1. According to the notes of the account the (-RM894,000) is not Cash Flow from Operating Activities. It is in fact the miserable and negative cash and cash equivalents of the company at the end of 1Q 2023

2. The notes to the accounts clearly specified that the company has 54.713m of which

1. Deposit held as securities value 41.630m
2.Bank balance held as securities value 2.737m
3 Debts service reserve accounts 11.240m

3. Hence the bank balance actually has a deficit shot fall of -RM894,000
Considering the horrendously critical situation of negative cash position, it is therefore, unlikely for Jaks to declare any dividend.

4. Those expecting a dividend will be sadly disappointed. The higher the expectation the greater the disappointment.
Happy trading
13/8/23

This is the jewel of the crown. It is unlikely that Jaks would even entertain the thoughts of a disposal for an assets that has generated 156.2m and 140 7m in 2022 and 2021 respectively.
2. It will not happen for many many more years to come. It is akin to slaughtering the burgeon goose that lays the golden egg. It would be unwittingly foolish and reckless after many years of labour and hard work.

3. If it does happen some time in the future, there will be a huge proposal possibly 200 pages in length contained in a circular and disseminated to seek shareholders' approval in an EGM. Until then, do not jump the gun and unnecessarily burden your mind.

4. In anyway if you really must know and waiting to impress upon your girl friend
(just kidding) you can evaluate the asset in this manner.
Asset valuation is base on earning basis. So just take the earning multiply by a PE multiples of companies in the similar sector of industry.

5. Hence, if you arbitrarily assign a random number PE of say 11.43x similar to YTL Power today, then the asset is worth 156.2m x 11.43 =1.785b in a nutshell.

5. May you be informed and enlightened. Hope it helps.
Happy trading
13/8/23

1.According to the 1Q result announcement ending Mar 2023, Jaks generated a revenue of 14.16m in its business operation on the company level and sadly an operating loss of (- 19.28m) for the listed entity.

2. The dismayed financial performance was fortunately cushioned by the share of profit of 28.32m from the JV and 30% ownership of a power generating and selling plant in Vietnam.
3. The heavy losses of the parent company has been off set by the profit contribution from the JV and resulted in a profit before tax of 9.04m.

4. Despite the seemingly good result, the company actually generated or facing a negative cash flow of ( -12.03m ) in addition to ,a negative cash flow of (-28.77m ) last year corresponding quarter.

5. Hence, the ability of the company to maintain and fulfill a healthy working capital requirement is weaken and seriously deteriorating. It is not surprising Jaks may have to resolve to some corporate exercise to raise fund through a right issue or private placement in the near future.

6. Should this happens,it is value destroying and therefore would seriously dampen the counter's sentiment and investors' spirit and interest.

7. The investment merits for Jaks over the past few years has been centered on the designing constructing, commissioning and selling of electricity in Vietnem. The much anticipated project has been successfully completed and in deed profit generating.

8. Ironically and unfortunately the share price performance of Jaks has fallen sharply and continued in is decline.
WHY??

9. Perhaps, one must understand that the JV with Chinese company in which Jaks has a minority stake of 30% ownership would categorize the investment in the JV as an associate company of JAKS.
10. Therefore, the revenue and profit were sadly not consolidated into the accounts. It shall be reported as gain or loss from JV.

11. Owing to the accounting practice, despite profit from JV company JAKS does not receive cash and as such in no way helping towards strengthening cash flow and working capital.
12.. It is like a swamp of bees coming into your garden feeding on the nectaries of your plants and flowers and fly home to Vietnam to produce the honey which you can see from a distance but cannot touch and much less taste it unless it declares a dividend or Jaks cash out on disposal.
13. Until then, Jaks will continue to face issues and challenges in its business operation. Expected to announce erratic financial performance and has to endure lackluster share price and struggle to sustain it at a hugely diminished level.

14. It is hopeful that the commitment and determination of the management and its desire for success would some day steer the company out of trouble water.

15. This is my personal perception of the counter and it is not intended to influence your investment plan and strategy

Happy trading
13/8/23

1.Traditionally, HS is expected to announce its 2Q result on 25th Aug. Last year it has announced a profit after tax of Rm132.58m for the corresponding quarter.
What would you expect from the forthcoming 2Q announcement?

2.As you may be aware in a related party transaction, Tan Sri has successfully acquired HSMCL from HS. The transaction has been completed in June 2023 and it would be captured into the books and account of HS in Q2.

3.The selling price was RM837m or incredibly 3x the price to book value on a willing buyer willing seller basis.
The related party transaction would result in a one off disposal gain of Rm563.7m for HS. It is expected to improve the EPS by 22.6 sen

4. Hence, one would reasonably expects HS to at least report a profit on 563.7 + 132.5 = Rm696.2m in the forthcoming announcement. Any number lower than 696m would be deem a poor and inefficient quarter relatively. Should it happen, it will shake the counter out of consolidation and negatively and undesirously impact the share price. It will weaken and continue to slide.

5. It is undeniable that HS is undergoing a difficult moment in its business. The balance sheet , P&L and the cash flow statement depict its strengths and weakness. We say and analysis it as it is with a clear and unbiased mind.

6 Fortunately minority shareholders are blessed with Tan Sri who is willing to pay the illogical 3x the PBV for HSMCL to enable HS to receive Rm837m and primarily to repay loan amounting of 650m and to strengthen working capital.

7 HS is indeed facing enormous issues and challenges. The MSCI had excluded the counter in its regional index. The hedge funds had abandoned HS is a portfolio rebalancing and disposed in one go 56m shares at Rm3.62. Since than it has never recovered.

8 It is hope that Tan Sri who is educated and smart, resourceful and talented would persist on with its energy and passion to pull through and recover the loss in market capital exceeding (9.50 minus 3.20 x 2.489b shares) Rm15.68b

9 Best wish and happy trading
11/8/23

1.The development for Mahsing over the past few days was truly and meaningfully encouraging. There was substantial rise in volume accompanied by an upwards swing in share price from 63 sen a week ago to reach an intraday high of 69.5 sen yesterday.

2. Technically ,Mahsing is going through a SHS bottom which is a bullish pattern and formation. It is continuing it its committed effort to scale and conquer new height possibly to hit 73.5 sen in the coming weeks

3. In the coming days, the 3 sen dividend which will go ex date on 8th Sept will support and sustain the share price at an elevated and profitable level.

4. In case Mahsing announces great results at the end of the month, the upwards movement will be swift and furious.

5. This is my personal perception of the counter and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. I could be entirely wrong in my analysis.

Happy trading
10/8/23

Last year Day3 made a profit of Rm6.2m. For the purpose of analysis let's assume there is an excellent earning growth of 15% for 2023. Therefore ,the year end profit would be 6.2 x1.15 is equal to RM7.13m

Hence the EPS is 7.13 / 480m shares is 0.0148 sen

The Bursa PE for the top 30 blue chips company in the country is averagely 12.5x
If Day3 is price at 12.5x PE multiple the amount that could be achieved is 18.5 sen
If Day3 is price at 15x PE multiple it is only good for 22 sen
If Day 3 is price at 20x PE it only deserves 29.5 sen

Day3 closed at 53.sen today. Hence it is selling at a prospective PE multiple of 53.5sen divided by 0.0148. That works out to be 36x .

At the current price of 53 sen , the valuation of Day3 with PE multiple of 36x is extremely astronomical. This explains why even directors are unable to resist the hot temptation. Sell and run with the profit.

IT is not surprising Day3 declines again today. It unavoidable.

Trade cautiously
2/8/23

1.RSS , IDSS and PSS are totally not active anymore. The total RSS is less than 0.1% of issued share capital it is therefore insignificant and thus has been erased from the table of record of Bursa net shot position.

