Posted by Huang > 2014-04-19 14:10 | Report Abuse

“Any Monkey Can Beat The Market”.
I echo that one should seriously learn and practise proper investment in equity to at least preserve the value of the hard earned money.

I read an article that “Any Monkey Can Beat The Market”. When cross referring to my own trades record, I am shame to admit that I were beaten by monkey. However if excluding those trades with tips, my performance would at par with monkey if not better than monkey.
So, please invest either with proper skills or learn from monkey but NEVER from tips.


FORBES - PERSONAL FINANCE 12/20/2012 @ 9:05AM |7,561 views
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/

Any Monkey Can Beat The Market

Give a monkey enough darts and they’ll beat the market. So says a draft article by Research Affiliates highlighting the simulated results of 100 monkeys throwing darts at the stock pages in a newspaper. The average monkey outperformed the index by an average of 1.7 percent per year since 1964.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-19 14:50 | Report Abuse

I must say THANK YOU, kcchongnz and Huang. I read through both the articles available here. Very useful to understand where we are in investing.

Posted by bintang21 > 2014-04-19 19:34 | Report Abuse

thank ou kccchongnz, I hope you can kindly advise me if my strategy is correct and safe. I divide my investment in 2 groups. the first group is my core investment (70%), here i invest only in debt free company, double digit roe and earning.these stocks i will keep for long term ,as long as i can if the condition is still favourable . I will sell half is the price fall 15% from the height and start slowly buy back if it fall further 15% and more if te earning of the company is still good, good mean not making losses. your ptaras and kfima ,gadang, lbs, mbb, are some of my core investment Second group i invest for excitement base on the research report. sell all if the price fall 10% from the height. I follow this priciple strictly.
Mr kccchongnz and all the sifu here please kind provide me your professional advice. How can i improve my margin of safety in my investment. is my strategy of investment appropriate in this market.

Posted by bintang21 > 2014-04-19 19:43 | Report Abuse

some of my second group are insas, prtasco, matrix, wtk

Posted by bintang21 > 2014-04-19 19:47 | Report Abuse

last friday i bought thheavy at 0.92

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-19 20:06 | Report Abuse

Investors basing on fundamental analysis do not sell a stock because it drops 15%, and then buy back when it drop further 15%. Or sell when it rises 15%, and then buy back when it goes up further 15%. They don't see the logic of doing so.

Investors based on fundamental only buys a stock if it is trading at a safety margin below its intrinsic value; and sell only when the stock price has risen close to its intrinsic value, unless the fundamentals of the company changes. Or if they need money to buy a better value stock. They don't buy and sell just because the price has risen or fallen by x%.

How to improve your margin of safety in your investment?

First you must understand what "margin of safety" means, and how to estimate the intrinsic value of a company and hence its stock.

Posted by yungshen1 > 2014-04-19 20:14 | Report Abuse

kchongnz might to share knm reduction par value from 1 to 0.50 sen.beacase need money to do big project in pengarang (rapid).tq

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-19 20:41 | Report Abuse

Posted by yungshen1 > Apr 19, 2014 08:14 PM | Report Abuse

kchongnz might to share knm reduction par value from 1 to 0.50 sen.beacase need money to do big project in pengarang (rapid).tq

Companies such as Datasonic, Jobstreet etc went for stock split and their share prices skyrocketed. Par value reduction is the opposite of it. So how can you view par value reduction as a good thing?

yungshen1, congratulation for keeping KNM despite my all negative comments of KNM. In my opinion, the fundamentals of KNM as well as my view on it has not changed a bit. The runup of its stock price is purely due to the stock price manipulation and syndicate play. Some punters will make money but a lot more will get burned.

Posted by yungshen1 > 2014-04-19 22:01 | Report Abuse

may be u are right.knm need more project to secure the high debt.the most important thing profit margin should improve and eps and pe and cash flow as well.tq kcchongnz

Posted by bintang21 > 2014-04-20 00:43 | Report Abuse

Mr kcchongnz, TQ for you reply, at the moment when the overall sentiment of the market is bad, thing may be getting worst. Is it advisible to sell part of our core stocks so that we can lower the cost price. What do you think of the training loss strategy to safeguard our capital. Pls kindly advise.TQ

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-20 05:02 | Report Abuse

Posted by bintang21 > Apr 20, 2014 12:43 AM | Report Abuse

Mr kcchongnz, TQ for you reply, at the moment when the overall sentiment of the market is bad, thing may be getting worst. Is it advisible to sell part of our core stocks so that we can lower the cost price. What do you think of the training loss strategy to safeguard our capital. Pls kindly advise.TQ

Why do you think the market sentiment is bad at the moment? How do you know it is getting worse? Why sell core stocks and not others? What do you mean by "core stocks"?

