Thanks for sharing Ben Gan.
There is still some doubts over the sustainability of GP improving fundamentals at this juncture but with the latest Q1 2014 quarterly results and the Annual Report 2013 on FSC certification to fall back on , improving timber demand and the future expectation and likelihood of dryer weather ahead(which supports timber harvesting) , the Rewards of Investment at this material time will be higher than the risk of investment.

It looks like GP is on the cusp of a price uptrend.

Wow, there is so much passion here which is really a good thing though and please by all means do express your views with passion as well. It makes the discussion even more interesting!!

Stockoperator, Yes, you are indeed very good in reading in between the lines, a rare skill indeed.

Kcchong, I would consider Gamuda as a stock with a high degree of political affinity but I have never invested in it though and moreover I would not really invest in big caps as there is not much margin of safety or rather it is "fairly valued". My focus will be on mid and small caps which has the prospect of increasing EPS over the next few years.

What is the rationale for owning stocks which has "intrinsic value" but it hardly moves and one has to hold it for years expecting it to move up and in the process test one's patience to the limit? What is the opportunity cost of invested capital then?

Wouldn't it be better to focus on stocks that has "reasonable intrinsic value" but it has strategic minded management and a business model that drives UP value of its share price??

Moreover an investor must be able to realize value, free up capital and look for another investment opportunity. As such the prospect of increasing profit growth over several years is the most important criteria for me.

It is pointless to own an intrinsic value stocks that has no profit growth, no prospect of increasing profit growth or for that matter decreasing profit prospects or uncertain profit prospects.

The invested capital has to give reasonable expected returns for any investor within a certain time frame but certainly not years of waiting. If not I will cut out and seek another investment opportunity.

Parkson's management decision on share buybacks to slow down the slide in its share price is an indication that the management has no better idea on using the cash to add further value to its business model and this may not be viewed positively by any investor. The slide in the share price is also indicating that its business fundamentals is deteriorating.

The way forward is for management to come forth with a revitalized business strategy that can add greater value to its future business.

Johnny Cash,
I do not see any relevance of your response pertaining to the subject matter raised by Mr Koon pertaining to "The BN Government should close down MAS""

Do you agree that the BN government should close down MAS or otherwise?

Do you agree that the BN government should continue to use your own tax money to bail out MAS?

Or do you support the idea that the BN government should get out of the airline business?

Thank you Mr Koon for your educational response on investing from a businessman perspective.

Let us focus on the BIG Picture.
MAS can only transform itself if the following happens
- Government/Government linked companies exit as major shareholders as it had proven to itself ,to Malaysians and to the rest of the world all these years that it cannot turnaround MAS despite so many attempts using tax payers money. The Government should realize by now that it has no competence whatsoever in managing MAS
- Government/Government linked tenders its shares to the highest bidder from Malaysian and private overseas investors who are confident of making MAS into one of the top profitable airline company
-New business minded and very capable investors cum shareholders comes in to transform MAS
- MAS is 100% freed from government/political interferences and operates as a profit concern
- MAS new shareholders hires top management talents and the new BOD has to ensure that KPIs for MAS management and staff be benchmarked against the top performing airline companies in the world
- MAS new organization structure must follow/support its new business strategy of being one of the top profitable airline company in the world

Mr Koon,
R u moving away from "undervalued growth stocks" or "Value Growth stocks" towards minimum risk blue chip stocks which are fully valued now such as KLK, Batu Kawan and now PBB? What is your rationale for such a shift in your stock investment strategy?

Selling a hidden gem where the business fundamental will improve significantly in the future years and focusing investments in OSV assets where the business fundamental will for sure deteriorate in the future years..
Does this make any strategic business sense?

What is a good investor. What might have a good situation for the past 10 years is not necessarily going to be a good one for the next 10 years. An investor who is married to his/her stock and does not know how to realize value is not a good investor.

CPO price is correcting now. Perhaps the best action now is to do nothing, observe the weather condition and wait for a good opportunity to enter. In stock market, Past success does 100% guarantee future success.

