Memang benar 2008....Fcpo drop from Rm 4000 to Rm 1500 a drop of 62.5% loh!
That time min gaji in 2008 is only Rm 500 mah!
Now gaji Rm 1500 mah! To drop back by 62.5% gaji will need to drop back to Rm 563 mah!

Impossible loh...gaji will never drop back even to Rm 1200 loh!

Now coming back palmoil....if gaji cannot even drop back even to Rm 1200 in the next 5 yrs do u think palm oil can drop from Rm 7,400 to Rm 2761 meh ??

Impossible mah....even it drop back to Rm 4,000 it is quite difficult loh!

Thus must have logic by taking inflation into account mah!

Your father time 5 sen....can buy chicken rice....today u need rm 7.50....can chicken rice drop back to 5 sen per plate leh ?? Impossible mah!

Memang benar 2008....Fcpo drop from Rm 4000 to Rm 1500 a drop of 62.5% loh!
That time min gaji in 2008 is only Rm 500 mah!
Now gaji Rm 1500 mah! To drop back by 62.5% gaji will need to drop back to Rm 563 mah!

Impossible loh...gaji will never drop back even to Rm 1200 loh!

Now coming back palmoil....if gaji cannot even drop back even to Rm 1200 in the next 5 yrs do u think palm oil can drop from Rm 7,400 to Rm 2761 meh ??

Impossible mah....even it drop back to Rm 4,000 it is quite difficult loh!

Thus must have logic by taking inflation into account mah!

Your father time 5 sen....can buy chicken rice....today u need rm 7.50....can chicken rice drop back to 5 sen per plate leh ?? Impossible mah!

Remember Icap is not a work of art like mona lisa loh!

Even when there is less close end fund....that does not mean icap should be precious loh!

Icap will be very precious if it is well managed and outperform the mkt sustainably over many years loh!

However Icap failed to outperformed the mkt and for the past 3 years did even outperformed against fixed deposits mah!

Subur is a smaller cake for less people eat mah whereas Sime plant is bigger cake for more people eat mah!

Do not compare the absolute size of cake....but must compare to the relative size of people wanting and has the right to eat loh!

Something a smaller cake could be better if u had less people to share the cake mah!

Just remember the principle of LESS MEN MORE SHARE LOH!

Subur is a smaller cake for less people eat mah whereas Sime plant is bigger cake for more people eat mah!

Do not compare the absolute size of cake....but must compare to the relative size of people wanting and has the right to eat loh!

Something a smaller cake could be better if u had less people to share the cake mah!

Just remember the principle of LESS MEN MORE SHARE LOH!

No understand....boloh loh!


Basic maths mah!

U see Cpo Rm 2761.....as fair target next 5 years loh!
And min pay Rm 1500 inflation which up 100% over 10 years !
Chicken rice up 50% over 10 years mah!

Surely price of chicken rice & min pay inflation which up 50% to 100% will give the foundation to future fair cpo price support mah!

If u take target cpo price of Rm 2761 & the current CPO price now of rm 7400.....it is up 168% mah!

Certainly CPO price should be able to sustain above Rm 4000 easily considering current price of Rm 7400 loh!

If u considered the inflation rate of chicken rice of 50% and min pay rate of 100%, CPO should easily sustained between Rm 4142 to Rm 5522 over next 5 yrs loh!

This is the new order and new norm for CPO price considering inflation mah!
Palmoil is a good hedge against inflation loh!

Lu tau boh ?

Pakai common sense otak lah!

5 yrs time u think min salary will drop from Rm 1500 to Rm 700 meh ?

Cjicken rice will drop from rm 7.50 to Rm 5.00 meh ??

Unlikely mah!

The chances it will also up higher mah!

Thus Palmoil is likely to sustained above Rm 4000 loh!

Common sense mah!

Plantation can or good hedge agst inflation loh!

Lu tau boh ?

Pakai common sense otak lah!

5 yrs time u think min salary will drop from Rm 1500 to Rm 700 meh ?

Cjicken rice will drop from rm 7.50 to Rm 5.00 meh ??

Unlikely mah!

The chances it will also up higher mah!

Thus Palmoil is likely to sustained above Rm 4000 loh!

Common sense mah!

Plantation can or good hedge agst inflation loh!

Lu tau boh ?

Why not buy a plantation CO which have no existing ban leh ?

Common sense mah!

10 yrs ago min pay Rm 700....now min pay Rm 1500 mah!

10 years ago chicken rice Rm 5.00....now Rm 7.50 loh!