2.Short selling obstacle is removed and paving the way for brighter days
Happy trading
2/8/23

Day3 falls on day four, will slide on day five, again tumbles on day 6 and continues to decline on Day 7 like a Porsche speeding down hill without break is not surprising and inevitable.

2.It is not entirely due to its directors'selling, rather it is valuation. This is because Day3 is simply over valued on day 1.

3. It is not difficult to size up Day3 and ascribe a value to its share price.

4.Last year Day3 made a profit of Rm6.2m. For the purpose of analysis let's assume there is an excellent earning growth of 15% for 2023. Therefore ,the year end profit would be 6.2 x1.15 is equal to RM7.13m

Hence the EPS is 7.13 / 480m shares is 0.0148 sen

5 The Bursa PE for the top 30 blue chips company in the country is averagely 12.5x
If Day3 is price at 12.5x PE multiple the amount that could be achieved is 18.5 sen
If Day3 is price at 15x PE multiple it is only good for 22 sen
If Day 3 is price at 20x PE it only deserves 29.5 sen

6. Day3 closed at 53.sen today. Hence it is selling at a prospective PE multiple of 53.5sen divided by 0.0148. That works out to be 36x .
At the current price of 53 sen , the valuation of Day3 with PE multiple of 36x is extremely astronomical. This explains why even directors are unable to resist the hot temptation. Sell and run with the profit.

7. in the coming days ,the bears will continue to charge violently ahead causing massive destruction in its path and aggressively conquering new territories in the southern region.
8. This is my personal perception of the counter and not intended to influence your investment strategy and plan.
Happy Trading
31/7/23

1. Directors and insiders purchases of its own company shares are a sign of confidence and positive conviction in the prospects and future earning growth of the company. These are the people who know best and have the most up to date information about their company.

2.Hence, directors buying its own company shares and continuing in its efforts because they think the price will rise.

3. Conversely, insiders and directors might sell shares for exactly the opposite reasons. They think the price will fall.

X & Y might know something we don"t know.

Trade cautiously
30/7/23

1, I never thought I would write again on DAY3 especially so soon after the last posting.
GUYS, You have the rights to be furious when you learned about it.. Your independent director abandoned you the moment the chairman strike the GONG on listing day.

2. He was entitled to a pink form and allotted 500,000 shares at 30 sen. According to the company's filing with Bursa and the details of the transaction on 26th July listing day, he disposed 250k shares on opening bell at 65 sen and subsequently in just a few minutes later sold another 250k shares representing his entire shareholding at 70sen.

3. That morning,before the board of directors could meet the media and bankers and public investors for a prearranged press conference, he has already served his own interest and enriched his pocket with Rm187.5k. Not bad for showing up and a day's work

4.Independent directors are lucky and fortunate because unlike founder and major shareholders the SC imposed moratorium of shares upon them. They can only sell some percentage of shares after 6 months and a year.

5.While there is no violation of law when independent director ID sells on opening bell, in stead it is seriously lacking in morale principles and ethical standard .His endeavor reflects a self serving interest and poor standard of conducts by an independent director. Like a deprived child who delightfully grab the drumstick before grace.

5.The roles and responsibilities of ID are bringing an independent judgement to the board for deliberations, especially on the issues related to strategy, performance, risk management, resources, key appointments and standards of conduct.

6. He is supposed to represents and speak up for the minority shareholders and people like you who has invested in the shares of Day3 and still holding onto.

7. Now, holding onto the share of DAY3 is akin to flying on a plane in which the co-pilot has jumped off with a parachute.

8. Some may think I have over reacted. What about you.
9. Tomorrow is T+2 What would you do?

Happy trading
27/7/23

1.On its listing day on 26th July, Day3 opened at 65 sen and within the first 10 minutes hit an intraday high of 73 sen and quickly retreated back to 66 sen with 57m shares done.
2. In the next 10 minutes it continued with its decline to hit the intraday low of 60sen with 85m shares done cumulatively.

3. The counter ended the day with 147.5m shares changed hands and closed impressively at 62.5 sen or more than 100% gains on its IPO price of 30 sen.

4.Despite its first day remarkable and commendable performance, all except the boss and its company are losing money. Those who bought at 63 sen and higher are facing paper loss. At 62.5 sen you break even and only a handful are believed to be not even comfortable with a 2 sen paper gain.

5. Let it again be forewarned. At 30 sen IPO, DAY3 is selling at 23x PE multiple. At today's closing price of 62.5sen, the PE has suddenly shot up astronomically to 46x+

6. By this evening, the investors' feelings that the counter is severely over price is beginning to sink in. Come tomorrow, one would realize that the Bursa PE of all the blue chips counters are averagely 12.5x.
One would question, what on earth has the management of Day 3 done in one day to merit its sky high valuation.

7. Hence, more downside is realistically expected. Not surprisingly,on T+2 the selling pressure could amplify when many forgo their inflated egos to cut loss and move on.

8. In the end,the founder proudly listed its company and successfully raised RM33m for the company and enriched his pocket with RM3.6m. They are not in the business to goreng the share. By tomorrow the management will begin to work and aspire to deliver their promises as lay out in the prospectus.

9.The counter controllers will continue to distribute the remaining shares to naive and uninformed newbies and green investors. Today with 147.5 m shares changed hands, it is already bigger than the 122m number of shares in circulation. Many had contra off their positions.

10. As soon as the distribution is near completion, Day 3 will once again assume its original status being a small cap little known tech stock struggling but aspiring to make it big in the years to come.

11. Sadly, many will become long term investors caged in the highest floor of condominium overlooking the graveyard.

12. This posting is not intended to dampen your investment spirit nor a recommendation to buy or sell. It is purely my personal perception and opinion of the counter. I could be completely wrong.

Happy trading
26/7/23

1. Contrary to your unsubstantiated belief and little understanding ,Mahsing does NOT need promotion.
2. And neither does it seek attention. Not one in a billion chance.The counter has been widely researched and extensively analysed with overwhelming buy call from many investment banks.

3. Mahsing is a star in its own right and the invaluable opinions and perceptions of its Chairman pertaining to property sector are much sought after.

4. Be it investors,stakeholders, bankers and customers, they are proud to be associated with Mahsing whose name and logo is a symbol of trust, quality and professionalism.

5. The share price has inched up impressively since June 19th from 60sen to close at 67 sen today on July 26th with raising volume and continued buying interests.

6 .The bulls have rested and regained its strength. It the coming weeks it will charge upwards again with energy and power.

7. At 67 sen Mahsing is only trading at a PE multiple of 8.7x. The ROE is 5.17% and dividend yield is 4.48%. The net tangible assets is 1.49, therefore its share price is only 45% of NTA.
8. If you have been monitoring Mahsing and watching with folded arms and not lifting a finger this week at 67 sen is a second opportunity.

9. Mahsing has become a hot temptation and it is deliciously yummy.
Would you bite. ?
Happy trading
26/7/23

Appreciate your polite and professional response. I am glad you have found an investing style and strategy that suits and works well. The discussion, sharing and learning together is continuing.
In the meanwhile, let's move on to elsewhere in which energy and passion could be more productive and beneficial.
All the best in our journey in search of knowledge and wealth.
25/7/23

1.DAY3 is scheduled for listing on 26th July. Its IPO has created huge interest and received overwhelming response and has an over subscription of 129.2 times.

2. The company has a public issue of 110m new shares and offer for sale by major shareholders of 12m shares at 30 sen.

3.The listing exercise will raise proceed of Rm36.6m of which Rm33m will go back to the company and RM3.6m will go to the pocket of the major shareholders.

4. The company earned 6.2m in profit and has an enlarged share capital of 480m shares. The EPS is 1.3 sen and with initial public offering price of 30 sen it is therefore selling at a high PE multiple of 23x
Upon listing Day3 will have a market capital of 144m.

