Candlesticks chart flag and pennants formation, MACD cross over from above to below the signal line with wide histogram.
2. Moving average and the occurrence of death cross with daily prices falling faster and lower than the moving average line.
3. RSI below 25
4 Downwards flag and daily prices had broken through the pennants

5 All these are the signs and chart formations of PTRB. These are very bearish indicators and you have been forewarned numerous times.

6.This evening PTRB announced less than favorable quarterly result. Market will react and respond negatively. Selling will resume and price is expected to weaken

7.PTRB gradually gliding back to its IPO price of 36 sen is a near certainty.

8. Jump off the train to lessen the pain.
28/3/23

1.The critical determining factor for share price is earning and profit. When a company makes profit the share price will go up. And conversely, it will tumble when a loss is reported.
2. Share valuation is base on earning basis and certainly not dividend basis. Therefore, PTRB dividend policy is unable prevent the price from falling.

3.Look at Topglove, it pays very attractive dividend. However,when the profit is gone, the share price is not sustainable despite its dividend payout.

4. In short, dividend is like the ginger and spring onion on your steam fish.
It looks nice but nobody rush and much less fight over it.
28/3/23

1.PTRB closed 44 sen down 1.5sen with 3.6m shares traded today. Selling persisted and the falling momentum has gained strength.
2.The death cross that happened on 1st of march and the gap between the 9-day and 26-day moving averages had widen tremendously. Daily prices is falling faster than the moving average.
3.Today it has decisively pierced through the average line. This is a signal of greater fall to come basing on the interpretation of the candlesticks chart.

4. What is alarming and should not be taken lightly is the comparatively smaller volume traded compare to its active days with huge market participation.
5.The severe reduction in volume traded followed by falling prices tend to convey the message that the key player and its partners had already left the counter with enormous gains.
6. Graphically,the key man had started to unload its shareholdings beginning 16th Feb for 4 consecutive days over huge volume and again on 2nd march.

7.The sentiment for PTRB remains bearish and from hereon price could fall further and the quantum of fall will be impacted by the quarterly result and financial performance.

8. There is nothing wrong with the company. It is well managed and the business is profitable.
9.It is just that someone has identified the good company, played up the news,attracted huge retails participation, pushed up the share price, took advantage of the ignorance, sold out to take profit and caught many by surprise.
10.This is my personal perception of the counter.
27/3/23

1.Candlesticks technical chart remain very bearish. Nothing has changed since 14th. Mar. In addition the moratorium of a substantial numbers of IPO shares will be lifted tomorrow.
2.Weakness in share price expected. In the coming days if the announcement of quarterly result is below market expectation, prepare for pain.

26/3/2023

1. BSL has 75m share capital. On the completion of the fund raising exercise with right issues and free warrant the company has successfully raised additional 91m cash. Hence, the share capital has increased from 75m to 166m and the number of issued shares had ballooned 1.95b shares.
2. Together with the retained earnings and adding up the others reserve, the company has total equity of 241m.
3. The definition of PN17 implies that a company has continued to incur losses to the extent that its total equity is reduced to less than 25% of share capital with no or little working capital and cash balances. In simplicity, it means the company has lost 75% of its capital.
4 In the case of BSL it has 166m capital. Therefore, the threshold of PN17 would be 166m x 0.25 is 41.4m. BSL now has 241m in equity. That means it can continue to burn200m to fall into pn17. IF the company announces 10m losses year after year that would also take 20 years to kill them. Be care with what you write and try to support it with facts and numbers.
5. According to the circular dispatched to shareholders and to make a fair comment without negative bias, BSL has 12sen in net tangible assets, strong balance sheet and after the fund raising exercise it has added an unthinkable and yet it is true an amount of 91m cash in its bank balances.
6. So, It is indeed laughable that its share price closed at 4sen today. The explanation for this would be the value of a company and its share price does not depend on the value of its assets. It depends on the ability of the management to utilize the assets to generate revenue and profit. And sadly BSL has none. Share price and its valuation are based on earning basis and not assets basis.
7 Until BSL begin to make profit it will remain as a pathetic penny stock. In case you are not aware just more than a year ago BSL was trading near Rm1.45 and today it closes at 4sen. It is not children’s playground but a high risk and dangerous battle field. You could lose an arm or a leg. This is BSL.
8. In its last 10 years of business operations it has generated multi years of losses and even on the year that it made profit it was negligible. They are good at fund raising.
9. Now, the management has additional 91m cash at its disposal have you any idea how it would be spent. Are you not worry and concern?
10. Well, if you elect monkeys to provide security and safety to your bananas you must be prepared to be ridiculed and faced embarrassments.
15/3/2023

What is the price of warrant when it starts trading tomorrow?

1.Those who followed through the fund raising exercise would have subscribed 12k right shares at 5.5sen per share and received 5k free warrants.

2.Their cost of investment would be 12x55 is Rm660. Given that the closing price today is 5sen, therefore their shareholding has fallen to Rm600. There is a loss of Rm60

3.Warrant has two components value and that is the intrinsic value and time value. Given that the exercised price has been fixed at 5.5 sen,which is higher than the mother share it therefore has no intrinsic value.
4.So,the BSL warrant only has time value for a period of 5 years. How much is the time value is truly difficult to ascertain.

5. Instead we can look at it from this angle. The subscriber to the rights shares has lost Rm60 from the 12k share one has subscribed. And that means for each lot subscribed one would lose Rm5. Logically what is lost in the mother share must be compensated by an equal amount in the new warrants. Therefore the warrant is worth 0.5 or half sen.

6.The market may be willing to pay a small premium for the time value. Even it it happens, it will take a miracle for it to trade at any price greater than 2 sen. This is my personal perception. It may not be correct.

Happy Trading
14/3/2023

1.Silicon Valley Bank wound up. World Market, Stock Market, Everything Everywhere All At Once collapsed. PTRB burst out and bungee dive vertically towards the red ocean.

