Posted by Probability > 2016-04-30 01:32 | Report Abuse

what are we supposed to make sense of these results?

1/3 of the year had passed...and we have even very experienced sifus hitting returns of - 23%...

I really need to find out how to make 15% return every year consecutively like the power of compounding people used to say...

wait a minute...I am only expecting 5% above the average Cost of Capital of 10%....remember its 'AVERAGE'.....so hard meh?

may be better we open up some tuition class like CP Teh...

Posted by Probability > 2016-04-30 01:42 | Report Abuse

when market down...everybody has theory for justification...

http://bursadummy.blogspot.se/search?updated-min=2016-01-01T00:00:00%2B08:00&updated-max=2017-01-01T00:00:00%2B08:00&max-results=11

I thought that's when we should really keep posting?
Has the fundamentals of the business changed...
perhaps at least one can write blogs to tell how the Fundamentals have changed for the worst...like they used to write for the better?

Posted by ksng0307 > 2016-04-30 11:44 | Report Abuse

The results tell one thing: i.e you dun have tho be very good in analysing in order to do well in investing. Otherwise, you will see all those share analysts, professionals emerging as winners here. Fortunately, this is not the case, and that is the beauty of this game, everybody has even chance in outperforming each other.So, try to avoid to be the bigger fool.天大地大，还是市场最大，股市里没有专家，只有输家和赢家。

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-30 14:05 | Report Abuse

The salesmen will never tell you about compounding down.


Otb performance is very educational.



His superior results in previous years become top loser because his is a high beta approach.

Posted by cheated > 2016-04-30 14:12 | Report Abuse

If his performance is always very good as he claimed repeatedly like what he did in 2013-15 he must be very rich. Why still want his subscribers to pay RM 960? Only RM 960 is sure money to OTB but not stock market gain.

Posted by stockmanmy > Apr 30, 2016 02:05 PM | Report Abuse

The salesmen will never tell you about compounding down.
Otb performance is very educational.
His superior results in previous years become top loser because his is a high beta approach.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-30 14:40 | Report Abuse

OTB approach is small cap high beta stocks

Didn't work this year.

His formulas did not give him any protection against market downturn....in fact, his formulas focused his risks, concentrated his portfolio risks making his performance worse than random, worse than the Index worse than that of a beginner.


no risk no gain.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-30 15:13 | Report Abuse

ironically, it is his formulas that will make him enjoy the full weight of the decline with no possibility of escape, no possibility for cut loss. No possibility to change his mind. His moat has become his wall. If like OTB you buy shares based on formulas and low PEs, you will never be able to cut loss as his shares become lower and lower PE until disasters strike...the shares go below his SMA 200, by which time, his shares would be down 70%, its game over,

next customer please.....

Posted by fengtzekai > 2016-04-30 15:32 | Report Abuse

In real life, we switch from counter to counter and will not pick a stock and stick with it for a year.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-30 15:43 | Report Abuse

Feng


You will not be switching much if you buy OTB shares which is selected based on 20 formulas and low PE become lower PE until...of course, the results turn around and collapse by which time the share already down 50%. And no point switching.


He call his formula Moats but his moat has become death walls.

Posted by Ven Felix > 2016-04-30 15:47 | Report Abuse

ALL IN ! JHM @@

Posted by Probability > 2016-04-30 15:49 | Report Abuse

fengtzekai,so then...lets admit its about creating some speculation about the stock and being the 'minority smartest' to escape before the 'majority others - dumb ass'.

Its about reading how the crowd thinks and being ahead of them.....

I would like to know who are those had provided good business evaluation information....and the Earnings had performed as per their predictions, we can then judge based on the price later whether or not it reflects the development on the Earnings.

May be we should have the contest for the Accuracy level of the Accumulated Earnings Prediction for the Year 2016 of their stocks instead. Coz you know how market behaves and gives pricing based on sentiments is difficult to predict....

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-30 15:50 | Report Abuse

Proton will close shop soon.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-30 15:56 | Report Abuse

Fang
There are good reasons why universities stress diversification and sifus all hate diversification

Posted by Ven Felix > 2016-04-30 16:00 | Report Abuse

Desa aka stockmanmy ;
your boss has juz bought for big blok wor. Seen u r less imformed .

Posted by Ven Felix > 2016-04-30 16:02 | Report Abuse

Are u not plp your bosses anymore, why still promote like there is non on earth ?
Why twisting facts with your Proton Ta method to slap your bosses JHM ?
WHY ..

Posted by Ven Felix > 2016-04-30 16:03 | Report Abuse

Bad Monket u r , Desa aka stockmanmy .

