The upside can be large if there is a surge of oil price due to middle east tension, or recovery in crack spread which is kind of hard to predict.
At present low crack spread environment, Petronm is selling at low PE multiple.

The worst crack spread happened in Jan'19, although the crack spread in Q2 & Q3 were still low but higher than Jan'19. In other words, the worst of crack spread should be over.
At current price level, I suppose the downside is limited.

Bought some Petronm this morning.

SAPNRG is slowly but surely turning from loss to gain. Can it turns profitable as soon as in Aug-Oct'19 quarter ? The answer would depends on its E&C segment. In last quarter, the earnings from this segment was impacted by its low profit margins as most of the projects are at procurement stage or at the beginning of S-curve, where margins are on the low side. If next quarter's margin can improve, then SAPNRG will turn to black in next quarter. Otherwise, we have to wait longer for the progress of its projects to travel along the S-curve. But as I said, SAPNRG will surely turn into black, its just a matter of time.

Its drilling segment's will almost certain to show narrowed loss QoQ as the utilisation of rigs has improved in Q3 if compared to last Q2FY20. That will help SAPNRG in its turnaround. For drilling segment itself to breakeven, the analysts opine that will need to wait till FY21 (starts in Feb'20).

Should u buy SAPNRG while knowing it is turning around ? I leave the answer to you. But one thing I know, SAPNRG is more worth to buy now compared to beginning of 2019 as it is closer to its turnaround date now then in early 2019.

SAPNRG can surely turn from loss to gain in upcoming quarters based on the current size of orderbook. The earliest to see profitable quarter would be in Aug-Oct'19 quarter.

In May-July'19 quarter, SAPNRG nearly breakeven if the E&C's profit margin was not lower QoQ. In other words, if E&C segment made in this quarter was as much as in preceding quarter, SAPNRG would have breakeven.
Anyway, E&C segment's revenue has been increasing and has potential to deliver higher profit QoQ in next quarter. The drilling segment has secured numerous contract and hope to see narrowed loss in next quarter.

In other words, SAPNRG just need another one or two quarters to turn from loss to gain. This is a sure thing, the more important question is how much EPS it can deliver subsequently once it turns profitable. That will determine its stock price.

Comfort's result is acceptable in this quarter. It increased YoY and decreased QoQ.
2H CY2019 should be a better half for glove manufacturers when supply and demand are more balanced. USD is strengthening and that will help to boost earnings.
The analysts give 17x - 18x PE multiple to Comfort. If uses Q1&Q2 FY20 EPS to annualise, the fair value with 17-18x multiple is 95sen - RM1 per share. There is 22-29% upside from current stock price @77.5sen.

I just read HTPadu's quarterly report to find out more info. My findings is it is one of the worst quarterly report I have came across..
The report is not informative, Bursa should reject such kind of quarterly report.

The above calculation has following flaws :
I) Author assumes 36000 parking bays in Penang will be occupied the whole 12 operating hours, which cannot be the case especially at out-of-town areas. In addition, the charge-able hour is not 12 hrs but less than that.
ii) Author didn't take into account the maintenance and operating costs incurred and merely take the 65% profit sharing and converted it into EPS.

The exaggeration like this would cause the person to lose his/her credibility.

This stock will likely be stagnant at low stock price until Brexit issue is settled with positive outcome.

The CEO buying does attract my attention to re-look at Jaks.
I suppose the worst is over for Jaks as its property dev and investment segment is improving, Evolve Mall's occupany rate has improved after securing an anchor tenant lately, and the power plant construction will recognise higher contribution per quarter from Q2FY19 to Q4 FY20 if compared to the recognition in past 3 years.
Jaks is sueing Star Media for RM650mil. If the lawsuit succeed, that will be a boost.

I suppose the above are the reasons for Mr Ang to keep buying from end Aug'19 to 20th Sept'19 ?
Jaks had reported good quarterly earnings in May and Aug19 but its stock price didn't really move...I wonder what is in the mind of mr.market. Jaks' outstanding number of shares keeps increasing due to fund raising exercise and this is a negatve factor.

Maybe I should look further into Jaks to find out if it worths to buy now.

A lot of people can forecast the improved earnings in this quarter and quarters to come. Thus, there is no surprise for this quarterly result. I suppose that explains why its stock price doesn't move much today.
EWInt needs more than improved earnings to move its stock price. The weight of Brexit and poor sentiment for property stock in Malaysia are just too heavy.

This stock registered even higher earnings in last Aug-Oct'18 quarter but stock price kept coming down since then.
Let's see if this quarter's improved earnings can drive the price upwards. This would depend on how market weight the negative factors, i.e. Brexit risk, poor property stock sentiment, vs positive factor, i.e. improved earnings.

Pantech's trading segment will improve in tandem with the increased activities in O&G companies in 2H2019.
For the manufacturing segment, the ban on carbon steel sales to US had been lifted since Jun'19 and the earnings from this segment will see a boost from Sept-Nov'19 quarter onwards.

If Mflour disposes its poultry integration segment and concentrate only on flour business, it would be a better company.