2. It opened at 50sen, inched upwards at 52.5sen and plunged to an intraday low of 44.5 sen and closed the day at 45.5sen.

3PTRB is trending on the candlesticks charts of a bear flag. Today at 45sen closing, it has broken the flag and smashed through the pennants from the upside to the downside with volume and volatility. Clearly the bears had rested and recovered its strength causing havoc again.

4. In the coming days, it will continue to charge more aggressively and violently. Enormous fall and greater damage are realistically expected basing on the technical analysis of candlesticks chart.

5. Share investments is not all the time about making profit. It is also about avoiding a loss from a counter that looks so palatable that you did not invest and ultimately turns out to be most deceiving and deceptive.

6. This posting is not a sarcasm and unintended to rub salt on a wound. Rather it is an attempt to forewarn that the worse is yet to come.

7. Be safe and avoid great exposure to danger.
14/3/2023

1PTRB had a spectacular bull run and price shot up sharply from 36sen to 68.5sen in the last 3 months. However, on 16/2/23 it experienced a first day reversal and price began to fall from its peak of 68.5sen over 4 consecutive days to hit a low of 57sen. Over the next five 5 trading days it recovered briefly to 63sen.

2 The bears resumed its course on 28/2/23 in which over 3 days PTRB had a sharp vertical price fall from 63sen to intraday low of 49.5sen and closed at 50sen. In the candlesticks chart this was the flag pole.
3 Thereafter, and over the next few days it consolidated in a parallel channel of ups and downs to form a flag. PTRB is now trending in a bear flag candlesticks chart pattern. Bear flag signals gloomy prospect and falling prices.

4 When the bears have rested enough and recovered its strength in the next few days or weeks, they will resume its rampage and further crash down the price.

5 The Company is expected to announce its 3Q result in March. Nothing except a set of good result could help to avoid the fall and salvage the damage. Otherwise, the collapse will be magnified.
6 Let the buyers beware and Caveat Emptor. Trade cautiously
10/3/23

1MN Holding has been listed more than a year ago. The initial public offer price was 21 Sen. Historically, the share price has hit 19.5sen low and peak at 40 sen. During this period the company has rewarded its long term and loyal shareholders with bonus issue of free warrants. For every existing 2 shares, you are entitled to receive 1 free warrant that has gone Ex and traded just two days ago.
2 If you had acquired 2 lots at 21 sen, your investment capital would be Rm420. You now have 2k shares trading at 28.5 sen and the warrant is price at 11 sen. The value of your investment slightly more than a year is valued at 2 x 285 =570 and 1k warrant is worth 110. Thus, the total value is Rm680. The value of your investment in MN has grown (680 – 420)/ 420 = 62%. A whopping 62%
3 Where do we go from here and what can be expected from MN?
In the 1Q the profit after tax was 1.19m over 27m revenue. In the 2Q revenue has jumped sharply to 41m and PAT increased to 2.58m. Considering that MN has secured strong order book of 356m with earning viability until 2025,it is therefore reasonably expected that the 3 Q could be better and final quarter stronger.

4 Basing on the positively increasing trend in revenue and profit, plus the energy and passion of the management to drive up revenue and push bottom line, a profit of 4m or even higher is realistically achievable in the coming few quarters. Thus the earning per share EPS will increase. The PE price earning multiple will compress and share price will continue to make advancement.
5 Notice that last month two directors disposed a total of 35m shares at 38 sen via off market transactions. This has created some worries and concern to the public minority shareholders. It is unnecessary. At some point in time when the price is right directors would sell and cash out to reward themselves for their hard work. It is not abnormal and not alarming. People do make adjustment to their portfolio and shareholding to realign with their current situation and preference from time to time.

6 Besides, the directors collectively hold 70% of the entire issued share capital. The shares are tightly held and in control thus rendering the counter relatively illiquid. This disposal is indeed healthy and would help to improve the liquidity and daily volume traded.

7 The company has made progress and the management has done well. This time it has managed to attract the attention of the Funds and Venture Capitalist. The company’s list of quality shareholders now include Proven Venture Capital PLT. Next target would be institutions and pension Fund.

8 The inclusion of Proven Venture Capital as substantial shareholders in MN and its continued existence with more than 20m shares is a comfort to minority shareholders. They are smart professionals managing investors’ fund and portfolio. They invest in young and dynamic companies with huge potential and enormous earning growth. They sure know more things about MN that we don’t know in its prospect and future, revenue and earnings growth and projects in the pipelines.

9 So, just invest with them.
I believe the next 2 quarters will be exciting and rewarding.
9/3/2023

1. Directors and insiders purchases are a sign of confidence and positive conviction in the prospects and future earning growth of the company. These are the people who know best and have the most up to date information about their company. Hence, directors buying its own company shares and continuing in its efforts are certainly bullish.

2 According to the announcement, on 28th Feb Dato Toh acquired a total of 530m shares from the open market. Thereafter, MN surged upwards for 4 consecutive days from 25 sen to close at 29 sen today. That is 16% gain.
3. There is still money to be made if you dare. So,hop onto the wagon and ride freely with Dato and profit from it.