O&G OSV theme play is a bit overplayed now. Supply of OSV is more than PETRONAS Demand for OSV as stated by PETRONAS CEO. Gross Margins overtime will go south. Gross margins overseas may not be as lucrative as PETRONAS rates.

Yes if you get in at tail end of a long cycle. No if you are in mid cycle and that will be a long wait. Important question is "Has the long cycle ended for Dry Bulk Carriers? Ïs upturn just around the corner?"

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/264233
Learning lesson is don't listen to hearsay, do your homework, investigate thoroughly, dig into the facts, be open minded, be objective, stand your ground and don't be unduly influenced by anyone!! Hahaha

FA no change. TA very much oversold. The darkest hour will soon pass and Dawn will break out soon Hahaha

Hahaha "Second change" berubah ubah to "Second chance" by Ah Moi Hahaha

u mean everybody deserves a "second chance" instead of second change? Hahaha

second change in very dark is very good. U can start to nibble a little bit and nibble downward even more if it gets even more darker Hahaha

High Capex,low margins, intense price competition with long cycle time, don't know when cycle will end??

Is this a good business to invest?

Increasing FA from Properties + Plantation means flexible up trending TP!! Hahaha

Good Scenario!! What is price now??? Hahaha

< 2.50 very dark is very good , darker still even better Hahaha

Just wondering aloud...
What is current buying behavior and what will be the future buying behavioral trend of the internet savvy young generation in China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia or elsewhere? Would they still go to departmental stores, get stuck in traffic jams, burn petrol, waste time stuck in traffic jams to buy at higher prices at Departmental stores or would they go to internet to buy same goods at lower prices and get it delivered to their doorstep?

MKH FA will improve further. TA coming off "oversold". Recent downtrend had ended. UP trending now.

Still dark Hahaha

Leno,
What is the analytical technique or techniques that you use to estimate the intrinsic value of PMCorp? What are the tangible and intangible factors that you had employed in your analytical technique or techniques to support your estimation of the intrinsic value of PMCorp? What is your estimate on the intrinsic value of PMCorp?

Every Malaysian car consumer will definitely want to stretch their disposable income $$$$$$$. Anything that increases the cost of purchase and deprive them of their choice of selection is certainly not welcome by everyone concerned

Why should one man decide what car and what price an average Malaysian car consumer should pay for? Did all Malaysians give him the exclusive right to decide for ALL?

Dear Mr Koon,
Please advise whether you will be speaking on anything new over and above what you had already posted and explained in your previous blogs.

LTinvestor,
Just look at the big picture.
OSV rates will decline in Malaysia over time.
Lower OSV rates means lower Gross Margin contribution resulting in lower EPS. Lower EPS means lower share price.
Whatever the accounting policy is, the fact remains that the cash flow generation capacity of an OSV will decrease over time as margins will decrease due to more competition and increasing maintenance cost. Moreover interest rates will surely go much higher in the future compared to current rates and that means interest servicing cost will go up and this will further eat into the accounting profits resulting in lower EPS.

Look at the Facts and the business fundamentals of SILK highway Toll versus the OSV business fundamentals.
SILKHLD had two fundamental business as of yesterday.
The SILK highway toll and the OSV business.
The SILK Highway toll will see an exponential increase in traffic when all the mass housing projects by MKH and the rest comes on stream. That means increasing recurring income over time and this will lead to increasing fundamental over time. Unfortunately with the latest development this is no longer the case.

The OSV business will see increasing price competition in the forthcoming years. PETRONAS CEO had already cautioned about 2 months back that OSV rates will surely come down as the supply is now much more than demand. OSV players have to look to overseas market to fill the gap. Overseas OSV rates will not be as lucrative as PETRONAS OSV rates. That means the fundamental of OSV business with PETRONAS will deteriorate over time as supply of OSV exceeds the demand by PETRONAS. OSV rates for sure will come down in the future as stated by PETRONAS CEO.

