Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-23 20:54 | Report Abuse

下定决心，不怕困难，排除万难，去追求胜利。

对我来说，1/3的薪水储蓄不难做到，投资保本也不难做到. 投资股票每年16%的复利增长（10%资本+6%股息）就很难做到。

或许现在很多人说他们这兩年的回酬率都是20%或以上。他们並沒骗你，只是没告诉你常期回酬率吧了。我看过报導说股神的长期回酬也只是19%，我们就现实点接受自己是不可能只差股神3%的事实吧。几年前冷眼前輩曾说新加坡Tamasek的精英也达不到16%,我们就认了吧。

我倒是觉得8-13%是比较实際。不过现实中只怕只有很少数的打工族可以做到。原因在於股市=赌场，专挑战人性的弱点。若你能战胜本身的弱点，你就有很大机会成功。雖然我没有数据，不过我敢猜不到10%的打工＋投资族可以达标。我本身就是20年的失敗者，除非在最后的十年我可赶超平均数。

我一直以来都梦想成为那10%的成功者。其实我是很努力及充满信心终有一天达标。同志们，让我们一起努力吧。下定决心，不怕困难，排除万难，去追求胜利。

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-23 21:04 | Report Abuse

找到:冷眼(冯时能)， 分享集19-May-2008　: 李光耀的投资智慧: 新加坡政府投资机构由1981年成立至2005年的25年中，每年的平均回酬为9.5%。

美国过去200年的股市回酬，约为10%．

股神巴菲特以取得15%的复利回酬为目标，已是很高的标准。

脚踏实地的投资者，如果能取得比经济成长更高的回酬，已算是很特出的表现，

Posted by Eric Wong > 2013-11-23 21:26 | Report Abuse

ya, you're right, bsngpg. I just started investment this year and it's quite lucky that i have few senior friends shared their experiences with me while breakfast time or tea time and they're all valuable. It's kinda hard for as many don't spend their time to study and they rather listen to the gossip and follow the "goreng style" for easy and fast money.
Anyhow, i'm still try to learn the analysis from our sifu here after i found this website and its so useful. Of coz some tips from Coldeye which he recommended.

After all, let's all earn money :)

Posted by ipomember > 2013-11-23 22:21 | Report Abuse

而投资股票每年16%的复利增长

this is the problem lol, in bull market everyone can be genius, but in bear market, preserving your capital can be hard sometimes not to mention about capital appreciation. So if you want to have a long term CAGR of 16% in your capital, you must earn extra more during bull market, to offset the potential lost or nil return during bear market(unless you can earn even during bear market). Lets be realistic, this is not easy indeed. Try to ask yourself honestly, this year market has reached its all time high,we are in a bullish market so far, what is your total return YTD? If you are negative return, you might as well need to ponder on your own strategies, or whether you are suitable or not in doing share investment. If you can do well, can your strategies be working when the market turning bear? hehe. Please share la if you dont mind....

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-23 23:01 | Report Abuse

Hi KC Chong : many see you(actually you are) as an experience long term value investor. May you share you view on reasonable long term return from Bursa for ordinary investors (those not as skillful as you but not greedy too).
Thank you.

Posted by ipomember > 2013-11-23 23:04 | Report Abuse

Bsngpg, i see you also an experience investors having invested in bursa for many years, if you dont mind to share your experience during bull/bear market? hehe

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-23 23:12 | Report Abuse

我本身就是20年的失敗者. 败军之将, 何足言勇.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-23 23:24 | Report Abuse

In fact I always shared my opinions on both Bull and Bear markets. The posts in early morning has touched on this a bit. My asessment on Zhulian disclosed my approach in Bull market. Again I need to reiterate that 我本身就是20年的失敗者. 败军之将, 何足言勇.