6/3/2023

1Basing on the technical candlesticks chart for PTRB,, the MACD line has crossed below the Signal line on the 20th Feb 2023. This is a bearish indicator and the momentum is likely to persist on. In addition, the gap between the MACD and Signal line continue to widen as indicated by the larger red histograms. The bearish momentum is building up fast and will gather strength in the coming days.
2 Two days ago the counter experienced massive sell down over huge volume. It has collapse from 59.5 sen to close for the day at 50sen with intraday low of 49.5 Sen. Technically, it has established a Death cross on 2nd Mar 2023 in which the 9 day Moving Average line has crossed over the 20 day Moving Average line from above to below and fast approaching the 50 day moving average.
3 A death cross is an important signal that should not be taken lightly and much less ignored. It is a trading pattern and chart formation that point towards the transition from the bull market to a bear market. Hence, PTRB is currently undergoing severe stress and weakness.
4 Further, the Relative Strength Index RSI concurred with the similar bearish sentiment as indicated by the death cross and MACD and Signal lines indicators. The RSI is currently below 50 and gradually heading towards the oversold level. The bear will continue to charge and take control. Injuries, bruise and pain had inflicted. Going forward blood anticipated.
5 PTRB has enjoyed a mini bull run since its debut on Bursa. The bullish uptrend has reached its peak at 68.5sen and cooling off for a little while. It decline has begun and the downwards momentum will gather strength with accelerated speed in the coming days.
This is my technical analysis basing on the candlesticks chart and various technical indicators. It is just an expression of my personal opinion and it is not intended to influence anyone’s trading plan and investment strategy.
4/3/2023

1PTR has a spectacular fall today over huge volume. In the last 10 trading days it has fallen from a height of 68 sen to close today at 50sen. In percentage term, the share price has collapsed 27%. Basing on the fierce thrown down, it seems that the momentum of decline will persist resolutely.
2 PTR has 535m issued capital. The current 4 qtr running EPS is 5.92sen. At 50sen it is trading at a PE of 8.43x. It has a strong balance sheet and health financial ratios. The company has (93.84+10.63) 104.47m cash and bank balances but 46m in borrowings. According to its dividend policy, the company aspires to pay out 20% of its earning. It is in the food industry. The business is sustainable. In fact it is flourishing with the signing of MOU just 2 days ago.
3 In a nutshell, there is nothing wrong with this company. So, what happen? How to explain the brutal sell down today?.
4 From the listing circular PTR is listed on 27/9/2022. It has 535m share capital of which 380m is in the hands of the founder and principle shareholders. There was no offer for sale during IPO and that means the founder did not cash out. And hence, have not truly benefitted from the listing exercise. These380m shares are subject to 6 months moratorium ending 27th March. That means it cannot be traded and therefore at the onset only 155m shares or less are in circulation.
5. With such small number of shares in circulation PTR could become an easy target of control and manipulation. It is not impossible for the manipulator to scope up the share of penny stock and somewhat corner the counter and dictate the price at their fancy. It has happened. The feeling has been euphoric.
6.However,the music and party cannot go on indefinitely. Everything has a beginning and ending. They must find a reason to end the ball. The operators are aware that in the coming weeks the moratorium will be lifted and 139m owner shares could potentially flood the market. Today’s brutal sell down could be a deliberate exercise to frustrate any game plan after 27th March.
7. In addition, the current monsoon session and heavy rain and serious flooding in many parts of Malaysia particular in area where PTR has production operation will be affected. Supply of fish and all kinds of sea food could be disrupted. This would affect negatively on production, deliveries, sale and ultimately profit of the company. Investors are rushing out and creating a deadly stampede.
8. This explains the swift ascent and steep decline in share price over the past trading days.
9. This is my personal perception of the counter and it does not reflect the true market situation and much less the endeavor of market participation.
10. it is written and posted for your reading pleasure.
2/3/2023

1. I do not have shares in Penergy but have the itch and desire to write an opinion and post it.
2. Penergy has just announced its 4th quarter result. It reported a revenue of 110m and a profit after tax of 7.9m which is less than market expectation. It is therefore,not entirely wrong to say Penergy had a missed quarter performance.

3.Nonetheless, on a full year basis the company has managed to achieve a revenue of 370m and generated a profit after tax of 13.07m
4. The company has issued share capital of 321m. Its earning per share is 4.06 sen. At the current price of 83 sen, it is therefore trading at a price earning multiple of 21.78x
5. Considering that the Bursa PE is between 13x to 15x, Penergy is thus somewhat fully valued.
6. The company has a sound and strong balance sheet. Its net tangible assets is 1.21.
7. For the current year it has paid out 2 sen dividend and also declared another 3 sen final dividend in the 4th quarter.
8. The company has a surprisingly impressive cash and bank balances of a massive amount of Rm184.8m. And more impressively, it has no long term debts and borrowings but short term liabilities of Rm36m that does not have significant financial burden and impact.

9. Despite its less than favorable profit performance, Petra was able to generate a remarkable and commendable net cash flow from its operating activities of a massive amount of Rm65.69m

10. On the whole, the company's business is still profitable and sustainable. It has a healthy balance sheet with sound financial ratios. The business continued to generate free and net cash flow.
11. The 4th quarter less than impressive profit performance is just a temporary setback.
12. A knee jerk sell down is not unexpected. Nevertheless, it is not surprising.

13. Therefore the sell down and fall in price is not alarming. In stead it opens up an opportunity for you to buy cheap for long term value investing.

14 This is my personal perception and opinion of the counter. It may be wrong. Trade cautiously.

26/2/2023

MN closed at 35 sen yesterday. The counter has gone X and shareholders are entitled to the free warrants.This morning the adjusted reference price is 35 x 2+ 20 all divided by 3 is 30 sen.
2.When trading began, the counter exhibited weakness and share price fell sharply to hit 25.5 sen in the morning over moderate volume. Many saw the opportunity for a cheap bargain.
3. Buying support returned and the momentum gather strength and the counter closed for the day at 29.5 sen or half sen below the reference price over considerably huge volume.
4. Basing on the volume and pattern of trade, the bulls are obviously active and charging. They will spare no effort to secure a good price for the warrants to be listed and quoted in the coming days.

5. And that means the underlying shares must perform.

6 Technically, MN undergoes a price pattern of a hammer in the candlesticks chart. A hammer happens when the share price trade significantly lower than its opening price but rallies within the period to close near the opening price.

