Posted by ACD888 > 2016-04-09 11:22 | Report Abuse

sounds promising

Posted by Rajuan_Singh > 2016-04-09 11:28 | Report Abuse

Thank you Boss Simon. Looks like as long as Feds cannot confirm and Brexit comes into play, money will be here longer

Posted by kancchai > 2016-04-09 11:31 | Report Abuse

Makes sense but judging from the high equity is that the reason KLCI is going up?

Posted by Charlenechew > 2016-04-09 11:34 | Report Abuse

Thx Simon. Base on your earlier call on oil and RM, i believe you could be right on the coming months again. Good Luck

Posted by Red_Hong_Bao > 2016-04-09 11:42 | Report Abuse

Monday I start buy again.

Posted by Red_Hong_Bao > 2016-04-09 11:43 | Report Abuse

Hong Bao by June??

Posted by Jinggo_Joe > 2016-04-09 14:06 | Report Abuse

Mid year review sure beautiful...

Posted by Pinkfloyd > 2016-04-09 15:49 | Report Abuse

I like the sequence it's written and gives anticipation. Thanks

Posted by Pinkfloyd > 2016-04-09 20:13 | Report Abuse

I will contribute to say OnG rebound maybe on the card

Posted by SamKaw > 2016-04-09 21:10 | Report Abuse

Can write more on this topic?

Posted by SamKaw > 2016-04-09 21:19 | Report Abuse

Mr Simon, I agree w your points but can you comment more on the counter to buy?

Posted by Ven Felix > 2016-04-10 13:22 | Report Abuse

Thx for The Global Direction view sharing here, I'm still cautious on The Nxt BN successor.

Posted by Lolandoarchic > 2016-04-10 18:36 | Report Abuse

Sounds like a bull happening...

Posted by speakup > 2016-04-10 18:38 | Report Abuse

if it is BULL good.
if it is BULL-SHIT? how?

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-10 20:58 | Report Abuse

Some of the Brexit money is already in Asia and Malaysia. The decline of the GBP last year started since Sept 2015 to date at 5.53 against MYR stems from the out flow due to the concern. To be exact 17% decline.

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-11 09:41 | Report Abuse

A quick check at BPAM and MGS on bonds as follow. Having heard this morning on BFM that China has taken up 8% of our bond as they did in a few other country. It is either they have a hand in the restructuring of our debt being buyers of some of the asset (which is a fact) or they trust the Goverment or both. This will be handy if both our debt is reduce and GDP improved would be ideal case

"Malaysia Government Bond 10Y increased to 3.82 percent on Thursday April 7 from 3.81 percent in the previous trading day. Historically, the Malaysia Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 5.35 in April of 2004 and a record low of 2.87 in January of 2009."

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-11 10:43 | Report Abuse

What else do we need?
1. Last year we had outflow of foreign investment totalling RM19.5Billion. if divided by 4Q each Q is RM5Bil. The 1st Q this year reported RM5.5Bil already.
2. Bond market registered RM11.8 in 1st Q (Jan -Mar this year) while the lost of whole of 2015 in bond pull out was RM11.1Bil. We are on a move for bond. this has not factored in the China 8%. Question here is are we selling more asset that China is in a know?
3 The rest as mentioned in the writeup

If someone buys up your debt knowing that the debt restructure will work, knowing that they can buy assets that you dispose to settle debt at a price (lower or higher than market price) but is cheap to the foreign buyer due to the exchange rate. What this means in addition to point 1-3 is the spill over will again be into equity and secondly upon optimise of bond, the money will go to equity.

Risk? Opposition political party spoiling the deal

Posted by bursamaster88 > 2016-04-11 11:36 | Report Abuse

NICE (7139)...can collect now!!. .it is moving upwards for the next wave. Resistance at 0.155 n 0.195!!!!! Collect before too late!!!!

Posted by ACD888 > 2016-04-11 13:08 | Report Abuse

Why Mr. market still not moving?

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-12 08:59 | Report Abuse

Oil is not only stable but gaining ground. This means ringgit will strengthen further. Once it strengthen and if it strengthens to 3.70 many foreign investors will sell then. But between now till 3.70 watch the oil potential to go up. If oil gap to 45 with momentum, expect the heavy buy in between then.

