Its your logic that is problematic.

1. The last time "this" happened - oil prices collapsed. What is "this"? Your title implies a causal relationship which doesn't make sense at all.

2. The period you highlighted, it just shows a weaker correlation between the X rate and oil prices, other factors influencing the two, that's all.

3. The remaining parts of essay, strength of USD, commodity blah blah blah, is just something else unrelated.

In my opinion, near term another collapse is just coming around the corner. For the last 10 years, China economy is powering the whole World's economy. The engine is losing steam now. The kicker of the next crisis is the "one belt one road" thing, which is draining up China's capital, rapidly. Energy will be cheap, transport will be revolutionalise with the introduction of ZPE.

Just say your analysis is weak.

This company low tech lah, assemble only, you think they can make LED chip meh....zzz

I totally agree on what you said. But timing might be an issue now.

You got me, hahahaha, :so funny

Well, if JAKS project failed, collapse like Xinquan, probably uncle Koon bankrupt. If that is the case, it's an honour to witness fall of the "super investor".

女人，Easy！

But EPF-Nomura sold the most shares lately woh......Its irony

Chan Sau Wei, nice one. 買唔起（夢想）死開啦！

584m net profit is one of the highest ever.

Operating profit level is good considering competitive environment, short of pilots, staff bonus (not so sure already, its hard to see whether is paid in Q4 or Q1).

You may say everything is good, but not good enough. However, i would say this is the best any enterpreneur can ever be. TF is maintaining the balance between making money, expansion (while pressuring your competitor) and increasing staff morale. This is the hardest in business.

I can understand TF is slowing the growth to accomodate the needs of the shareholders. See what happened in Airasia X, and Airasia few years before. (Its a very sad thing. In Malaysia you grow too fast, shareholders dump your shares. Tesla, Google, Uber-like corporation will die in infant stage if they are here. In China, even worse.)

Anyway, EPS Q1A 18.4 cents, Q2P 18.4 cents, Q3P 5 cents, Q4P 30 cents. (without monetization exercises).

Huat lah!!!!

Supermx2, so you buy put warrant tomorrow loh.

輸死你

Congratulations guys.

Huat lah

Supermx2, learn while you still can.

Well, I said before 800m operating profit.

Oil starts to drop back sharply, myr gaining, Airasia results, better tomorrow

Radzi, agree! Also they are selling tickets too cheap, it should be, as load factor goes up, the last ticket sold must be more expensive. Obviously they changed the system to accompany competition.

Icon8888, are you going to visit KC or not?

Result should be good, but not superb. They hinted yield will be lower, but AAC still on, a normal good result will put Airasia share price back on track. Fatt Tat loh, if goes back to RM3.50.

BUY BUY BUY....

So now done selling, on the way up. I hope....

OK. No merger, results is bad. The only hope is the turnover has increased. Otherwise just sell.

So, hold it for long term if possible.

I don't know about you, but whenever i fly other airlines, i got so scare of the noise and bumps. So, my only hope is that there are many like me who will keep coming back for Airasia X.

Go to KLIA2 to see the planes, all red, Airasia is dominating the scene.

This is my view only, people just got nervous because of all those bad results of associates, tunepro, aax, TAA, plus EPF sold a lot.

Of course, the fall is overdue because of volume too low over the last couple of weeks.

Airasia is fine. 4% yield, high growth, good profit, low PE, still intact.

Even if QR is bad but Airasia still ok. Definitely not like AAX.

Supermx2, few months ago, exactly on the 8 Jan 2017, i noticed the trend in Airasia has reversed. So, i bought in around 2.18 level. Then i noticed you, who bought around 2.3-2.4 saying you are nervous. I advised you to read the annual report, some members advised you go to see the planes in KLIA2, but you said you sold anyway.

I cleared out around RM3.4, left with around 20%. Now i am buying back.

It's a good thing you fight all your way with so many people for so long, but still you don't read the annual report and don't go to see the planes. Stock market is ultimately about business, real businesses.

TF will say "AAC is still going on, just wait" in AGM. That's good enough!

Still 6 times PE, high growth, 4% yield, great discruptor, haha!

Might be affected by performance of subsidiary though.

"Plan for aa tonne discussed today thee fold good earning. Strong Ancilliary good dividend and special dividend every two years."

Here is what i understand,

"I am preparing for Airasia' massive discussion today, as i report good earnings. Strong Ancillary Income, Good Dividend, and will propose special dividend every two years. "

For those who sold, come back today!!!!

You all been cheated by Supermx2. haha!!

"Plan for aa tonne discussed today thee fold good earning. Strong Ancilliary good dividend and special dividend every two years."

Tony tweets.

May not fully understands the sentence. BUT "good earning, STRONG ANCILLARIRY, GOOD DIVIDEND" is understood.

At least Airasia is fine now, if not better.

