Uptrend is intact , gaining more traction n moving up steadily

The Teluk Intan by-election is a good opportunity for the voters to decide on
-Which candidate is better qualified to bring in changes that improves the economic wellbeing of the people and society at large.
-Which Party can indeed promote policies that "Bring people in Malaysia together rather than Drive them apart."
-Which political party fights for free, clean and fair elections be practised and be upheld at all times
-Which party fights for opportunities be given to all Malaysians with the ultimate objective of openly inviting willing participation, creating an environment for a society that respects the principles of justice, rule of law, democracy , civil liberties, empowers its citizens with knowledge and linguistic skills and getting the best and brightest talents to come forth, be entrepreneurial, working as a team to create employment opportunities , assume leadership roles, take charge, manage and influence the process which creates better opportunities for successive generations living in Malaysia.
-Which party is better in improving the general economic wellbeing of the younger generation in empowering and arming the young generation with knowledge and skill sets that improves their economic wellbeing , improves the competitive edge of the country in that process and eventually result in better quality of life, better employment opportunities for the young generation

The voters of Teluk Intan will have time up to May 31st 2014, to perform their fundamental analysis on both candidates and also evaluate and decide for the policies of the respective political parties that each candidate represents.

Censof is an asset light company. It's business model on GST & OBB will enable the company to earn ample cash flow from operations. TA indicators are signalling that it is good time to enter at current prices as further downside is limited. At current prices, the upside is much more than downside.

Once the resistance of 78 cents had been taken out convincingly, the run upward will be very good.

The new capacity expansion and new product investment will bear fruit in the medium term.

If the relevant party can add value to the business , it will be positive. Moreover the private placement will also help to reduce gearing and this is also positive.

The fundamentals for SILKHLD will improve as time progresses and that means increasing share price in the future

Look at this way. Hurdles to clear is good for share price to move UP especially hurdle prices are very close to current price level.

It is good tactic and you incur low risk to follow what the controlling shareholder do in buying back the shares.

Forward resistances to clear are
R1- 72.5 cents
R2- 74 cents
R3- 78 cents

Just monitor and decide for yourself as its your own money. Once 78 cents is taken out, it will be a good run.

sosfinance: Ride the trend UP.

SavvyOne: Thanks for the clarification. In the event that any company sells its treasury shares to a new investor, how will the sales of treasury shares be treated?

In this case the company will make an accounting profit whereas the treasury shares released through the sale will be added back to the equity capital. So the total number of equity shares will increase by the amount of treasury shares being sold by the company. Right?

In the event the new investor comes in and buys the treasury shares within the financial year, the EPS will reduce to reflect the sale of the new treasury shares to the new investor. Is that correct?

The EPS may reduce, stagnate or increase and it depends on the effect of the release of treasury shares back as equity capital on EPS versus the impact of the accounting profit on EPS.

SavvyOne: CIMB recommended a sell with TP=90 cents. Why are you so bullish? What is your intrinsic value of Benalec?

JT5774:4. I refer to your point 4 which is stated below

Point 4: When a Company spends its cash, its assets are reduced. This will cause the Return on Assets (ROA) to increase. Also, Return On Equity (ROE) is upped because there is less outstanding share floating in the market.

Wikipedia defines ROE = Net Income/Shareholder Equity

ROE can increase if Net income goes up if there is no change to total number of Equity shares
ROE can also increase if Total number of Equity shares are reduced whilst Net income stays the same

How can the ROE of Benalec increase when Benalec buys back its own shares? The total equity shares is still the same whether Benalec buys or other investor buy the shares.

The shareholder equity will be reduced ONLY if Benalec decides to cancel the treasury shares it had bought to reduce the total number of Equity shares. Assuming the Net income stays the same, cancelling the treasury shares will have the effect of increasing the ROE value.

Have Benalec cancelled any treasury shares todate?

hng33: We all know that excessive metal traces in water is hazardous to human heath. Do you honestly buy 100% what NST had just reported on the heavy and hazardous metal contents in the mining water?

The NST used to be a credible newspaper long time ago but not now as it had over the years done tremendous self harm unto itself and in that process destroyed their own credibility.

It takes two to tango and both State govt and the FED govt must share equal responsibility for this fiasco. As usual both are playing politics to the rakyat's detriment.

kcchongnz,
Thank you for taking the time to respond to my queries and I do appreciate your sincere and honest reply. I do now understand the basis of your decision on stock investment. It is a conservative approach based strictly on reported financial data and it goes a long way towards preservation of your capital. You would only buy a stock if there is a big margin of safety ie. current stock price is below the intrinsic value of the stock and the intrinsic value can be computed vide different intrinsic valuation methods. You will sell the stock if the current stock price is very near, at or above its intrinsic value.

