Mike Kim, I also invested in Armada and agreed with your points on Armada all this time. BUT, it seems to me that Armada is kind of "over-weight" in your portfolio and I am a bit worry for you...:)
Have you looked into Dayang (O&G company too) before ? I think it is to turnaround in 2018, and its stock price is at attractive level now after past few days drop. Just for sharing.

Having said that, I also think Armada is very attractive at current level and worth to add. Its just we also need to be careful on "black swan" event and not to put all (or too much) eggs in one basket.

Year 2018 is so far a bad year for stock investment.
If there is one industry/theme can standout in 2018, that could be O&G theme. Let's see if we can conclude so when come to end 2018.

In last quarterly report, Dayang management said "We firmly believe that 2018 will be a real turnaround year for the group".
I hardly see listed companies' management dare to use the words like "firmly" and "real", it showed how confident the management believe Dayang will be profitable in next 2 quarters in FY2018.
It is not just the words of the management, the P&L report and crude oil price movement also can tell its future prospect.
I have accumulated and will hold Dayang to see through its next 2 quarters' earnings result.

I agreed with KC that it is naïve to believe Chinese bank will give guarantee for the profit of the power plant. It is like saying when Malaysian bank gives out housing loan to you, the bank guarantee our property investment will profit us. No, the bank just make sure u can pay them back before they approve your housing loan.

Bad quarterly earning anyway, I suppose its stock price will continue to plunge and stay depressed in months to come.

I look at its previous quarterly reports, all quarters suffered from allowance for diminution of inventories and the amount can be very big and eroded the earnings. I wonder how that could have happened ? Anyone who knows, pls share.
If without that sort of "allowance" in every quarter, the earnings of Astino is actually quite good. But since it happens every quarter, it is no longer considered an "one-off event" and must be looked into seriously.

The better way to do valuation for Ekovest is not using PE but DCF method due to the reasons mentioned above. If use PE method, Ekovest is surely "overvalued" as last 2 quarters showed "poor net profit". DCF method can take into account the future earnings potential for Duke2 and one will see Ekovest is actually undervalued now.

Having said so, the same situation will continue in quarters to come before Duke2's revenue and earnings can surpass higher interest expense and depreciation charges. Patient is needed to hold Ekovest for longer term..

In short, Ekovest's performance is actually not deteriorating, it looks like so in Q4FY18 quarterly report due to the accounting standards for concession business has made the P&L looks bad..

The revenue from concession segment was not much increased as at Q4FY18 as it will take times for traffic to improve in Duke 2 Highway.This is normal in early days when concession commence operation, but with typical growth, there will be a breakeven timeframe between higher interest expense and toll revenue. Higher profit will kick in after the breakeven point.

If one takes a look at Ekovest's Q4FY18 P&L, its revenue and gross profit were actually not deteriorating, however, the net profit was much lower due to high finance cost and depreciation charges upon the completion of Duke.

I suppose the catalyst for its stock price would be the approval of Penang Transport Master Plan.

At current RM3.36 stock price and core EPS of 32.74sen in FY18, Gamuda is selling at 10.3x PE multiple, which is cheap for a construction leader.

From Q4FY18 quarterly report, we can see the followings in FY2018 :
I) Construction segment achieved record-high revenue.
ii) Property segment achieved record property sales.
iii) Core net profit (exclude one-off gain/loss) is at new high.

Management also guided that water concession business will see lower earnings in FY19, but overall business performance in coming FY19 is anticipated to improve due to higher property sales especially in Vietnam, and MRT2 construction progress continues to pick up pace.

The loss is expected. The recently secured contract is at early stage of engineering and procurement and therefore cannot see the contribution in this quarter yet.
The reason of owning SAPNRG is banking on the recovery of O&G industry. We should see it turns green in year 2019. However, its earning in 2019 must be big enough to compensate for the dilution in number of shares after right issue.

Anyway, the next 2 quarters are seasonal stronger quarters for PoHuat and strengthening of USD will boost profit. Thus, it is okay to hold and wait.

If u look at PoHuat's quarterly reports, Malaysian operation is doing fine but Vietnam operation's performance is deteriorating, mainly due to stiff competition from new China furniture manufacturing plant there, and higher operating cost such as increasing labour cost in Vietnam.

The trade war may benefit furniture manufacturers in Vietnam as a whole, but I wonder how much it can help PoHuat's deteriorating Vietnam operation..