SCGM is a good case to show that we cannot wait for all dusts are settled then only we buy into a company. It is bcos good news and cheap stock price do not happen together. As an investor, we must be able to anticipate the coming improvement in a company and buy earlier than others before all dusts are settled. This is the way to make extraordinary return.

Sudden surge in stock price :)
I suppose its coming quarterly result should see improvement, and probably back to profitability. The last quarter was the worst as all the bad things happened together. The worst should be over for SCGM.

I expect to see gradual improvement but not a spike in earnings because SCGM needs time to fill up its additional new capacity and improve its utilisation rate. It has high chance to achieve that because I notice its sales revenue has been increasing in past quarters albeit earnings was poor due to higher costs incurred in new plant.

As said, dumb dumb hold and hold tight tight.
Do not sell. The potential upside is still huge.

Bought some today bcos it is selling cheap.
The last quarter's loss was actually not that much if the tax rate was not so high.
The 1H of the year is always seasonally weak quarter for Latitude. The coming 2H will perform better. In addition, USD has strengthened in 3QCY19, forex gain will boost the earnings.

At current price level, Latitude is selling at merely 0.49x P/BV for a net cash and low L/E company.

MI will be a beneficiary because they sell their test equipment to China's chip manufacturers.
Other Malaysian OSAT companies, eg. MPI, who has plant in China will also a beneficiary when Huawei transfer their order from US companies to local companies in China.

Posted by qqq3 > Sep 13, 2019 9:24 AM | Report Abuse

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/Inside-Huawei-s-secret-p... and if MI is one of the beneficiaries, this share will more than double................................................................

RM2.07 now.
The 1st target is RM2.50 per share by Nov'19. If the next quarter's earnings is again good, then next target will be RM3 per share.

If one realises the potential of MI, he would not sell and will hold on to wait for its future plan to bear fruits. It is a multi-bagger company.

In analyst briefing, the management guided that 2H2019 performance will be better. Its Suzhou plant's utilisation is almost full and there is plan for expanding. The reason is US ban on Huawei has driven China to source the electronic components locally and MPI's Suzhou plant is benefiting.

By 2020, MPI's stock price should recover to >RM10 per share in tandem with the improving earnings.

WoW, why suddenly up so much ? I haven't accumulate enough..
No news no announcement also can up so much in afternoon session, must be a big buyer swallowing its stocks..

Wow, upward momentum is great !
Dumb dumb hold and hold tight tight. At current price level, it is still very undervalued.
More people will realise Armada's value in times to come. When most people see it, the price will no longer cheap.

Kenanga analyst sees the sales of Perdana FPSO as a positive move, but since he still worry this worry that, he maintains the tp at 20sen per share :p
Many analysts are joker.

5G is the theme for 2H2019 and 2020.

The progressive recognition of gain from Perdana FPSO will boost the earnings for Armada in quarters to come.

Things are really getting better for Armada now :)
It is a turnaround company of 2019 !

Uzma's stock price was >RM1 before Dec 2018 and it crossed RM1 in Mar 2019. At 78sen per share now, it is still a distance away.

From the buying momentum and surge of stock price in these 2 days, I suppose the speculation saying some analysts downgraded Uzma after it posted good earnings result in Q219 because they wanted to press down its price to buy is probably true.

Dumb dumb hold. Looking forward to RM1 per share.

Wow, great momentum today.

China started to loosen the restriction in car purchase in their major cities to boost economic activities in order to mitigate the impact from trade war. This act should increase car sales in China and hence benefit KESM. But, the effect should only be seen in later part of 2019 or early 2020.

Huat liao !
EPS per quarter is >1sen for 2 quarters consecutively.
Annualised EPS is >4sen.
If I give merely 10x multiple to Armada (O&G company deserves more than 10x multiple actually), its fair value is >40sen.

Therefore, my advise to all is dump dump hold and do not even think of selling before Armada's stock price crosses 40sen per share.

I observe that many O&G companies do well in 2Q and reported good results, for examples, Dayang, Deleum, Carimin, Uzma and etc. I suppose O&G industry is recovering. Hope Armada does well too in 2Q.

In FY2019 (ends in Jun2019), FIHB's core PATAMI improved by >100% if compare to FY2018.
There is no significant one-off gain from FY19 improvement. In other words, the improvement is real.

FIHB's construction segment has no problem to replenish its orderbook because FIHB has a property development sister company owned by the major shareholder. It will continue to be awarded with contracts.

Besides, USD has been strengthening and that will benefit its manufacturing segment which supplies furniture to Starbuck overseas.

NTA = 94.4sen, PE=5x, earnings consistently improve but stock price is at 39sen per share now.
When can market does justice to FIHB's stock price ?

Another good quarterly result. It improves QoQ and YoY. FIHB has delivered 4 quarters of good result consistently, and it is selling at 5x PE multiple now.

When can market does justice to its stock price ?
Its earnings and stock price are so mismatched. Just hold, I believe market will realise how undervalued it is one day.

I think this is the 1st time I see analyst revised downwards the target price he set one month ago, after the company he covers posted good core net profit and without any new negative factor emerges.
One of the main reason is he "feel" earnings delivery risks may persist..Huh ?? analyst can just make call based on feeling ?