I may reduce my stock holding if the overall market is too overvalued and may even get out of the market. This is because when the overall market drops badly, few stocks are spared. If I am jittery of the market, I may reduce my holding too. It is important to be able to sleep well.

But generally my previous opinion below still holds:

Posted by kcchongnz > Apr 19, 2014 08:06 PM | Report Abuse X

Investors basing on fundamental analysis do not sell a stock because it drops 15%, and then buy back when it drop further 15%. Or sell when it rises 15%, and then buy back when it goes up further 15%. They don't see the logic of doing so.

Investors based on fundamental only buys a stock if it is trading at a safety margin below its intrinsic value; and sell only when the stock price has risen close to its intrinsic value, unless the fundamentals of the company changes. Or if they need money to buy a better value stock. They don't buy and sell just because the price has risen or fallen by x%

Posted by bintang21 > 2014-04-20 09:37 | Report Abuse

TQ Mr kcchongnz, I got what you mean. I had read your writing about intrinsic value calculation. Frankly speaking, it is not simple and easy for me, do you mind to share with me any application that can help us to get the intrinsic value of a stock. in fact, I follow most of your recommendation in i3. TQ

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-20 10:10 | Report Abuse

Posted by bintang21 > Apr 20, 2014 09:37 AM | Report Abuse

TQ Mr kcchongnz, I got what you mean. I had read your writing about intrinsic value calculation. Frankly speaking, it is not simple and easy for me, do you mind to share with me any application that can help us to get the intrinsic value of a stock. in fact, I follow most of your recommendation in i3. TQ

Application? What application? I do have a spreadsheet which is not user friendly. But valuation is an art. It is not that simple as putting in some numbers in the spreadsheet or application(?).

You need to understand and interpret financial statements, know the art of valuations. There are scores of valuation methods, each suitable for a particular situation.

Warren Buffet said before that if he were to conduct an investment course in a university, he will only teach two things; read and interpret financial statements, and the art of valuation.

Posted by pradeep > 2014-04-20 10:27 | Report Abuse

KCCHONGNZ I agree with you and what is your opinion on KFIMA ?

Posted by pradeep > 2014-04-20 10:35 | Report Abuse

Bintang21 you got all the right stocks which are fundamental . Look at TGUAN it is a fundamental stock. If you have any kindly share with me contact no 0126119153 .

Posted by bintang21 > 2014-04-20 15:33 | Report Abuse

Actually I don't bother so much about intrinsic value. I more concern on the past and future earning growth and DY Since Mr Kccchongnz stressed so much about intrinsic value, i hope i can learn a new thing, it might be useful to tell when to exit a stock. like presbhd, i bought at 0.90 and i hold until now don't know when to exit.
anyhow I am still very grateful to those who are very sincere and willing to share.TQ, bye

Posted by bintang21 > 2014-04-20 15:51 | Report Abuse

pradeep, I prefer SCIENTX more.

Posted by carson > 2014-04-20 16:11 | Report Abuse

Mr kcchongnz, no doubts about it you are cun in stock selections, looking at ptaras recent share price climb, you got very powerful fundamental stocks, congrats to those who had bought in, may i know 2 of your latest stocks recommendations.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-21 02:58 | Report Abuse

Posted by SpeedyBoy > Apr 20, 2014 10:46 PM | Report Abuse
hi kcchong, from what I read you are not too keen to invest in knm. But the hype over this counter is so strong that everyone is start to believe in the counter and has forgotten its history. What do you think based on the current financial situation of the company. Quite a number of institutions have some holding in this company. Appreciate your opinion.

I am written a number of comments on the fundamentals about KNM in i3, some of them are very detailed. My view about KNM has never changed. I have no interest of its share price movement.

Even institutional investors were fooled many years ago. What chance do the retail investors/punters has?