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-13 08:55 | Report Abuse

For those who ask me about export counter when ringgit strengthens -
Answer: You hv to remember export theme is local consumption only. Sector play is also local theme. They are prevalent when the foreign investors are not present. For foreign investors they do not understand our theme play simply because the system they use to filter is base on factual value, potential and past 2 Quarter growth.

For those looking at export stock, my advice is look at the volume and buy rate. If buy rate is very low for the export counter you are looking at but the volume is very high say 2 to 3 times higher than AVERAGE HIGH. The translation is low buy rate from previous day of high buy rate could mean correction however low buy rate from say 50% buy rate from previous day is likely panic selling.

I am more convince of correction if the buy rate is high for few days followed very low buy rate to support the correction theory. 1 day high buy rate followed by correction is very unlikely to be correction. A lot of export stock had 1 day high buy rate on Monday but immediate yesterday the buy rate dropped.

Do you think is correction or panic selling? If you believe like me on the theory above that panic selling ensued due to strengthening of MYR (then also read my comment yesterday at 8.59am)

If what its said is true that yesterday was panic selling then one must look at the volume because if the volume is high, there is a buyer. If you have high panic sellers but not buyer the price will drop significantly because of low volume at each level of buy queue.

So what does it mean if buy rate is low with significant volume transacted (double or triple the AVG HIGH volume)? It means someone is buying. As I have mentioned the export theme is only local to us, for those with panic selling (low buy rate), at higher than AVG HIGH volume, maybe a sign of buy up by foreign investors. So far as shared the foreign investors are taking up in quarter similar amt of investment seen by quarter against the pull out last year.

Hope this explains

Posted by Rajuan_Singh > 2016-04-13 09:16 | Report Abuse

Thank you Boss

Posted by Charlenechew > 2016-04-13 14:15 | Report Abuse

Wah Boss so confident even export stock. can share after first half this morning what you think?

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-14 11:09 | Report Abuse

Yesterday participation in first half and second half was good. This morning the ungraded is at 854. If it moves towards 700 or below like yesterday before 1st trading session, it will be considered good. When you have more participation, the consensus of the KLCI will be accurate and you can trade with more confidence.

As what I hv written as oil approaches USD45 per barrel, the consensus in Malaysia will be expecting 3.70 exchange against USD to be met. Whether met or not, the expectation is likely it will and KLCI market will move in that direction. Foreign investor may look upon the strengthening of MYR to buy now and throw at 3.70 exchange.

From our perspective, it may work to their advantage when we sell now due to weakness in export stock. So look out of this buying by the foreign investor. How? as mentioned earlier high volume of take up at low buy rate. Note: They may not present themselves in the buy queue but the volume will be high.

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-14 11:16 | Report Abuse

If you hv read my earlier write up in Battle Royale, one of the tool to prop confidence is by using the market. Whether it is planned or not by the PM it seemed to hv coincided with the Sarawak election and the whole deal of bond selling and take up by the Chinese was also too convenient to ignore.
My personal take is , the Chinese has been buying key assets in Malaysia and they know the debt can contra or settled with more deals.

Posted by ACD888 > 2016-04-22 09:07 | Report Abuse

Wow Boss Simon, your USD45per barrel upwards and toward RM3.70 buy call really happening. So sell at near 3.70 exchange??

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2016-04-22 09:15 | Report Abuse

the British pound is under pressure from all fronts. Until after the British voted " stay or quit " the anxiety is there. People do not like fiscal or economic uncertainites.

The British economics is not what it used to be. the British to be honest has lost their edge in most manufacturing and technology. They are still good at the education level. without overseas fundings Great Britain is just Britain nothing Great. Scotland is planning to secede from the union. things are not too rosy at his point of time

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-22 09:44 | Report Abuse

ADC888, as you can see many of the fundamentally good stocks are moving already even export stock as I mention earlier when the USD45 /barrel psychological barrier and expectation of forex 3.70 against USD becomes more real and I will sell when my rules are fulfilled

Posted by Rajuan_Singh > 2016-04-22 09:49 | Report Abuse

Boss Simon as usual thanks. All my 3 stocks started to move already. Appreciate your comments

Posted by YauTakTeng88 > 2016-04-22 16:16 | Report Abuse

Sifu Simon hou yeh!!

