Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-03-03 12:25 | Report Abuse

Uncle koon, I will do a thorough analysis of kulim (provided there is sufficient publicly available information, including age profile, etc) and give my view on the stock.

But just to pre empt you, I will be independent. If I concur with your recommendation, I will say so. Otherwise I will make an opposite recommendation

Thank you and enjoy your lunch

Posted by 3happy > 2014-03-03 12:32 | Report Abuse

Uncle Koon - Can you comment on the Tiong Nam Logistics? Thank you

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-03-03 12:36 | Report Abuse

3happy, please read my article carefully and apply the knowledge to check on the stock Tiong Nam. Why did you buy it? Does it have the most important quality of making increasing more profit?

Posted by AyamTua > 2014-03-03 12:40 | Report Abuse

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > Mar 2, 2014 10:57 PM | Report Abuse

Ayam Tua, I cannot understand why you bought Hexza. In 2003 its eps was 2.2 sens and in 2013 its eps was also 2.2 sens. Its average eps in the last 10 years is about 4 sens. As a result the highest price in the last 10 years was 72 sens. Why are you still keeping it.

If I am not mistaken, you recommended Hexza before.

---

Uncle...

Conclusions
Hexza qualifies as Graham net net investment strategy with a wide margin of safety. It can also stand on its own as a value investment stock as a going concern with the high dividend yield investing strategy.

Link: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_challenge_2013_2h/40677.jsp

Posted by AyamTua > 2014-03-03 12:41 | Report Abuse

Uncle Koon - chip in a bit lah into NTPM, HEXZA and AHB if can.. kikikiki hahaaaaa

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-03-03 14:02 | Report Abuse

uncle koon, i scrolled down Kulim's annual report for 2012 and my mouse stopped at page 81 (to be more specific, the 3 pie charts at the bottom).

I have no further comments on Kulim

have a nice day

Posted by aliyusof > 2014-03-03 14:14 | Report Abuse

Uncle Koon, i always buy based on good dividend per share track record (only profit making can allow this over a period of times) and a healthy balance sheet (low gearing and good net current asset). Are these good enough? Anything to look at? Thanks, Sifu.

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-03-03 14:26 | Report Abuse

dear Mr Koon-- thank you very much for the reply. no i am not in ancon and mitrajaya.. ok mudajaya i will hold it, according to your advise. but when it start s rocketing up please be arround to guide us on selling.. end of march the first powerplant fires, but i does not know when a strong rerating will start taking place.. i think strong rerating might be given by CIMB. are the analyst going to rerate the stock after firing all of the 4 powerplants, or just after the first powerplant.. i read a old report of CIMB, title SHOW ME THE POWER

Posted by Fung Chee Fui > 2014-03-03 14:44 | Report Abuse

Thanks Mr Koon. I have been following your writings in other mediums for awhile but did not aware that you have been actively blogging here. Glad that I finally found it and I look forward to more teachings from you in the future.

Posted by Fung Chee Fui > 2014-03-03 14:56 | Report Abuse

Very good points written Mr Koon. I agree that knowing the company well is by far the most essential factor of thriving in investing. On top of that, I also think that knowing the personality, risk-taking level and the capital allocation skills of the management is equally important. While we -- the small investors -- have no privilege to meet the management team, I think we are still able to evaluate the CEO-&-co by analyzing the business decisions made in the past, such as taking borrowings, making sensible acquisitions, buying back shares when it is cheap, developing new products/ services, managing the profit margin, etc etc etc.

If a management team is honest, capable and long-term oriented, paying 15x P/E for the stocks may still seem sensible.

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-03-03 15:28 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/03/03/Construction-outfit-tipped-to-be-prime-beneficiary-from-RM11bil-power-plant-job/ on MUDAJAYA

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-03-03 15:30 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, please write to me koonyewyin@gmail.com about your finding in Kulim 2012 annual report. I wish to know your opinion.

Ayam Tua, after I said that Hexza's eps was 2 sens in 2003 and 2 sens in 2013 and the average eps for the last 10 years is about 4 sens, you still said that it complies with Benjamin Graham's fundamental criteria in share selection. If you have kept it in the last 10 years how much is your profit? There is no share price appreciation and the dividend can hardly cover interest charges and inflation. I trust Ayam Tua know what to do for himself.

Posted by metalmonk > 2014-03-03 16:12 | Report Abuse

Mr Koon, for Kulim, the potential for it's growth, in profit surge was due to its New zealand plantations (NBPOL) in 2012. Main reason NBPOL is making less profit due to higher cost of sales. The loss in early 2013 can be attributed to forex, where USD-PGK exchange rate has resulted in losses of USD 14.2 million for NBPOL as well.

do you still think there are potential growth with external challenges from NBPOL?

