I think AAC will still be sold, despite all the delay. But it's not because TF and MK need to repay loan, they are so rich now banks will be happy to earn more interest.

In three years TF will retire. Will he keep his promise to surpass Singapore Airlines' market value? Probably yes, because SIA is failing rapidly

AAX now a takeover target. Airasia on the other hand, may lose out if the two merged. In fact, all these years, Airasia made a lot of money from AAX, why merged it? My reasoning is AAX has a wonderful CEO now, whom is fit to manage the enlarged entity.

I am 80% in AAX now, by the way.

Niki, Tony called it dual listing, pronounce it dual listing lah.

Cruger, well said.

其實文章已經將結論說出來，雖然理想，我也支持，可是卻是絕對不會成功的。

一路一帶沿線國家，一個窮過一個。姑莫論這些國家為什麼那麼窮的根源問題，以中國的國力，要扶起那麼多國家、那麼多人口、回報期那麼久，根本是不實際的。

現在才做了幾年，錢已經不夠了，以後何以為繼？

Forget about AAC. Think about dual listing....

No. If they want to rush, they would have completed the deal. They are not in a hurry, they intend to make it work long term. Slow Slow wait lah....

You said that long time ago.

These oil palm companies all very low tech one, just better than stone age. In this modern age where tech is the key, they can't make much money. History showed that when volume of FFB up, price down, or the other way round. Basic monopolistic competition setup. And you have monopolistic competition between all the different oil producers.

Except the year 2009 when China bought everything the world produced, that was the heyday for Palm oil ==> high price and high volume.

So how can Oil palm companies make tons of money? The only way is to innovate, lower cost and increase production efficiency, rather than just wait for better price to come.

Production efficiency: applies stem foliar, mechanisation of harvesting using the RIGHT technology (for 40 years MPOB came up with some stupid KAPSIT CANTAS which is 20 times more expensive than a grass cutter but 20 times less efficient than a grass cutter) such as motorised wheel barrow, rail system inside estate, etc.

You know, the modern world commonly use 4 families of breeds for genetic selection purpose. Only Malaysia are using 2 families. You see the seedlings commonly labeled DxP, instead they should be using for instance, AxDxPxZ. Its 4 times more powerful than the usual way. Now some companies like Sime is starting to use 3 familes. Still a long way to go.

With these, at least oil palm companies in Malaysia can make 6 times more money.

This minor fall is long overdue, no worries. Tomorrow will go up again.

I am more into AAX now as I look through the numbers. Put it simple, Q4 is the strongest for Airasia but Q1 is the strongest for AAX.

Still holding Airasia, but it's small portion only. Last time was 100%. If Airasia drops more, will buy back.

Imagine what is TF thinking, Airasia China not working (can't push up price to rm6 ++), AAC not working, probably IPOs won't work also. Malaysian do not understands growth, vision, innovation etc. Just not appreciates enough. You see Airasia go around the world to collect trophies and where is the trophy for best entrepreneur for TF?

Now TF must be thinking, only dual listing works!! Bring us to rm12. Looking forward to that.

我是針對阿珠說的比特幣不買商品說的。這是一個事實！

e wallet買東西是另外一回事

這次不罵你，起碼你提出了一個正當的問題，姑勿論你的答案對不對。

比特幣做到了法幣做不到的一些事情。

其一，我跟朋友分享，早前的電郵地址都是跟著位置與網絡供應商定的，如果你搬家，或者離開一個國家，那就很不方便了。後來有了hotmail等等，如果你離開馬來西亞的大學去美國執教，那hotmail就方便多了。同理，電子貨幣的出現超越了國際國藉國界的限制。

其二，比如說你買一片土地來炒賣，買了以後若干年再賣掉。中間有許多律師費、仲介費、管理等等成本。買實體黃金還有儲藏成本，虛擬黃金還要付昂貴的交易費，而電子貨幣卻是一個低管理成本的全球大投機市場。

其三，數量是固定的。

其四，比特幣是可以轉換成不同貨幣來買東西的。比如今天我要離開馬來西亞，全家移去英國，比特幣就是最有效、最省錢的方法。比起我要換一堆炒票或買一堆黃金帶上亞航，便宜多了。

冠華啊冠華，現在比特幣是一千八百多美元哦。

Stockman, you have a point. But I think TF will still sell AAC, simply because the planes are older.