Posted by ipomember > 2013-11-23 23:31 | Report Abuse

lol. i think they is no need for you to look down on yourself, at least you are experience and you have gone through the failure and mistakes which allow you to avoid it in your investment now. Coming years will be your years. cheer

Posted by Eric Wong > 2013-11-23 23:32 | Report Abuse

PPls learnt from mistake. By the way, bsngpg ur past experiences will help us from getting the same path :)

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 08:44 | Report Abuse

在牛市面前，我一直都是谦卑，战战兢兢，如履薄冰。抱着随时把手头上的纸上賺幅送给大熊，甚至须割肉餵熊，以期待下轮牛市翻本加赚利。

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 09:02 | Report Abuse

My Simple Recipe:

Let us put those who have high self discipline aside. Most of the investors in Bursa do not have high self discipline, certainly I am one of them. My approaches in Bursa are more or less as the below:

i) Reshuffle my portfolio to get DIVIDEND YIELD higher than FD rate. This is a very important preparation to weather through the big BEAR. Some sifu said: before making $, prepare to loss $ first.

ii) BUY LESS in hot market even though I miss opportunity to earn more as compared to others(may be ironically I learn more, who knows?). Capitalize the Bull to earn maximum profit is a “Lip Service” term. I remind myself everyday not to fall into this trap. Every coin has two faces. When you expect maximum profit from Bull, in other way you expose your maximum capital to Bear. I like to earn from Bear more than Bull.

iii) I DO NOT SELL(or very seldom) as I do not know when to sell. Furthermore I will feel pain to sell biz which gives me higher dividend yield than FD. Ha! Ha! I think this one kills me.

iv) I work hard to get NEW FUND to buy maximum in Bear market. This is the key to win.

v) Most of the time, I just SIT and WAIT. I do not trade a lot. Not more than 15 times on 10 counters in this year.

All winning seniors: What are your opinions?

Posted by Eric Wong > 2013-11-24 09:15 | Report Abuse

Like yours one. I can't comment much as i'm too new. Currently with 6 counters and aim for long term invest.
1st have to discipline myself while searching for good ctrs.

Anywhere, morning bsngpg...good sunny Sunday :)

Posted by ProfitMan > 2013-11-24 09:48 | Report Abuse

bsngpg, yr recipe is not wrong as long as you are comfortable with it & make money from it. You are right that most investors lack self discipline (sometimes i too lack self discipline)but self discipline and emotion control is the most important part of investing.

Posted by tkg8 > 2013-11-24 10:29 | Report Abuse

bsngpg, your are absolutely on the right track of investment advocated by Warren Buffet! Only focus on a few counters which you are familiarize and keep them for years which you will enjoy lucrative return!

Posted by ipomember > 2013-11-24 10:30 | Report Abuse

Eric wong, like you i am new, holding few counters and planning it for long term, what is the counters you are holding if you dont mind to share? Personally i think regardless of what method one is adopting, as long as he/she can still making money(of course at least beat the inflation+some premium to compensate the risk taken), it is still considered growing their funds in a better way.

Posted by ipomember > 2013-11-24 10:42 | Report Abuse

@Tankw

I admit reading books can help a lot in investment, but reading too much is not, at least for me. Different people will have different method and mindset when comes to investment. We dont have to learn everything, find out the one that work best for yourself, adopt it and monitor the result, if it works well, that will be good enough. I read quite some academic kind of investment books before, but i found out that investing by solely follow the books is not a good way, the books give me knowledge, but not the investing philosophy. I believe one with high level of education(lets say he/she got CFA), doesn't ensure to have higher return from stock market, same stock bought from two different people at same price might not yield the same return because of different philosophy. Personally i think Peter Lynch's ways of investment is so much comfortable for me.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 10:53 | Report Abuse

Ipomember : I started to read your posts after your sensible comments on gloves industry. Contrary to your “new” comment, your posts showed that you are experience and wise. You are very likely a winner in long term. Good luck, pal. Let us interact more frequently. OK ?

Posted by connie > 2013-11-24 10:58 | Report Abuse

hi ipomember, cud u kindly provide the link on your comments on gloves industry ? i read your post on dksh and like your optimism on this counter.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 11:04 | Report Abuse

@Tankw ：　对你一直以来所做出的大量文章贡献：我只能说“敬佩，感恩”。我欠你。

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 11:12 | Report Abuse

Not to show off here but rather to encourage you to read in detail. Most of the articles by Len Yan（冷眼）, I read for not less than 3 times. Few articles I read even more than 20 times till I can memorize them.

Posted by ipomember > 2013-11-24 11:25 | Report Abuse

@bsngpg

I am very willing to interact as well as learning from you. Hope we can generate consistent return year on year. Good luck to us.

@connie

Frankly say i cant remember i made any "sensible" comments on glove industry. I bought into harta on this year, and yes i read a report of glove industry, perhaps some information i retrieved from the report.

