Posted by Alpha Trader > 2016-02-26 00:15 | Report Abuse

You have not included back the impairment and write off they made for Q4, total up company should be making rm2.5M

Posted by invest1188 > 2016-02-26 00:21 | Report Abuse

I am confused why still have exchange loss as usd to myr in Q4 is the strongest at 4.30, any comments?

Posted by DetectChan > 2016-02-26 00:26 | Report Abuse

zzz.. US dollar was the strongest in Q4'15. what the heck are you talking

Posted by DetectChan > 2016-02-26 00:27 | Report Abuse

rubbish article, waste of time trying to save the share price tomorrow. Isn't it obvious that US dollar was the strongest in Q4'15??? US dollar averaged RM4.3 in Q4'15.. Hello???

Posted by invest1188 > 2016-02-26 00:32 | Report Abuse

I mean with RM4,3 in Q4 15, why geshen still have exchange loss? any comment as I am confused?

Posted by YiStock > 2016-02-26 00:39 | Report Abuse

Invest1188, USD was weakening against RM in Q4. You don't compared the 4.3 with 3.2 during the early of the year. But monitor the rate of fluctuation within last Q itself. (1 Oct to Dec 31) => USD DEPRECIATED AGAINST MYR. This is the meaning. USD loan is subject to forex gain/ loss too

Posted by YiStock > 2016-02-26 00:42 | Report Abuse

Alpha Trader, i'm using final figure as comparison.

Posted by manimaniONGG > 2016-02-26 02:03 | Report Abuse

zzzzzzzzz rubbish kindergarten research attempt.

Posted by Optimusliar > 2016-02-26 02:06 | Report Abuse

Sewel from hongkong always think he is so smart. Never write anything except talk kok of others.

Posted by manimaniONGG > Feb 26, 2016 02:03 AM | Report Abuse

zzzzzzzzz rubbish kindergarten research attempt.

Posted by manimaniONGG > 2016-02-26 06:34 | Report Abuse

Holland icon8888 talking again.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-02-26 07:02 | Report Abuse

I wonder if u still positive if myr goes back 3.80?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-02-26 07:03 | Report Abuse

This is pure speculative stock, what happen to genetec will happen here. Avoid like hell

Posted by shazali6609 > 2016-02-26 10:45 | Report Abuse

why want to wait next q3? why not just buy at 1 month before next q3 announcement? that time geshen price i think around rm1 nia

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-02-26 11:04 | Report Abuse

drop 19%, so still positive kah

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-02-26 11:05 | Report Abuse

myr 4.20 range 1Q2016, so more dead ahead

Posted by PureBULL . > 2016-02-26 11:25 | Report Abuse

Please don't be overly too KOCKY with a bit of FA knowledge.
It's also a big F knowledge, btw. At some critical pt, It can be harmful to u n others too.
Many of all these green FA fellows who r asked to hold long term will be taken to the cleaners 1 by 1. Let's wait n see their outcome.

The behavior of this stock is exactly the same as the typical killer stock like SEAL 2 yrs ago. They all displaced only 1 damn big 1st primary wave n crashed for yrs to come. No way they will give u the 3rd wave.
U r buying the price of the stock, not the co. So knowing price action behavior is more potent.
Q Earnings reports can be engineered to show it grows like super growth stock. It is usually done to fool the more educated for 4 Q, some even 8 - 10 Q.
When purebear arrives, u only know what happen to the earnings.

So for super momentum great stocks, do not hold more than 1 yr n or some for 2 yrs.
GAME OVER is the key. What else do u want ?

Expect a lot of bomb shells to go off this period.

Watch all the Wall Street movies for their modus operandi.
Smart money behind the scene will plan every thing. Then they will find 1 super charming sales man to sell n road showed the stocks, using those FA #s to charm the audience. This is the time FA reports r so useful.
By n large, people want u to con them. Use FA, I guarantee u will be super successful to attract tonnes of followers.

Posted by DetectChan > 2016-02-26 11:38 | Report Abuse

This dude is a total failure

Posted by DetectChan > 2016-02-26 11:39 | Report Abuse

Yistock, are you kidding me? If Geshen completes service and bill customer in Q4'15, it should be at Q4'15 exchange rate. What the fack are you talking about??? Loan should be using closing rate at 31 December 2015, which was RM4.3

Posted by manimaniONGG > 2016-02-26 11:40 | Report Abuse

Posted by manimaniONGG > Feb 26, 2016 02:03 AM | Report Abuse

zzzzzzzzz rubbish kindergarten research attempt.