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-24 22:16 | Report Abuse

How is the global money going to flow between this point till June
If break it down
1. Not many want to trade GBR at this point causing the exchange for the currency to weaken until they are clear of the stance of Brexit. No simple answer as there are up to half a million EU trustees moving in and out of UK causing more damage yearly utilizing taxpayers monies and benefit. Weighing on this monies will continue to flow out. Only 2destination, Asia or US as the Brits are too familiar with the Euro challenges at this point. Not only influx of refugees in Europe causing much concern that supporting human rights and humanitarian will soon kill Europe's economy. If they are still not convince on Paris and Brussels attack a few more terrorist act will definitely convince them. My personal opinion is UK should leave the EU for the reason stated above and the fact that EU has also lost 50% of their trade strength in the few many years earlier.
2. Import to US generally has slowed down as we have read As I wriote before that most if not all forex are referenced to USD. This means when we say example MYR has weaken against the USD what we really mean is USD has been traded more and hence they strengthen and when that's happens MYR will be referenced as weaken. At this point, US has played almost every card they have, include devaluing their currency to strengthen their export to reducing imports to consolidate their standing (basically a correction mode) to deliberating their interest rates hike ...... The latter is perceived as a delay tactic and the idea is to balance the stock market because there are many variable from ECB and Japan's negative interest rate which when coincide together must put US in a controlled environment. Example if US devalues the USD and have a rate hike and similarly ECB and Japan does the same, the export numbers will not happen for US and it will deficit the purpose of doing so
3. The Bill to reveal 9/11 if passed in US may have the Bond market spiraling downwards. The Saudis have large bonds term assets which total USD750B which may be pulled out if US declassify the secrecy. So now we know who is behind 9/11??? :) those money entrusted in bonds or other asset IF pulled out from US again very unlikely will end up in Europe right?
4. Oil's fallen prices last year and to date has taken a large toll on Middle East , Russia and US. How do we know? because the Saudis are now taking loans while Russia is taking on Syria directly and more engage in aggressive stance to compensate for their losses in oil while US is trying to improve their relations with the Saudis to avoid No3. Real?? Yes!!
ISIS is also at its weakest now because of prolonged oil losses.

So now for the question:
1. Once you have read the above, Brexit may seem more straight forward. It is a choice of long term rewards and short term pain if they exit or take the easy way by remaining in a degrading EU economy. My guess is further fueled by Obama's recent advice for UK to remain in EU. This is because it is easier to manage EU as a whole than having to deal with splinter groups. UK made a calculated choice when they avoided joining Eurozone however Eurozone is a subset of EU since 18 member states in Eurozone are part of the 29 member states of EU. UK being out of EU means they are neither part of EU or Europe already. Before if ECB is to Europe and Feds is to US where does that leave UK??

2. US is a failing state in my opinion. Why? Firstly the business model of the world is changing. If it use to be service is to India and manufacturing is to China in the last decade, today the model is all so complex for US. Every body is buying into everyone else's business to spread their egg from being in a single basket. Part of globalization? If it is many like Saudis and China are holding plenty of American eggs. In the business world when you are a customer and also a supplier to the same company, you are automatically a Business Partner. Yesteryears we talk about allies among countries but today (akin to business partner) they are stakeholders and partners. Can US really afford for China or Saudi to fail? Can they afford for UK to exit EU and lose another stakeholder ?

If the above still does not convince you that more money will flow into Asia between now till June, the only other way is status quo which we know will not happen because if money does not move USD will weaken in the way US is not in control

Posted by GorengAyam > 2016-04-24 22:24 | Report Abuse

https://youtu.be/IGVXad7rx4A

Sell in May and go away....

Posted by Red_Hong_Bao > 2016-04-25 10:00 | Report Abuse

I actually made a lot money from your advice hahahahahaha. I follow TA FA sifu but I follow your timing!!!!! Hong Bao! Hong Bao lai liao.... Sold a few following Boss Simon rules....no regrets

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-26 15:11 | Report Abuse

Red_Hong_Bao, good call.