5. What will happen on listing day. Will DAY3 collapse spectacularly like RADIUM on debut and never recover or close disappointingly in the red like SKYWORLD ?

6. Considering that the bursa PE is 12.5x and Day3 selling at 30 sen with PE23x is therefore comparatively overvalued. Day3 is not generating sufficient profit to merit its high valuation. Going forward it has to work hard and announce great profit to compress its PE multiple to sustain its current price

7.This is only simple and naive theory of fundamental analysis and share valuation. However,for a small company with 480m enlarged share capital and only 25% or 122m shares are in circulation upon listing ,some opportunistic market players could easily seize the chance and take advantage of the small quantity of floating shares and the economic theory of demand and supply of shares in market circulation to control, manipulate and even dictate the market price.

8. Should Day3 be a targeted company, than its opening price will be sky high. It will be actively traded with volume and price volatility. If you have risk appetite, love excitement and enjoy the adventure of a roller coaster ride then, plan it properly and time it correctly you could be joyfully laughing to the bank.

9. The game could last for 6 months until the moratorium of founders' shares
is lifted. Day3 could mirror PTRB and burn a hole in your pocket.

10. Let's be forewarned and trade cautiously.
25/7/23

1.How on earth can someone handles 40 companies simultaneously while Jack Ma finds it so tough to manage just one Alibaba. Your portfolio is larger than the size of KLCI index comprising 30 stocks. It is an incredulous feat with no logic.

3. Nonetheless, you are not as dumb as what you have said and what the market has thought.

4. In anyway I choose to differ and, agree to disagree with this comments.
Stay focused and loaded on a few stocks to accumulate wealth. Avoid diversification with tiny weightage.
5. All the best
24/7/23

1.Having spent so much time, energy and resource in analyzing HS and yet only invest 3% of total capital depicts pessimism,absence of courage and a complete lack of self confidence and risk appetite.

2. Philosophically,nothing in life is worthwhile unless you take risk.

3.We cannot live our life too cautiously that we do nothing so that we make no mistakes, or only engage in very small things in which the result has no meaningful and significant impact whether success or failure.

4. In the spirit of Nelson Mendela he said and i quote

“There is no passion to be found playing small – in settling for a life that is less than the one you are capable of living.”

5.This is not intended to belittle you. It is hope that these words of wisdom would add to your courage, confidence and optimism.
6. It has enlightened and inspired me and so did you.
Happy trading
20/7/23

1.Technically speaking and basing on the candle sticks chart, the period beginning June 2022 and Mar 2023 Mahsing was trading and forming a Shoulder Head Shoulder Bottom pattern and formation.
2.The left shoulder was completed in Oct 2022 at 54 sen and the bottom head was formed and completed in Dec 2022 at 49.5 sen whereas the right shoulder finished somewhere in Mar 2023 at 56 sen. The neckline was 61.5 sen.

3.Thereafter, Mahsing consolidated and traded side ways awaiting new catalyst to resume its upwards momentum. The moment has arrived in July 2023 following Mahsing's numerous announcement of land acquisitions, housing development, new project launching and JV.

4.As you may be aware several investments bankers have issued analyst reports with overwhelming buy calls. These have created awareness and enthusiasm and investors chased up the shares with interest and volume,advancement and gains.

5. Where do we go from here?
Technically in a candlesticks chart the SHS bottom is a bullish indicators. Once it is formed and share price breakout and breached the neckline, it is technically expected to continue its upwards momentum and the quantum of surge from the neckline is equal to the distance between the head and neckline. That is 61.5 sen minus 49.5 sen or 12 sen.

6. Hence, basing on the technical analysis, I courageously but shamelessly estimate that Mahsing will breach 61.5sen plus 12 sen that means it will hit 73.5 sen minimally in the weeks ahead.

7. Personally, I believe the forthcoming 3 sen dividend and the prospects of earning growth plus market enthusiasm and confidence would further drive up the share price and sustain it at an elevated level.
8. It is still early and those who dare would win.
Happy trading
20/7/23

1. At 29sen and trading at PE of 18.5x, MN is undoubtedly over valued, otherwise fully valued. Although MN is profitable, it is unfortunately not generating sufficient profit to merit its currently high valuation.

2. Despite its numerous announcement of awards of projects, press release ,media engagements and publicity the share price remains depressed and lackluster.
Going forward MN would have to announce a substantial rise in profit and earning to compress the high PE to single digit. Otherwise, 29.5 sen may not even be sustainable.

3.One may want to ask is MN a stock to hold for long term. Is 40 sen achievable and what does it take for MN to reach there?.

4. I would envisage MN being a new kid, small cap and relatively unknown and penny stock to be at most realistically ascribed a PE multiple of 8 times. For it to worth 40 sen at 8x PE it must have an earning per share of 5 sen. This is a management challenge.

5. MN has 408m shares and to achieve EPS of 5 sen simply means it must generate a profit 20.4m. Considering that the 4 running quarters profit performance were (-1.09m) ,1.19m , 2.58m and 3.69m I am of the opinion that 20.4m annually is a highly incredible challenge and realistically unexpected.

6. Investment is about portfolio management and efficient allocation of money and resources. Perhaps, the fund can be more profitably and fruitfully allocated elsewhere or, more specifically invested in an alternative stock that has all the ingredients of a value investing stock.
7.While we remain pessimistic about MN and its future earnings ,it is not altogether useless or entirely hopeless, It simply means the opportunity cost or all the benefits we have to forgo for holding MN instead of the next best alternative stock is abnormally high.
8 MN debuted at 21 sen. It has breached 40 sen in its prime day and awarded shareholders with bonus of free warrants. It is now hovering and struggling at below 30 sen.
9. MN is akin to a diamond that has lost its sparkle and continue to dim.

10. Make your own investment decision. This is just an expression of opinion and definitely not a recommendation to buy or sell. Besides, I could be entirely wrong.

Happy trading
17/7/23

1. I have no qualification and I am not qualify to advise you. My simple write up,short analysis and posting is a new hobby and joyful pastimes. It is for sharing and learning and not intended to recommend and much less influence your investment decision and strategy and its follow up actions.

2. In anyway I wish to express with great delights, I have a predetermined criteria in stock selection. And, I am only interested in companies that exhibit these elements.

3 Always remember, nothing drive up share price except profit. Share valuation is base on earning basis and it is determined by the earning per share EPS times a PE multiple. So,the greater the profit the higher the EPS and hence, its share price. Therefore, profit is of utmost importance in identifying and selecting good company for investment.

4. Choose a company that is trading at low PE preferably less than 10x. Compare and contrast the PE with other companies in the similar sector of industry to evaluate its position and standing. This will provide an understanding whether the stock is over price or under price compare to its peers.

5. Study the effectiveness and the ability of the company and its management to utilize its capital and equity to generate returns. Look into its Return on equity ROE, return on assets ROA,and return on capital employed ROC.

6. Invest in companies whose business generates cash that strengthen cash flow and working capital. Study cash flow statement to see whether the company generate free cash flow, net cash flow or negative cash flow. We need to know if the company makes profit, where does the money go. Some company consistently makes huge profit but generate no free cash flow. That is a red flag as in Serba Dynamic. Now we know the profit is unreal but creative accounting. It is unwittingly reckless to invest in company that makes huge profit but has no money and continually needs to raise fund through rights issue and private placement.

7. While debt is good but too much of it is bad. Look at the company's gearing ratio that is the total debts divided by total equity. A gearing ratio of 25% is healthy, 50% is high and at 60% the company has entered into a red zone. It is considered a high risk company. It causes fear and anxiety to stakeholders, bankers and suppliers. To understand the adverse and harmful impact of high gearing just look at what happened to Hap Seng. It has a gearing ratio of 79.5%. Share price collapsed spectacularly and erased 16b in market capital. So avoid company with high gearing.

