Chinwel is definitely a good company. It is one of the stocks that u won't lose out if u hold it through the bad year 2018.
However, there are so many good small cap stocks selling cheap now, and that makes Chinwel becomes not so attractive. Besides, RM is strengthening and that will not be good for Chinwel in 2019.

In short, Chinwel is good but there are many other small-cap stocks that can give better returns in year 2019. So, why Chinwel ?

I have been shouting "undervalued" for AZRB for months.
It's last few quarters' reported EPS was very much impacted by forex loss in its Indonesian palm oil plantation segment. However, this issue will not happen since Oct'18 as Indonesian Rupiah has strengthened.

I am certain that AZRB is going to register much higher EPS for Oct-Dec'18. It will be much higher QoQ and YoY. Mark my words.

This new contract will have higher profit margin compared to infrastructure contract.

I think it is not a time to buy E&O now albeit its stock price plunged a lot today.
This is because normally a company's stock price will remain depressed from the right issue announcement day till the completion of right issue (estimate to complete by 3Q2019)
In addition, the STP2 new launches may only happen in 2Q2019, and most of other E&O new launches in Klang Valley/JB will only happen in 2H2019.
Therefore, I think 3Q2019 is a better timing to consider buying E&O when the right issue has completed and most of the new launches has kicked off and we are about to see the increase in its unbilled sales.

E&O's STP2 is a valuable asset. Having said that, the sales of coming launches in STP2 may not be good due to bad property market sentiment now, plus the selling price is foresen to be very high..

I like the 2x2 matrix shown in article above, which emphasizes that being right together with consensus doesn't give superior returns. It is only being right and non-consensus can give outsized returns.

And, conventional wisdom is usually right, thus don't be contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian.

Huawei is a pride of Chinese.

Based on the above findings, i think i will leave Success for now and put it in KIV list.

The main concern for Success is its Process Engineering segment which suffered losses in FY18, and management anticipates still challenging prospect for this segment in FY2019.
In addition, Success exports >50% of its product to overseas, and therefore, favours weak RM but RM is strengthening against USD now.

I also look for undervalued company to buy, thus I looked into Success' latest quarterly and annual report to find out more after reading Icon's article above.
My findings are :
- The core EPS in FY2018 (ended Jun'18) was 5.3sen. At 53.5sen per share now, Success is selling at PE = 10.1x which is not cheap nor high.
- However, if i use this Q1FY19's reported EPS of 2.37sen to annualise, i get 9.48sen/year. This translates to PE = 5.6x which is attractive.
- But, i noticed that Success's quarterly earnings is inconsistent, this means we may see much lower or higher EPS in subsequent Qs...As such, predicting next Qs' EPS using Q1FY19's reported EPS is not reliable.

I said again, AZRB's coming EPS is to show much improvement. The last few quarters were very much impacted by weakening of Indonesian Rupiah vs USD. The forex loss has been very large, but this situation was ended since Oct-Dec'18 quarter.
Without the negative impact from huge forex loss, AZRB's normalised (and much higher) earnings will boost its stock price.

The concern is USD is weakening, and expect to weaken further as US Feb will halt the interest rate hike in 1H2019.
The last 2 fantastic quarters were partly boosted by forex gain. We will see EPS QoQ decreased in subsequent quarters due to weakening of USD.
FLBhd is a good stock but it is not considered cheap if compared against other stocks in Bursa now.

Major shareholders of Carimin are selling, just look at the announcement. If Carimin worths the current price, why the major shareholders kept selling ? Pls think.
The KYY may also be selling in last few days if he is not silly.
The music may stop anytime from now.
Anyone who bought Carimin in last few days or to buy in coming days are feeding themselves to the sharks.

Jon Choivo has much clearer and rational thought than KYY, the old man. I hope the old can learn from the young. Otherwise, how many RM64mil he can afford to lose ?


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Posted by Choivo Capital > Feb 1, 2019 04:06 PM | Report Abuse


Mr Koon, your senseless critics told you to sell JAKS at RM1.84. You told people to buy.

The same senseless critics are now saying at RM0.4-RM0.5 JAKS not horrible, maybe can buy. You on the other hand asking to sell.

Now we have the same story with CARIMIN.

Uncle, RM64 million (More than RM70 million if i add in all your other holdings) is a lot of tuition money to pay. And im not sure you learnt enough for RM64 million.

You like to help others and poor students. I hope you don't pay this kind of tuition money again.


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As you know, I have posted my buy recommendation. My senseless critics always said to sell when I call to buy. Now they are leaking their wounds. Those who believed me are laughing to the bank.
Koon Yew Yin

Post removed.Why?

I will consider to pick up some if its stock price falls further. LCTitan is good but there are many more good stocks are selling at depressed price level now..

LCTitan recorded bad results because :
I) In Oct-Dec'18 period, crude oil price plunged and therefore the product selling price also fell in tandem.
ii) However, the raw material cost, i.e. feedstock price, in Oct-Dec'18 period remained high as the feedstock was purchased before Oct'18 when the crude oil was still high.

The combination of the above 2 factors, i.e. high raw material cost and low product selling price, in Q4FY18 resulted gross profit margin became extremely low.

Post removed.Why?

