L. C. Chong

lcchong | Joined since 2011-08-23

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Stock

2013-08-19 09:47 | Report Abuse

NOTION – Q3 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1377309) on 15 Aug 2013

Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/19/notionfundamental-analysis-19-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/

I made some mistakes in extracting financial data from NOTION annual reports. The mistake caused wrong valuation in DCF. I have fixed the data in this analysis.

Stock

2013-08-08 20:30 | Report Abuse

I have no shared portfolio. I use excel and HLebroking portfolio to keep track.

Looks like a lot of things to key in to share portfolio online....

Stock

2013-08-08 15:08 | Report Abuse

Hi Tan KW, thank you very much ya. :D

Stock

2013-08-05 16:57 | Report Abuse

CCMDBIO – Q1 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1298933) on 27 May 2013

Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/ccmdbio-q1-2013.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/)

Although CCMDBIO is very rich with cash flow and very strong in generating cash flow from earnings, CCMDBIO loss momentum in earnings. It is less attractive as of now even if rich in cash flow. I will put CCMDBIO in Reserve List first.

Stock

2013-08-05 11:48 | Report Abuse

AEON – Q1 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1294617) on 22 May 2013

Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/aeon-q1-2013.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/)

My wife asked me to monitor this stock for her. She has 20000++ units of AEON at 3.98 (average price). Her fundamental analysis used from 2002 to 2005 was a lot of people shopped in Jaya Jusco if compare to Parkson and Metrojaya. Simple, but powerful analysis.

Stock

2013-07-31 14:52 | Report Abuse

HAIO – Q4 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1333169) on 26 Jun 2013

Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/haio-fye-2013-estimation.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/)

I have updated my previous analysis on HAIO to reflect my reason of buying HAIO. The reason is the directors were buying HAIO heavily. This shows that the management of the company got high confidence on company prospects.

Stock

2013-07-23 19:23 | Report Abuse

EPS QoQ growth is 8.7%. Not bad

Stock

2013-07-21 10:39 | Report Abuse

Two sources: Reuters and EquitiesTracker.

Sometimes, analysts' reports also tabulate the comparison.

General

2013-07-19 18:24 | Report Abuse

The reason I maintain ROE in my analysis is mainly for banks. The way banks treat cash flow is very different from other industries. In the past few years, negative FCF or Cash from Ops is quite common for banks. Also, banking industry is more towards huge asset-based industry. You can learn more from this book: The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing: Morningstar's Guide to Building Wealth and Winning in the Market

General

2013-07-19 18:04 | Report Abuse

Compare to ROE, ROIC is a much better alternative performance metric to find quality investments as it measures the return on all invested capital , including debt-financed capital. It is the effectiveness of the company’s employment of capital.

If you are able to calculate ROIC, then you further derive out CROIC (Cash Return On Invested Capital).

CROIC=[Free Cash Flow]/[Invested Capital]

CROIC shows how much free cash flow per dollar the business generates from invested capital. I find this to be the ultimate performance metric as it shows so clearly how effective management is and the strength of the business.

The higher the CROIC, the more cash the company is generating and it also indicates that the business is a profitable one. Rarely do you see a high CROIC but low or negative FCF.

SOme people suggests to replace Free Cash Flow with Owner Earnings. However, I yet to comprehend Owner Earnings.

General

2013-07-19 17:59 | Report Abuse

Here is how I calculate
ROIC=[NOPLAT]/([Invested Capital])

You can also use EBIT * (1-Tax) to replace [NOPLAT]

ROIC reference:
http://www.wikinvest.com/metric/Return_on_Invested_Capital_(ROIC)

Invested Capital =[Total Equity]+[Total Liabilities]-[Total Current Liabilities]-[Intangible Assets]-[Excess Cash]

Invested Capital references:
http://news.morningstar.com/classroom2/course.asp?docId=145095&page=9&CN=

For negative invested capital, http://simple-value-investing.com/blog/can-a-negative-return-on-invested-capital-roic-be-a-good-thing

To calculate Excess Cash:

Excess Cash=[Cash and Equivalents]-MAX(0,[Total Current Liabilities]-[Total Current Assets]+[Cash and Equivalents])

Excess Cash references:
http://classicvalueinvestors.com/i/2010/03/so-what-is-this-enterprise-value/
http://www.magicdiligence.com/how-to-use-excess-cash-2012-10
http://www.magicdiligence.com/articles/why-to-use-enterprise-value

There are various versions of calculating Invested Capital and Excess Cash. You can google for other version. I found that differences of ROIC from different versions are not significant.

General

2013-07-15 22:23 | Report Abuse

not really. :)

The reason I share my own studies is to find out the knowledge I don't know. I don't know what I don't know. By exchanging my studies, people sometimes can point out my mistakes, or exchange their knowledge with me. This is my passion.

General

2013-07-15 17:57 | Report Abuse

I just finished this book: Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, 5th Edition. This book is quite advanced, but it provides me alternate method in calculating free cash flow for banks.

The book suggests that we can use equity cash flow as alternate to free cash flow. There are few ways of calculating equity cash flow.

First

[Equity Cash Flow] = [Net Income] − [Changes of Equity] + [Other Comprehensive Income]

Net income represents the earnings theoretically available to shareholders after payment of all expenses, including those to depositors and debt holders. However, net income by itself is not cash flow. As a bank grows, it will need to increase its equity; otherwise, its ratio of debt plus deposits over equity would rise, which might cause regulators and customers to worry about the bank’s solvency. Increases in equity reduce equity cash flow, because they mean the bank is issuing more shares or setting aside earnings that could otherwise be paid out to shareholders. The last step in calculating equity cash flow is to add other comprehensive income, such as net unrealized gains and losses on certain equity and debt investments, hedging activities, adjustments to the minimum pension liability, and foreign-currency translation items. This cancels out any noncash adjustment to equity.

Second

Another way to calculate equity cash flow is to sum all cash paid to or received from shareholders, including cash changing hands as dividends, through share repurchases, and through new share issuances. Both calculations arrive at the same result. Note that equity cash flow is not the same as dividends paid out to shareholders, because share buybacks and issuance can also form a significant part of cash flow to and from equity.

Third

Of course, you can also calculate equity cash flow from the changes in all the balance sheet accounts. For example, equity cash flow for a bank equals net income plus the increase in deposits and reserves, less the increase in loans and investments, and so on.

Stock

2013-07-11 10:08 | Report Abuse

SYMLIFE – Q4 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1303181) on 29 May 2013

Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/symlife-q4-2013.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/)

Despite good recommendation from The Busy Weekly (http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/symlife-e8b584e6b187-introduction.pdf), SYMLIFE doesn’t meet my basic requirements (ROE, CROIC and leverage). Besides, there is no big boy looking at this counter. I will probably relook this counter after 1-2 years.