8.Pick a company that pays dividend. Does the company have a dividend policy. Why is this important? In case share price moves against you, the dividend would provide some comfort. It also signifies that the company is strong and has a healthy cash flow and working capital.
9. Select companies with sound and capable , transparent and honest management with great energy and passion to pursue long term mission and vision. For example YTL the next phrase of long term growth is in data center, digital banking, Sunway is moving towards 3000 beds with 8 hospitals to become the largest healthcare provider in the country.
10. If you can find a stock with all these ingredients, than buy and stay invested and ignore all the daily market noise.
10 Enough for you to ponder and think about. Hope it helps and may you find it useful.

Happy Trading
15/7/23

1.This is a different, alternative and somewhat dissenting view. HS has collapsed from almost 10 in its prime days to 3.2 currently and erased 16b in market capital in the last 6 months.
2. The bears had been overworked and now recuperating and hence, HS and its share price are undergoing consolidation with declining volumn and dwindling interests.

3. While the sharp fall has ceased and the momentum of decline had eased, but the weak undertone and the weakness in fundamental and business operation strongly persist. Hence, the continued diminishing returns and reduction in profit performance is real and imminently forthcoming.

4.HS and its versatile management has resolved to numerous assets disposals to generate cash to improve working capital and reduce debts and dangerously sky high gearing ratio.
5. Do not underestimate and much less ignore the damaging impact and negative effects of abnormally high gearing.

6. MSCI cut off you,fund managers abandoned you, bankers shunned you, institutions and smart smart investors left you.
7.If this is not resolved loyal and die hard investors could be in for another rude surprise.

8.June has just ended and the 2nd quarter result is sealed. The direction of share price going forward is greatly dependence on its profit performance. Notice that CPO price remains low, construction lackluster, trading and services sluggish. it is like Mercedes going downhill without brakes
9. Many believe it is not rosy. What about you?
Trade cautiously.
14/7/23

1.Several brokerage houses had done extensive research and analysis on Mahsing. All of them have an overwhelming buy call and ascribed realistically achievable and high target price arising from new launching and property development ,revenue and earning growth.

2.The counter has drawn some attention since July 2023. Visibly, there were huge buying interest and the daily volumn trade had increased progressively and share price had inched up encouragingly.

3. Interestingly, the daily volumn traded for the last 30 day has increased from a low of 509k to a high of 9.98m shares. There had been great evidence of serious accumulation in the last 8 trading days.

4.Today on 13/7/23 the 9.98m shares were on T+2 and the daily volumn transacted was merely 2.52m. It meant the key buyers did not dispose to contra the transactions,instead they picked up the shares. This implies the accumulation is still continuing.

5. It is believed that the recent news flow about land acquisitions, JV and planned new launching and housing development in the second half would attract new investors and sustain buying momentum and raising share price.

6.Personally, I think Mashing has all the valuable ingredients of a long term value investing stock. Over time, share price will move higher slowly, surely and safely.

7. It will sustain and stay elevated by its 3 sen upcoming dividend and potential jump in profits and earnings.
8. At 63 sen, Mahsing has a dividend yield of 4.76%, ROE of 5.17% and a surprisingly low PE of 8x

9.This is the most opportune time.
Are you still contemplating, would you take the plunge?
Happy trading
13/7/23

1.Prices reflect all information about the company. Positive information moves up share price and conversely, negative information push down share price. Otherwise, share price will remain in consolidation or inactive unless acted upon by new news.

2. Therefore one must constantly keep abreast of news flow such as award of projects, acquisition of land for example,and specifically in the case of MN it is a court case involving the default of payment by vendor.

3. This forum provides an avenue and allows members to analyse and interpret the meaning of the news and the impact it has on share price. It is of utmost importance in investing.

4. This forum is also for sharing, learning and earning together. My posting is unbiased and say it as it is. It is not intended to inference your investment decision.

5 And Frankly, not intended to irritate you.

Happy trading
13/7/23

1.Court case invites negative and unwanted publicity.

2. In general,any company would expect timely payment for work done and goods and services delivered. Cash sale is excellent and most preferred. 30 days term is good, 60 days is bad and barely acceptable, 90 days and beyond is horribly bad and damaging.

3. In MN's case it has to institute court proceedings to receive payment for service rendered and work done. It is horrendous, unthinkable and a failure in credit control and project management.
4. The process incurs legal cost and energy ,quality time and valuable resources that could be employed more productively in real business matters.

5. Considering that MN being a very small company with profit ranging between 1.5m to 3.5m a quarter, hence Rm1,051,012 is considerably a significant amount and seriously detrimental to cash flow and bank balances.

6. Besides, the proceeding reflects bad vendor and business partners relationship and give rise to negative publicity and counter sentiment, impedes upwards momentum and obstructs raising share price.

7 Therefore, material litigation regardless being a plaintiff or defendant is view negatively by the investing public.

8 This is my perception.
12/7/23

Allocating 3% of fund in a counter is an investment strategy. Buying into HS is a stock pick.

Spreading your fund thinly over many counters is diversification to reduce risk and
stock pick comes after thorough and vigorous analysis of fundamentals, strength and weakness of balance sheet, P&L and cash flow statement for capital gains.

Good investment strategy with bad stock pick yield heartache and frustration. It is akin to having a strong bow and arrow and missing the bullseye.

Aim accurately with a single arrow.
11/7/23

They have court case involving Rm 1,051,012 according to its filings with Bursa yesterday.
11/7/23

1.PV has 20.9m shares of which 12.5m were acquired via off market transaction quite recently probably at 38 sen. It has started selling and strangely even at a loss.

Until they stop disposing , I see little chance for MN to go up. As to the reasons why they sell, I really do not know. Maybe there is a serious fall out with management.

2. In addition, MN is trading at 29 sen and a 4-quarter running PE of 18..25x
Considering that Bursa PE is 12.5x, MN is therefore somewhat overvalue.

3. Hence, it is not going anywhere Consider it a blessing that it is not falling.
10/7/23

1.HS has 1.8b money market deposit and 1.1b cash and bank balance. Therefore the total cash balance is 2.9b

2. It has long term borrowing of 4.67b and short term borrowing of 2.54b. Hence, the total borrowing for HS is astronomically high at 7.21b.
The net debt 7.21b minus 2.9b is 4.3b

3. A more critical approach to evaluate the strength and weakness, safety and risk of a company is to calculate the gearing ratio. Gearing is a measurement that indicates to what extent is the company's financial leverage are funded by shareholders' funds versus creditors' fund. The higher the gearing the greater the risk.
4. HS has total shareholders' equity of 9.06b

5 Gearing is total debts divided by total equity. That is 7.2b divided by 9.06b. The gearing for HS is horrendously high at 79.5%. That means close to 80% of HS business are funded by creditors' fund. That is scary. It goes to show that the company has been spending money indiscriminately,freely and frivolously like a drunken sailor.

6. The share price of HS has fallen from almost Rm10 in its prime to Rm3.2 currently and erased market capital of 2.489b shares x (-6.8) -Rm16.9b. The number is incredibly huge and crazy, yet it is true.

7. The high gearing of 79.5% is fatal and it has consequences. Morgan Stanley MSCI has excluded HS from its regional index, Fund managers adjusted its portfolio and engaged in a programmed sell off of huge quantity in June to ease long term severe financial pain.
8. Rm3.20 may not be sustainable. So, what are you going to do Monday. Are you still monitoring and watching with folded arms without lifting a finger?.
Think about it
8/7/23

1. Noted your dissenting view yet polite and friendly in nature.
Allowed me to express further. The fact that PT has accounts receivables that has ballooned from 41m to 127m clearly indicated that to a significant extent a considerably huge portion of the sales were done on credit term.

