I agree with u babu. Y the price dropped to so low now was initially due to the rumour that there is possibility that the HSR project will b cancelled... so if it become reality then it can't drop again a second time.

So many people buy above 0.800 was bcoz they follow the wrong trend... they buy only when the price going up & sell (cut-loss) when the price going down. If they keep doing like this many times (again & again) they will surely lose money.

Currently SAPNRG has two types of trend: primary trend (medium/long term uptrend) & secondary trend (current short term downtrend or correction). The secondary trend happens within the primary trend. The secondary trend can change quickly from downtrend to up trend to downtrend again while the primary uptrend remains intact. We should start buying near the bottom of SAPNRG's secondary trend (current correction) so that we can ride its primary trend (medium to long term uptrend). Then when the price go up quite a bit later we should start selling b4 the price fall too much. Keep repeating this process to continue riding the primary uptrend.


May 27, 2018 01:46 PM | Report Abuse

Pmaster: Sometimes dun think too positive becos all the good news come out aldy to push rhe price from 0.40 -0.90 , now bk to below 0.70. I think bad news will come out soon to press down the price seem so many people buy above 0.80.

Agree with xiaoqing88.

May 26, 2018 06:52 PM | Report Abuse

xiaoqing88: this counter has the best practice on technical chart..chart is telling it gonna fly already.. for business point of view, i will buy the counter if it going to turn loss to profitable..instead of making profit already only chase high. thats it

The recent drop in price since PH won is just a correction of 17% due to many negative news about the RM1 trillion debt & corruption cases, resulting in negative market sentiment. The long term uptrend which started 2 months ago from 40 sen moving up to the current price of 69.5 sen is still intact (as long as the price don't drop below its 50 days moving average of 63.5 sen). Having sold all my SAPNRG's shares at above 72 sen (sold in stages from 84 sen to 72.5 sen), I have just bought back some at 70 sen yesterday. The price may drop a few more sen or up a few sen next week... it is hard to predict at this stage but the current price looks like a good re-entry price. The current price is very near the bottom of the uptrend support line which incidentally intersects the long time support level at 66.5 sen. Let's hope for the best.... have a nice week end!

Hahahaha!! Anwarfree18 is free to say anything he likes since the Anti-Fake News Act is technically non-functional (& going to b abolished soon).

@babu: On May 21 & 22, the Yeoh family bought 17 million shares, & on May 23 & 24 they bought another 13 million shares (altogether they bought 30 million shares on those 4 days). These should be able to counter EPF's recent sale of 40 million shares.

@babu: Yes, technically the company has not done share buy back (it has not used any of its RM11 billion fixed deposit for this purpose). At the moment, it is only the Yeoh family adding its shareholding. But since the Yeoh family controls more than 70 % of YTL, what is there to stop them from tapping a little of the RM11 billion fixed deposit to buy back shares should there be a need to do so? (I think this will b a last resort.)

Dividend will only be announced in the October QR (not this time).

As I see it, the real price value of the share should be between RM1.10 and RM1.32. The share buy back has just started a few days ago (more buy backs to follow). I think the share buy back has three purposes: 1. Prevent further irrational fall in price. 2. Prevent YTL from being kicked out of the KLCI. 3. Accumulate more shares for the Yeoh family.

WD40, please do not mix up my statement of YTL's accounting practice with investors' paper profit or loss. I did not say that an investor's paper loss is not a real loss, did I say that? I was only commenting on how accounting statements r done as compared to actual business operations on the ground.

Don't summarily assume that everyone who invested in YTL got stuck. It depends on their own objectives. If they r traders, i.e they buy with the intention to quickly sell for profit then they should have quickly cut-loss when the price dropped a certain percentage. If they r investors, i.e. they buy for long term (not intending to sell for quick profit) based on the fundamentals of the company then there is no reason for them to panic now. In your case, u sound like a trader (speculator)... then u better quickly sell all your shares & don't waste your time here.

Actually, YTL's businesses r all profitable.... bringing in total net profit of RM0.3 billion for Q3 & RM0.9 billion for the first 9 months. The Q3 RM407 million loss was due to RM776 million foreign currency translation loss (this is not an actual loss, it is only for accounting purpose only). The first 9 months RM301 million loss was due to RM1.5 billion foreign currency translation loss (not actual loss, only for accounting purpose only). As long as YTL did not bring the Singapore $ or UK Pound Sterling into Malaysia, it is actually making net profit of RM298 million for Q3 and RM903 million for the first 9 months. In practice, multinational companies like YTL never bring back their foreign earnings... they leave their foreign earnings in foreign countries for their business operations there.