The critical success factor in this approach is the determination of the intrinsic worth of a stock. I have look through your past articles and I get the uncanny feeling that it is more an art than a science to determine the intrinsic worth of a stock although the formulas are mathematical in nature. Looks like you had perfected the art of determining the intrinsic value of the stocks!! Heartiest congratulations to you!!

I am keen to learn from your experience and your art in determining the intrinsic value of a stock.Have you ever thought of organizing a 2 day training course for i3 members in KL on a weekend on the methodologies and the art of determining the Intrinsic Valuation of companies based on case study approach?

kcchongnz,
Thank you very much for the excellent advise which was supported by detailed financial data over the past 8 years. I am indeed impressed with your fine grasp of the data and your financial analytical mind.I totally concur with you that the past 5 years had been great for an investor of MFCB as it had delivered a compounded annual return of +18%.

Generally the past 5 years were indeed good years for stock investors especially those that had invested in early 2009 onward. The days of low hanging fruits easy for the picking may not recur in the foreseeable future as stock market valuations is at record highs in most places with the notable exception of China.

Let us now focus on the next 5 years for MFCB. Will the next 5 years be the same, much better or worse than the past 5 years average EPS of 29.72 cents/share say 30 cents per share?

Power contributed a significant 73.6% to MFCB Revenue and 69.5% to Pre Tax profit in 2013. Going forward key areas of concern,challenges are as follows :
-Can the two power plants (China and Sabah)Power continue to drive the Top and Bottom line growth and remain the major contributor to MFCB Revenue and Pretax profits
-What is the risk that the Sabah PPA may not be renewed or renewed on less favourable terms
-Can the other business divisions, Resources and Property, take up the slack and contribute more to offset the slack by power division if that happens
- Will there be other significant growth drivers to MFCB Revenue and Pretax profits for the next 5 years.
- Given that the FED is tapering, can interest rate remain at current levels over the next 5 years

The Cambodian rubber plantations and Laotian Dam project will require significant Capital Expenditure sum which if successfully implemented within the targeted time period( 2019 or after) will consume significant cash. What will be the eventual Project Investment cost? Can current cash and deposit sum of RM 156 million be adequate to fully fund these two large projects? If not how will MFCB fund these two projects? Most likely there will be cash calls and debt financing. Cash call will result in EPS dilution and Debt financing will reduce the Net profit figures and reduce EPS. When the EPS is diluted and reduced by additional expenses, the share price will drop as well.


So how do you see the next 5 years for MFCB as you are already an Investor? Would you concur that the next five years for MFCB (2015 to 2019) may indeed be very challenging for MFCB to significantly improve over its average EPS of 30 cents per share over the past 5 years? Can MFCB repeat its 18% compounded annual return over the next 5 years?

Coming back to Mr Koon's subject matter on IQ,EQ,MQ,BQ and his recommendation on what any person in this world need to succeed, different people, be it Mr Koon himself as an investor or the Managing Directors and/or controlling shareholders of public listed companies who delivers value to shareholders(although value varies with each company), are genetically endowed with certain traits and in their life journey had acquired relevant EQ,MQ,BQ skills which enabled them to be successful.

Looking from an investor perspective, what are the preferred rankings that you think is required for any Controlling shareholder cum/and Managing Director who are Key Decision maker/makers to drive superior returns in increasing the value of your chosen investment of any company that you had invested or plan to invest in?

How would you rank the four Qs and why do you rank it that way?

Capitalism in its true sense requires an intensive ,free, competitive business environment to harness the best and fittest to surface and to provide leadership, provide value goods and services for the benefit of the consumers at large.

The competitive environment would mould people endowed with reasonable IQ to develop and practise EQ,MQ and BQ.

In today's global business environment does capitalism truly exist? Will society at large be much better off with a true Capitalistic society? Is USA truly capitalistic or veering more towards Fascism?

Capitalism in its true sense requires an intensive ,free, competitive business environment to harness the best and fittest to surface and to provide leadership, provide value goods and services for the benefit of the consumers at large. Does capitalism truly exist in today's globalized business environment?

OTB,
Would you consider Tongher(stock code 5010) as a FA & TA candidate for your next investment?

kcchongnz: As you are an investor with MFCB, would you concur with the prevailing perception that despite all the positives, MFCB controlling shareholders and management can certainly deliver much more than what it had delivered over the past 5 years?

Do the controlling shareholders who are drivers of the company do really possess the achievement oriented and value creation mind-set to drive up the EPS value of MFCB over the next 5 years?

There is no absurdity in comparing two different companies in different business industries. All listed companies must report Revenue, EBIT, Net Profit, Cashflow etc. It all boils down to numbers. Each company has its own reported numbers.

The issue at hand is to scan the business environment to identify listed companies in different biz industries that can possibly deliver good investment returns over one's investment capital.