2.My belief is further supported by the notes to the accounts in the company's performance review.

3. According to its notes to the accounting on performance review
B1.(i) there is an increase in domestic demand by Rm10.1m and
B1.(ii) there is an increase in overseas demand by Rm62.5m or 215.1% which was mainly attributed to the increase in orders by existing customers in China following the gradual re- opening of China's borders.

3. In the final quarter, revenue has increased by 10.1 + 62.5 is Rm72.6m
4 And accounts receivable has increased from 41m to 127m that is Rm86m

5 This illustration with all the numbers extracted from PTB accounts evidently demonstrated that sale are done on credit term.

6. The numbers are alarming. The management knew it. And they probably might have formulated strategy and policy to rectify and improve the sales collection.

6. All the best and happy trading
8/7/23

1. PTR has just announced its 4Q financial result. Upon closer examination and scrutiny, one would notice that the accounts receivable of PTR has horrendously escalated from 43.1m to 127.1m

2. The company recorded a revenue of 501m. Therefore the Accounts Receivable Collection Period is [127 / 501] x 365 days is 92 days

3. In general any company would aspire to collect its payment as quickly as possible. Competitively a 30-day collection period would be desirous. 45 days barely acceptable. 60 days unthinkable and 90 days suicidal

4. The fact that PTR collects its payment 92 days after its delivery reflects poor credit control and inefficiency. If the condition is allowed to prolong and remain unresolved, it would have disastrous impact on cash flow and working capital. In addition, the provision for bad debts and potential write off is realistically expected in the future.

5. Already, despite its remarkable and commendable profit performance of 18.6m, PTR regrettably generated a negative cash flow of 10.8m

6. Hence, it is not entirely wrong to say PTR has a loose credit control policy and an
inefficient and tidak apa attitude in its collection effort

7. It would be more damaging if the exceptionally long collection period is coming from bad customers in a cash trap situation arising from PTR's hot pursuit of revenue growth and geographical expansion into China.

8. The accounts receivable has ballooned and the minority shareholders are alarmingly concern. More stringent credit control and collection effort is highly appreciated
Happy trading
7/7/23

1.Today on 3rd July Proven venture declared that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder of MN Holding. Previously, on 23/2/23 it acquired 12,250,000 share and increased its shareholdings to 20,920,000 shares and became a substantial shareholders with a 5.118% stake in MH Holding.

2. The shares were acquired probably at the peak of between 38 sen to 40 sen.

3. Hardly 5 months into its investment period and horizon it has begun to dispose small quantity even at a loss. This is puzzling.

4. What is the implication of this disposal action?
It demonstrated that the initial excitement of Proven venture over the MN counter is gone, its interest diminished its hope and dream and aspiration severely dampen.

5 We think share price will remain weak as long as PV continues in its course of action.
Happy trading
4/7/23

It is much better for HOho Ho Santa Clause to refrain from writing and became an unknown than to pen a line with no ingredients and became famous as a man of small mind that gossips about people.
2/7/23

1 The share price of PTR has enjoyed an impressive rise from an intra day low of 39.5 sen to a high of 55 sen in the last 1 month of trading from 26th of May to the last day of June in 2023.That is an incredible gain [ 55/39.5] - 1 of 39.2%

2. Yesterday, it announced a highly remarkable and commendable improvement in profit performance of 846% QoQ and 341% YoY.

3. Can the profit numbers sustain the rise in share price and keep the upwards momentum going forward? Let's analyse.

4.According to the listing prospectus, PTB has enlarged captial of 535m. Founders has no offer for sales and did not cash out during IPO. It has public issue of new share of 135m at 36sen to raise Rm48.6m

5. Employees bought 13.5m shares and the private placement to friendly parties, possibly suppliers, customers, contractors, and people who in some way contributed to the company's success bought 28m shares. Together they are holding a total of 41.5m shares and they are relatively loyal and long term.

6. Founders shares are subject to a 6 month moratorium and restricted from disposal. This situation effectively means only 135m - 41.5m = 93.5m shares are floating in circulation upon listing.

7. The small number of shares make PTR and easy target and an opportunistic condition for manipulation in which price could theoretically could be pump up and dump easily according to the whim and fancy of the undesired manipulators.

8 On hindsight, we have seen share price swiftly soared from 36 sen to 68.5 sen after listing. The spectacular and unscheduled rise specifically during the moratorium period that restricted the major shareholders from selling probably has incurred the rage and anger of the founder.

9 The only way to stop the price manipulation and keep it from going beyond 68 sen and shoot further through the roof to higher up in the sky is to announce a super decline in profit. This could be the reason why PTR announced a shocking 1.96m in the 3rd qtr compared to a 8.3m in the 2nd qtr. In one master stroke, volumn of the counter abruptly disintegrated and volatility suddenly and quickly disappeared.

10. The management has reserved the best for the final quarter and announced a massively impressive profit performance of 18.6m yesterday on 30th of June.

11. Surprisingly, one day before the announcement, major shareholders disposed off 4.05m shares and cash out RM2.1m. Is this a coincidence or are they trying to convey the message that post moratorium they have more bullets to deal with the aggressor as and when necessary.

12. Hence, I think the disposal is intentional and a strategic move by the management to wade out the aggressors. Naturally, PTR welcomes institutional investors like EPF, insurance companies, mutual fund and unit trust, venture capital and high net worth individual to be anchor and long term quality investors. Directors would want to improve the attractiveness and image of its company by having quality and high profile institution in its list of shareholders.

13. Yesterday's closing price of 54 sen and the profit announcement has improved and increased the earning per share EPS to 6.82sen and compressed an otherwise double digit high PE to 7.92x
This PE is more in line with CCK, CAB. LHI, Lay Hong and others in the industry.

14. PTR is now fully valued. This is my personal perception of the counter. Be cautious , my expression of opinion could also be totally wrong.

15. Despite my perception there is still joy and excitement to see PTR soars and when you profit from it.
All the best and happy trading
2/7/23

1. Company announced excellent result. Believe share price will move up and remain elevated in the coming days to reflect its financial performance.

2. My recent guesstimate is somewhat off tangent. Die laughing.
3. Happy trading
30/6/23

1.Unlike driving a Porsche one needs to continually use the rear mirror as a guide, whereas equity investment is about valuation base on future earnings and earning growth.
2.Historical performance has no bearing on the share price.Hence, it is realistically foolish to use past profit and robust performance of EPS to instill and serve as a bullish indicator.

3.It is unwittingly reckless to engage in self denial and constantly entertain the self imposed hypothesis that despite the serious reduction in profit and asset disposal to raise fund for loan repayment, there is nothing wrong with the company simply because in the past it has done very well.

4. we believe it does not work this way.
Be enlightened and trade cautiously
30/6/23

KUALA LUMPUR: MIDF Research is positive on the prospects of Mah Sing Group Bhd’s latest M-series affordable project – M Nova in Kepong here.

In a note yesterday, the research house expects strong sales for M Nova which will be launched in the third quarter of this year as it had recorded an overwhelming registration of interest recently.

“Mah Sing has opened registration of interest for one block of M Nova with 624 units. We gather that registration of interest was overwhelming with 9,000 registered interests.

“Hence, we expect strong sales prospects for this project upon its official launch as we think Mah Sing should be able to convert the strong bookings into property sales fast due to the overwhelming response from buyers,” it said.

M Nova has a total gross development value of RM790mil with an affordable selling price starting from RM318,000 for a 700 sq ft unit.

The expected strong sales from the project should underpin a new outlook for Mah Sing, it said.

MIDF Research noted that Mah Sing aimed to achieve higher new property sales of RM2.2bil in financial year 2023 (FY23) against new property sales of RM2bil in FY22.


