from fuel cost and 20% dropped may add additional 5 to 6 % net profit margin; and
(2) Company showing turnaround; 4 quarters of consecutive profits;
(3) Debt level is shrinking via their internal generated cash flow;
(4) Baltic dry index showing some positive uptrend;

Hopefully this time can breach their resistance level of 7 cents

I make it simple again like the day before yesterday... will fly..
Alll the catalysts are there. Chart showing some good sign.

Clj Jun.. Check on TMC also. Trend good also...
This is how i can distract myself from thinking of Sona

Nooniez .. Diversify diversify..
Unless u think that u have not accumulate enough...

Christiano... QE ended already as US is showing robust economic growth till to date and announced by Janet Yellen. For now, seem like market will stabilise till year end. ECB and Japan have stimulus action and that will prevent from further deterioration. However, my concern will be on early 2015. Hence, I hope the SC will approve soonest possible

Hi Qieen. Definitely will support u on this.

Hi Ruslimz, To clarify on your previous point. I been in this Sona forum since long long ago & monitoring what others were saying. And like what i previous said I been buying and selling in Sona since IPO (the 1st one is my allocation via IPO). Some of us may not be the familiar names (Like u or TLTAN) since last time but that does mean that we are not in existence. I just came in recently as too many negativity and rumours affecting this counter.

Trigger should be glitter*

Quotes for the investors of Sona:-

(1) Buy at your own risk. Hence, do not blame anyone else if Sona does not go up as expected;
(2) High risk high return. However, risk can be managed via prudent and wise analysis of the co and entry price hence, the risk of Sona maybe lower; and
(3) Not all things that glitter is gold and not all gold glitters. If everyone using the same mentality to buy SPAC like Hibiscus, then all SPAC investors are rich by now as all the trends tend to repeat by itself. And if all is so easy, then i will just invest in SPAC and not companies with businesses. Also, i felt that Sona maybe a gold even at this stage it does not trigger.

Hope this will enlighten some of you. Cheers :)

Qieen - I'm not buying anymore on Sona or Sona-wa as I'm going on rules of diversification. Too much = Too stressful if not moving. Hence, i'm doing some rebalancing of my portfolio. Been buying BIMB-Wa since last week as their premium is consider very low for 9 years to expire warrants (i.e. 23.4% or 2.6%/year) and trading in MEGB shares. Will continue to hold tight while concentrating on others.

Pisangkuat - Thanks for the clarification but maybe we need to rationalise on this deal again and again. The feelings in Sona is same as MEGB when they are around 34 - 35 cents. And everyone keep saying "lousy counter", "sell, sell" or "i regret investing in this co". But MEGB have NA around RM0.60 mostly in properties and this give some sense of security & they are in the midst of turning around. Those believing in rumours & fear may just cut loss at 35 cents and now after 1 month they realised the share price now at 57 cents. Anyway, the ultimate decision depends on u and I don't think anyone can affect your investment decision.

Pisangkuat.. Gozilla.. Pisangkuat... Gozilla...
Are both you lost twin brothers or same person? Feeling "Deja-vu" when Pisangkuat posted as it almost same feelings like Gozilla

Ven Felix - We do not have "crystal ball" so no can predict the outcome. Notwithstanding that, this is still a good deal. If they can convinced the bank and the SC, no reason why Sona should reconsider amid 2 parties bidding for it. To begin with, i can said the banks (PNB Paribas & RHB), probably done their sensitivity analysis on oil prices and they still reckoned is a good deal. Tq

Hahaaa. Will fly. This time will be higher than before...

Sleep well. Keep all the energy for tomorrow and see the truth coming :)

Yes, all is time value. And for 9 years option, 23.4% premium is very low

Definitely the best performing Msian bank in term of topline and bottomline growth

Haahaa. Results month and both EPF and TH are accumulating the mother. When market is down first to sell is financial stocks but now is vice versa. Hopefully will go again to 65 and 70 and subsequently 80. Is good trading and at the same time for long duration investing..

From Black-Scholes model, this is definitely undervalue

Technically, for this few days look good. Based on TA 60min chart looks good ema all cross up. AND with coming catalyst on Chennai and results month. Hopefully, will be good as their engineering unit no longer bleeding


Chang, i will give Scomi a chance again. If not probably i will sell and go BIMB-Wa or other stocks

Hi Ruslimz. Read the link below. They said approval by 4th quarter but never mentioned when. Also, to add on they said the SC may approved within 2 to 4 months but hopefully they hope the SC can expedite.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/294571-update-sona-petroleum-expects-sc-approval-to-buy-salamander-oag-assets-in-4q.html