Posted by Ven Felix > 2016-04-30 16:13 | Report Abuse

JHM'S results improving qtr by qtr , how ? Desa
U ask me to come back to u, poste Jhm results, How ?
Now, i'm here.
Are you Saying Sorry for your lack substances fact before ?
Even now OTB has big blok in JHM, How Desa ?

Posted by Ven Felix > 2016-04-30 16:15 | Report Abuse

Desa aka stockmanmy ,waiting ...for your Sorry.

Posted by Ven Felix > 2016-04-30 16:17 | Report Abuse

Next time be sure of what you are going to say,
if not sure, can consult nicely.ok ?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-30 16:17 | Report Abuse

Proton and electronics are the two sectors to avoid......

Posted by Ven Felix > 2016-04-30 16:19 | Report Abuse

Juz admit it, and say sorry. U should say it to JHM readers.

Posted by Ven Felix > 2016-04-30 16:26 | Report Abuse

Desa aka stockmanmy ;
U dare to challenge, and not dare to accept the outcome ?
Awaiting for your Sorry.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-04-30 19:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-04-30 19:57 | Report Abuse

Posted by Ven Felix > Apr 30, 2016 04:13 PM | Report Abuse

Even now OTB has big blok in JHM, How Desa ?

Ans : This information is not true. I do not own any.
Thank you.

Posted by VenFx > 2016-04-30 20:02 | Report Abuse

OTB sir,
Desa aka stockmanmy always try to act smart
with his siok sendiri concepts

This kind of character, no different with dead fish.
Better leave Bursa ; else will cursed by his own words.

Posted by VenFx > 2016-04-30 20:05 | Report Abuse

It shown in JHM 2015 annual report, Pledged share under nominee name Fong Siling.
p.76.
Pls clarify furthur. Tq

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-04-30 20:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-04-30 20:11 | Report Abuse

Dear VenFx,

I do not own any.
I focus on a few stocks only in 2016. I am more interested to protect my profit and capital.
Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by VenFx > 2016-04-30 20:16 | Report Abuse

It's fine OTB, JHM is a rising star anyway.
It has positioned itself juz rite at the middle of the sweet spot Automotive H.B. Led sector.
I can smell the $$$ that potentially secured from their oversea prospects.
I mil shares far too few comparing to their huge potential of growth.

Posted by VenFx > 2016-04-30 20:18 | Report Abuse

Fine OTB, must be some errors in JHM 2015 annual report.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-04-30 20:19 | Report Abuse

Dear VenFx,

Thank you for your information. I will look into it whether it can pass my stock selection criteria.

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by VenFx > 2016-04-30 20:21 | Report Abuse

OTB sir, u are real gentleman. Thanks for the clarification.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-30 21:00 | Report Abuse

otb

All universities stress the importance of diversification.
All internet sifus hate diversification....just look at your model portfolio....all up and down at the same time...all are small cap stocks with the same characteristics...all sink and swim on currency movements, all just have had a good 2015 and expect them to have another sterling year in 2016

what has jealously got to do with any of that? I did not create the portfolio.

want to see a good diversified portfolio?

try this..............


http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stockman/92112.jsp

or this

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stockman/95698.jsp

jealousy got nothing to do with it.


sifus don't like diversified portfolio....they say it disturbs their performance.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-30 21:13 | Report Abuse

3 kinds of participants

- the directors, substantial shareholders and long term investors
- the portfolio managers
- the traders, which is all the rest

One internet sifu to cover all the Boxes?

You are asking for trouble, not me.

I would not dare.

It takes a special kind of arrogance to think you have the One Key to unlock them all, the One Key to success that internet Sifu can unlock for you.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-30 21:38 | Report Abuse

acknowledging the limits of Man
diversification seek to have a little of every thing
preferably a portfolio of stocks whose attributes are negatively co related

OTB tried to convince you he has found the One Key to stockmarket success based on his 20 formulas.

The two are fundamentally at odds.


No surprise that when it rains....it pours and with no umbrellas, the OTB model portfolio is in the bottom one percentile of portfolios created in i3 made up of people from all walks of life and beginners.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-04-30 22:11 | Report Abuse

Like I said many times before, once u r successful, Desa will attack u. He is driven by jealousy.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-30 22:16 | Report Abuse

for directors, substantial shareholders and long term investors with time horizons spanning decades the most important considerations are strategic issues and quality of management

for portfolio managers the most important considerations are risk management via diversification of risks across industries, regions, business cycles

for traders and all the rest with time horizons measured in days, or weeks or quarters and one or two years the considerations differ from person to person.

