@CloeTai PS, Power Seraya

Still need to wait for the new regulation detail to come out.
We will see this impact during 1QFY24.

As for me, it just delayed a bit the pace reaching 20 EPS yearly.

The overall profitability still intact.

相信成熟的新加坡政府应该只会对最后的超级暴利率来下手。

果然是这样。
当供电非常紧的时候，最后的2%电费是超级超级高昂。

新加坡政府确实是需要对这样的情况作出策略性的调整。这机制就好像亚航马航的最后2%的机票一样，贵得超级离谱。

看来，来季将会是PS最后一次呈现暴利的季报了。

Singapore to End 3,000% Power Price Spikes That Sank Companies
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/671712?utm_source=Newswav&utm_medium=Website

On the domestic market, foreign investors were net sellers for every day of the past week, except for Monday when there was net buying seen in counters such as Maybank, RHB and YTL Corp.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/06/19/foreign-outflow-persists-on-bursa-malaysia-with-rm1894mil-net-equities-sold

YTLP已经忙于DC的投资，而YTL好像比较有子弹。

YTL(3QFY23)
Cash and cash equivalent 13.47b
TOTAL ASSETS 76.63b
TOTAL LIABILITIES 58.80b

YTLP(3QFY23)
Cash and cash equivalent 8.88b
TOTAL ASSETS 55.53b
TOTAL LIABILITIES 41.05b

在想，为何YTL来标这些这些种植地？
在想，若要用来建太阳能发电厂，为何不是让YTLP来标？像kulai的那一片一样？
是不是要把一部分用来注入YTL Land，然后再让适合用来发电的，卖给YTLP？
从报章的内容来看，似乎YTL得标率蛮高。
今年似乎是YTL的爆发年。

Same owner listed as 3rd shareholder among YTL 30 largest shareholder.
HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd– Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) Limited
506,561,781 (4.62%)
YTL Annual report 2022, pg 74.

yes, found in the annual report of ytl power.

8th among 30 largest shareholders

HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd
– Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) Limited
253,278,119 （3.13%）
Annual report 2022, pg 104

UBS, listed as 3rd shareholder among those 30 largest shareholder.
HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd– Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) Limited
506,561,781 (4.62%)
Annual report 2022, pg 74.

刚刚看了马币的汇率，今天马币又再贬。
新币兑马币 3.45
英镑兑马币 5.86
美金兑马币 4.63 （约旦）

若继续这样贬下去，马币真是没眼看咯。

12/6/2023，switching half of my YTLP shares to YTL.
sold RM1.30, buy mother share 0.95.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/byd-leads-ev-sales-race-in-2023-long-time-leader-tesla-falls-to-second-place-followed-by-bmw

这报道说明了，新加坡的电子车占市场的百分比不断攀升，虽然目前还是只占非常小的比例。

不过，却继续消耗更多更多的绿色电力。

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/lower-electricity-bills-expected-this-year-as-global-energy-prices-stabilise-geneco-ceo

新加坡Geneco的CEO一些的访谈。
此报道可以帮忙我们了解新加坡走向绿色能源的大方向。
Geneco也有售卖绿色电源给住家用户，透过附加选项的方式。

sapu a bit at 95 cents.
Hopefully mother run faster than son.

Power project in Jordan reaches full operating status
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202305/31/WS6477022ba3107584c3ac32da.html

根据报道，第二单位的发电组织推算是在1/6/23，星期五，开始了商业模式。
看来，盈利贡献有限，只占2QCY2023的一个月，而且是单一单位罢了。
不过，这已经是很好的结果了。
期待另一个单位的启动日。

Haha, maybe our bro. D328 tak tahan El Nino.

Be prepared, the El Nino has arrived, since 9/6/2023.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2587985/its-official-el-nino-has-arrived

Due to the upswing in prospects, the research house has an “outperform” call on YTL Power with a target price (TP) of RM1.48 per share.

HLIB Research has a “buy” call on the stock with an unchanged TP of RM2.05 a share but taking into consideration a six sen dividend for FY23 and eight sen for FY24-25 respectively.

“We believe the current valuation is undemanding, while earnings and dividend may surprise on the upside,” HLIB Research added.