Guys, do not sell your AWC stock below RM1 per share based on the facts above.

WoW ! So many good things happen together for AWC :
I) Approval obtained for the acquisition of Trackwork
ii) Analysts raised target price and target PER for AWC
iii) Proposed free warrants !

I suppose AWC's stock price will cross RM1 per share very soon. The issued price to Trackwork for the acquisition is already RM1 per share, this means Trackwork owner values AWC at >RM1 even when AWC was selling at 70+sen per share.

In-depth and true. Good sharing. Thanks.

When crude oil price hit rock bottom in end 2016, and before Armada Olembendo and Armada Kraken received final acceptance, Armada was selling at 50+sen per share in end 2016. The crude oil price is much higher now and showing upwards trend, in addition, Armada Olembendo and Kraken have received the final acceptance.

More importantly, the O&G business and earnings prospect have improved a lot now if compared against the situation in end 2016, and Armada is selling at the same level as the bottom price in end 2016.

The comparison above justifies to accumulate Armada at this price. I don't foresee any other bad news to press down its stock price further. If any good news, eg. secure Zabazaba contracts, surfaces, it would spur the stock price back to >70sen per share. The rest will depend on its earnings in quarters to come.

In Press Release, the management gave positive outlook on KESM's growth prospect.
The temporary delay in KESM's growth is due to industry-wide wafer supply issue, and KESM's customers also having problem with the production of their new devices and hence the delay to submit for burn-in and test process.

Add more Armada. I believe in Armada and Mike Kim :)

When SAPNRG stock price fell close to 30sen right issue price, I was wondering what would the management do if it falls below 30sen as no one will subscribe to right issue then.
I know now that the management has confident that its stock price will not be so because they have the card of E&P segment stake sales in hand even before they announced the right issue proposal.
For those who acquired SAPNRG's stock below 40sen per share during the panic are laughing to bank now.

LayHong is in the end cycle of Capex, so if they didn't need cash call in the beginning or mid cycle of Capex, they would not need to do so now.
In addition, Yap family holds quite a big portion of LayHong. If right issue is proposed, they will also need to fork out a big sum of money. Thus, my guess is no cash call for LayHong lar.

Melewar's engineering segment will no longer incur loss in coming Qs as projects have completed.
From then onwards, it will solely depend on Mycron's earnings from steel tube and CRC businesses.
Melewar is indeed a lousy company having lousy management, but at 14sen per share now, it's stock price should have limited downside now. Any positives will spur the stock price upwards.
If exclude the one-off gain/loss, Melewar was actually in black in its Q4.

LayHong has good potential but I think one must ready to hold till next year 2019 to see its fruits.
The new JV food processing plant will commence in Sept 2018 and it will take some times to setup and fine tune the machinery and processes. I suppose it will take months before the production can run smoothly and production output can contribute significantly to earnings.

Thanks Des07.

Quoted : "An adventurous investment, is where you are not sure of the value of what you’re buying, and thus do not know whether the price you paid is worth the money or not. However, you have a good feeling about the long term prospects of the company. And at that point in time, you might feel good enough about it to buy a certain amount of it."

If you think when sifus (not me ya) advised you to be more "adventurous" in stock investment, that means asking you to invest in stocks that "you are not sure of the value of what you're buying", you have total mis-conception.
That's all I want to add. If u can't understand, u won't understand.

Guys, LionInd's earnings in this quarter is saved by RM16.7mil tax credit.
If without this high tax credit, its core EPS is merely 1.68sen compared against 4.17sen reported EPS.

LionInd's core earnings dropped more than AnnJoo or SSteel mainly due to Parkson suffered high loss in Apr-Jun18 quarter.

Chicken King, I have one question :
In Jan-Mar quarter, LayHong's "other income" was RM13.2mil and that boosted its Q4FY18's earnings. Do you know what that other income is and why so high ? Thanks in advance for your sharing.

Chicken King, I think feed cost is another main reason affecting LayHong's earning in Apr-Jun'18 quarter. The feed cost will continue to impact LayHong in next 2 quarters and hope the higher eggs price can mitigate the negative impact. All in all, I think LayHong's next quarter earnings should improve QoQ but lower YoY.

Chicken King's article showed he/she has in depth knowledge on this industry. Thanks for sharing.

PBT is RM2.9mil (on par with last quarter) and tax is as high as RM1.3mil (43% tax rate). Resulting, net profit is lower QoQ.