The quantum of his adjustment is also as high as 19.7% (from 76sen to 61sen). What is the logic ? Well, he did explain his reason but I still do not see any logic ?

This reminded me of one analyst report on Econpile in early 2019, the tp set was merely 20+sen per share and recommendation is SELL. Just look at Econpile's performance and stock price now, u will know the quality of our Malaysian analysts. I think many i3 forum members are more qualify then them.

If u read Kenanga analyst's report and his reasons of lowering the target price of Uzma from 76sen to 61sen after Uzma posting good earnings result this quarter, u may feel ridiculous.

In addition, the analyst claims core net profit for this quarter plunged YoY. This is very different from my calculation which showed this quarter's core earnings improved QoQ and YoY. I wonder what the analyst is doing ??

Added Uzma. It is still cheap at this price level. Do not forget it came down from RM1 level a few months ago.

Earnings recovered QoQ albeit still lower YoY.
In general, 2H2019 is good for semiconductor industry, hope MPI's performance will also improve in tandem.

No good quarterly result is expected, why panic ? If u want to see good earnings from Inari, wait for 2H 2019. The management said so several times liao, and said the same thing again in this Q's quarterly report.
Inari is one of the 5G related stock. 5G is the theme in near future.

Good quarterly result !
Last quarter's poor result created the opportunity to buy :)
The newly acquired SVP has full quarter contribution in this Q and this is one of the main reason for good earnings.

For a company with new plant/capacity, it is important to see if its sales revenue has been increasing. If yes, this means the additional capacity is gradually taken up, and soon or later, the earning performance will improve when utilisation rate is high enough to offset the higher depreciation and operating cost resulted from the new plant.
We can see the above is happening to Kawan as it achieved the record highest revenue since listing. This substantiates the new capacity expansion is serving its purpose.

The opposite example is TomyPak. After its new plant commenced operation, its sales revenue is even lower than before installing the new capacity. We should ask a question why then TomyPak wanted to do expansion then if it doesn't help to sell more products but the opposite.

Kawan's earnings is lower YoY but higher QoQ in Q2.
From the quarterly report, i can see several positive signs as follows :
i) The revenue achieved in this quarter is the record highest since listing.
ii) The gross profit margin has improved QoQ.
iii) Management is positive on the growing sales demand in domestic and export market, especially China.
iv) Kawan won the Product Innovation 2019 Award.

I can see Kawan's performance should get better in quarters to come. It just need time to generate higher sales revenue and achieve higher capacity utilisation in order to offset the higher depreciation and higher operating cost from new plant.
I am almost certain that next quarter's earnings will see further improvement QoQ.

Thanks BullRun_93, hope u make some money too from CMSB. Its stock price rebounded this morning. If u refer to announcements, the major shareholder has been buying CMSB stocks from end May19 till yesterday. This doesn't mean everything but it at least shows a positive sign that things may not be so bad as what market has thought for CMSB.
Having said that, take note that its associate, i.e. OM Materials, performance will be poor in quarters to come due to declining FeSi selling price.


Posted by BullRun_93 > Aug 26, 2019 11:04 PM | Report Abuse

@value88 I think you are absolutely right! :)


Posted by BullRun_93 > Aug 27, 2019 9:21 AM | Report Abuse

@value88 you're a pro investor i see value in you! Your timing is PERFECT! :D

Yeah, I also don't think a US-China physical war can happen. That is too much to lose for US. What US may do is to trigger a war between China and other countries, for example, Taiwan or India and he "help" other parties.

Trump is indeed doomed if he just keeps doing what he has been doing in US-China trade war. I can see his face looked so sad on TV throughout G7 meeting. As what Albert Einstein had said: if one keeps doing the same thing and expect different outcome, he/she must be insane.

Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 26, 2019 1:41 PM | Report Abuse

No worry there is no war. US has no more money to fight a war with Menglembu

Let alone china

Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 26, 2019 2:13 PM | Report Abuse

I think trump doomed already

He can't sleep well now

If u ask me, I would think Apr-Jun19 quarterly earning should be on par with preceding quarter, and that would be good enough. FIHB is selling at low PE and has also been giving out dividend. Just hold and wait for good things to happen on low PE multiple stock. Trade war has depressed its market valuation.

On bad day, MI can rise ~6% today. This is after the 11% rise yesterday.
MI will sustain its momentum, and RM2 is a sure thing. RM2.50 is also likely before end Nov'19. If next quarter's earnings is again good (I suppose so), RM3 is not a dream.

LayHong's earnings doesn't drop QoQ as much as TeoSeng and Mflour. It is because LayHong does not depends on average price for table eggs as much as TeoSeng and average price for broiler as much as MFlour.
This quarter's earnings is considered slightly better than what market has anticipated after looking at poor result from TeoSeng and MFlour.
LayHong's JV NH plant is ramping up production. Hopefully it can lift up the earnings in quarters to come.

Oversold today. Bought some. Hope the drop today is not due to insiders know coming Q2 earnings is poor.
I personally think that Q2 earnings will see improvement QoQ albeit lower YoY. This is due to Q1 is seasonally weakest quarter.