Surely inflation mah!

Thus palmoil above Rm 4000, very reasonable mah!

Common sense mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Common sense mah!

10 yrs ago min pay Rm 700....now min pay Rm 1500 mah!

10 years ago chicken rice Rm 5.00....now Rm 7.50 loh!

Surely inflation mah!

Thus palmoil above Rm 4000, very reasonable mah!

Common sense mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Look here loh!

Everything is up bcos of inflation mah!

Min salary 10 yrs ago Rm 700.....Today already Rm 1500 mah!

Thus CPO Rm 2760 as norm....no longer the same song mah!
Now CPO Rm 4000 will be the sustainable norm mah!

Lu tau boh !

Yes management quality not so good compare to KLK loh!

Rubbish loh....!
If u want to analyse & invest long term, U invest based on sustainable CPO prices of around Rm 4200 based on Pe 11x....irregardless the Plantation big or small loh!

If Co....pay good dividend yield say above 3.5% pa.....then increase its value rating to Pe 13.5x loh!

This way u ensure do not overpay & do not simply chase base on not sustainable earnings bcos of CPO price run up sky high mah

Rubbish loh....!
If u want to analyse & invest long term, U invest based on sustainable CPO prices of around Rm 4200 based on Pe 11x....irregardless the Plantation big or small loh!

If Co....pay good dividend yield say above 3.5% pa.....then increase its value rating to Pe 13.5x loh!

This way u ensure do not overpay & do not simply chase base on not sustainable earnings bcos of CPO price run up sky high mah!

Dear Kc,

Nice to hear u r back.
Your analysis on Palmoil stock are positive & bullish loh!

But Raider, like to highlight instead of using the latest qtr eps x 4.....raider like to suggest u look at the anomaly of exceptional one time earnings in the latest q4 result....net out and then multiply by 4....instead of adopting of heartedly figures reported in the Qtrly accounts.

Do not fall in the trap of ill advice KYY Mah!

Raider & Gang bought out Kuok Brothers loh!

Correctloh....!

Sifu Sslee...is a very kind & loving son mah!

Those who have great vision esp Mabel & Raider smell big opportunity to make profit here mah!

I say many times!
Plantation is a big inflation hedge

China should start developing their own commercial aircrafts together with Russia loh!

Forget about USA and Europeans Plane which are unreliable & go and buy own plane loh!

Just accumulate steadily loh!

The business model of UP refineries are very aggressive loh!

Never mind lah!

Just hold steady with Petron....it will perform mah!

This mike talk like sooohaiiiii loh!

Sifu Sslee is a great filal son.....that he loves his family & parent very much loh!

Do not listen to useless mike bad mouthing a great sifu & human being like sslee loh!

Mike is a skunk bags type of person , very evil loh!

Big opportunity loh!

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ coming loh!

Rubbish lah....why would Dap & Amanah abandoned their long time reliable friend for unreliable betrayal Bersatu leh ??

No logic mah!

kon counter own by fintec gang loh!

Be very careful mah!

Very sorry for u...in 2 mths time loh!

Posted by supersinginvestor > 9 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Ok all sold or dumped now i m leaving. Unket sifu>>>spits in utdplnt's face...
Bye

Most importantly got integrity problem as their management cannot be trusted mah!

Go & buy cleaner, better manage and dividend paying plantation much better & safer

Posted by qqq3333 > 6 minutes ago | Report Abuse

subur and Jtiasa are second and third rate companies. Both also no use.

Yes already technical PN17 mah!

Need to be like that mah, if not how to restructure their loans as lenders may refuse haircuts mah!

Yes 30% is a good start loh!

Some of my friends dedicate more than 50% of their funds to plantations, they told me right now only palmoil plantations sector can show consistent strength agst the world mkt economic turmoil that lead to inflation, currency collapse and business disruption mah!

Thus they are very comfortable allocating more than 50% of their assets to this sector mah!


Posted by soon2795 > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Hi, Calvin. I am a newbie investor here. How much do you think an investor should allocate their funds in palm oil sector? Is 30% enough? I don’t dare to go all out.

Thats good loh!
I forgot this loh!

The plantation beside harvesting their own FFB also buy FFB from outside planters for their CPO mill for crushing FFB to CPO loh!

Actually the refinery did not buy FFB....bcos this is for CPO mills own by their plantations....the refinery actually buy CPO to process for further value added products mah!