7.MN mirrors this trading pattern. It opened at 29.5 sen and quickly fell and hit 25.5sen and bounced back to close at 29.5 sen to form a hammer. Technical hammer is a potential bullish reversal.

8 Hence, price will continue to strength and is realistically expected to recover lost ground in the coming days leading towards the listing of warrants.

9 Still there is money to be made if you dare.

10. This is my personal perception of the counter

24/2/2023

MN holding has announced its 2Q result today.
It reported a 57% jump in revenue and 115% increase in profit

2. It has order book of 325.9m an increase of 89% from 172.2m since listing.

3. Management envisions a bright prospect for the company and the contracts are expected to contribute positively over the next 2 to three financial years.

4.Market believes the positive result will sustain the current share price and may be even elevates it further upwards.

20/2/23

1.Yes, it is effortlessly possible. It is happening and yet surprisingly not many are interested in this counter. The price you had wished for and may be even better will be accomplished when it moves closer to the x date. \

2.The substance in MNHolding is in the forthcoming warrant. It is structured and created in a manner to reward and benefit the owner and his long term loyal investors. It could be you and for those who dare.

3.For 2 existing shares you are given 1 free warrant on 24th Feb 2023. Its conversion price has been fixed at 20 sen.

4. Assuming today is the x date for the purpose of analysis,and at the current price of 38.5 sen the reference price would be[ (2 x 38.5) + 20 ] / 3 is 32.5 sen
Therefore the warrant tentatively has an intrinsic value of 32.5 minus 20 = 12.5 sen.

5 It could be better because warrant has a conversion price and a maturity date.
And hence, it has an intrinsic value plus a time value.

6.Trading in warrants in highly lucrative owing to its high gearing.
High gain is naturally associated with high risk.
Therefore, trade cautiously and great care must be exercised.
Do you still want the MNHolding warrants?.

12/2/23

After much anticipation,MN Holding finally announced the X date for the bonus issue of free warrant. For every 2 existing shares you hold until market close on 23/2/23 you are entitled to 1 free warrant on the 24th Feb.

Over the past few weeks, the share price has gone up a few sen. Naturally, the bonus will sustain the elevated share price. With a bit of luck, it might even advance further upwards.
9/2/23

1.Share price of MN holding has gradually advanced since 2 months ago in December.. Its momentum has gather strength and consistently throttled upwards. Yesterday it has firmly conquered new height with moderate volume.

2.The path going upwards is supported by the reward of the forthcoming bonus issues of free warrants.
3.Bursa has approved the bonus issue. EGM has been convened and shareholders approval obtained. Market is awaiting its announcement of the entitlement date and X date any time soon.

4.MN holding has been relatively quiet and illiquid since listing. It has only recently exhibited some interest and excitement in the market.

5. Technically, it has established a golden cross and the distance between the 20 day and 50 day moving average continue to widen. Therefore the long term uptrend is expected to continue. At 35 sen, the price which is now above the 9 day 20 day and 50 day moving averages is a sign of strength and has further prospects of advancement.

6. Likewise, the MACD line has also crossed the signal lines. we can expect the MACD line and signal line to again widen in the coming days indicated by the larger green histograms. The positive momentum is expected to continue.

7. Fundamentally, the company has Rm365m worth of projects and orders on hand with earning viability until 2025.

8. With these orders on hand top line and bottom line as well as future earning growth are realistically expected.

9. Market is awaiting its announcement of x date and the date of entitlement of free warrant. The bonus issue is positive and price sensitive.
When this happens, the share price will be turbocharged.

10. Hence, it is unwittingly wasteful to further delay in action and miss out on the golden opportunity.

Happy trading.
4/1/2023

1.Today waseong opened and raised strongly during the trading session. It opened at 75 sen and reached an intra day high of 81.5 sen and thereafter experienced a massive sell down to close flat at 75 sen over huge volume exceeding 24 million shares.

2. In the candlestick chart the price movement and trading takes the shape and pattern of a shooting star or invert hammer.

3. Shooting star is a bearish candlestick in an uptrend as in Waseong. Clearly, profit taking has set in and the uptrend has lost and continued loosing its upwards momentum.

4. The implication of a shooting star signify that a reversal pattern has begun and will accelerate in the coming days.

5. Further selling and weakness in price is realistically expected.

6. Technical has prominently overshadowed fundamental.
2/2/23

1. In the last 3 years Waseong had a spectacular fall from 1.45 in mid 2020 and hit bottom at 40 sen in 2021. Thereafter, it consolidated within a range of between 55 sen sen to 80 sen until July 2022.

2. Since then, the counter has staged a mini bull run and a confirmed uptrend supported by the announcement of project and award in the oil & gas industry from Yinson which is valued at 557.6 m.

3. The uptrend and its 1st leg began at 55 sen and soared to reach 68 sen for a gain of
13 sen. The 2nd leg which is a correction leg saw the counter retracted to 62 sen. That is a decline of 6 sen or 46%.

4.Early Jan it resumed its uptrend and kicked into the 3rd leg which is an up leg. Price has moved from 62 sen,and decisively broke the resistance at 68 sen and aggressively pushed upwards to reach an intra-day height of 77.5 sen to close the day at 75 sen which was down by 1.5 sen.
5. Technically, the trading day on 31st Jan is represented by a prominent red bar in the candle stick chart. This red bar is known as the 1st day reversal of the 3 leg uptrend. Those who rely on technical analysis to trade would have sold at 75 sen before market closed.
6.If there is any truth with technical analysis it also means the 4th leg which is a correction leg has kicked in yesterday. How much is the correction and by how much price will fall before its resume its uptrend and accelerate into the 5th leg.

7. The 2nd leg retraction was 46% but the 4th leg retraction would usually be mild because the uptrend has been confirmed and advanced into it course. Investors are conscious and aware of the project, company prospects and future earnings.