Having said that, PetronM is indeed selling at low valuation and attractive at current price level.

I am thinking to buy after PetronM reports its Oct-Dec'18 quarterly result by end Feb'19. I probably can get cheaper price then.

I am also tempted to buy PetronM..rather than Hengyuan. What makes me hesitate is PetronM's coming quarterly earnings may be poor due to poor crack spread in Oct-Dec'18 period and potential stock holding loss as oil price declined quite sharply during Oct-Dec'18 period.

Bought some last week.
FIHB is a good buy at this price as its great EPS reported in last quarter will be able to sustain.

What concern me is WCT's property development segment. Its earnings is deteriorating and see no light for improvement.

Muda will report fantastic earnings result for its Oct-Dec'18 quarter. The waster paper cost remains low and finished goods product price is still high. In addition, Oct-Dec is seasonally strong quarter for Muda's trading segment.
Mark my words.

Ekovest's fair value is ~80sen per share. It is 56sen now, and its stock price has been consolidating in past few days. It will move higher up when the consolidation is completed.

MFlour's stock pice is consolidating. It will surge to higher level after the consolidation. Just hold on.

AZRB will certainly report fantastic earnings result and huge improvement QoQ and YoY by end Feb'19. By that time, it will be too late to buy. Mark my words.

Once the Shariah-compliant funds finish disposing DKSH's stocks. Its stock price will recover to RM3, and subsequently to RM4 if market sentiment remains good.

SAPNRG fulfilled 7 out of 7 criteria listed down by Cold Eyes for O&G stocks. Armada fulfilled 6 out of the 7 criteria.

If there is no fear, how can we make money in stock market ?
We capitalise on fear and we do not join the party of greedy people.

Go and read Cold Eyes' latest articles, he encourage to buy into O&G stocks. He quoted SAPNRG and Armada. I believe these two O&G stocks are in his current portfolio.

The upside is still huge if and when the good news unfold in coming months.

Guys, Armada has been oversold in past few months. It is a top#5 FPSO player in the world, it has valuable assets, but is selling at such a depressed price.
I list down at below the 5 potential good news which can recover market's confidence in Armada and further boost up its stock price in coming months :

i) The conclusion of its short-term loan re-structuring. This is the biggest catalyst and likely to happen in 1Q19.
ii) Secure a new subseas contract at Caspian Sea. Armada is bidding for the contracts.
iii) Positive outcome of the Australian court hearing for Armada Claire by May 2019F. Armada has very high chance to win the court case and be hugely compensated.
iv) FPSO Claire can be redeployed if Armada wins the contract from Australian Karoon Gas.
v) If FPSO Kraken's technical impediments can be resolved in future, Armada can write back portion of the US119mil impairments.

The next O&G stock to surge will be SAPNRG.

Wow, why up so much and so fast ?
Is it bcos market knows Cold Eyes bought into Armada ?
Or the good news of Armada manages to re-structure its short term loan to long term loan is on the way ?

AWC move liao...finally. Its stock price dropped suddenly last week was to shake-off weak holders (unbelievers).
The fair value is higher, so just hold on to AWC.

Cold eyes keep emphasing on buying O&G stocks in his recent articles.
From the hints he gave, I believe he owns SAPNRG and Armada.

My problem to decide if to invest into Ewint or not is I am not able to predict what will be its subsequent quarters' EPS, and therefore, I can't calculate its projected PE....
In other words, I am not able to find out if the price now is cheap or expensive relative to its value and earning power.
Ewint is selling at lower price than its listing price, but that fact itself is not sufficient to justify a buy.

Anyone has any input for my concern and doubt above ?

Cold eyes mentioned about SAPNRG before in his previous article. In this latest article, he also talked about Armada.
Hmm...I think he has invested into both SAPNRG and Armada.

Wow, up so fast and so much. Good.
I expect its stock price to recover but didn't expect so soon.
It worths >70sen per share, so just hold on.

Oct-Dec'18 earnings will be good and almost certain to be higher QoQ and YoY. This is because waste paper cost remains low, finished product selling price remains high, and Q4 is seasonally strongest quarter for Muda.
What Paperplane claimed above is true, RM3 is very possible after the Q4 earnings result.

This article from Cold Eye hinted that he bought into SAPNRG.

Cold eye came out the above article at this timing, he is actually asking us to take opportunity to buy stock now !

If exclude the forex loss, the past several quarters' EPS is >2sen per quarter. Market has overlooked its earnings power because it was blurred by huge forex loss.
It is selling at 35sen per share now. The PE multiple is <5x for a reputable construction and concessionaire.
No wonder the major shareholder has been buying.

This stock is severely undervalued.
It has suffered forex loss in past 5 quarters due to Indonesian Rupiah depreciated against USD. However, the trend has reversed in Q4CY18. This means AZRB will see forex gain in coming Q4FY18 earnings.

I read his articles. The articles contain hard data and therefore are informative. But, the target price given is always on the high side to attract people to buy. In addition, the "positive" points given always sound like will last forever.

Icon8888, that person I believe is DavidTsLim.

Good news coming..awaiting for announcement.

If market sentiment turns bullish, RM4 is possible.

I aim for RM3 per share, that means 31% upside.