STARPICKS
MPOGCF conservation initiatives to protect biodiversity
As such, it maintained a “buy” call for the stock with an unchanged target price of 78 sen.

“We make no changes to our earnings forecast for FY23 to FY25 as new sales contribution from M Nova is expected to underpin management’s new sales target.

“Besides, the developer’s active land acquisition will continue to support new property sales outlook and earnings visibility in the near term,” it said. — Bernama

1.Perhaps you have already known, yet there is no harm to reiterate again amid spectacular collapse in HS to boost investors' confidence.

2. In a related party transaction HS has disposed off HCMCL a credit leasing company to its major shareholder Tan Sri. This disposal transaction has been completed and it will be captured in the accounts and be reported in the next quarter result announcement.

3.The HSMCL is sold for Rm837m cash and the company will record a disposal gain of Rm563.7m
4. This transaction will contribute 567.3m / 2489m = 22.6sen to the earning per share in the coming quarter announcement.

5. The result will provide some temporary relief to the battered share price and momentarily avert the counter from another dizzying collapse. Is this resilient and sustainable, we honestly do not know.

6. The proceed has been earmarked and utilized to repay 650m in bank loan,100m for fertilizers, 50m in the automobile business and 36.4m in trading and services business segment and nothing for special dividend.

7. There is no doubts that HS is expected to report exceptionally huge profit in the coming quarter but the market is understandable least interested.

8. One off disposal gain does not have any meaningful bearing on share price.The fact that the proceed has been earmarked for loan repayment depicts some degree of deficiency in cash flow and working capital requirement.

9. The greatest and most effective catalyst that drive up share price is earning from core business operation in which HS is currently seriously lacking.

10. Hence, until HS reports meaningful earnings from operation, the rise in share price is not sustainable.
11. Therefore, manage your trading to take advantage of the current short term situation until its next profit announcement. Perhaps it is not unwise to sell on strength and profit from it.

12. This is a short term trading idea for those with risk appetite and find joy and excitement in roller coaster ride to light up their life.

Happy trading
28/6/23

1. In the last 3 weeks of trading, investors have been rushing out in a massive sell down to avoid a fatal stampede IN HS. In a surprise fund manager's portfolio adjustment,53 million shares changed hands at 3.62 during pre-closing. Thereafter, shares price continued to weaken and falling a little every other days.

2. Trading volumn has dwindled and volatility is non existence. Over the week still and calmness seem to have returned to HS.

3.Where does it go from here.?
Technically, according to the MACD indicators the 12 days MA line has crossed over the 26 day MA line from bottom to above on the 19th of June. In the following 4 days of trading leading up to its close of 3.11 on Friday, the graph registered 4 green histogram above the 9 day signal line.
4.This is encouraging and it indicates some evidence of buying interest amid the current skeptical fundamental of HS.

5.However, basing on the technical chart of SMA in which the death cross that was longed established and the gap between them has widened with no signs of narrowing.
continue to indicates weakness and lack of market confidence.

6. Daily trading prices have been falling much faster than moving averages and its closing prices have persistently closed below the 12 day MA lines let alone the 26 day line.
7.Last closing at 3.11 is still below the SMA lines. Technically speaking, HS is still in its long term down trend surrounded by bearish market sentiment and diminishing investors' interest and participation.

8. We believe HS is currently caged and will remain in this situation until its next quarter result announcement to determine a more definitive share price direction.

Happy trading
25/6/23

enigmatic & ultranippon18.
I am glad that you read my postings and found the comments useful.

1. Equity investment is not all the time about finding and investing in a STAR company and making profit.
2. It is also about identifying a bad company that is a LEMON you did not invest and avoided a loss.
Capital preservation is important.
18/6/23

1.My friends, sometimes we must learn to let go. Admit your mistake and move on. Forsake your big ego and limit your bigger losses. The world greatest investor Warren Buffett admitted his mistake sold Dexter Shoes and lost 3.5b US dollar and move on. He sold Tasco admitted the mistake that he misread the accounts and lost 444m US dollar and move on.

2.Investors do make mistakes and there is nothing to be ashamed. But if you do not learn from others mistakes and allowed your losses in HS to ballooned astronomically, then it is embarrassing.

3. Anything can happen in the stock market. Share price can jump from 4 ringgit to 30 ringgit and than collapsed spectacularly to 50 sen and now hovering around 1 ringgit as in Top glove. So, HS falling from 9 in its prime days to 3 currently may be huge but still remain unending. The worst is yet to come and the counter is still struggling to find its bottom.
Stock market is cruel and lethal when it goes against you.

4. Everything has a price. So, can we try to put a price for HS?.

5. As you may be aware share valuation is based on earnings multiple.
HS has just reported its 1st Q result and it made 50.7m profit. In less than 2 weeks, the 2nd Q is coming to an end and there has not been much positive changes in the fundamental of the company. Daily CPO prices remain low, property division sluggish, automobile segment unexciting, trading and services are challenging.. Therefore an improvement in profit for HS is not expected. HS could possibly end up with losses in the coming quarter and beyond.
6. For the sake of discussion, let's assume HS is still profitable and choose to annualize the 1Q earnings of 50.7m Therefore the year end profit would be 202.8m
7. HS has 2489m issued shares capital and hence, the EPS is 202.8 / 2489 = 0.081 or 8.1 sen.
8. Now P.Bank is trading at PE 11.5X,
IOI has a PE of 14.6x and Sunway has a PE of 11.7x MayBank has a PE of 12.32x
Now HS is the smallest and ranked the lowest amount these blue chips companies in the country.
9. If we sarcastically assume HS is better then the above mentioned 4 companies in fact it is not and yet assign a PE multiply of 20x, the future value of HS would be 20 x 8.1 is Rm1.62

10. Die hard fans of HS may get excited with falling prices and dream of buying low and averaging down. Be careful what your wish for, Your dream may come true. Just when you think it is safe and share price has stabilize, it surprise you again with a new low.

11. We are not saying that HS will limit down next week. But, the bears are in charged and they will continue to conquer new territories in the southern region and killing you slowly, softly and surely.
12. It is not worth the risk. Many with hard earned money would stay away.
Would you?
Think about it.
16/6/23

If you are having an excellent career courting a gorgeous girl in a great relationship and planning to buy a HOUSE getting married and settling down, would you buy a HOUSE from Radium knowing very well they are famous for construction with material defects and more than 200 customers are suing for compensations?.

2.The reputations and image of the company as a trusted developer is gone.
Customers who are previously proud to be associated with Radium whose logo and image is a symbol of trust and quality are sadly and angrily disappointed. Like enraged bees they came out in hive and they want justice and compensation.

3. The litigation that is currently on going has serious implications and repercussions on the company"s new property launching.

4. Once the news spread, it will be an uphill task to sell any meaningful units in its new launching. Besides, it will continue to face severe competition from Ecoworld, Matrix, Mahsing, SP Setia just to name a few.
5. The current litigation development should not be taken lightly. If it is prolonged and left unresolved it will significant affect new launching and negatively impact future profit and earning.
6. Hence, share price will be severely under stress. It is alarming and nothing good.

7. Let's be forewarned and trade cautiously

15/6/23

The warrant is 3.5 months away from its demise. Already we are seeing zero at 3 market depth. It is unwittingly reckless to queue and buy at 1 sen to average down. You are touching a life wire and it has consequences. Fatal consequences.
Trade cautiously
15/6/23

What is happening with Hap Seng !

1. It reported 50.7m profit for the 1st Q ended March 2023. This is one of the lowest for the last 10 years of financial performance.