Posted by thumxj > 2014-03-03 16:20 | Report Abuse

From the news posted by johnny cash, it pointed out that "Wong said the first unit would be commissioned by the third quarter of this year, and the other three units to be commissioned in stages soon after."
Does it refer to year 2013 or 2014? Is that a copy paste from old news in 2013 or it is a fresh interview with COO James Wong?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-03-03 16:26 | Report Abuse

uncle koon, I think I better discuss here. Discussing it through emails might make others suspect that there is something fishy about kulim, which is not the case

actually no big secret. It is about the age profile.

in line with the spirit of this thread about looking for growth drivers to propel valuation to higher level decisively, my immediate focus is on the group "4 to 8 years" (Age 1 to 3 years are too young to have a big impact over next two to three years on FFB production, which is my investment horizon. Age > 9 years are prime already and hence unlikely to contribute to FFB spike also).

Accroding to back of envelope calculation, the age group "4 to 8 years" accounts for 24% of planted area. It is still a good profile, but not the kind of super driver that we discussed in this thread (on the other hand, compared to Kulim, jtiasa's maturity profile is much more conducive for FFB spike. But that is a different story, to be discussed at difference forum)

having said all these things, the question is whether Kulim is a Buy at this stage ? My answer is that it is not a bad idea, as I am pretty comfortable with the notion that CPO will be strong for at least two years (I could be wrong). Rising tide lifts all boats, so unlikely your investment in Kulim is going to turn sour in a big way. For a big player like you, a 10% capital gain will produce so much profit that you can eat KFC everyday for the next twenty years (KFC is a luxury for small people like me)

so why not ?

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-03-03 16:29 | Report Abuse

thumxj, please look at Business Time on Mudajaya which I just posted

Posted by Fung Chee Fui > 2014-03-03 16:33 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, Mr Koon's comment prompted me to read your comments and they are brilliant. Thanks for sharing your knowledge.

On top of your suggestion to look at stocks that not covered by analyst, I also believe that it is very sensible to look into stocks that are not yet invested by the institutional investors like EPF or mutual funds. Chances are there if we can spot it before the institutions, and when they do, the P/E will expand accordingly on top of the earnings growth, if any.

Posted by metalmonk > 2014-03-03 16:35 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, what then you think about their Newzealand business for Kulim. I prefer definately Jtiasa, but not still convinced because i can't really find out where the higher sales cost incur on NBPOL.

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-03-03 16:36 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, thank you for your opinion on Kulim.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-03-03 16:40 | Report Abuse

thanks FCF. I considered myself very lucky. Somehow, from Day 1 i started investing, I have been buying and selling shares based on the concept we discussed in this thread. I dont know why I behaved in such a way. I just feel VERY comfortable about it.

this discussion of kulim brought back fond memory as Kulim was the FIRST srock I ever invested. I borrowed RM1,400 from my brother in 1998 (at the tail end of financial crisis) and bought 2,000 shares at 70 sen. Within few weeks Kulim went up to RM1.10. I sold the shares and treated myself KFC. Nice

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-03-03 16:46 | Report Abuse

uncle koon, since you are active in this forum (can see you are having a great time here), may I suggest that you write an article abut your experience during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 / 1998 ?

I was lucky I havnt invested in stockmarket when the crisis happened, but I witnessed the disastrous effect it had on my friends, relatives, collaeuges and even the kopitiam near my house. The Asian Fianncial Crisis left an indelible mark on me mentally. Until now I am still haunted by the prospects of sometning like that happening again.

It would be nice if we can hear your story

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-03-03 16:48 | Report Abuse

metalmonk, not new zealand lah. despite its anglo saxon name, New Britian is a small island off the coast of Papua New Guinea. Sorry I dont have further details on NBPOL

Posted by metalmonk > 2014-03-03 16:56 | Report Abuse

yea, its at papua new guinea. my geography not so accurate..
i think this also makes it harder to really see if a company will have real growth drivers and etc. Sometimes, there are just numbers in reports that we can't see.

Posted by thumxj > 2014-03-03 17:01 | Report Abuse

Yes, I have read it. Mr. Koon. It seems like a little bit more patience is needed before the recurrent income from power generation can come into fruition.

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-03-03 17:10 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, since I started posting articles on this forum about 2 months ago, I have never worked so hard ever since I retired as Director of IJM Corp 16 years ago when I reached the age of 65 years. I must say I always enjoyed writing and teaching people how to make money from the stock market. That is what I know best.