Thus although

Posted by Sardin > 9 hours ago | Report Abuse

@investor2021trading, does it irritate you? :)
@Stockraider, I've got the answer from AR page 95. For Unitata, 96% of FFB are from own estate. For UniFuji, 59% are from own palm oil mill.

Why raider Win 2 myv....u mean raider lost in netx meh ??

Pakai otak lah!

Think properly loh!

Correctloh!!!

Most of the time raider is lucky....bcos very well prepared loh!

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

Robert Kuok speculated on sugar futures in his early years and was lucky. With the big wealth from this lucky break, he has built his financial empire.

Peter Lim was involved in the restructuring and listing of Wilmar. He invested big amount into this company (including its derivatives) and he was lucky again, becoming very rich. With his huge fortune, he continues to multiply his wealth over the years.

When preparation meets opportunity, the lucky person is the one who is well prepared to pounced on the opportunity.

Not sida lah!

Raider just plain lucky to make 2 MV in Netx loh!

Steady loh!

But mickey mouse have no balls mah!

If u look at last yr result 2021...UP plantation makes Rm 457m and refinery profit is Rm 22m giving it an overall profit of Rm 478m per yr loh!

That means on the average plantation makes Rm 114m and refinery Rm 6m per qtr loh!

that means UP q1 2022 plantation performance is doing much better at Rm 169m whereas the refinery losses of Rm 92m fall far behind loh!

Things is likely reverse in the next qtr loh!

Looking at UP segmentation result....the plantation make Rm 169m profit whreas the refinery makes Rm 92m losses...giving it a profit of Rm 77m loh!

In future the refinery will turn into a profit....like the management say mah!

Then UP profit will be much higher loh!

Then people say refinery business lousy loh!

Not true loh! Refinery margin give a normal gross margin of 8% to 10% but can huge volume in sales.....having this gross margin....the refinery need to undertake....the selling price to end buyer loh!

With this extra 8% to 10% margin.....is it sufficient leh ??
Raider say it is sufficient loh!

Thus over the long run the long run the refinery will make good profit loh!

If u study refinery business alot of it is long term contract some exceeding more than 1 yrs loh!

Taking this into consideration....in order to secure the contract....the refinery will need to price by on long term contract price for between 6 mths to 1 yr loh!

But the raw material input can only be hedge base on cpo future contract about 3 mths.
Also the own plantation may act as a hedge by selling at acceptable fixed future price to the refinery loh!

As a result....in the case of raw material price keep going up....The refinery will suffer bcos...the selling price is fixed whereas its input price can only fixed within 3mths to 6mths!

Since Every refinery contract secure are future contract & its turnover are all mark against mkt....at the qtrly reporting dates eventhough it is still under work in progress....UP need to recognise potential gain or loss mah!

Thus in this scenario gain or losses is over exaggerated bcos the contract value can be very big & span over many qtrs loh!

For refinery the falling input prices will be highly profitable whereas the trend of increasing input prices will affect its margin, this is despite the company had hedge its input but not all exposure can be covered due to timing difference & the size and length of the contract mah!

U need understand the Revenue of Refinery are much more than the plantation revenue, meaning plantation generate sales rm 173m whereas refinery sales is Rm 465m loh!

The refinery revenue is 2.7x of plantation mah!

That means the refinery revenue is 2.7x bigger than plantation mah!

Furthermore plantation revenue are scattered n cover indonesia as well, thus it is likely not all the raw material use from own plantations, likely only 20% to 25% of the raw material use are source from own plantation loh!

Just buy 4 sen & below lah!

U would not be sorry loh!

It is revenge profit making time now mah!

Utd Plant is set up as a marathon runner champion & not a sprinter mah!

Thats why Utd employ all types of hedges to allow them to make sustained profit in the long run mah!

Correctloh...Bjcorp coming mah!

The success indicator is whenever 3i.....come & talk kok....u buy loh!

Do not worry lah!

The liquidation notice actually exert pressure on the bank to agree on the restructuring proposal mah!

This will expedite loh!

No worry mah!

No Need to Wait to Wait Lah!

The management advice the future qtr result will be better loh!
Utd Plant management honest & never bluff mah!

Posted by investor2021trading > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

after this lackadaisical QR n reported hedging losses, it better to wait longer after d 85 cents adjustment!

I think no loh!

Utd Plant is over aggressive in its hedging of its refinery division resulting a loss of Rm 225m on its hedging position mah!

This position will unwind in Q2 mah!

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 15 minutes ago | Report Abuse

This is likely to drag down most plantations stock tomorrow.