8. Many will hold onto the shares and endure the fall. If this observation is served as a guidance share price would arbitrarily retract milder say 35%.
Now, 35% of 15 sen is 5.5 sen. If you take 77.5 sen minus 5.5 sen that would mean 72 sen .
9. Technically, it will hit 72 sen or maybe slightly lower before the counter will resume its 5th leg uptrend. From thereon it can possibly go sky high unless impacted by a fundamental change that has a material impact on the profit performance and earning per share.
10. This is my personal perception and technical opinion of the counter and it is not intended to influence your trading strategy and investment plan.
1/2/2023

To a serious investor who cares about fundamental would easily realize that this company has little or no investment merits. They made many missteps to destroy the capital structure by enlarging the shares capital and decimated to negative earning per share to become eternally a penny stock.
I have written and posted a write up here on 12th June 2021. To the die hard supporters of Tawin it offers an alternative view.

1. Yes and truly we don't know why and much less understand its decline and continued weakness in its share price. In my opinion the current share price does not reflect its profit performance its fundamental and future value of the company.

2. Hence, the continued weakness in share price actually opens up an opportunity for you to invest in a great company at a fair price. The jewel of Sunway is in the health care business. It is profitable, scalable and sustainable.

3.Share investment is about buying a good stock, ignore the noise and holding onto it with endurance and perseverance. Sunway has all the ingredients of a long term value investing stock.

4.When they have a corporate exercise to raise fund by issuing Sunway PA, I wrote about it and invested in it. The Sunway PA has its shortcoming. It is absolutely boring and highly illiquid.

5. But, no one is complaining. At 155 it has grown 55% in 2 years. Investors are collecting 5.25% yearly interest and fearlessly waiting for it to mature and be naturally converted into mother share. The number of issued preference share is 997m and Tan Sri and Family is holding 70%.
Can it go wrong?. You be the judge.
20/1/2023

Tomorrow Jan 13th company will convene EGM to obtain shareholders approval to approve the bonus issue of 204,375,000 free warrant on the basis of 1 free warrant for 2 existing shares held on an entitlement date.
This is a kind gesture by the management to reward its long term shareholders. The corporate exercise would firmly support the share price.

Disagree.
Would appreciate if you could kindly share what is fundamentally good about this company.

1.When insiders are buying,do not ignore the implications of their action. More often than not they know some things of changes in value about the company which you are not aware.

2. When the investment bank initiate a coverage or issue a technical analysis and trading idea 2 days ago,do not underestimate its power and influence. They have followers.

3. When the volume increase and the funds start buying, it is not a one off transaction for some contra profit. They will follow through with energy and passion plus a deep pockets.
5/1/2023

1. On 9th Dec Tunepro had a golden cross between the 9-day EMA and the 20-DAY EMA. This signals a short term bullish outlook. In additional again on 21st Dec another golden cross was formed and this time between the 20-day EMA and 50- day EMA thus, indicating a long term bullish outlook.

2. Tunepro closed at 31.5sen with intra day height of 33sen is above the
9-day,20 -day and 50- day moving average. It has demonstrated excellent strength in share price performance. It is hope that the momentum would persist and raise above the 200 day moving average to firmly determine the beginning of a new uptrend.

3. The MACD line crossed from below to above the signal line on 9 Dec. The gap between the 2 lines has also widen and accompanied by larger histograms. Hence, positive momentum is building up and continuing.

4. The Price- Volumn Analysis; This rise in share price these past few days was accompanied by comparatively higher volume traded. An increase in price accompanied by higher volume traded confirmed new buying interest and confidence shown to the counter.
5. Therefore,basing on the technical charts and those indicators, it would be wise to maintain the long position and hold onto the shares for longer term value investing.

6. And likewise, it would be unwittingly wasteful and reckless to liquidate the long position prematurely for a tiny profit.
1/1/2023

1. Directors and insiders purchases are a sign of confidence and positive conviction in the prospects and future earning growth of the company. These are the people who know best and have the most up to date information about their company. Hence, directors buying its own company shares and continuing in its efforts are certainly worth examining.
2. One of the greatest investors of all time Peter Lynch was noted as saying that
" insiders might sell shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one ; they think the price will rise"
Hi guys get into action and excitement. Ride on their knowledge and expertise and profit from it.
31/12/2022

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 28): Toyo Ventures Holdings Bhd's units have entered into an interim agreement with a consortium led by Sunway Construction Group Bhd (SunCon) to negotiate details for the consortium to undertake a US$2.2 billion (RM9.73 billion) job for the development of a 2,120 MW coal-fired power plant in Vietnam.

The agreement sets out the framework for negotiations and discussions between the parties to establish the detailed terms and conditions about the contractor's performance in design, engineering, procurement, manufacture, supply, construction, erection, testing and commissioning of the electric generation facility.

1.While operating cash flow is important, free cash flow is more crucial and net cash flow is significantly more critical. Temporarily, SGC has non of the latter two. And they are the heartbeats of business.
2. This is not surprising considering that scg collects its accounts receivable calculated by taking 222m divided by 637 multiply by 365 is 127 days.
3. it pay its accounts payable with lighting speed computed as follows.
Assuming 85% of 637m is purchases or 541m the accounts payable balance is 52m.
so the AP turnovers is 541m divided by 52m is 10.4x in a year or 35days.
4. See they pay creditors in 35 days and receive money from their accounts receivables debtors in 127 days. it is almost suicidal.
5. The accountant has enormous opportunity and room for improvements. More stringent credit control and efficient strategy need to be formulated and implemented to strengthen its collection.
6. otherwise continued and prolonged negative cash flow would require new funding to address the shortfall in working capital requirement. It could be further bank borrowings or corporate exercise of fund raising through right issue or private placement. All of which are discouraged for they are value and share price destruction.