As you know, one of my investment philosophy is to think like a businessman who is always fearless, always look at how to take advantage of any situation to make more money. I want to encourage people to have the guts to invest if you have found a good stock. Don't be afraid. As I said fear is often the biggest obstacle to success.

Bearing that in mind, I should not write about the 1997/8 financial crisis and market crash just to frighten people unnecessarily.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-03-03 17:15 | Report Abuse

ha ha it is real funny... by saying that " I should not write about the 1997/8 financial crisis and market crash just to frighten people unnecessarily.", I can tell you must have gone through hell during 1997 / 1998...

ha ha ha please correct me if I am wrong...

Posted by Alphabeta > 2014-03-03 17:24 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr Koon, i understand that you have recommended to invest in Coastal Contracts a few years back but sold all your stake after the company earning growth suffer a beating when the company gave one off discount to loyal customers due to poor charter rate and intense competition.

Its order books then did not expand fast enough to feed rising revenue which have expanded in the region of 34% from 2008 to 2009 and 45% from 2009 to 2010. Its after tax profit for the same periods also grew 68% and 24% respectively. After that it was downhill all the way until recently.

Knowing Petronas is investing RM300bil in the next 5 years and Coastal will benefit from increasing order books for OSV in future once the marginal oil fields are operational.

The question i wanted to post here is why you decided to sell Coastal Contract. Is it because it suffered temporary setback on profit growth or there is no prospect to grow in the industry it is serving?

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-03-03 17:30 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, when stock market crash in 1997/8 or in the previous one, most small players will naturally get hurt. But rich people with a lot of surplus collateral, they could take advantage to buy more shares at cheap sale.

In 1983/4 when China wanted to take back Hong Kong, the stock market crashed. All my friends told me that I was crazy to buy HK shares when the communists would soon nationalize all HK assets. I made so much money that I eventually bought 46% of a stock broking company in H.K.

Posted by Fung Chee Fui > 2014-03-03 17:39 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, you sounded like a stocks-market veteran and it is my guess that your are not any small potato. Based on what you wrote and your starting date right after the 97/98 Crisis, I guess you have gained substantially in your net worth.

Mr Koon, I am also interested to hear your experience during the 97/98 Crisis and I think it will be very educational but not frightening. Anyway, it is your rights whether to write or not. You are already very helpful in sharing with us. :)

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-03-03 17:40 | Report Abuse

Alphabeta, yes Coastal was one of larger investment holdings a few years ago. I sold when the price shot through the roof and since then I have not been following its progress. I understand it is doing very well. Best wishes to you.

Posted by Alphabeta > 2014-03-03 18:06 | Report Abuse

I agreed with your recommendation and indeed it is a company which can manage its capex and borrowings well to sustain earning growth in the long run and deliver reasonable dividend payment.

What i admired most about the management is their courage to sink and swim with their customers. That is a plus point for long term support from loyal customers.

Posted by ktboo > 2014-03-03 22:25 | Report Abuse

Dear Uncle Koon, do you look at KSL? are this a good share? should I buy in the core-share or warrant KSL-WA? Thanks for your great sharing. appreciate.

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-03-04 00:20 | Report Abuse

ktboo, I do not know KSL well enough to advise you. You have to read my article to understand and check if KSL has the most important quality of making increasingly more profit in the next few years.

Posted by Eamonn9883 > 2014-03-04 00:35 | Report Abuse

Mr.Koon, need urban advice on Success Transfomer & BJ Food ? Do u still consider this 2 as a growing stocks ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-03-04 10:49 | Report Abuse

Uncle Koon, I am going to do something that is very POLITICALLY INCORRECT for fundamental analysts like you and me. I am going to dip my toe in Technical Analysis.

I bought PJDev-WC at 31 sen in early 2011, it never moves until October 2013. Some of the members of this forumn went in EXACTLY at that point at 33 sen based on Technical Analysis (unlike me, who went in 2011 and held for three full years). They rode the big wave all the way to 80 sen and cashed out.

I am still sticking to my trial and tested way of picking stock based on fundamentals (everything we discussed in this thread). However, due to the recent exprience, I am intellectually very curious about Technical Analysis. For me, I have almost reached a plateau for fundamental analysis (cough cough, pardon me for making such a bold claim. I am just trying to illustrate a point), so it is time to poke my nose into something new and mysterious.

I am sure you must be sitting there shaking your head in disbelief...

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-03-04 11:08 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, if you know technical analysis, you can use it to guide your move after you have identified a fundamentally good share. That is the best combination. Together with the advantage of margin finance, you will be laughing frequently to your bank.

You cannot do this method if you have a full time job, working for some body. I think you are not a professional. You are just like me.