As for the question on whether we should continue holding YTL shares or to sell it (or buy more)... a better indicator is to look at its TA. Currently, its RSI is 8% (grossly oversold) as reflected in its historically (5 years or more) lowest price. Its MACD histogram is below zero but curving upward (green histogram bars) which means the price is gearing up to rise soon. TA experts will tell u that this is the time to either hold a little longer (bcoz the price will go up soon) or to buy (if u haven't bought yet). But u have to decide for yourself & take your own risk. A lot depends on your current position & risk tolerance.

As for the RM301 million loss for the first 9 months.... it is due to very challenging economic conditions in Malaysia, Singapore and the U.K. (Brexit & collapse of U.K. property prices) in 2017 & 2018.

The share price is not just based on the earnings per share (or P/E ratio).... other factors also affect the share price, e.g. its NTA = RM1.32, and the quality of its assets e.g. YTL has RM11 billion in fixed deposit & almost RM1 billion in bank & cash (a total of RM12 billion in cash equivalent, giving it RM1.10 cash per share).

The QR result is not good but not too bad either. YTL had actually incurred total comprehensive loss of RM407 million for Q3, resulting in RM301 million loss for the first 9 months of current fiscal year.

No QR today? mayb tomorrow afternoon?

Dividend declaration not this time.... usually in October every year.

YTL already started buying back 17 million shares on May 21 & 22... . remember, they have RM12 billion of cash.

This morning the stock market so violent.... I think all the small fish also scared to buy already & many small fish also panic sell.

Hahahaha!! maybe! or perhaps they know something ahead of us.

Big shark playing also must have some good reasons for doing so.... they don't just simply play up the price for no reason.

Closed same price as yesterday RM1.01 .....looks like investors r holding onto YTL despite the market sell-down. Other counters closed mostly red, some dropped as much as 6 % or more. We will see what is going to happen tomorrow.

I have already thought that the HSR will be scrapped (or to be delayed 2 years++) in view of the huge debt (RM1 trillion). But if they decide to proceed with the project, then it would b a bonus to YTL.

@lazy: I can't tell u how long u should hold. It all depends on how much u r holding, how much u have lost while holding, how much capital u have & what is your objective (investing? or trading?), as well as how strong is your belief (conviction) in this counter based on your own research.

If the KLSE extend its losses for the next few days & the bear market is confirmed then we better sell those counters that have gone up very high already, don't buy anymore shares... just hold those solid counters like YTL & just wait... keep as much cash as possible.

And that is only a speculation by a third party.... not from the PH government.

The news is "could be subject to review".... not investigated (again, there is over exaggeration here).
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ytl-power-and-tenaga-fall-after-frost-sullivan-says-malaysia-ipps-could-be-subject-review

Yesterday's & today's price fall is due to KLSE turning bearish for several reasons such as the RM1 trillion Malaysia's debt, our economy left in a mess by BN, & foreign funds exiting Malaysia... it is not due to YTL in any bad financial position & most others stocks r falling as well. Just bcoz the price started falling & there r people calling YTL investors stupid.... think carefully, who is really stupid?

@Campion: The 60% revenue is from YTL's worldwide utilities (i.e. power generation, waste & sewage management, as well as wireless broadband), not from YTL Power alone. This is not a stupid statement, it is based on YTL's last year's annual report. Please go and read the annual report for yourself b4 calling other people stupid! I wonder who is stupid here? The one who merely quoted statements from YTL's annual report or the one who simply make false claims!?

Things not turning out as wished.... market broadly lower after Tun M announced our country's debt at RM1 trillion. As much as we wish the rebound to move straight up, in reality stock prices never move in a straight line..... it is usually up one day & down the next.

It's back to 1.03 now (after dropping 3 sen).... very likely it will hit 1.05 b4 3 p.m.

Or it can also go the opposite way.... like drop 3 sen & then up 5 sen (looks like this is happening now).

Judging from yesterday's price movement.... it moved up 8 sen (from 0.99 to 1.07) b4 it dropped back 4 sen, and this morning seems to have less momentum.... it is reasonable to see it moving up 4 sen, i.e reach 1.07 (but may drop back to 1.05). No guarantee on this one... just guessing only. Hard to make short term prediction.... but medium or long term for it to reach RM1.11 should not b a problem.

