Posted by Kjsiah > 2016-02-22 11:27 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the patience in teaching

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-02-22 15:00 | Report Abuse

Market unlikely to move further if the untraded remains high at 718

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-02-24 09:07 | Report Abuse

The indicators yesterday has been bearish in terms of loser vs gainers towards the end of the day with more losers. This is not to say that the market is bearish. As the previous day and last week has been on a very bullish sentiment on KLCI however my opinion is it must break 1692 and move towards 1700 or straight of pass 1700 for more meaningful uptrend.

At one point, the gainer, loser and unchanged were very close in the 300+ region each. Approx 30% distribution each amongst them compared to earlier in the day where Gainers was leading in 62% region vs loser. While Gainers lost ground, the KLCI maintained for a while before dropping below 1680. It indicated some buechip maintaining the market momentarily as penny stocks were losing ground.
Having said market wants to recover, market also need new catalyst to move forward. The old news have been absorbed within the 3 day rule and now need more to refuel.

One of the headline I read this morning was "Oil slumps 4% as Saudi Arabia reaffirms no output cut" dated today however checking on the crude oil price is still above USD30 and the ringgit is weakening again. There are 2 sentiments here, the market sentiment and the personal sentiment. On the personal sentiment we may be happy to hear oil is still weak as that will be the only gain for consumers at the pump here with all other things being in inflation. On the market perspective, it will mean a few other things. For one those nett exporter of oil will produce even more to ensure that their income remains as we do not know when this will end. As they do that, they will also contribute to the output volume. Now supply is much higher than demand. I only wonder now if anyone will hedge oil especially when it hit USD25. The reason being avgly oil production is maintained low at USD25-30 and USD 30-35 for those with a lot offshore. Hedging here will make sense as production cost is higher than output price and play it like forex since any lower than USD25 most will call it a day. If hedging is in progress, this means that the buyer without much overlay of asset like those doing the refinery and rigging will acquire straight into their reserved. As mentioned we do not know how long this price will stay, the buyer will acquire slowly without increasing the demand.

A quick check of Top Oil producing countries will see in ranking US, followed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and Canada. Of this only one OPEC while majority OPEC only come in 6th position onwards. US is a nett importer of oil however that may not mean they will gain simply because it depends on export grade vs import grade. Eg Malaysia exports Grade A but import lower grade into the country. We may still lose. Hence if US being nett importer starts hedging, will the US dollar go up or down? Remember the law of supply and demand? Too much supply the price will go down. So here if US or any other countries starts hedging and collecting without affecting the demand oil price will still continue to stay low while the USD will get stronger? Agree?

Posted by Red_Hong_Bao > 2016-02-24 09:53 | Report Abuse

Boss Simon, your thinking so complex. Thanks ya. If USD streghtens because silent buying, and when crude oil go back up, how? US will have hong bao again

Posted by kevinspot > 2016-02-25 00:09 | Report Abuse

Biochips Market is expected to grow at the CAGR of 17.23% during 2015-2022
http://www.briskinsights.com/report/global-biochips-market-forecast-2015-2022

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-03-03 10:43 | Report Abuse

Passing 1692 is a good break. I am expecting it to pass 1700 as share above however the Gainer vs Loser must pass the 56% mark to at least 62%. If that happens, the break above 1700 is stronger.