SILK is also investing in new OSV assets and that means higher depreciation in the future years whilst the OSV rates will decline as cautioned by PETRONAS CEO. High depreciation will eat into accounting profits and will dampen the Net Profit and subsequently lower the EPS. Lower OSV rates in future will result in lower gross margin contribution by OSV business and hence result in lower EPS.

Just look at the facts and decide by yourself.

Now is the darkest hour before dawn breaks!!

The young generation of Malaysians are much more open minded and liberal compared to their parents. The move towards liberalism is an irreversible trend and surely it will gain more traction with time.

The operational performance had deteriorated further. The Net profit was contributed by asset sale.

What is the point of buying back company shares with cash? This only shows that management has no better business ideas to use the cash to grow its top and bottom line.

The latest results proved beyond any reasonable doubt that the fundamentals of its chocolate business has deteriorated further. It further cash doubts on current management ability and its professional competency to grow the fast moving chocolate consumer business

FA for MKH will improve further. TA already oversold. Time to re-initiate position in MKH.

PETRONAS CEO, about 2 months ago, had cautioned that OSV rates will only go down in future as the supply is more than the demand. Unless SILKHLD value adds and differentiates its O&G business, future earnings will be just be average if based purely on OSV business prospects. To value add and differentiate its O&G business it needs a new business strategy, time to execute strategy and more capital investment to support the strategy that can truly add higher value to its O&G biz. At the moment its just OSV biz.

Excellent results for MKH. Future results will be even better. Can collect MKH on any price weakness.

The passenger traffic in the SILK highway had been increasing and will increase further and that means increasing recurring income over time due to the massive mass housing cum commercial property development projects in Kajang by MKH, Gamuda, Mah Sing and other developers. The latest news is not positive for SILKHLD as its fundamental is going to change soon.

The latest quarterly results for MKH is fantastic and it is better to sell SILKHLD now and wait for opportunity to buy MKH on weakness.

What happened to MH370 was indeed very unfortunate and tragic.PM Najib stated that it ended its journey in the Indian Ocean. Tun Dr Mahathir has a different opinion. Where is MH 370? Where are the passengers? We do not really know and Only god knows what had happened. Our fervent prayers go to all the unfortunates onboard.

Now let us focus onto you as a car consumer living in Malaysia. As a car consumer living in Malaysia, have you compared the prices of Proton cars and other car brands in the Malaysian market? Have you researched and obtained price info of the other car makes(Proton equivalent or near equivalent) in USA, Japan and Germany?

Do u notice any difference in quality cum technical specs between Protons for Malaysia market versus Proton for overseas market? What is the price to consumer of Proton in Malaysia and in overseas market?

Do u see any difference between the car price of Proton, other brands in overseas markets? Do u also see any price difference between Proton and the other competitors in the Malaysian market? Is there any difference in technical car specs in Malaysia compared to the overseas markets such as USA, Japan and Germany?

Having done all that and taking a position of an average wage earner and a car consumer in Malaysia":

Is the average Malaysian car consumer earning an average income which is much lower than the average incomes in USA, Germany and Japan financially better off with Proton or financially better off without Proton?

Kulim's core business is in Palm Oil biz in Malaysia and overseas. Further catalyst for higher share price will come from:
- increasing volume of CPO production and higher CPO selling prices in the future
- announcement of new property development projects in its Johor plantation lands
- New Oil & Gas servicing business in Pengerang Johor

Price downside is very limited as this level but the future price upside will be much more when the above catalyzing factors gain traction over time.

Hahaha Paying good money to buy new defunct but rebadged models whereas the average car consumer overseas pays good money to buy the latest models!! This is truly Malaysia Boleh! Hahaha

The old Proton Saga cars were fitted with Mitsubishi engines made in Japan. So why not buy Mitsubishi then instead of buying Proton? How much will a Mitsubishi cost you then? For that matter the old Toyotas, Mercedes without the complex electronics were even better. Without the government protection for Proton, how much would you pay for a Toyota or a Mercedes then?