Posted by DetectChan > 2016-02-26 11:40 | Report Abuse

If you are not clear of your facts, please do not be like Ooi Teik Bee

Posted by yistock > 2016-02-26 14:51 | Report Abuse

DetectChan, sorry to know that you suffer heavy loss. For your own sake, next time please avoid all my article at all cost. There are just kopi-o research. The best is avoid all the companies i have studied. You are right, in your way, that all the facts are not clear. Therefore, please avoid all my articles. Thank you and once again sorry for to hear for your loss.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-02-26 14:55 | Report Abuse

yistock don't get affected

detectchan is optimus

Posted by yistock > 2016-02-26 14:56 | Report Abuse

To all readers of my article out there, if you have suffer losses due to my articles, i'm very sorry about that and please avoid all my articles in future.

Cheers,

YiStock

Additional Note:

All my articles are for reading pleasure only and should not be treated as buy/ sell call on any particular company mentioned in the articles.

I can never be 100% sure on the data i sourced and correctly predict the performance of the company I mentioned in the articles.

My investment strategy is very simple, If the business fundamental is improving, i will buy in whatever amount i can. On the other hand, once i start noticing sign of deterioration, i will immediately cut the profit / losses. I only take care of downside, the upside will take care of itself

If i missed any investment opportunity, i will acknowledge i missed it. If i make a mistake on judging the source of info or material i read on certain company i invest in, i will only blame myself and vow to do better in future.

My strategy is FA come first, and forever FA.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-02-26 16:25 | Report Abuse

drop 19%, so still positive kah

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-02-26 16:25 | Report Abuse

FA also fail in BEAR mkt, take care

Posted by yistock > 2016-02-26 16:35 | Report Abuse

paperplane2016, both Bull or BEAR mkt are my friend. Thank you for your concern.

Posted by hissyu2 > 2016-02-26 18:38 | Report Abuse

Yistock, I might be wrong. But you may want to refer bursadummy blog which talked about foreign gain or loss. Based on what I know, the strong usd is still benefiticial and contribute higher revenue in myr. The fluctuation in forex is lower, that's why the other gain or loss is minimal.

Posted by yistock > 2016-02-26 20:04 | Report Abuse

hissyu2, please elaborate more so that i can seek advice from bursa dummy.

As for "strong USD contribute to higher revenue in MYR", i agreed in general. Weak ringgit will actually prompt more export in volume (but not necessary higher USD/ringgit value because customers will definetely ask for discount or manufacturer himself offer more discount).

So, in general, Ringgit at current level of RM 4.2 will certainly drive more revenue compared to when ringgit was in 3.2. This is almost for sure.

However, Weak ringgit at the same time will result in higher cost when purchase raw material IN USD or more finance cost if got USD denominated loan. Imagine if you buy raw material in Q2, and need to pay in Q4, u will have to record down the substantial realised (paid) + unrealised forex loss (trade payable) along the way.

But when come to Revenue, if you do a lot of USD sales in Q1 to Q3, you will happily registered both realised (collected payment) + unrealised forex gain (trade receivable), UP TO Q3, because ringgit has weakened from Q1 and weakest the most in Q3 (refer my article in thong guan USD loan)

But when ringgit/USD turn mixed in Q4, the dollar received will now be exchanged to much more / much less ringgit, either realised (received) or unrealised (trade receiveable). This is because When the ringgit/USD fluctuate in very narrow way, the forex gain/loss become very mixed too (almost like both loss and gain case for Q4), and not as straight forward like Q3 (forex GAIN)

I'm still establishing some evidence for this for my own future reference. I think is very important for me to be very sensitive to exchange fluctuation when invest in export stock.

If Ringgit turn strong, say above 4.00 and all the way to 3.8, then a lot of export company will most like registered exchange loss because dollar received now will exchange for lesser ringgit.. I hope you understand what i'm explaining.

Posted by yistock > 2016-02-26 20:05 | Report Abuse

Basically what i can summarized is that, it is not Q4 is not good, it was Q3 that registed too high level of forex gain which helped by higher seasonal sales volume.

