Posted by keithlauct > 2013-06-26 08:38 | Report Abuse

Pantech: In the long run stock prices follow earnings The company is on track to achieve double digit earnings growth for the next few years. Demand for its pipe, fittings and flow control products is underpinned by rising capital spending in the local, led by national oil company Petroliam Nasional Bhd, and global oil and gas (O&G) industry. The manufacturing arm exports worldwide with strong demand coming from the US, Latin America and even Europe. High value-added products produced by UK-based Nautic Steels are approved by almost all the oil majors. Given the upbeat outlook and order book, Pantech is in the midst of finalising the purchase of a second plot of land near Nautic's existing factory. This would give it extra space for additional equipment and warehouse storage. Locally, the stainless steel plant broke even in the fourth quarter ended February of 2013 financial year (FY13), although it remained in the red for the whole of FY13. Utilisation at the stainless steel plant is now reaching full capacity on a single shift. The carbon steel plant is running at full capacity, including for the most recent equipment additions. At the current price of 92 sen, Pantech's shares are very attractively valued — at only 7.4 and 6.4 times our forecast earnings for FY14 to FY15 respectively — relative to both its projected growth rate and valuations for the broader market. The O&G sector, meanwhile, is trading around 15 to 20 times forward earnings. Having already spent the majority of planned capital expenditure (capex) for construction of the stainless steel plant over the past three years, capex will drop sharply going forward — barring any major acquisition such as that for Nautic back in March 2012. Thus, gearing is forecast to fall on the improved cash flow from operations, from 47% at end-FY13 to an estimated 31% by end-FY15. This will support the company's dividend payments going forward. Pantech has paid out an average of nearly 46% of annual net profit in the past three years. Assuming a similar payout ratio, dividends will increase to 5.5 to 6.5 sen per share for FY14 to FY15 respectively, in line with higher earnings. This will give shareholders comparatively attractive net yields of 6% to 7.1% for the two years. Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.