Without Proton and the government protection for Proton, will u pay higher or lower price for a new car? Will u have more choices of new cars to choose from? As a consumer with limited budget do u want more choices for selection or only make do with Proton?

Is an average Malaysian car consumer earning an average income which is much lower than the average incomes in USA, Germany and Japan better off with Proton or without Proton?

So what would you focus on?
ROCE or ROIC?

Appointing an economic incompetent as defined by Jim Rogers in page 52 on "HOT COMMODITIES" to turn around MAS which requires economic competent CEO?

Can an economic incompetent transform into an economic competent?

There is no benefit for an average Malaysian car consumer who earn the lowest wage compared to their counterpart in USA, Germany and Japan to buy sub quality Proton with low safety standards but at prices where their foreign counterpart could easily buy a much better built, higher quality car of similar make but with much higher safety standards.

When will the average Malaysian car consumer wake up from this slumber?

When will these average Malaysian car consumers ever wake up and realize that Proton had demonstrated over the past 20 odd years that it had no real definable competency in making quality, competitive cars with high safety standards that can compete in Malaysia and the world markets? Why feel proud about Proton when Proton had not demonstrated any achievement in producing quality, competitive priced cars with high safety standards that Malaysians can indeed be proud of?

When will the average Malaysian car consumer realized that they had all along been conned for so many years?

Jim Rogers wrote a book called "HOT COMMODITIES" and had stated in page 52 of his book that "Malaysia whose economy is also based on natural resources was ruled by an economic incompetent from 1981 to 2003; new leadership might bring some new opportunities"

Property prices going up is a global phenomena due to the massive liquidity worldwide.

Malaysian consumers do not have a choice to buy quality cars with good safety standards at competitive prices as in the developed countries.

The average Malaysian has no choice but to buy Proton and what they get is a old technology car with poor workmanship, poor quality and low safety standards.

There had been no physical evidence to date that MH370 had crashed but there had been numerous speculations on MH370 which almost everyone in i3 forum is quite well informed vide the internet news.

The price of a car in Malaysia is very much higher compared to the developed countries such as USA, Germany and Japan but the wages earned by the average Malaysian is the lowest. Moreover the quality and safety standards of Proton cars since the eighties is much below the quality and safety standards required in USA, Germany and Japan. Hence Malaysian car consumers are getting a very raw deal indeed as they earned the lowest wage relative to the three countries but pay a much higher car price but with lower built quality. Is the average Malaysian car consumer aware of the material fact that they earned the lowest wage relative to the three countries but pay much higher price for a car that is built with lower quality and lower safety standards? There could possibly be a strong correlation between sub quality built cars and one of the highest road mortality in the world.

Since the eighties, it is very obvious that Proton had proven to itself that it cannot compete in Malaysian market without governmental protection and had failed miserably in open competition in the overseas market as it lacked the creative skillsets, technical competency and economy of scale to build quality cars at competitive prices that can sustain its future.

Without government protection, Proton will not survive in Malaysian market let alone compete in the overseas market. The average Malaysian consumer will be much better off without Proton even though they have to pay higher price for fuel.

Police helpless when confronting BN hooligans. Why are these people allowed to take the law into their own hands?

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/263470

Mr Koon,
TH Plant reached max value of RM 3.00 on May 14 2007 and hovered between RM 2.50 and RM 3.00 till May 5 2008, almost 1 year. Thereafter it took TH Plant 7 months to decline to a low of RM 1.00 on Dec 29 2008.

The fundamentals for TH plant had much improved since then. Based on yesterday's closing price of RM 2.17, the Market Cap per hectare is about RM 28,446 per hectare. If one compare to say RM 70,000 per hectare, the price of TH Plant could reach a potential max value of RM 5.33 if the dry weather continue till end of 2014. RM 70,00 per hectare was the recent recorded transacted price based on lower CPO price level.

As you are a long term investor with a focussed eye on a realistic fair value , what is your take on a realistic fair value for TH Plant?

Resistance of 78 cents had been taken out, moving steadily UP