Having identified the companies, the investor will eventually decide on which company to invest in now that will deliver higher EPS growth, growing EPS value and consequently deliver higher share price value in the future.

That is the key decision for any investor to make as if one makes a not so good decision on any specific company to invest in there will be a real opportunity cost on ones invested capital over time.

So the bottom line for any investor is "What will be the return on my invested capital? What is the riskiness of my investment in a particular company?"

Mr Koon,
Will giving free warrants result in improving Earnings per Share of MFCB? It may possibly provide short term benefits/euphoria for some warrant shareholders but the consequent effect of free warrants will dilute the EPS. If that is so, will giving out the free warrants really enhance the share value and can the free warrants really drive up and sustain the rise in the share price of MFCB?

If the answer is no, then what will drive up the future value of MFCB EPS? The EPS of MFCB is 28.2 cents/share in 2009 and 33.2 cents/share in 2013. Over 5 years it had risen 17.73 %. Is this a fantastic performance over 5 years? If one compare MFCB with MBSB, MBSB EPS performance over the past 5 years is far more superior relative to MFCB.

You had stated that MFCB is very well managed with 4 main profit centres. It has a very good cash flow and cash rich. It has profit growth prospect which is the strongest catalyst for moving share price.
I am not a shareholder of MFCB and so I do not know the shareholders nor the company management.

As you are a shareholder of MFCB and had been in contact with them, would you concur with the prevailing perception that despite all the positives, MFCB controlling shareholders and management can certainly deliver much more than what it had delivered over the past 5 years? Somehow one do really question whether the controlling shareholders who are drivers of the company do really possess the hungry mind-set to drive up the EPS value of MFCB over the next 5 years or would the future EPS be just around current EPS figures?

It will be a fantastic opportunity for the controlling shareholders of MFCB to set KPI on EPS growth n targetted EPS value for the future years as they r in control n know the business very well. With this transparent objective MFCB will stand way above the rest in BURSA. Do u support this recommendation Mr Koon?

The sole objective of the controlling shareholders must be to increase the EPS thereby increasing the enterprise value over the future years. Better still, they set themselves KPI on increasing the EPS n announced it to All the shareholders.

What goes up will come down especially stocks that had exceeded its fair value or the stock prices had moved way beyond its fundamentals. The retailers who lacked personal discipline and who had speculated heavily and who lacked the basic stock investment cum financial risk management skills were slaughtered. They cannot blame anyone except themselves and hopefully for some they will relearn new value investment skills and regain their capital. It had happened numerous times since the stock market was created.

On restoring confidence, the relevant question should be "To regain Confidence, What are the Investment and Risk Management skills that an investor need to learn , acquire before investing in the stock market?"

Hahaha wondering who's hissing! Who is that poisonous snake!!

It is better to nibble than to take a big bite and inadvertently bite your tongue in that process...Hahaha

It is termed asset cum capital preservation. hahaha

Hahaha gibberish gibberish n more gibberish

Hahaha..u assumed too much tremendously n read too much to your views/own perception. If I were u , I will not be too opinionated and I shall keep to what I know and do not speculate nor assume on anything I do not know as eventually what u had assumed will boomerang unto you. You will not look good in the eyes of many and in the end you will acknowledge the fact to yourself eventually.

You hahaha too soon!! Just read my call

Hahaha..in relative motion it depends on where u r ..u may think u r going forward but in reality you could be going backward...so self praise ain't good praise unless u r benchmarked against an external neutral position.

AhMoi: "Self praise is No praise" but if one does feel good about it by all means praise thyself hahaha
It is a good opportunity to start to accumulate Mudajaya now

If your buy in price is high then it makes sense to sell and repurchase at lower price to reduce cost of purchase.

A Value investor would buy at lower bottom price range in stages and wait for the price breakout to occur and ride it out till it exceeds the fair value. Once fair value had been exceeded it will be useful to rely on the technical indicators to exit. You are more a trader than a value investor.

It had been meandering in a horizontal trend for the past 24 month. If one studies the horizontal trend, one should be buying near the lower bottom. If trend breaks out either way it will then trigger the sell decision either way. Now is the time to collect patiently.

Chart just reads and present the past info in certain formats . It does not predict the future info/events. It could possibly be manipulated as well. It is humans that attempt to use the past info to try to predict future price movement with certain degree of confidence but that is not 100% absolute certainty. Mudajaya had been range bound horizontally for the past 24 months and chartist will concur that it is difficult to predict specific clear trend emerging ie. uptrend or downtrend based on range bound past price info.

Reality will follow ones thinking and perception. If one thinks otherwise then it will be otherwise.

Opportunity to buy in slowly!!

AhMoi: On the contrary, this presents a buying opportunity but one must be patient!! Keep you spirits up...if u r heartbroken, u may miss the upcoming opportunity!!