If you are holding on a full time job, the best way is to buy fundamentally good shares and hold.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-03-04 11:28 | Report Abuse

Sounds like you are not totally adverse to technical analysis ? You don't think it is a total nonsense ?

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-03-04 11:49 | Report Abuse

Although I do not know technical analysis, I can appreciate its usefulness. It can help you to decide buy, hold or sell.

I think you are just like me, not a professional.

Posted by Michael Teng > 2014-03-04 12:09 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr YY Koon,

Thanks a lot for your insightful articles.
I am always looking forwards to your new writeups.

Stay healthy and best wishes always.

Once again, thanks !

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-03-04 13:43 | Report Abuse

Uncle koon I am just an ordinary working class. Occasionally I made some money from stock market

Posted by Optimus1 > 2014-03-04 19:39 | Report Abuse

I believe Uncle koon is good in catching big trend. those stocks he mentioned in his past articles. Mpi, supermax etc. was riding on mega trend.
uncle koon do not advise u the day to day trading stocks. becos his angle is from Longtrend. I hope I m right. for Longtrending stocks or megatrend stocks. with or without TA. u still make a fortune. all the more u should not move in and out of a longtrending stock.

Posted by charlie chia > 2014-03-04 21:31 | Report Abuse

Uncle Koon
How about Sumatec which is a new baby now
can collect for future
need yr advise please

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2014-03-04 23:32 | Report Abuse

I am a shorttermer. Long term, are are all facing our Creator - Keynes.

Posted by gray > 2014-03-05 00:42 | Report Abuse

How long term is long term? beyond generations ? can i bequeath the shares to my next reincarnation?

Posted by charlie chia > 2014-03-27 22:26 | Report Abuse

Uncle koon
any good advise on Sumatec
Need yr expertise

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-03-27 22:53 | Report Abuse

Charlie chia, why can't you see that Sumatec has been losing money in the last few years. Please read this article again carefully.

Posted by charlie chia > 2014-03-27 23:52 | Report Abuse

Noted on your points
But now I am looking at it from a new born baby
which is cheap now

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-04-02 18:47 | Report Abuse

Changes in Director's Interest (S135)



Wednesday, 2 Apr 2014

6:16PM WTHORSE Liao Yuan Shun (1,500,000 units Transferred)
6:16PM OCK Ooi Chin Khoon (339,500 units Disposed)
6:15PM WTHORSE Teo Kim Tay (1,071,200 units Transferred)
6:10PM WTHORSE Teo Kim Lap (1,511,200 units Transferred)
6:09PM BOILERM Wong Wee Voo (96,000 units Disposed)
6:03PM KIANJOO DATO' SEE TEOW GUAN (150,000 units Transacted)
5:51PM CHINWEL Lim Chien Ch'eng (6,250 units Acquired)
5:40PM MMODE Ahmad Shukri Bin Abdullah (20,000 units Acquired)
5:35PM PERISAI Dato' Dr. Mohamed Ariffin Bin Hj. Aton (10,000 units Disposed)
5:35PM IHH Tan Sri Dato' Dr. Abu Bakar Bin Suleiman (24,000 units Acquired)
5:34PM IHH Dr Tan See Leng (10,055,000 units Acquired)
5:30PM DATAPRP Muhammad Fauzi Bin Abd Ghani (100,000 units Acquired)
5:29PM OSKVI Dato' Nik Mohamed Din Bin Datuk Nik Yusoff (20,000 units Disposed)
5:25PM MUDAJYA Yong Yee Coi (100,000 units Disposed)
5:24PM POHUAT TAY KIM HUAT (50,000 units Acquired)
5:14PM KNM Gan Siew Liat (12,000,000 units Transacted)
5:14PM KNM Ir Lee Swee Eng (12,000,000 units Transacted)
5:14PM PRTASCO Dato¿ Mohd Hanif bin Sher Mohamed (19,000 units Disposed)
5:13PM YINSON LIM HAN WENG (12,200,000 units Transferred)
5:09PM VOIR Ham Hon Kit (400,000 units Transacted)
5:09PM VOIR Wong Seow Mooi (33,466,533 units Transacted)
5:09PM VOIR Dr. Mohd. Amir Sharifuddin B. Hashim (4,959,529 units Transacted)
5:09PM VOIR Seow Khim Soon (33,466,533 units Transacted)
5:08PM VOIR Lee Yuet Sum (66,666 units Transacted)

DIRECTOR KEEP ON SELLING ON MUDAJAYA

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-04-24 20:23 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/50808.jsp ----- MUDAJAYA

at last the TRUTH is out no wonder ex director was selling..want to buy CAR ha......

mind games ha

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-05-27 18:39 |

Post removed.Why?