Posted by connie > 2013-11-24 11:26 | Report Abuse

ipomember, do u mind to share why u chose harta ? many thanks :)

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 11:35 | Report Abuse

Ｈａｒｔａ　ｉｓ　ｔｈｅ　ｖｅｒｙ　ｒｉｇｈｔ　ｃｈｏｉｃｅ．Ｗａｉｔ　ｆｏｒ　　ｉｐｏｍｅｍｂｅｒ　ｔｏ　ｔｅｌｌ　ｈｉｓ　ｓｔｏｒｙ　ｗｉｔｈ　Ｈａｒｔａ．

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 11:42 | Report Abuse

打工仔的悲哀:“人生如甘蔗，被榨了30年，蔗汁榨干了，人老力衰，有如蔗渣，没有被利用的价值了，只好向职场说“拜拜”。 " This was the golden statement pushing me into Bursa and no return.
我的最爱: 12-Nov-07 渡晚年 有尊严, 冷眼,分享集

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 11:44 | Report Abuse

16-Jun-08, 谁说打工仔与百万无缘？ KLCI=1238 不少五星级股票，周息率高达8%，如果长期持有，股票每年增值5%，就可以取得13%的回酬，超过12%的目标。 只买五星级股票，着重股息。

29-Sep-08, 打工仔的生天 KLCI=1028, 要致富，需投资。惟一要做的，是做很多的功课，知道什么银行是最好的， 在低价时买进，紧握不放。 只要有关公司的盈利继续上升， 就不卖。

13-Oct-08, 第13个月薪金 KLCI=945, GOOD:退休时，你的投资收入，最低限度，应该等于你最后一个月的薪金;退休时，你拥有13家五星级公司的股票,每只每年发给你1万令吉的股息.Capital=1.3mil@10%yield

Posted by ipomember > 2013-11-24 11:46 | Report Abuse

@connie,

Before i buy into a glove company, i was wondering what is the industry cycle now for glove sector. As you know i bought into harta on this year, their business as well as share price has been growing so much from past few years,i am afraid that i am actually buying at the peak of the cylce or perhaps, decline. However, after i read the report i know that the demand for glove are growing at CAGR of 20% foe N years, and it will be going at this rate for the coming 2 to 3 years as claimed by the report. Demand for nitrite gloves are outgrowing rubber gloves every year. After i read the report(coincidentally with the outburst of bird flu), i remember i made my decision to buy harta in a short time, for me its obvious that harta is a better companies by comparing the ratio among the peers. highest profit margin, highest roe, consistent grow 20%+ on revenue and earning year on year(if my memories serve me well). I bought into it at PE of around 18, which is the highest among others during that time. I am ok with the valuation because good business don't come with cheap price(that's why i am aware when some people promoting some good stock but trading at low P/E),and PEG for harta is still below 1, so i reckon this is a good buy. Aside from the financial part, harta also focus on R&D which provides them with better operating efficiency(upcoming they will start to have automated machine to produce glove)and hence, higher margin.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 11:50 | Report Abuse

以上几遍文章, 构成我投资价值观.

Posted by kcliew > 2013-11-24 11:57 | Report Abuse

company who focus on R&D will continue to be the leader in its industry...Harta , jia yu.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 12:04 | Report Abuse

Ipomember : "the demand for glove are growing at CAGR of 20% for N years, and it will be going at this rate for the coming 2 to 3 years as claimed by the report" is incorrect. Do not trust that report on this. The rests you are spot on.

Posted by connie > 2013-11-24 12:10 | Report Abuse

thanks so much ipomember :)

Posted by Eric Wong > 2013-11-24 12:13 | Report Abuse

#Ipomember - recently i just locked in Kfima, CBIP, KNM-WA and L&G-LA. Before i joined here, i have some on G-PACKET, YTLPWR-WB. Also, i'm gamudian and of coz most of my capital in GAMUDA ESOS.

Posted by ipomember > 2013-11-24 12:13 | Report Abuse

@bsngpg

Why are you saying so? Could you please enlighten further? I believe "the demand for nitrile glove will be growing at 20% for the next 2 to 3 years" is just a projection which barring any unforeseen circumstances. I had been raising my queries to their IR and that is the figures provided by them as well.