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-27 09:01 | Report Abuse

Some of the things i have shared prior
1. Phenom - Oil weakening (for 1 week) on to > 7% decline with MYR strengthening, and DJIA up trending which happen 2-3 weeks ago. BUY call
2. DJIA Correction - (1.5-2 weeks ago) - SELL
3. Anticipation of USD45/barrel crude oil and MYR3.70 (last week) - BUY
4. Sell following the rules of 3 days, 10-15% on leap, etc - WAIT for more sign

The above situation is why I am doing trading than investment. Moving forward is tricky now that oil is looking at half a leg already passing USD45/per barrel. In our market anticipation moves the transaction. The USD mark is a psychological barrier for MYR strengthening further as mention to 3.7. Because the oil movement will be followed by USD and as a defence to USD the MYR will weaken or strengthen. So in this case, the oil move must be convincing. In my opinion it looks convincing at least for the next 1 week.

Realistically once it passes USD 45 convincingly then all anticipation will move to MYR to strengthen to 3.70 as USD likely to weaken due to above plus the Feds deliberation in the coming days.

Rightfully, MYR should strengthen!

I would not make any move as yet with the reason of the current happenings in Malaysia. Wait for the 1Mdb debacle on default, wait for Sarawak situation to be clearer and wait for Bank Negara Governor to be announced.

WHY?

Because the 1Mdb may determine how the money flows again fr both Malaysia and foreign investor, while Sarawak situation will give indication of Najib's position and the Bank Negara Governor selection may determine the confidence in moving forward for our currency and bigger part whether the OPR rates will stay.
What to look out for?
Look out for news if the candidate is Bank Negara/Zeti's choice or outside her influence. If outside her influence expect reaction from market.

Posted by Rajuan_Singh > 2016-04-27 13:31 | Report Abuse

Some of the stocks look like rebounding.

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-27 15:00 | Report Abuse

Just named Muhammad Ibrahim as New Bank Negara Governor should be good news as he is the Deputy to Zeti and should be a good lineage and in keeping the on going endeavour. So one down and 2 to go.

Posted by Rockford > 2016-04-27 15:06 | Report Abuse

Your news is super fast. Lets see the market react or not

Posted by Rajuan_Singh > 2016-04-27 15:09 | Report Abuse

Thanks Boss

Posted by Rajuan_Singh > 2016-04-27 15:10 | Report Abuse

Looking forward

Posted by Evertraveler > 2016-04-27 15:15 | Report Abuse

SimonShuet, Your articles and comments are very well written. Very detail analysis and useful info. Keep up the good work. Looking forward to seeing more articles from you.

Posted by Rajuan_Singh > 2016-04-27 15:25 | Report Abuse

I guess with Muhammad Ibrahim continuing Zeti's legacy and rightfully succeeding her fr Deputy to Bank Governor will give ease as you mention to the concern of interest rate hike.

Posted by Rajuan_Singh > 2016-04-27 15:26 | Report Abuse

For now kekekeke

Posted by Jeslyn > 2016-04-27 15:40 | Report Abuse

Well written article with bundles of analytical facts and information. Thanks

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-27 15:52 | Report Abuse

Market will not jump the gun as yet but I am sure the market is relieve that the New Governor provides a continuity and is not someone from MOF to ensure the check and balance is maintained

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-27 15:59 | Report Abuse

Feds will keep rate unchanged. 2/3 already. Left 1Mdb. If oil continues it momentum pass USD 45 at this point on left 1Mdb to affect the forex. If 1Mdb pays off (i don't know it its that straight forward after defaulting since Dec 2015) the course towards anticipation of 3.70 will follow.

Posted by Rajuan_Singh > 2016-04-27 16:19 | Report Abuse

Wow market reacting.

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-27 16:23 | Report Abuse

Today 2 out of 3 of the questions I am looking for has been answered but left the most ruthless one - 1Mdb. On its own it doesn't create much problem but defaulting further without a solution will bring in the rating agencies because they don't want to be blame for giving a more positive outlook earlier.

Posted by ACD888 > 2016-04-28 08:15 | Report Abuse

Thank you Sir. Can comment todays outcome?

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-04-28 10:21 | Report Abuse

With no further light shed on 1Mdb, wait for more development.