It appears that there had been some digression off the subject matter raised by Mr Koon on the Less Visible Chinese Poor. The subject matter raised by Mr Koon in its every essence is related to FA(Fundamental analysis) on Leadership in any society and country.

The ultimate challenge and responsibility for any leader in any society or country is to Bring people together rather than drive them apart. This is the core measurement of Leadership competency in any society or country.

It is the paramount responsibility of Leaders in any society and country to ensure that Opportunities must be given to all irrespective of ethnicity, cultural background, food preferences, religious orientation, colour, creed, etc with the ultimate objective of openly inviting willing participation, creating an environment for a society that respects the principles of justice, rule of law, democracy , civil liberties, empowers its citizens with knowledge and linguistic skills and getting the best and brightest talents to come forth, be entrepreneurial, working as a team to create employment opportunities , assume leadership roles, take charge, manage and influence the process which creates better opportunities for every generation living in the society/country.

Societies and countries in this globalized world that practised the "Divide and Rule Policy" had regressed where the general economic wellbeing of the society, quality of life, employment opportunities deteriorates over time for societies/countries that practised such policies that eventually resulted in sub optimal results for that particular society/country and its people.

It is imperative that the citizens of any society and country perform their fundamental analysis of its Leaders/Aspiring Leaders and ask themselves honestly whether any candidate that offers themselves for office in any society and country has the mandatory competent skills to "Bring people together rather than Drive them apart".

The core investment decision ultimately is strictly based on fundamental analysis which leads to the conclusion that EPS growth of the company will increase positively over time. TA indicators may be a useful tool and guide for price entry but it may not be absolutely necessary condition for entry if one is convinced that the EPS will be phenomenal. Once one had taken a position , one must be very vigilant to monitor the company's strategic management of its business and its financial performance over time.

TA will be an excellent tool and guide for exit when the price had exceeded the fair value of the company.

Let us get down to the basic fundamentals for SILKHLD.

The Kajang Cheras road is the shortest in distance to KL but it is extremely congested and many of the daily commuters are diverting towards the Silk highway.The traffic in Silk highway will for sure increase with time in view of the mammoth projects by MKH and other developers in the Kajang vicinity and given time traffic in the Silk Highway for sure will increase significantly over time. Further rerating catalysts in medium term are:
- more than expected traffic usage in the Silk Highway
- OSV contracts with PETRONAS

The fundamentals for SILKHLD will get better and better over time

If one is confident in the business ability of the controlling shareholders of Miudajaya and in Mudajaya's management ability to deliver the goods in future then one should hold onto Mudajaya shares or take this opportunity of any price dip to buy some more.

This applies to any society or country in this globalized but rapidly shrinking society where cultures collide through the internet, smartphones...

Opportunities must be given to all irrespective of ethnicity, cultural background, food preferences, religious orientation, colour, creed, etc with the ultimate objective of openly inviting willing participation, creating an environment for a society that respects the principles of justice, rule of law, democracy , civil liberties, and getting the best and brightest talents to come forth, be entrepreneurial, working as a team to create employment opportunities , assume leadership roles, take charge, manage and influence the process which creates better opportunities for every generation living in the society/country.

The ultimate challenge and responsibility for any leader in any society or country is to Bring people together rather than drive them apart.

This inclusiveness approach creates far greater value against the "Divide and Rule Policy which is sub-optimal " as evidenced in all societies/countries that practised such "Divide and Rule Policy" in this globalised world where the quality of life, employment opportunities, the economic wellbeing of every generation deteriorates over time for societies/countries that practised such "divide and Rule Policies that had resulted in sub optimal returns for its people."

AhMoi: You are at liberty to decide on what to do with your Mudajaya shares. You decide whether you want to be a trader or a value investor. It is your choice. For Mudajaya I rather be a Value Investor than being a trader.

At current price level, it is a buy for a value investor and downside risk is limited but one must be prepared to hold beyond 2014. The TP varies with time so it depend on Potential re-rating catalysts for Mudajaya such as
(i) Firing of the Indian Power Plant project at end 2014/2015
(ii) new contract awards in future
(iii) positive earnings surprises in the future years

With this counter, one must be patient.

Any price dip is a buying opportunity

Potential re-rating catalysts for Mudajaya are
(i) Firing of the Indian Power Plant project at end 2014/2015
(ii) new contract awards in future
(iii) positive earnings surprises in the future years

In a down market I very much doubt that there will be significant downside in share price for any company with improving fundamentals as the market knows about it and will capitalize on any opportunity arising.

The strategic shift away from low margin construction business and towards targetted Power Projects with recurring income that contributes positively to its cashflow is a very important game changer for Mudajaya. Market is slowly awakening to this and I very much doubt there will be significant downside to its share price.

The first Indian power plant is an important toehold entry into India for Mudajaya and the Indian Power plant business in India has immense potential in the future years.