预测，股息大概是6仙。不过有机会派更高的息。

有没有可能HLB给TP是RM2.05，是基于预测4QFY23的EPS是9仙呢？

9仙，等于720M的净利。有没有可能呢？

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/06/07/ytl-power-to-gain-from-higher-income

4QFY23的成绩有可能强过3QFY23。这不是不得了吗？
这预测，是根据什么呢？

The research house said the ongoing heatwave and renewal of retail contracts would help the unit post a stronger performance in the 4Q23.
这有理由，新加坡4-6月的气温不是高过1-3月吗？马币兑换率4-6月，马币不是更弱了吗？

Earnings support will also come from its UK based water supply and sewage utility, Wessex Water Services Ltd, which has been allowed to raise water tariff by 9% since April, according to the research house. The utility posted a pre-tax loss of RM47.2mil in the recent quarter but the 9% increase in tariff rate should enable it to offset raising operational costs and enable a turnaround in its financial performance in the quarters ahead, said Kenanga Research.
英国有机会有亏转盈

Kenanga Research said the group’s 45%-owned 554-megawatt oil shale-fired Attarah power plant in Jordan has achieved full commercial operation date recently and would receive payment from its off-taker, National Electric Power Co soon.
约旦极有可能提供第一次盈利。

若连续几季都提供惊喜的税后盈利，这将大大缓和为数据中心或数码银行拨款的压力，特别是数据中心借贷的压力。

Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB Research) is still optimistic about YTL Power International Bhd's prospects, which are supported by profit sustainability over the next three years.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2023/06/917020/hlib-remains-optimistic-about-ytl-powers-earnings-potential

我在想，新加坡的电价的价格，有没有可能就像机票一样。
我们都知道，无论亚航或马航，一旦机位爆满，最后2%机位的价格是非常惊吓的。
同样的，新加坡的电供吃紧，甚至是特别紧的时候，最后2%的吃紧电供的价格，会不会也是同样非常惊吓的呢？
我觉得可能性是有的。

再次强调：新加坡的盈利，全看电供吃不吃紧。我个人推测，电供吃紧是确保高盈利的首要要素，比政府的合约更重要，也比天然气价格更重要。所以，只要新加坡的电供持续吃紧，PS的盈利就会持续保持高位。

问题是：来季盈利爆炸的可能性有多高呢？
我个人是预算会有再一次的盈利爆炸，所以我1.33时，已经加仓一次。
我的预算基础如下：
1. 新加坡的营业额肯定会维持同样水平或更高，因为炎热的气候，加上新加坡的经济健康。更炎热的气候，会让营业额再维持至少一个季度的可能性，是非常高的。
2．净利率有机会维持在相同水平，若和3QFY23对比。这是因为政府和发电商有2年的合约。我个人推测，这合约不会只一份。虽然不知道什么时候到期，预计还会再维持至少一两个季度。加上电供吃紧，是会推高净利率。相反地，供过于求的时候，净利率就会严重下跌（前几年的悲惨就是出于供过于求，这也证实了，电供吃紧是确保高盈利的首要要素，比政府的合约更重要，也比天然气价格更重要。这也说明了为何3QFY23会盈利爆炸，不就是出于电供吃紧吗？）。目前电供已经是吃紧的了，加上温度是持续攀高。这些都可以支撑高的净利率。
3. 上一季，英国是亏损。这一季，4QFY23是开始起价的季度，英国业务是可以由亏转盈的。
4. 约旦的启动费会耗一些资金，不过数额是无从可知。不过，也有可能会提供一些盈利也说不定。
5. YES的亏损会进一步扩大，不过YES的亏损已经是常态，预料之中。
6. 数据中心会继续烧钱，上一季也已有反映。

总结：带来盈利的业务，会继续提供同样的盈利的可能性是有的。亏损的业务，在上一季也已经是亏损的了。所以，维持6 sen一季的可能性，是有的。

若PE是10,，目前的股价已经是合理的水平，再升的几率不高，除非4QFY23又来一次惊喜。

为什么几率不高呢？FY23的三个季度，EPS已经来到11.01 sen （2.14+2.45+6.41）。若第四季的EPS正常回去，大概单季2.3-2.4 sen的水平，全年EPS会到13.5 sen。所以目前股价是正常的了。

不过，假如4QFY23再来一次的盈利爆炸，单季EPS来到6 sen或以上，让全年EPS冲到17 sen的时候，股价就会升到RM1.70，若PE是10。

Forcast EPS FY2023 14.6 sens
DY 5%, 7 sens dividend.