2. HS has short term and long term borrowings of Rm7.21b. Its cash balance and money market securities are Rm2.96b. Hence, HS has a net debt of Rm4.25b and in my opinion is inordinately huge.
3.HS has 119.7m from operation and paid 71.2m in interest expenses. Therefore, the interest coverage is 119.7 divided 71.2 is 1.68x. By accounting standard an interest coverage of between 4x to 6x would consider to be strong and healthy. The number tends to suggest that HS is not generating enough profit to service debts and going forward may be struggling to meet payments and other financial obligation.

4.In its filing for the 1stQ result, HS generated a negative cash flow of -Rm288m.

5. The huge borrowings and high gearing has serious implications and if left unresolved could lead to further down grade, and erosion in market capital in addition to the recent phenomenal and catastrophic collapse.

6. A company operating on high gearing is view as high risk. The banks close their doors on you. Fund raising through corporate exercise of right issue would destroyed capital structure and diminish share price.

7. It is not surprising for HS to dispose of its credit leasing business in order to generate RM837m to strengthen its cash flow in the coming months.

8. After the dividend ex date share price remains weak with hugely diminishing volume traded.From 62m shares transacted over the week to 15m to 7.8m, 6.9m,4.3m, 2.5m, and on Friday which was pathetic, the volume traded was merely 1.46m shares.

9. A check with Bursa announcement on the net short position for HS has also reduced from a high of close to 11m shares to slightly over 5m shares now. The short sellers on SBL has recovered a sizable portion of its short covering. Soon they will be gone too.

10. The declining in volume tends to suggest that loyal shareholders has bit the bullet and accepted the fate and losses and moved on to elsewhere.

11. HS will continue to find its bottom and then consolidate before a new trend appears unless acted upon by a new catalyst.

Happy trading
11/6/23

Is the bonus of free warrant really free?.

1.In a short span of time CAB had a spectacular run from 46 sen to its peak at 77 sen. The mini bull was supported by exceptionally good financial performance and culminate to the bonus reward of 1 free warrant for 3 shares.

2.The share price on a cum basis was 71 sen and on ex date it was re adjusted to
[( 71 x 3)+ 63] / 4 = 69 sen
Thereafter the share price has weaken and continued to fall. Today it closed at 62.5 sen and the warrant closed at 12 sen on debut.

3.Those who have followed the corporate exercise would get 1 lot warrant value at Rm120 and acquired 3 lots by paying 71 sen each. The share price has slipped down to 62.5sen and you suffered a loss of Rm255.
Hence your rewards of free warrant is not enough to offset the loss in value of the mother share.

4. Basing on my personal observations and experience the corporate exercise involving free warrants invariably ends up in this undesirable and unprofitable manner.

5.The warrant is a sweetener to induce you to buy the mother shares forming part of the manipulator's devilishly conceptualized game plan to push up the share price that would eventually turned sour.
6. It happened in PTrans, in MNHolding, in Yew Lee and now CAB

7.On hindsight and in all future endeavors with free warrants, it is more wise to forgo the warrant and sell on strength. It is unwittingly foolish and reckless to buy the mother share for the free warrant.

8. We already know there is no free lunch in this world. And,there ain't no tooth fairy.
9 Hope it helps

Happy Trading
7/6/23

1. Last Friday on 2nd of June Hap Seng closed green at 3.48 after many weeks of red and that provided some comfort and reprieve to distressed investors. Just as we thought a trend reversal is imminent, we are again confronted with a rude and shocking surprise with heartache

2. Today, HS resumed its downwards momentum and closed at 339 down 9 sen and 16 sen off its intra day high of 355

3.Die hard fans of Hap Seng must understand that a single instance of a green candlestick does not indicate a trend. And truly, one swallow does not make a summer.

4. HS continues to face challenges and struggling hard to find its bottom and clearly, no one knows how much more it will fall.

5. On 2/2/23 HS had its 1st day reversal and closed with a long red bar after a mini bull run.Three weeks later on 20/3 it established a death cross in which the 9 day MA crossed over the 26 day MA lines from above to below. The gap between the MA lines widen and daily prices continue to weaken and consistently falling and trending below the 9 day and 26 day moving averages lines.
6. A death cross is a bearish pattern and it is a signal for more chaos to come. This happened on 31/5 when the Fund re balance it portfolio and HS faced a phenomenal collapse and a catastrophic falls in share price with volumn and volatility.

6. The RSI relative strength index is at 15.8. The counter is in the over sold position. The bears are active and there is no sign of retreat. This morning the share price advance somewhat and subsequently, resume its downwards momentum and continue to weaken and fall.
7. Technically, HS is in a long term down trend with no sign of bottoming. The RSI and the death cross and the widening of the gap between the moving average lines all point towards a gloomy and extremely bearish position.
The bottom has yet to be found.

8. In the coming days,the bears could make further advances and conquer new territory in the south more optimistically on dividend ex date and thereafter.

9. It is not looking good. Three three nine may not be sustainable. Trade cautiously.

Happy trading
6/6/23

1.What do you think about Radium?

2.On 27/5/23 three days before its listing I wrote and posted a lengthy perception about Radium in which I ended the posting with a negative outlook that reads as follows on line 12.
3. "Line 12. I think the upside potential is very limited on listing day. It would be a blessing if it does not fall below IPO price and end up with a red histogram on the candlesticks chart."
Well, indeed Radium experienced a phenomenal collapse of 24% on listing date and catastrophically closed at 38 sen.

4. If you have succeeded in your application and allotted IPO shares and suffered massive paper loss, great care must be exercised to avoid similar calamity in future by scrutinizing the prospectus specifically on how and the basis of arriving at the 50 sen IPO price. By now, you must be aware that selling at 17.3x PE multiply and 2.17x price to book value is astronomically far too high. Hence, the collapse on debut is not unexpected.

5. Next you must examine the capital restructuring and the capitalization of retained earnings and revaluation surplus and on the reasonableness as to how the enlarged capital for the founder was derived.

6.In Radium's case the founder shareholdings was inordinately and magically enlarged to 2.6b shares valued at RM1.3B

7. The founder did not undertake offer for sale in an attempt to instill confidence to the investing public and subscribers that it did not cash out during IPO. Looks noble and having all the fine personal qualities and high business moral principle.

8. But, the founder/director wasted no time and declared a 1 sen dividend that would go ex in July.This cash dividend will be paid out from the proceed of your 50 sen IPO price.

9 Now you know who gets all the money. For 26b shares the founder will receive RM26m cash. Otherwise he would have to sell 52m owner's share during IPO which is an incredible feat considering the lackluster response or 68.4 m shares at the current price of 38 sen.

10.Hi Guys you are dealing with a founder who is a shrewd and talented but self serving businessman who has a heart but does not feel for you and much less a soft spot for minority shareholders.
11. The IPO has been well plan and immaculately executed ,aggressively promoted through all media and sold with 100% success rate that also has its disadvantages and drawbacks.

12. Considering the collapse in share price, the founder has to face and deal with the 60m shares acquired by key managers and lower level position employees who traditionally acquired those share through interest bearing bank financing. The collapse in share price could even trigger margin call.

13. The much anticipated IPO and its rewards has become paper loss. This is a financial burden that dampen the working spirit at all level of management and it will certainly demoralize and diminish the employees sense of belongings in the company. From hereon until the share price recover, employees will wake up with fear and report work with anxiety. Being there and written with experience.

14. It the company believe human resource is an important factor of production and valuable capital,it must address this issue and be committed to pull them out of IPO suffocation.
15. It is a financial sacrifice the owner must endure to once again unite the employees and instill warm and sense of belongings.

Happy trading
5/6/23

To hhhiii123 who attack personally and Qweutyuiop who laugh uncontrollably.