PE ratios and especially PE ratios of historical nature and your favorite SMAs are just two of an infinite number of tools people use.

Internet sifus try to convince you he has found the One Key to bind them all.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-30 22:17 | Report Abuse

to expect the Con Con to say any thing logical is like expecting the frogs to talk.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-04-30 22:21 | Report Abuse

Grow up. Spend time to try to elevate yourself instead of keep stepping on others to bring them down to your level. The world is very big. Don't let it be filled with jealousy

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-04-30 22:36 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-04-30 22:41 | Report Abuse

You cannot win all the time in stock market, Warren also lost USD 1 billion in one day. It is important that I know what is the mistake in my selection.

Winning in stock market is a long journey to success, there is no short cut. We need a lot of patience and perseverance to win big. Those want to win big in the shortest time will not make it to be winners in stock market. They will only be the losers in the shortest time.

Thank you.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-01 00:10 | Report Abuse

Otb

You produced the model portfolio

I gave my reasons why your portfolio is third from the bottom.

You conclude therefrom that I am not a CPA......

Just confirmation your arrogance knows no limit.

After all it already takes a person of certain arrogance like you to think he already found the One Key to success in the stock market for all the 3 kinds of participants in the stock market.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-05-01 00:40 | Report Abuse

Any good strategy I learned from I3 here, I will continue to improve it.

I will do my back testing to ensure the strategy works. If the strategy will not work, I will throw them away. I am a hard working person, I will keep on work hard to improve my knowledge.

Once I am comfortable with a particular trading/investing strategy, remain faithful to it, and it will reward me for my loyalty in the long run.

You can say what you like, they will not convince me unless you can convince me with facts and figures. Talking and writing a few sentence will not convince me.

A low PER of < 10, a growth of > 10% per year, Margin of safety > 30%, an up trending stock, break new high price and the sector is bullish. Any stock passed these selection criteria cannot be far wrong.
The latest quarter result is a loss, cut the stock. No growth for next 2 quarter results, cut the stock. Break below 200 days SMA, cut loss.

If a person has this type of stock selection criteria and discipline to follow these rules rigidly, please tell me how far this person can be wrong.

Winning in stock market is a long journey to success, there is no short cut. We need a lot of patience and perseverance to win big. Those want to win big in the shortest time will not make it to be winners in stock market. They will only be the losers in the shortest time.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-01 02:17 | Report Abuse

well kiteman

use whatever pleases you.
but just to remind you that success in the stock market is not like a maths problem to be solved.
It is not even an accounting problem to be solved with 20 accounting ratios...and if like in B, you only buy shares breaking new highs, I can only say good luck to you.

============================


thank you OTB, I will use them as a guide...

U - Up trending stock only. The price of the stock must be above 200 days SMA.
B - The price must break major resistance preferably break new high.
S - Sector of the Index must also be higher than 200 days SMA.
G - The growth of EPS or EBIT must be > 10% per year
M - Margin of safety > 30%.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-01 02:23 | Report Abuse

well....facts and figures tell no lies.
third from bottom after 4 months, how many customers can tolerate that kind of performance?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-01 04:00 | Report Abuse

In my time in i3, I noticed lots of people talk about moats as if moats come from some magical accounting ratios or PE or cash in bank.
and what is that 30% margin of safety stuffs?

If there is 30% margin of safety! how come portfolio loss is > 20% over 4 months.

It all boils down to deception, self deception in this case.

Mesmerized by 20 formulas, there is no more room for flexibilities, for judgements, for diversifications........since diversification must of necessity come from acknowledgement of uncertainties.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-05-01 08:16 | Report Abuse

Diversification ? U bought one full basket of export stocks at beginning of year, remember ? You said "No stock investible in malaysia except for export stocks", remember ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-05-01 08:27 | Report Abuse

Diversification ? Few months ago you sang praises and flattered Tycoon for NON diversification. You Poh lan pah "tycoon is entrepreneur. They buy with conviction. They sai Lang with margin to win big". And now here you are preaching diversification to OTB ? What nonsense are you talking ? You are nothing but a snake with forked tounge

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-05-01 08:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-05-01 09:02 | Report Abuse

Dear readers,

I acknowledged that I selected 3 wrong stocks which are not good, hence need to cut loss. They are "Genetec, Johotin-WA and Tecguan".

I also acknowledged that my selection for "2016 stock pick competition" is not good due to market sentiment changed.
Gadang, Gkent, KESM, WTK and Pohuat-WB are still good selections, you need to be patience to wait until year end.

Those readers follow my stock pick to buy, I say "thousand apologies" to you. No one wants to be a loser including me.

Thank you.
Ooi