https://www.sinchew.com.my/20230530/%e7%8b%ae%e5%9f%8e%e6%b0%94%e8%b1%a1%e7%bd%b2%ef%bc%9a6%e6%9c%88%e8%87%b310%e6%9c%88%e5%a4%a9%e6%b0%94%e6%96%99%e6%9b%b4%e7%83%ad-%e5%a2%9e%e5%8a%a0%e8%b7%a8%e5%a2%83%e7%83%9f%e9%9c%be%e9%a3%8e/

更炎热的天气，有70%的几率将在第三季袭击新加坡。这将进一步推高新加坡的用电量。
YTLP的未来一年的盈利，还是可期。

@WWCD1688 STILL CAN BUY?

My answer is: Why not?
My latest top up price is Rm1.33, adding 10% shares to the stack.
And my entry price is Rm1.51.
Im still live in the penthouse, if exclude the dividend received and shares given.

Based on the latest research, market seems like giving YTLP 10 P/E.

Can't imagine i top up with price 1.33...
i think i must be mad.

@dragon328
SEA has a 60% stake in the digital bank JV while YTLP has 40%,

Im not sure, really hope so.

Didn‘’t expected today YTLP still got power like last friday.

What is the fair price? Hmm...

RM2, bro.

No doubt, SEA Group is a capable partner. What i am concern is who will lead this digital bank.
From the news i had read before, seems like YTLP has strong desire to be the boss instead of become second man.
i have no query if Sea become the leader of the digital bank.

I really appreciate your articles and help me hold YTLP shares tightly until now. Thanks bro.

https://juristech.net/juristech/are-digital-banks-profitable/

我一路来都悲观认为，YTLP将来的数码银行，将会是第二个YES。
一个YES已经够力了，再加上另一个数码银行坑。。。
希望YTLP的数码银行越迟启动越好。

假如YTLP大马部门的能力，有A Capital团队的实力，我举手举脚赞成快快开启数码银行。
可惜，YTLP大马部门的能力，有目共睹的。。。

下一季的报告继续值得期待。
1. 新加坡的贡献还会持续，因为有电力供应商和政府是有短合约的，加上炎热气候、新加坡经济不错、马币继续跌、电子车充电站的建造和启用、大马出口再生能源。希望约旦的启动费不会太昂贵（应该会不少，因为累积了大约两年。约旦发电站一路来都有运作，不过由于官司因素，收入只一点点）。不过，既然提到启动费，表示在暂时的亏损之后，就是盈利的贡献。
2. 英国的收费调整是从今年4月开始，所以，下一季应该会由亏转盈。
3. YES的亏损，一季100M绝对不会是顶限。YES在亏钱上，非常专业。如果你留意过去YES部分的财报，你就会发现他们很会拿捏亏损的程度。当YTLP赚多的时候，YES就亏多。当YTLP赚少的时候，YES就很奇妙地，既然亏少了。可以说，YES的财报很精明。
4. 数据中心会继续烧钱，还要再烧三季。

Target price of RM2.05.

Long way to go.
Anyway, huat ah.

RHB research
We are also guided that the 45%-owned oil shale plant in Jordan has commissioned its first turbine but could incur start-up losses.

Let's pengsan together.
Wondering, why only 2.5 sen, so KS one.

Please give us more dividend... nowadays life is so difficult. Susah cari makan o

UK economy shows signs of recovery despite inflation's drag
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britains-economy-grows-fastest-pace-year-pmi-2023-04-21/

英国经济有复苏的趋势。

马币兑英镑，1Q23，跌了不少。
马币兑新币，1Q23，也跌了一些。

约旦的第一次贡献，应该不远了。

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/04/19/ytl-power-to-see-solid-earnings-in-fy23

The 45%-owned Jordan plant’s commissioning is now complete, pending final certification.
From latest RHB research.

呵呵，RHB的TP这么快又再次上调。看来来自约旦的惊喜不远了哦。

忍住不卖，一个股也不卖。

终于摆脱仙股了。
太感动了。。。虽然还是住高楼。

若2023 只有8.6仙，表示2023财政年的下半年盈利不会有惊喜，反而可能有一点惊吓。