I thought that's when we should really keep posting? Has the fundamentals of the business changed... perhaps at least one can write blogs to tell how the Fundamentals have changed for the worst...like they used to write for the better?
The results tell one thing: i.e you dun have tho be very good in analysing in order to do well in investing. Otherwise, you will see all those share analysts, professionals emerging as winners here. Fortunately, this is not the case, and that is the beauty of this game, everybody has even chance in outperforming each other.So, try to avoid to be the bigger fool.天大地大,还是市场最大,股市里没有专家,只有输家和赢家。
If his performance is always very good as he claimed repeatedly like what he did in 2013-15 he must be very rich. Why still want his subscribers to pay RM 960? Only RM 960 is sure money to OTB but not stock market gain.
The salesmen will never tell you about compounding down. Otb performance is very educational. His superior results in previous years become top loser because his is a high beta approach.
His formulas did not give him any protection against market downturn....in fact, his formulas focused his risks, concentrated his portfolio risks making his performance worse than random, worse than the Index worse than that of a beginner.
ironically, it is his formulas that will make him enjoy the full weight of the decline with no possibility of escape, no possibility for cut loss. No possibility to change his mind. His moat has become his wall. If like OTB you buy shares based on formulas and low PEs, you will never be able to cut loss as his shares become lower and lower PE until disasters strike...the shares go below his SMA 200, by which time, his shares would be down 70%, its game over,
You will not be switching much if you buy OTB shares which is selected based on 20 formulas and low PE become lower PE until...of course, the results turn around and collapse by which time the share already down 50%. And no point switching.
He call his formula Moats but his moat has become death walls.
fengtzekai,so then...lets admit its about creating some speculation about the stock and being the 'minority smartest' to escape before the 'majority others - dumb ass'.
Its about reading how the crowd thinks and being ahead of them.....
I would like to know who are those had provided good business evaluation information....and the Earnings had performed as per their predictions, we can then judge based on the price later whether or not it reflects the development on the Earnings.
May be we should have the contest for the Accuracy level of the Accumulated Earnings Prediction for the Year 2016 of their stocks instead. Coz you know how market behaves and gives pricing based on sentiments is difficult to predict....
Are u not plp your bosses anymore, why still promote like there is non on earth ? Why twisting facts with your Proton Ta method to slap your bosses JHM ? WHY ..
JHM'S results improving qtr by qtr , how ? Desa U ask me to come back to u, poste Jhm results, How ? Now, i'm here. Are you Saying Sorry for your lack substances fact before ? Even now OTB has big blok in JHM, How Desa ?
It's fine OTB, JHM is a rising star anyway. It has positioned itself juz rite at the middle of the sweet spot Automotive H.B. Led sector. I can smell the $$$ that potentially secured from their oversea prospects. I mil shares far too few comparing to their huge potential of growth.
All universities stress the importance of diversification. All internet sifus hate diversification....just look at your model portfolio....all up and down at the same time...all are small cap stocks with the same characteristics...all sink and swim on currency movements, all just have had a good 2015 and expect them to have another sterling year in 2016
what has jealously got to do with any of that? I did not create the portfolio.
acknowledging the limits of Man diversification seek to have a little of every thing preferably a portfolio of stocks whose attributes are negatively co related
OTB tried to convince you he has found the One Key to stockmarket success based on his 20 formulas.
The two are fundamentally at odds.
No surprise that when it rains....it pours and with no umbrellas, the OTB model portfolio is in the bottom one percentile of portfolios created in i3 made up of people from all walks of life and beginners.
for directors, substantial shareholders and long term investors with time horizons spanning decades the most important considerations are strategic issues and quality of management
for portfolio managers the most important considerations are risk management via diversification of risks across industries, regions, business cycles
for traders and all the rest with time horizons measured in days, or weeks or quarters and one or two years the considerations differ from person to person.
PE ratios and especially PE ratios of historical nature and your favorite SMAs are just two of an infinite number of tools people use.
Internet sifus try to convince you he has found the One Key to bind them all.