1.The market PE is 13x. SCG is trading at 29 sen and a running 4-quarter earning per share EPS of 1.61 sen. Hence, it is trading at a PE of 18x. That is inordinately and disproportionately higher than the bursa PE. And that rates and ranks SCG more attractive, over and above a blue chip counter.

2 Despite its recent bonus issue of free warrant and numerous announcements of new contracts, sadly its share price has continued on its decline and its daily volume traded has severely reduced. What happens ?
3. The recent announcement that the company has secured 293m power cable supply contract with Tenage; 83m power cable supply with SEB; and its aspiration to export 100m value of cable to the US market is remarkable and commendable. The new business is 476m. Let's take a look at these letters of award and happy problems that come with a burden.

4. In the 3rd quarter ending September the company's revenue was 238m. the cost of goods sold was 225m and gross profit was 12m. Therefore the percentage of CGS and GP is 94% and 6% respectively.
5. To finance 476m new business the company would need 0.94 x 476m and that is 447m to finance raw material requirement and working capital.
6. Notice that the company has a cash balance of 19.7m and generate a negative cash flow of (-29.528m) This means the company needs more cash than the business can generate. The above new order will further aggravate the cash position and working capital requirement that is already distressed.

7 IN 2019 the company has 130m in account receivable. In 2020 the account receivable was 158m and these numbers had ballooned to 199m in 2021 and 222m in the 9- month of 2022. If you take 222m divide by the revenue of 637m multiply by 365 days, the collection period work out to be 127 days. That means it takes the company 4 months plus 7 days to collect payments after delivery. If the speed of collection can be increased and the days of collection can be reduced this would strengthen the working capital.

8. Considering the current situation in which it was awarded huge supply contract, the company has a happy problem that comes with a heavy financial burden. It is not unlikely that the company might have to look at various option to raise fund for working capital and to finance the new business.
9. The company has 197m in borrowings and 283m in total equity. Therefore the gearing is 197 divided by 283 is 69.6%. Sixty percent is considered a high gearing. By accounting standard any numbers beyond 60% signify the company has entered into a red zone

10. It will be interesting to see the next course of actions from the management. Share price will remain depressed and volume lackluster until this matter is resolved.
11. Friend. cut loss and move on. This is my personal perception of the counter.
It may or may not be correct.
21/12/22

1.Thank you for your analysis and contribution. Appreciate your advice and points of concern on the weakness of its balance sheet, income and cash flow statement.

2. My posting is intended to share an alternative view and my personal perception of the counter. It may or may not be correct.

3. Going forward , let's allow the natural forces of supply and demand to determine the long term equilibrium share price of Astro.

1.Since 2014 till the present day Astro has never have a loss year. In fact it has been generating profit between 450m and 770m every year and given out about 91 sen cumulatively in dividend for the past 9 years.

2.It is a well managed company with sustainable business that has demonstrated excellent resilience in a fiercely competitive operating environment. Judging by the distribution of cash dividend and its yield, the company is indeed a cash generating machine.

3.Just because Astro has a bad quarter,it is not doom and much less Holland. One undesirable and less than attractive financial quarter does not define ASTRO.

4.This is a bias perception and is akin to someone picking a beautiful white cat and search thoroughly all over its body, found a black hair then shout out it is a black cat.
17/12/22

1. Astro has experienced a major down trend for the past few months. The share price has collapsed from a height of 1.10 and hit bottom at 64 sen then inched up somewhat to close at 71 sen today. Market has expected the poor result and deterioration in profit performance. The fall in share price has preceded several months before the announcement of bad result today. Hence, to a great extend, the quarterly result has largely been factored into the declining share price.

2.When market opens tomorrow, there will be some selling pressure and fall in price. However,considering the remarks from its press release that the company still record a normal PATAMI of 73m and the decline in profit is largely attributed to the appreciation of USD against the Ringgit the quantum of fall in share price will therefore be limited and constrained in my opinion.

3. When this happen, it should not be alarming. In fact it opens up an opportunity to enter at a lower price level and ride on the bright prospect and great business of Astro for long term value investing and capital appreciation.

4. Share investment is about identifying a great company that has missed one or two quarterly performance like ASTRO or overwhelmed with bad news like ARMADA few years ago so much so that the share price has collapsed to an unthinkably low level, we want to buy them and accumulate more fearlessly. Otherwise, it is unwittingly wasteful.

1. In 2021 the revenue was 659.93m and the net profit was 10.929m. therefore the net profit margin was 1.6%. for the 9-month 2022 the cumulative revenue is 637.7 and profit is 9.07m. Thus, the net profit margin is 1.56%.
2. Basing on these numbers it is reasonably safe to assume that the company's profit margin is 1.6% on less.
3. This also means it has to send out a team to do marketing to sell the cables. it needs to purchase raw material copper to produce the products, ensures its quality, delivery on time and wait 2 months to collect its payment.
4. For all this troubles and risk, SCG gets 1.6% returns on its effort. This number indicates inefficiency in resource management and non effectiveness of its capital employed.

5.To criticize constructively, brutal and unpleasant in the fiercely competitive business environment if you are unable to secure a fair return, it is better off not manufacturing and instead invest with the bank, put it in FD and earn 3% risk free rate.

1 Upon closer examination one would notice that SCG has 800m issued share capital and a 4 rolling quarter EPS of 1.61 sen. At 30sen share price it is therefore traded at a PE price earning of 18.4x
2. The company has enormous borrowing of 191.6m term loan and 6.17m short term borrowing for a total borrowing of RM197.78m. Considering that the market capital is 236m hence, the borrowing of 197.7m represents significantly 83% of the entire company.
3.The company has a cash balance of 19.7m and generate a negative cash flow of (-29.528m) This means the company needs more cash than the business can generate. And hence, considering that it is transacting business beyond 750m annually, 19.7m cash is seriously lacking in working capital.
4. The company generate net profit between 10m to 12m a year. Because of its exceptionally high borrowings scg paid RM5.976m to the bank as interest payment.. This also means that for the 1st six months in a year the company is actually working for the banks.
5.The company had very recently gave its shareholders 400m that is 1 for 2 free warrants. Well,nothing is free in this world. What ever you have profited from the free warrant had been offset by an even bigger fall in the mother share price.
6. The exercise price of the warrant 27.5sen was intentionally set at below the mother share price to enhance its attractiveness. Upon warrant conversion years later the enlarged issued share capital would be 800m + 400m that is 1.2b shares.
7. The will be damage arising from the diminished earning per share upon fully dilution.