Posted by fayeTan > 2016-02-26 21:24 | Report Abuse

stay strong yistock, i understand what u feel as my PetronM also performed worse than expected.

Posted by twobits > 2016-02-26 21:32 | Report Abuse

Yistock... keep up the good work! dont get affected by those keyboard warriors!

Posted by lostwayinvestor > 2016-02-26 21:47 | Report Abuse

Dont give up dude.I am looking forward for your blog..cheers^^

Posted by i4investor > 2016-02-26 22:11 | Report Abuse

U just an intention promoter, ur applogy is meaningless

Posted by hissyu2 > 2016-02-26 23:55 | Report Abuse

Yistock, if Geshen has to discount a lot due to strong USD, then it might not be good in the sense that it doesn't have too much of bargain power to its customers. let's assume the revenue in USD, didn't change for June to Dec 2015. However, I would assume Geshen doesn't have to do discount a lot due to stronger USD.

During Jun 15, 1USD = 3.7++MYR; but during end of Sept, 1 USD = 4.4MYR.
Thus, assume again, the order from company A = 10m USD in June(with profit of 1m) and the payment received during Sept. The foreign gain for this case is actually (4.4-3.7)m. which is 0.7m MYR. Thus, you should see many companies get very extensive foreign gain/loss if the company didn't hedge.

But, during Oct, 1USD = 4.4MYR; end of DEc, 1USD = 4.3MYR. FOr this case, the 1m USD profit will incur 0.1m MYR loss due to forex. And this is also why I said if the fluctation of forex is lower, the foreign gain or loss will be minimal...


p/s: The currency conversion will be determined by accountant but not using the worst/best case like i presented above.

Please refer to BD's blog:
http://bursadummy.blogspot.my/2016/01/how-to-interpret-foreign-exchange.html

Posted by hissyu2 > 2016-02-26 23:56 | Report Abuse

one more thing, if a company's growth is depending on forex gain(a.k.a other income) it is not sustainable and not real growth... Noby did mention 1 very interesting point, he likes to invest good export companies with little forex loss to protect the downside... :)

Posted by hissyu2 > 2016-02-27 00:00 | Report Abuse

As a FA follower, if i own this counter at below 1.5. I would not sell a single unit... last quarter result was "disappointing" if and only if you compare with Q3 result. But, 2015Q4 is probably the best ever Q4 result Geshen ever had :)

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-02-27 02:54 | Report Abuse

Drop 20% a day

Posted by yistock > 2016-02-27 07:11 | Report Abuse

Hissyu2, i think our understanding are the same from what you trying explain. :-)

Posted by chickenrice > 2016-02-27 08:57 | Report Abuse

ahh so many people blaming yistock. Frankly, i like his articles because of the information. He never pester you to buy or anything.
If u cut loss today, you would have lost 20% only if you bought the day before. If you bought at 1.50 why complain. why never complain when he promote TGUAN? profit up so much.

make investment calls based on your own homework and stop blaming people.

Posted by goreng_kaki > 2016-02-27 11:05 | Report Abuse

Revenue almost double but the net profit only raise 600k, where got enough???

Compare with other small competitor within same industry, hil and lcth, geshen have lower net profit in 2015 compare to both of them

Since hil and lcth only have pe below 10, a low net profit geshen deserve pe 12????

If apply pe 9.x, geshen only worth 1.55....lol

Posted by Lulu La > 2016-02-27 11:12 | Report Abuse

Chickenrice..i support u...no matter whoever write whatever...final decision still on your own...dun blame..the only one u can blame is yourself

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-02-27 12:28 | Report Abuse

Idiots don't pay when earn money by following people's free advice.

But keep complaining when they lose money because they claim they are blind, so have to follow blindly.

Posted by GODinvest > 2016-02-29 01:31 | Report Abuse

sell la you , no sell 1 week u just left underwear , how much the price how much the NTA how the announcement eps ? Wat the PE? How the future prospects, gets hen value is how much? You strategy is FA Is right , if you wrong meaning in FA you will lose until left underwear 。you better use TA then can lose little

Posted by DetectChan > 2016-02-29 21:25 | Report Abuse

GODinvest, he sold his Geshen at a loss already. Today he panicked