1. In a few months time in a related party transaction Hap Seng would have sold its UK Manchester Credit Leasing business for RM837M. It will become a conglomerate without a credit leasing business. Upon completion of the disposal ,it would be permanently deprived of a long stream of revenue and profit and FUNDAMENTALLY SHIFT from a company that has a credit leasing operation to a company without a credit leasing business.
2. UK HSMCL has huge potential and great earning prosperity. Stop barking at the forum instead go and bite the hands that take away your banana. So, vote against it at the EGM and stop the FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT. Could you?

3. The price of CPO has collapsed spectacularly from RM8000 to close at RM3496 on Thursday 1st of June 2023. On the contrary, the cost of harvesting one MT of FFB has increased from Rm35 a ton to RM65 a ton and the transportation cost for 1 MT of FFB has increased from Rm30 to RM 50 a ton. The cost of fertilizer NPK 12-12-17-2 TE commonly used in palm oil plantation now cost RM4600 a ton compare to pre Covid period that only cost between RM1900 rm2100. It is undeniable and factually proven the cost structure of plantation operation has FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTED. Prove me wrong if you can with numbers.

4. In additionally,the government has forcefully imposed minimum wage of RM1500 a month that moves the labour cost curve upwards and outwards. The FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT in labour policy has immensely eroded margin and profit. With this on going development Hap Seng must recognize and address the cost impact of the rapidly changing operating plantation business environment.

5.Those who have eyes would clearly see there is a FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT in the cost structure of plantation business that immensely eroded Hap Seng huge earnings that represents the core and fundamental segment of HS business.

6. Fund managers saw the FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT and felt it is coming. This has led to the month end catastrophic portfolio adjustment. Some Guys have eyes but cannot see. Other have heart but cannot feel. It is unfortunate that your economic studies has been sadly neglected.

7. The country's CPO production and inventory stocks has swell form 1.1m ton to 2.93m ton and back to the acceptable level of 1.5m and now hover somewhere in between. The FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT in demand and supply and buyers behavior and the declining attractiveness has resulted in IJM Plantation, KUB, BOUSTEAD dispose off its palm oil plantations. The industry in which Hap Seng is operating is going through a major FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT and change to phrase out the weak players and moving into consolidation.

I could go on, but it is enough for today.
Happy trading
1/6/23

1.There was no short selling done yesterday. Price collapsed and crashed due to fund managers' bearish outlook and portfolio adjustment.
2. It was a great service to the 10.5m shares total short position. These guys a laughing to the bank by doing nothing or like what they would say, without lifting a finger.

3. HS is facing some issues and challenges and a fundamental switch in its business arising from rapidly changing operating business environment..

4.It is a huge conglomerate with several segments of business.
Plantation sector is not well. CPO price fell from RM8000+ per ton last year to RM3700 per ton this year. The loss in plantation profit is so huge that it can never recover.
5. Fertilizer cost is very high and still going up.
6. Property development is slow and sluggish. Shortage of foreign workers is a problem.
7 And many more challenges still unknown.
8.Fund managers have a bearish view and monitor with a negative outlook.

9. HS has been downgraded. Share price has collapsed and it is hard to say where is the bottom.

10. Because there is a fundamental shift, therefore a V shape recovery in share price is not expected.
11. It is believe that in the coming days or weeks it will find its bottom, than consolidate and nobody know for how long until a new trend appears.

Happy trading
1/6/23

1. The share price of PTRB has moved out of consolidation. The counter remains bearish. Its share price has weaken and continued to fall.

2. How much can it drop and how hard can it fall?.
Technically, PTRB has just completed a Shoulder Head Shoulder SHS pattern and formation. The left shoulder is peak at 44 sen and the head is at 68 sen with the right shoulder at 52 sen. The neckline is at 45 sen.

3. The SHS pattern is interpreted as a bullish to bearish trend reversal and it also signal the end of an uptrend as in PTRB.
4. Notice that on 18th May share has fallen and broken through the neckline at 45sen. Price continue to tumble and slip further to close at 41 sen today on 29th May.

5. Where does it go from here?.
Basing on the candlesticks chart and the SHS formation, once the share price cut through the neckline it will remain in its course and continue with its fall. The quantum of fall is equal to the distance from the neckline to the head. That average up to about 20sen considering PTRB has a lower and higher head.

7 If the chart is observed and accepted as a guide, than the share price could eventually slide from 45 sen minus 20 sen and technically settle at 25 sen.

8. Is this possible in the coming months?
Share valuation is base on earning basis. That means only profit will drive up share price. Fundamentally, according to PTRB's filing with Bursa, its 1Q profit was 7.5m, 2Q 8.3M and 3Q 1.9m. We are not insider and we do not have a clue on its final quarter earnings. The easiest way is to annualize the profit base on the three quarters available earnings.
Hence,[ (7.5+ 8.3+1.9) / 3 ] x 4 is 23.6m

9 The issued share capital of PTRB is 535m and therefore the prospective year end earnings per share EPS is 23.6/535 = 4.4 sen.

Now, let's look at the share price and PE of several companies in the similar industry.
CAB 66 SEN pe 5.69X
TEO SENG 90 SEN PE 7.27X
LHI 57 SEN PE 9.59X
CCK 73 SEN PE 6.9X
LAY HONG 30 SEN PE7.97X

The average PE of these companies is 37.42 / 5 is 7.48x
If ptrb is valued at PE 7.48x of its EPS than, its year end value would be 33 sen.

10 Fundamentally it could be worth 33 sen and technically basing on SHS chart it could slip further to 25 sen.

11. This is just a guesstimate and it is hopeful that you have been enlightened and informed and benefited from an alternative view and perception of the counter.

12. It is not intended to dampen your investing spirit. My analysis could also turn to be horribly incorrect.
Happy trading
29/5/23

1. RADIUM has just announcement its 1st.Q result.
The company generated a revenue of RM25.2m and reported RM2.93m profit for the period ended Mar 2023.

2.It is quite interesting and somewhat incredible to note that by Wednesday this company a property developer with inordinately tiny revenue basing on its filings with Bursa will command a market capital of RM1.73B upon listing on 31st Mar.

3. The enlarged issued share capital is 3.46b shares and the IPO price is 50 sen. Market capital upon listing 1.73b
Happy trading
29/3/23

1.Investors had downgraded Hap Seng and its share price had retreated and hugely diminished in the last two months. Yesterday, it announced its 1st Q result and the company suffered a 67.5% profit reduction compare to last year corresponding quarter and a 46% lower in comparison with the preceding quarter.

2. The company recorded decline in revenue and profit in all segments of business operation in particular the contribution from HS plantation was hugely diminished arising from falling price of Crude Palm Oil

3.Going forward the company sentiment will be rattled by the continued falling CPO price and loss of revenue from the disposal of Manchester Credit Leasing,raising cost of fertilizer and higher cost of operations.

4. The fall in share price is a direct reflection of its reduction in revenue and diminishing profit performance.

5.On 27th May it hit an intra-day low of 401 and a high of 427 to closed at 4.12 down 12 sen post result announcement. The counter is still struggling hard to find its bottom.

6. It is difficulty to estimate how low the price can go. Hap Seng is a counter designated for Restricted Short Sale with total short position exceeding 9.8m shares. The short sellers are still active and hence, there is no sign of its bottoming.

7. Considering that the 52 weeks share price has fallen from 830 to 401 or a loss of Rm10.6b in market capital, the downside in my opinion is limited.

8. In the days to come, HS will find its bottom and prices will consolidate and stabilize until the next quarter.

9. It is heart warming and comforting to note that HS has also declared a 10 sen dividend that would go EX on 8th of June and payable on 22nd of June 2023.
This would in some way cushion the fall.

10. I think all the loyal investors had an excruciatingly painful experience and suffered enormous financial losses.

11. In anyway the company is still profitable. The business is sustainable. At 412 it is trading at 12x PE multiply in which many would believe it is a fair price.

All the best and happy trading.
28/5/23