8. In conclusion after examining the balance sheet, profit and loss account and the cash flow statement of the company, the attractiveness of SCG may have been somewhat over rated.
14/12/22

If last year's announcement date is observed than Astro is expected to announce its 3rd quarter result on 9th Dec Friday.

Leasing Corp bought 50 million shares and increased its stake in KUB to 17.97% According to Bloomberg data the shares were transacted at 55 sen or RM27.5 million in total.

In my opinion,this transaction signified their confidence in the leadership and management of Johari Abdul Ghani the former Finance Minister.

extracted from the press release.
Pursuant to MFRS 15, development profit from two of the Group’s on-going property
development projects in Singapore will only be recognised upon completion and
handover of the projects, which is expected to be in FY2023. The accumulated profit
of these projects amounted to RM101.7 million, of which RM14.2 million was recorded
in the current quarter, but was not recognised.

2023 will definitely be a good year.

This company had in last year Dec completed a 20% private placement and raise RM97m for development and repayment of bank loan.
This year again propose to undertake 30% private placement to raise RM73m.
Placement shares enlarged share capital, destroy and dilute earning per share thus causing the share price to fall seriously.

In the year 2018 SPSetia had an intra day high exceeding Rm4.01 or thereabouts. Since than it was undergoing a protracted and massive down trend and decline in share price. Just last week it hit bottom at 41sen and rebounced a little and now somewhat stabilize at 51sen.
Form the high and low the share price has dropped 4.01 minus 41 is Rm3.6

SP has 4075m share. This also means 4075 x 3.6 = Rm14.67b in market capital has been wipe out. The share price has bounced back from 41 to 51, a gain of 10sen or RM407m in market cap. Long term investors are still suffering massive losses despite its massive re bounce in recent week. The covid and its aftermath, the ukraine war, supply chain disruption, raising cost of fuel and steel and the slow down in the property market has collapsed the share price. With all these issues and challenges it will need a lot of time for SP to regain its glory days and require great endurance and perseverance for investors to recoup their losses.

would you subscribe for the RCPS?
Assuming you have 100 existing shares,than you are allotted 67 rights to subscribe for the rcps at 38sen. The 67 RCPS can be subsequently converted into 32 mother shares.
If you subscribe you would have to pay 67x38= Rm25.46
It can be converted into 32 mother share and at current price of 50sen it also means the the value of your shareholdings is only 32x50= Rm16.
Hence, you pay 25.46 for something that is worth 16. Would you?

At the current price of 50sen and the predetermined conversion ratio of 67 : 32 means the conversion price is (67 x 38)/32 =79.5sen. This is 29.5sen above the current price of 50sen or 29.5/50 = 59% premium.
The good thing about the rcps is that it comes together with 5.43% interest payment. It will be quoted and listed in 2 day's time. Except for the 5 year time value, it has no intrinsic value. Therefore, any meaningful value ascribe to the Offer of rights is least expected. This is my personal perception and it may be incorrect.

On a long term basis anything below 60 sen is still a good buy. We buy YTL shares for long term sustainable dividend with high yield at 10- year historically low price. At the current price of 57 sen a 3 sen dividend has a yield exceeding 5%.

I have read the article in which you have posted on 30th Sept. It was very analytical and informative, rich in contents and substances, lengthy and painstakingly compiled highlighting all the valuable ingredients of a long term value investing stock. Truly appreciate your fine effort. The contents are useful and beneficial and i therefore recommend any serious investors to read it and profit from it.

whoever executed the 19m shares transaction this evening could also have accumulated it over 5 to 6 days by buying 3m shares at 56sen daily. In this case he only needs to pay 19mx0.56=Rm10.64m instead of 19mx 0.58=rm11.02m. He would enjoy a cost saving of rm11.2 minus 10.64m = RM380,000. This is huge money in 6 days.
Although such transaction is strange and the extra cost somewhat irrational, i tend to believe that for someone who can afford exceeding Rm10m in one transaction surely knows what he is doing and certainly not unwittingly wasteful. Hence, follow the big guy. Will it go wrong?

Listing requirements require that transaction of company share buyback must be reported and announced on the same day on the Bursa website. The fact that YTL did not make any announcement regarding any share purchase has clearly indicated that the shares were purchased by some institutions, local or foreign funds. In anyway the transaction is positive and large volume buying indicates enthusiasm and demonstrates confidence on the prospects of the company.

During pre-closing, someone buys 19m shares up 4 bids to close 58 sen is truly impressive. If tomorrow follows through and closes upwards with big volume, than it is indicative of something good is imminent. Perhaps, the investing public has just begun to notice the DPS , the November x date and the exceptionally high dividend yield.

Dragon 328 wrote. I copy n paste
"Back in 2014-2015, YTL was giving out dividends of 10 sen to 12 sen every year, and has distributed total dividends of RM28 billion over the years".
Is this true?

Between 2001 to 2011 (10 years) YTL has issued share capital 1.8b shares at 50sen par value.
1. During this period it has distributed 15% cash dividend and at 50sen par value it is 7.5sen. SO dividend distributed over the 10 years were 1.85b shares x 7.5sen x10 yrs = Rm1.3875b

2. In 2011 YTL has a corporate exercise to split the shares 5: 1 and the par value was reduced to 10sen and the share capital was enlarged to 1.85x5=9.25b say 10b shares
Together with the distribution of treasury shares plus ESOS over the years the share capital has enlarged to 11b shares today.