Hi, guys!

Recent study on AAX bring some surprises to me:

1. For AAX, Q1 is the strongest, whereas Q4 is the strongest for Airasia.
2. Recent inbound of Chinese tourist benefits a lot to AAX. Chinese are discourage to visit Korea due to the THAAD matter so most of them are choosing SEA.
3. Traditionally you don't see so many Chinese tourists around this time. The high load factor for AAX is continuous.
4. I did a brief calculation, my guess on Q1 operating profits for AAX is more than RM200M. Plus maybe a forex gain of RM16M.
5. If I am right, AAX will have 2 consecutive quarters (Q1 and Q2) of EPS of 5-7 cents, share price of AAX should be heading north of RM1.00.

Happy Investing, HUAT LAH!

The title wrongly spelled Everbright [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Everbright_Group] 光大 is very mostly State-owned, ranked 313 of Fortune Global 500. So its really no problem the JV gets through all the regulatory requirements.

China Aircraft Leasing Group Holdings (http://www.calc.com.hk/en/), whenever airasia not enough aircraft, lease from them. Probably not AAC deal related.

Its surely great news we will have airasia China. Unlike many other companies, Airasia knows China. TF is really one of a kind, he gets around the most difficult issues. So, big success in China really achievable.

As I learn more about Airasia, i have other thinking.

唐吉訶德

好歌

STC1136, I did a brief calculation, my guess is RM800M operating profit for Q1.

你有良知？荒謬。

要有良知，首先要明辯是非，錯了要認錯。你是非曲直都分不清楚，整天惡意誹謗別人，抬高自己（雖然這方面你是完敗的），好自為之吧！

真的，有時候去網上測試一下你的IQ，試試看，別怕，哦！

【当然，那些有车有房以及拥有其他资产的美国人们往往为了买这些负债累累，这也是事实。然而，如果一个美国人违约，他或者她的资产并不会消失或者丧失其可用性。通常，所有权会转给借贷机构，之后该机构再转卖一个美国人买家。我们国家的财富仍然完好无损。正如格特鲁德-斯泰因指出得那样，“钱总在那里，只是装钱的口袋不断变化”】。

至於這段話，巴菲特的意思是，東西是東西，錢是錢。錢轉來轉去，擁有權換來換去，東西卻不會消失。真正有用處的財富是東西，不是金錢。你誤解了「我们国家的财富仍然完好无损」這句話的意思，巴菲特的意思並不是違約了可以賴皮，而是東西是不會消失的。

最起碼你要了解他的意思才能夠批評吧。其實他已經說得非常明確了。

街邊的賣菜婆都知道，人要吃飯，喝水，穿衣，住房，賴以生存。也許你不一樣，抱著黃金就可以存活。

特種豬！呵呵

還是那句話，你試試開一個檔口，賣炒粿條，如果你能賺錢的話，你就了解什麼叫做實業。

來，試試生產一點東西，哪怕是一顆糖果、一碟炒麵，做一個有用的人！

According to your table, it should worth RM28.66? lol

Warren Buffett uses Owner's Earning instead of Net profit, FCF, etc.

Owner's Earning is Net Profit + depreciation - capital expenditure. Since Airasia is growing pretty fast, probably you should adjust capital expenditure according to number of planes bought.

Then times 20% you have your dividend. Assume growing 20% a year.

Then do a DDM.

You will have your Intrinsic Value, the Buffett way. (hope i am right, correct me if i am wrong).

I respect you unlike the pig guy, you have logic in your work.

In my opinion, put it simple, before the plane crash, Airasia is a "A" class company. After the plane crash, its a "A++" company.

So, you should use the latest two year data as your main reference.

Hence, topline growth rate is 10% and operating profit is growing around 35% / annum.

你這種人不學無術，建議你先開檔賣雲吞麵，了解了解什麼叫實業！

你什麼都不懂只會指手劃腳。我告訴你一個人人都懂的現實：現代企業競爭，誰做得好，誰就贏完全世界！亞航幹得好，新航、國泰自己會死掉，連狙擊都不用！

亞航的net income一年比一年多，你拿這來比，居心不良，惡毒之極！

亞航的現金越來越多，負債比越來越低，拿來跟這種破產公司比，簡直是侮辱斯文。

你的立論根本完全沒有基礎，你想說什麼？凡是擴展都不好？敗類

Come on, 6 times PE, not too much to ask for. 12b market cap. Gogogo, TF

Wiki123, i e-mail cimb-ib 2 weeks before expiry and say I will pick up the cheques in person. My broker tried to call but they never pick up the phone, so I guess e-mail is the only way.