If I take Q1 & Q2 core EPS to annualise, and calculate he PE, at 38.5sen current stock price, Lsteel is selling at PE = 5.4x only. I suppose its low PE is due to Lsteel does not give dividend all these years.

Jon, u know how KYY behaves in the stock market and how he pump and dump, u describe that porton well. I give u a like.
But, I don't think u know him personally, and u never met him and talk to him face-to-face, so I doubt the portion u describe his personal life is dependable.

Apr-Jun'18 quarter earnings was impacted by huge forex loss in plantation segment as Indonesia Rupiah weaken by ~3.8% against USD. If exclude the forex loss, its core EPS is 2.3sen (reported EPS is merely 1sen).

In preceding quarter, there was also forex loss but not as much as in this quarter.
If I use core EPS (without forex loss) in Q1 & Q2 FY18 to annualise, and based on 44.5sen current stock price, it is selling at merely 4.8x PE multiple which is very cheap.

Having said so, pls take note that Indonesia Rupiah continues to weaken against USD from July till now, so we are likely to see forex loss again in Q3 earnings...I suppose this is what dragging AZRB, apart from less optimistic construction industry outlook.

KYY said he will quit i3...again. He is like a lady keep shouting "i want to leave u, i want to leave u,...." but keep coming back by himself.

Hello KYY, hear me out, if you want to leave i3 forum and stop talking about stock investment, leave and don't come back. Show us your back bone that your words are real for once.

Jon reminds me of Ricky Yeo, I suppose they are from the same sifu.

CharlesT said it well. If Jon can be more adventurous and not that conservative and rigid in stock investment, he would do very well with his knowledge. I can also benefit by following his picks.
But with what he is now, I would not be interested in his picks.

See Koon's reply. As expected, Koon would not change his attitude one lar, a letter or a thousand letter also no use.

The usefulness of SSLee's open letter is to let i3 members including newbies to know about Koon. The letter does serve its purpose. Good efforts, SSLee. Thanks for taking the efforts and time to compile.

PBT is RM1.45mil but tax rate is as high as RM10.1mil (696% tax rate).

Sherlock,
If you really think like what you have written above about Koon, u will fall into his trap and lose big money one day.
Pls don't shoot me, I just try to alert u.

I clicked like too :)

The oldman Koon won't change his attitude wan lar. The bad already in his bone, and I don't think an open letter can kick the devil out of him.

Anyway, good efforts and courage from SSLee.

30/08/2018 21:14

gohkimhock i respect his philanthropy work but not his way of promoting a counter.

30/08/2018 21:06

Sad to say his philanthropy work is also a way for him to boost and gain good fame. A real philanthropy will give quietly without taking the glory to himself because he knows God sees and pleases.

The experienced i3 members can actually make use of old Koon to ride on him and make money, just like KC Chong did on LionInd.

I was trapped in LionInd even before old Koon started buying, thanks to him that LionInd could rise back up. I didn't that smart to sell at RM1.30 but at least can sell close to my breakeven price, that's good enough for me.

For newbies, I hope the open letter above is another guide to help them to see the real Koon and his objective behind in all his articles.
When all newbies and veteran i3 members learned Koon's behaviour, he will lose his venom.

Based on the above result, if one put in FD and not invest in stock market this year, he/she would have ranked in top 5 position. Haha.

I suppose market will chase its stock price higher due to "fantastic" reported EPS.

Reported EPS = 6.22sen
Core EPS (without one-off gain/loss) = 1.53sen.
The difference was mainly due to RM93.8mil negative goodwill gain in this quarter.

If I annualise 1.53sen (assuming Hibiscus will make this much in subsequent quarters), I get 6.12sen per year.
At RM1.10 per share current price, Hibiscus is selling at PE = 18x.
I suppose Hibiscus is selling at fair value, not really cheap nor expensive.

The good point is management hinted in "prospect" column that the financial performance in FY2018 will be better than last year due to SKIN project.
I think who buy PresBhd is mainly due to the SKIN project. In last 2 months, PresBhd's stock price dropped drastically was also due to market worried about the termination of SKIN project by new government....but that didn't happen.

The earnings in this quarter was impacted by 62% high tax rate. Otherwise, the profit after tax won't be so bad.
What i don't understand is why the minority interest %in this quarter can be as high as 81% vs 28%
in preceding quarter ? Anyone knows can enlighten me ?
The high MI % in this quarter also negatively impacted the PATAMI.