3. From 2012 onwards YTL has distributed the following dividends over the years.
2012 =3sen
2013 =3sen
2014=10.5sen
2015=9.5sen
2016=9.5sen
2017=5sen
2018=4sen
2019=4sen
2020= nothing. it gave treasury shares 1; 30
2021=2.5sen
2022=3sen with x -date 10/11/2022
The total dividend over the period from 2012 to 2022 is 54sen
Take 11b x 54sen = RM5.94B
Therefore the total dividend distributed was 5.94b + 1.3875b = rm7.32b.

1.Press Metal (PM) the world largest aluminium producer and a great company has a spectacular fall from 740 to 540. It is on a major downtrend and continues to accelerate in its decline. This is an astounding setback for many die hard and determined devotees of PM. However, considering that the EPS of PMetal is only 15.2sen, so at 740 it was trading at 48x price earning. This is incredible and unbelievably over price. Therefore, the collapse is not surprising, in fact it is expected. And what Buffett would say it is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. And PM aptly fits Buffett's investment description at this moment in time.

2.Technically speaking PM is on the 5th leg of a major down trend. Its 1st leg was down from 740 to 600 that was minus 140. The 2nd leg which was a retracement up leg from 600 to 660 was up 60sen. The 3rd leg was a continuation of its fall from 660 to 480 that was minus 180sen and in the 4th leg it had retracted back from 480 to 550 that was 70sen. PM is now on the final 5th leg of decline. Just 3 days ago it was 540 and this morning it is 502 and continues to show signs of active selling with its price trending and accelerating downward.

3.what can happen next?

5th leg is the final leg of decline. when this is completed, it will go into consolidation before a new pattern and trend would appear again.
In the meanwhile If 1st and 3rd leg are observed as a guild than, it is not unrealistic to see PM would decline from 550 with a quantum of fall between 140sen which is the 1st leg and 180sen the 2nd leg
If we take 550 minus 140 that would mean 410sen

4.Does it make any sense or are we bias and what does it means PM trading at 410?
Let us do a quick PE comparison and evaluation.

Considering that the FTSE Composite Index recorded a monthly P/E ratio of 15.58x on MAY 2022 and PMetal has an earning per share EPS of 15.2sen and hence, at 410sen PMetal will trade at 410 / 15.2 = 27x price earning compare to market PE of 15.58x. Therefore at 410 and if it happens it is still trading at an impressive PE and a huge premium as compare to market PE. Therefore it is not unrealistically unachievable. It is possible and a near certainty.

5.SHARE valuation is an art and not engineering science. Therefore PMetal hitting 410 is purely hypothetical and a personal and individual perception. No one can predict that it will fall to this level and much less when this will happen.

6. Nonetheless, PM now has more than 11m shares under SBL according to the announcement on Bursa. It is this group of people who engages in securities borrowing and lending has a great interest in PM.

7. They are determined to see it continues to fall and profits from it.

PERAK TRANSIT 60.5sen
In defence of PTrans private placement to raise 38m cash through issuing 63.4m new share at indicative price of 60sen. Specifically, PP increases the number of issued capital and reduces the earning per share and it is therefore EPS dilutive and value destroying to the existing shareholders compare to a right issue that is offered to all the shareholders instead of a selective group of friendly parties as in a private placement.
Let's analyze and unmask the fund raising private placement exercise.
1. Last year PTrans generated 138.6m in revenue and made 53.2m in profit. Hence the profit margin is 38.3%
2. The company has 634m shares and the EPS is equal to 8.25sen
3 the private placement involves selling 63.47m new share at 60sen and will successfully raise Rm38.08m
4 After the PP the new issued share capital would be 634m + 63.47m and that would be 697.47 m. The current EPS is 8.25sen and to sustain the current status the company would need to make future total profit of 0.825 x 694.47m = 57.29
Therefore, the extra profit needed to cover the additional new shares arising from the PP is 57.29 minus 53.2 is Rm4.09m
5 Considering that the profit margin is 38.3% therefore the extra revenue that must be generated from the placement exercise would be 4.09 / 0.383 is rm10.6m.
This is the burden of the fund raising exercise to raise 38m cash. Specifically, it means the new project and bus terminal must generate new revenue of 10m. The company knows best and would justify it.

6. What are the advantages and beneficial effects of private placement?.
If the 38m comes from a bank loan or bonds, than the company has to pay interest or coupon payment plus principle payment. Assuming 4.5% interest cost that is 1.71m annually. The PP has erased the responsibilities of principle and interest payment that would boost the cash flow of the company.
Interest payment is an expense and the absent of interest payment of 1.71m would boost the profit bottom line by an equal amount.
7 By next YEAR when the new terminal is completed the revaluation and surplus would add great value to the NTA and profit.
8 Ptrans would be able to enjoy and benefit from reinvestment tax allowance from the project investment exceeding 130m per terminal. There would be substantial tax saving going forward. Tax saving boost cash flow and improves the capability to pay dividend higher than the current 3.2sen annually.
9 after a thorough and closer examination and evaluation, fund raising through private placement although EPS dilution is in fact not entirely damaging and hopeless.
18/4/22

On 8th Apr YTL resumed its uptrend and accelerated further to 65.5sen with a more than 30% rise from the bottom reversal of 50sen.

YTL is a front runner in the race for Digital Banking licence. Media report and the investing public believe YTL could potentially secure 1 of the 5 licences. The prospect is bright.
Malayan cement a wholly owned subsidiary in which YTL has recently acquired via cash and mainly share swap has turnaround with 50m profit will continue to sustain the raising share price.
Hence, premature selling could end up in frustration.
Happy trading