Pie, ghlsys不錯，一些像trc不是不好，只是蠅頭小利。

雖然發生的機會很小，但你的立論還不算荒謬，算是有所長進！沒有像以往那樣錯的離譜！

可惜你還是不改郎中騙吃本色，沒有下點功夫算出來幾年內會發生。

The beauty of Airasia is, running out of supply of shares, as you may have notice. Most are medium term investor now. Those who sold, later will buy back.

This morning got my c38 cheques. The staff is friendly but the security is tight though. I asked is there any other ways to get the money? The answer is no. Either by post or pick up personally, has to be cheque.

Now it's May already, traditionally has entered into low season I still see Airasia business very good.

I have no doubt AAC will be sold, but I think the deal has some obstacles. It's doesn't matter as business still super good.

I may look like a fool to buy at rm3.50. But I spotted this @2.18 level.

Huat lah!

Ryan88, this GUOWENGUI got 120b RMB woh, of course all taken away now.

幾何，你這幾個字饒有趣味

Really Geng!!

This is high level economics, pretty soon someone can write new theory based on it.

贊同作者的立論。只是補充一點，二十多年來中國全世界亂派錢，姑且稱之為「白天鵝」，收效可說是微乎其微的。一些受惠的國家並沒有投桃報李，反而激起對抗、忘恩負義者比比皆是，因為適度的反省再調整政策也是應該的。

例如大馬城方面要求更合理的條款與回報也是合乎情理的。

其實從整個事件的大局看，那「本地公司」也是吹牛的多。

大馬人能懂中文已經了不得了，還管什麼「核彈報料」。

連中國公安部長去美國都搞不定郭文貴，但終究錢被凍結了，也不能算是全身而退。

郭文貴來一個釜底抽薪，「不小心」披露習王之間的權闘，刺破了重重面紗，可謂觸目驚心！

I am going to get my cheques for c38 tomorrow. Its confirmed to be ready so i guess they post it out tomorrow also.

Regarding AAC, i think there must be problems, which causes the delay. But it should be solvable, that's because due diligence has been carried out, also those are binding bids.

Anyway, Airasia still deeply undervalued, with high growth potentials, plus i am going to buy 10 T-shirts tomorrow.

JN88, ops, Tony told me will only hedge near USD40, keke!

Batu88, 這傢伙冥頑不靈，不需要浪費時間！他的立論荒謬，沒有探討的價值！

VG, you really got patient.

For me, delay in announcing AAC deal signals possible problem.

Have to be cautious.

I don't know nothing and i don't own any shares.

In my opinion, its still a mystery of what is actually happening.

On one side is "we paid", the other side say "you didn't pay", sounds a bit familiar har? I am very reluctant to discuss it that way, they may catch anybody who came out with a conspiracy theory.

Yesterday I was on Airasia flight, the nice ground crew say since I have 12kg more luggage allowance, would I like to put in my hand luggage as well. I weighted and it was only 1.4kg, so I carry it on anyway.
I don't know what kind of executives need to carry more than 7kg of tools on board, if you are a student probably you need to (carry things). Nowadays Hp did most of the tricks.
I was selected to printout my own luggage tags as part of the trial, but they throw away my printout and say they ran out of the cover.
I bought 3 Airasia t-shirts with different sizes, for my workers to pick according to sizes, I want to give one each to my workers. As next week I will travel again to pick up my c38 cheques, I will buy more t-shirts.

Oil 44, keke

馬雲開聲保護保鏢，驚奇

This time obviously the writer is bias. Bro, this time is black and white, nothing blur.....

Its hard to see your logic.

But if you say you are arbitraging i may buy your idea. (volume too small though)

Icon8888, if you sell at rm3.62, then you made 3 times your money right? Geng

VG, plenty of (old) news flow, and this is the end of supposingly 5th week and early may for announcement of AAC. Outside (this counter) we are seeing bloodshed everywhere, another glory day to celebrate wisdom, courage and patient.

When there is nothing to do, do nothing. (WB)

Thanks!