After worse day drop in AA history, follows the greatest two days run in AA history.

Huat lah

Bought back some yesterday.

Today will rebound and the market will realise yesterday's drop is overdone.

The real thing is EPF is selling massively over the past few days.

So now everyone calm down, start over!

Its great the price being adjusted, hope of RM1 special dividend alive!! Let's hope that Tony tell us more on AAC today.

Well, Tony has already tweeted Airasia and Airasia x are two different companies, may also signal the two companies result will be different. In fact, all along they are very different.
Having said that, today's bloodbath shows how sensitive the market is.
Tomorrow should stabilise while agm, should have some news on AAC which will bring comfort.

KM comes into rescue.

Now really have to thank KM, takeover talk keeps it alive.

let's see if it goyak how much....haiz

I look through the QR, its worse than it looks.

1. Indonesia AAX losses widen.

2. Indonesia AAX has additional 16.9M losses not being recognised.

3. Despite 10M profit, equity reduced.

4. In fact, MYR strengthen during that period. From 4.48 to 4.4, roughly. They lie.

5. It is a tough quarter, they should have control expenses.

The real problem is, management being dishonest. Probably someone inside stole money also.

I will sell.

Habislah

John Lu, big sacrifies! Salute!!

VG, I agree on what you said.

Hopefully after today I can ask you, what's make AAX successful?

Few years back i comment Airasia is in a better position than Airasia X, because Airasia's competitor is weak but Airasia X's competitors are strong.

Today finally the tide has changed. SIA's reports net losses for Q4 amounted to S$138m, and the struggling Cathay announces job cuts today.

The once mighty SIA and Cathay will shrink, and shrink.

Glory day, AAX and Airasia!

Few years back i comment Airasia is in a better position than Airasia X, because Airasia's competitor is weak but Airasia X's competitors are strong.

Today finally the tide has changed. SIA's reports net losses for Q4 amounted to S$138m, and the struggling Cathay announces job cuts today.

The once mighty SIA and Cathay will shrink, and shrink.

Glory day, AAX and Airasia!

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/airasia-tune-protect-about-announce-big-tie

Collaboration between Airasia and tune to be announced.

tkp2, huat lah

Radzi, in the Focus M interview, they are already merging operations of Airasia and Airasia X in some countries. If it works, and AAX remains profitable, then they will propose to Airasia shareholders to see if the minority shareholders agree. Probably towards end of this year.

Airasia needs lots of cash to further develop the business, especially they want to build their own airports and buy lots of airplanes. They will just do a share swap.

One more thing, interest expense per annum is RM26M now. When they fully subscribe to the JV, probably yearly interest will balloon to RM100M. If they can raise equity then it makes it easier.

Because its KYY, so one must check very carefully.

I was impressed when i see the writer did some verifications, especially on the background of China Partner in Vietnam JV. Then i wonder where is the "supposed" 400m construction profit coming from? Apparently its only accounting figure, i.e. from their own pocket. They marked-up and charge the JV, right?

The Evolve mall was said to have GDV of 2b, i add up 5 years' sales also not up to that figure.

Poor execution, over the years, many projects but very small profit.

You see, the company have only very little cash. And yet they borrow more and subscribe to the JV, then the JV borrow even more. I think their gearing must have more than 10 times. 槓桿槓桿再槓桿！勁！ (they ranked no.2 at best, no. 1 is 1mdb)

The only bright spot is the company has a very strong Chinese Partner. But nowadays these China SOE are very careful. If anything goes wrong, they simply kick you away.

My guess is it's a miracle if the company can complete the Vietnam project.

Great Eastern and OCBC ceased to be substantial shareholders EVEN AFTER the JV with China partner was materialised. Amazing!

I think the 400m construction profit should be double-counting. I haven't check yet, but it looks like doesn't make sense.

謝謝分享，寫得很好，分析的也對。

只是我個人來說比較喜歡新的嘗試。如果我來養菇，我就不消毒，改用良菌來養。須知在大自然中，菇類在樹幹下成長，是沒有經過消毒的。一些公司用昂貴的技術已經成功了，只是限於靈芝類比較昂貴的藥材種植。

Remember to buy a copy of Focus Malaysia today.

Remember to buy a copy of Focus Malaysia today.

Tambah 5c kah??

Kasi naik lah, boss

I think KM is wrong in his calculation. (correct me if i am wrong)

IPO price RM1.25. Right issue 3:4, and 1.5 free warrant.

So say you buy 4 shares @ IPO, and paid for the the right issue.

Total paid: RM1.25 * 4 + 3 * 0.22 = RM5.66.

Total in hand: 7 shares + 1.5 warrant.

If takeover price is RM0.67, then say warrant price increases by RM0.16 to RM0.44, then only got RM5.35 lah.

NOT ENOUGH!!

Kytan, nice one.