just cash out. Cash is king!! no matter how good fundamental the stocks, just be patient, t=you wouldn't feel surprise to buy valuable gems with fraction of money. wait for other investor to panic to sell low, lower and lowest.
Agreed with Calvin ....buy good stocks if they go down ....collect slowly ...QE effect wont last forever ....investors traders have short memories .....hahahahaha
1st: foreign fund pull out first . Everyday the news report it 2nd: crude palm oil price drop. signal china market growth limited. 3rd : house price peak 4th: penny stock volume peak .7 billion volume. All the aunties and uncles excited.
Now CRASH.
Everybody Run even though without their pants on.
Later, we realized that all this is bcos of QE123.
That's why it is the macroview come first before the microview. Not terbalik.
jolie2, 1st: Foreign equity funds had already underweighted BURSA. Very few foreign funds in BURSA now and that implies that future upside could be fast when foreign funds return. 2nd: CPO had already dropped, maybe bottom at RM 1800 to RM2,000(depends on RM FX rate to USD). With abolishment of export duty, maybe India may commence buying CPO. 3rd: Developers will have to sell more affordable homes especially selling houses less than RM 500,000 to young Malaysian households that qualify latest Budget 2015 incentives from the Msian government. Serious long term Developers with cheap sizeable land bank will thrive till 31st December 2016 4th: Penny stocks ( include small caps and mid caps) had already corrected and may possibly correct further. Nevertheless there are still undervalued penny stocks.
Market Crash? That is being very mellow dramatic. A market correction had happened and may persist for a short while more and thereafter global markets will be sideways for a while until the bull re-emerges
The drop in price of crude oil had spooked the market n created great uncertainty on the global stock markets. There is new evidence that the drop in crude oil prices is being manipulated to punish Russia. The key question to ask are - will global consumption of energy decrease or increase in the future? - can the supply of unconventional shale oil have a sustained significant impact on future crude oil supply ? The global demand for energy produced from crude oil n gas will continue to grow as more n more emerging market countries in former Soviet republics, Asia n South America aspires for US n Western European lifestyle. This can only mean that the demand for energy will increase in the future. Major oilfields in the world r facing declining production n many have resorted to enhanced oil recovery to try to maintain production volume. Unconventional shale oil n gas accounts for 2%-3% of world supply. The unconventional shale oil n gas has maximum production during the first year n thereafter the production tails off at an exponential rate where the maximum life of the shale field is 10 years. It may even be shorter.USA is now a gas exporter but how long can USA continue to export unconventional gas? The export may not be sustainable over a long time period as shale oil n gas production will be unreliable.
So the key question to ask is how long can the Price of crude oil remain at around USD 90 given that the people in the emerging economies in former Soviet republics, Asia, South America aspire for US n European lifestyle which consumes high energy on a per capita basis? As energy consumption grows in the future, the future demand for crude oil n gas may even exceed the future supply.
The unintended consequence of manipulating the crude oil price to punish Russia is that the profits of Major US Oil & Gas corporations will be negatively affected and if sustained over a long term basis, it will trigger mass layoffs in unprofitable fields. This manipulation of Crude oil price to punish Russia is untenable and may not be sustained as eventually economic discipline and market forces will take over.
The mid term USA elections is coming soon on November 4th, 2014 and it looks like Republicans candidates who are pro business have high chance of victory and will most likely secure the majority. If that happens President Obama will be a lame duck president for the remaining term in office and the manipulation of crude oil price may no longer be tenable.
US manufacturing had and are already moving back to USA and requires better infrastructure facilities in USA. It is just a matter of time that current gloom, doom and market uncertainty will soon make way for renewed optimism as Tarullo, a voting member of the Fed's policymaking committee had already hinted of future possibilities in USA
Quote: "Right now the physical capital stock (of the country) is about as old as it has been in the post World War Two era ... That suggests an underinvestment" Unquote
It will be very interesting to see who gets elected in the forthcoming mid term elections in USA on November 4th 2014. The odds are in favor of Republican candidates securing victory in their respective constituencies and also in securing a house majority in the forthcoming mid term elections...
Strengthening of the US Dollar may hurt its export and US MNC future earnings in dollar term.
Opec lead by Saudi are willing to go for a price war with US shale than to sacrifice market share. Saudi think US shale threshold is around USD 90 per barrel, anything below that is not commercially viable for them to continue unless extraction technology improve further. Anyway, a lower oil price will benefit economies in general especially airline.
With so much uncertainties, investors will be very jittery and market volatility will be inevitable. I agreed with fortunebullz to go bottom fish for fundamentally sound businesses when market get oversold.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
56,429 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-10-11 23:28 | Report Abuse
From the Chart we can conclude
1) The Collapse in 2008/2009 March was Arrested By QE1.
And When QE 1 ends there was a decline.
Same for QE 2. The pattern was repeated by Market weakness.
Coinciding with tail end of QE 3 is October month. An inauspicious month because it coincides with Oct 1929 at the start of the Great Depression.
As you can see from the Chart the Downturn is reverted by more QE
So The Fall Or Rise of Dow Jones rests not in the hands of short sellers BUT IN THE HANDS OF CENTRAL BANKERS
THE RULE OF THE GAME HAS BEEN CHANGED!