Grow up. Spend time to try to elevate yourself instead of keep stepping on others to bring them down to your level. The world is very big. Don't let it be filled with jealousy
You cannot win all the time in stock market, Warren also lost USD 1 billion in one day. It is important that I know what is the mistake in my selection.
Winning in stock market is a long journey to success, there is no short cut. We need a lot of patience and perseverance to win big. Those want to win big in the shortest time will not make it to be winners in stock market. They will only be the losers in the shortest time.
I gave my reasons why your portfolio is third from the bottom.
You conclude therefrom that I am not a CPA......
Just confirmation your arrogance knows no limit.
After all it already takes a person of certain arrogance like you to think he already found the One Key to success in the stock market for all the 3 kinds of participants in the stock market.
Any good strategy I learned from I3 here, I will continue to improve it.
I will do my back testing to ensure the strategy works. If the strategy will not work, I will throw them away. I am a hard working person, I will keep on work hard to improve my knowledge.
Once I am comfortable with a particular trading/investing strategy, remain faithful to it, and it will reward me for my loyalty in the long run.
You can say what you like, they will not convince me unless you can convince me with facts and figures. Talking and writing a few sentence will not convince me.
A low PER of < 10, a growth of > 10% per year, Margin of safety > 30%, an up trending stock, break new high price and the sector is bullish. Any stock passed these selection criteria cannot be far wrong. The latest quarter result is a loss, cut the stock. No growth for next 2 quarter results, cut the stock. Break below 200 days SMA, cut loss.
If a person has this type of stock selection criteria and discipline to follow these rules rigidly, please tell me how far this person can be wrong.
Winning in stock market is a long journey to success, there is no short cut. We need a lot of patience and perseverance to win big. Those want to win big in the shortest time will not make it to be winners in stock market. They will only be the losers in the shortest time.
use whatever pleases you. but just to remind you that success in the stock market is not like a maths problem to be solved. It is not even an accounting problem to be solved with 20 accounting ratios...and if like in B, you only buy shares breaking new highs, I can only say good luck to you.
============================
thank you OTB, I will use them as a guide...
U - Up trending stock only. The price of the stock must be above 200 days SMA. B - The price must break major resistance preferably break new high. S - Sector of the Index must also be higher than 200 days SMA. G - The growth of EPS or EBIT must be > 10% per year M - Margin of safety > 30%.
In my time in i3, I noticed lots of people talk about moats as if moats come from some magical accounting ratios or PE or cash in bank. and what is that 30% margin of safety stuffs?
If there is 30% margin of safety! how come portfolio loss is > 20% over 4 months.
It all boils down to deception, self deception in this case.
Mesmerized by 20 formulas, there is no more room for flexibilities, for judgements, for diversifications........since diversification must of necessity come from acknowledgement of uncertainties.
Diversification ? U bought one full basket of export stocks at beginning of year, remember ? You said "No stock investible in malaysia except for export stocks", remember ?
Diversification ? Few months ago you sang praises and flattered Tycoon for NON diversification. You Poh lan pah "tycoon is entrepreneur. They buy with conviction. They sai Lang with margin to win big". And now here you are preaching diversification to OTB ? What nonsense are you talking ? You are nothing but a snake with forked tounge
I acknowledged that I selected 3 wrong stocks which are not good, hence need to cut loss. They are "Genetec, Johotin-WA and Tecguan".
I also acknowledged that my selection for "2016 stock pick competition" is not good due to market sentiment changed. Gadang, Gkent, KESM, WTK and Pohuat-WB are still good selections, you need to be patience to wait until year end.
Those readers follow my stock pick to buy, I say "thousand apologies" to you. No one wants to be a loser including me.
Thank you. Ooi
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Probability
14,466 posts
Posted by Probability > 2016-04-30 01:32 | Report Abuse
what are we supposed to make sense of these results?
1/3 of the year had passed...and we have even very experienced sifus hitting returns of - 23%...
I really need to find out how to make 15% return every year consecutively like the power of compounding people used to say...
wait a minute...I am only expecting 5% above the average Cost of Capital of 10%....remember its 'AVERAGE'.....so hard meh?
may be better we open up some tuition class like CP Teh...