Posted by connie > 2013-11-24 12:21 | Report Abuse

hi eric, both kfima and cbip are mr ooi teik bee's recommendation. he also mentioned tdm, jtiasa and homeriz. i am looking at homeriz, fibon and hexza now. hope to grab some when prices are dipping :)

Posted by Eric Wong > 2013-11-24 12:30 | Report Abuse

hi connie, homeriz also under my monitoring list after i saw the analysis done by kcchongz. Get to know Kfima and CBIP from coldeye's articles. Currently still accumulate more capital and wait for "good chance" to go in.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 12:49 | Report Abuse

Hi Eric Wong : since we have chance to meet here, showing that we have some fate chemistry. My 100% sincere advice to you is to take a big step backward, think 3 times or must well exist the current hot market. In my view you are unlucky to start your journey with the risky path, more so at the risky time. I cannot elaborate more else there will be many canons shooting me. Hopefully you can get my altruistic message. Take a big step backward, Think 3x. Good luck.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 12:53 | Report Abuse

Ipomember : your question is expected.
http://www.rubbernews.com/article/20130906/NEWS/130909967/speaker-overcapacity-looms-as-glove-industry-thrives

Posted by Eric Wong > 2013-11-24 12:57 | Report Abuse

#bsngpg - noted and thanks for the advice. :) Have to be more dicipline and wait patiently. if i can learn about the investment few years back. Haha, when i just started my work. :)

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 13:01 | Report Abuse

ipomember : Generally, the industry players are guiding 8-12% growth in global glove consumption p.a. depending on whether there is any disease outbreak during the year.

http://www.google.com.my/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEAQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.supermax.com.my%2Fhtml%2Ffiledownload.aspx%3Ffile%3DALLIANCE%2520-RUBBER%2520GLOVE%2520-%2520120208%2520-%2520INITIATION.PDF&ei=kYWRUr50z-utB4aqgcgO&usg=AFQjCNHX89nWq9fRdlM2x7g7xnoecWOemg&sig2=3znUvbKuh1bLWuYutqqDLQ

[PDF]Rubber Glove Sector - Supermax Corporation Berhadwww.supermax.com.my/.../filedownload.aspx?...RUBBER%20GLOVE%...‎Cached
SimilarFeb 8, 2012 - Based on our estimates, the global glove industry's utilisation rate would ... growth due to its contract-manufacturing expansion and improved ...

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 13:03 | Report Abuse

ipomember : I understood from insiders that many of gloves manufacturers in Malaysia(maybe except Harta) cannot fill up their installed capacity.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 13:09 | Report Abuse

ipomember : I understood from insiders also that profit margin of nitrile gloves has been lately squeezed to single digit or close to single digit(again maybe Harta is an exceptional case for its super efficiency). Kimberley Clark(world leader on nitrile exam gloves) has just spun off their glove biz to a smaller company which will definitely go very aggressively to press down the margin of OEM in M’sia in order to increase its own margin.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 13:17 | Report Abuse

Hi Eric Wong: our definition on “Have to be more discipline and wait patiently” is totally different. In my definition of discipline, most of your selections in your portfolio are not related to discipline. SORRY, I am too busy body, please just ignore if you dislike my comment.

Posted by Eric Wong > 2013-11-24 13:38 | Report Abuse

No worry, i know what you mean. That's why i said i have to "learn" be discipline . Nothing to sorry about since i open my portfolio here and i expect comments.

Posted by Eric Wong > 2013-11-24 13:40 | Report Abuse

by the way, if i dislike comments, then i won't start to post here, rather sitting there silently and watching all comments. :)

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 13:43 | Report Abuse

Nice to know you.

Posted by Eric Wong > 2013-11-24 13:50 | Report Abuse

Same here, nice to know this forum and all the sifus around. By the way, do you involved in TA or just pure FA. Sorry, lazy to suft the history back there. :)

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-24 14:07 | Report Abuse

I am neither TA nor FA. I like FA but incapable to do so. So I am a simple street man using common sense.

Posted by Eric Wong > 2013-11-24 14:11 | Report Abuse

Lots of time, these common senses beat the TA and FA specialist :). Anyhow, lunch time. Again, thanks for sharing and your advice.

Posted by ipomember > 2013-11-24 14:18 | Report Abuse

@bsngpg

haha, too much information for me to digest now.. Thanks for your sharing. appreciated