@ivan9511: No, it won't go up to RM2.00 .....don't set your hope too high (more like over exaggerating). At most it will only go up to RM1.37 (but that will take quite some time to reach).

If EPF put sell queue, then u will b able to detect very huge sell queue as well. But the sell queue today was not that huge (just normal ones).

Closed at RM1.03. Good show today! Could have been better if retail investors did not take small profits of a few cents. Hope tomorrow can reach RM1.11.

Looks like today no luck getting RM1.00 .... the price is already RM1.02 now.

EPF not dumping today. If EPF dumping, u can see huge sell volume like 200K++ each time. So far I see only retail investors buying & selling, and occasionally the BBs or sharks bought 100k++.

Whoah!! A lot of people Q buy at RM1.00 .... hope I can get it.

The price cannot stay below RM 1.11 for too long (bcoz that is YTL's cash reserve per share).... so if u want to buy b4 it reaches RM 1.11 still can buy now (it is RM 1.06 now).

No need special dividend.... the price move up to 1.10 today, 1.16 tomorrow & 1.22 on Wednesday is good enough already. QR may b out on Thursday (24 May 2018) afternoon. Better buy some b4 QR out & save some bullets for after QR.

@Campion: The HSR project is worth RM60 billion shared among 4 companies & YTL's share of the HSR project is roughly RM15 billion (not RM30 billion as u said). Anyway, if the HSR project is cancelled it does not mean YTL will lose RM15 billion.... the project has not started & not a single cent has been spent by YTL on that project, so how can they lose RM15 billion?

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/05/19/hsr-mrt-3-projects-may-be-reviewed/

People in this forum like to over exaggerate about YTL's potential losses... leading to unnecessary panic selling. Should put things in proper perspective.

@Campion: The Gemas project is only RM8.6 billion (not RM90 billion as u said) and YTL's share of 50% of the project is only RM4.3 billion.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/01/22/surprise-railway-win-for-ytl/

Please note that 65% of YTL's income is from utilities: power generation, waste & sewage management, and wireless broadband. Construction only contributes 0.8% of income while cement manufacturing contributes 17.5% of income.

Also note that 27% of YTL's income is from Malaysia, 44% of its income from Singapore, and 22% of its income from U.K.

Hope these information will put things in perspective regarding the HSR construction project.

I only say "it may show a loss of 200m".... it may only (it is only a guess) & that means if the "loss" does not happen then it will be profit instead. I am just trying not to give too much hope to people who reads my comment. My guess was based on last QR's 300+ million loss (so it may be reasonable that the loss may extend to this coming QR on 25 May 2018).

Another reason EPF is selling could b the upcoming QR which will b out on 25 May 2018 & it may show loss of 200 million or more.... but this has been factored into the recent price fall. Even with a possible loss of 200 million or more, the current price of RM0.990 is definitely grossly under-priced. But of course, it may drop a few more cents after the QR is out.... or it could shoot up in price even when QR show 200 million loss (just like what happened with SAPNRG... the price shot up immediately after QR out showing RM2 billion loss).

EPF is expert in market timing. EPF knows that retail investors & foreign funds will sell YTL bcoz of uncertainties with HSR & other mega construction projects. So they sell first to reduce eventual paper loss & they will buy back at very much lower prices to benefit from what I have just pointed out. There is no such thing as "if I am correct" bcoz I am correct.... what I have stated r facts based on YTL's previous financial report (u can check it out yourself).

If u consider all of YTL's assets & deduct all its liabilities (debts), its net asset per share is RM1.33 per share of which RM1.11 is in solid cash! So, if u buy at RM0.99 per share... it is just like u r getting RM1.11 of cash in exchange for your RM0.99 investment. Plus there is a possibility for your investment to appreciate in value to RM1.20++.

Don't forget, YTL has RM11.3 billion of fixed deposits with licensed banks & RM0.8 billion of bank & cash balances (total = RM12.1 billion of cash equivalents). That translates to RM1.11 of cash equivalents per share. There r only 2.47 billion of shares on free float. If YTL decides to buy up all the 2.47 billion of free float shares, what do u think will happen to the share price? What is 2.47 billion of shares compare to its RM12.1 billion of cash in hand?

Bought yesterday today up a bit.... hope will up some more; those waiting below RM1.00 will have to wait longer (strong support at RM1.02).