Fantastic! Thanks for this detailed insights. Not many will understand what drives Genting'share price due to its many businesses. But this analysis made it much easier to understand.
Tom 274, before you ask me which planet I am from, you should do your homework first. At least, I felt obliged to copy and paste the link for you to check it out. Now, find it yourself. This piece of information is available officially.
Phase 3 clinical trials are currently underway with TauRx’s second-generation tau aggregation inhibitor, LMTX®. The Phase 3 programme comprises two clinical trials in Alzheimer’s disease and a further trial in the neurodegenerative orphan indication behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia.
The trials are fully recruited and results are expected in Q3 2016.
This is a binary event and only one of the catalyst for the stock. Investors should take into consideration other catalysts when reviewing the company.
We are also keeping an eye on the upcoming Alzheimer’s Association International Conference in Toronto. TauRx, which is working on a potential line of treatment to slow the progress of Alzheimer’s disease. Unlike most previously researched Alzheimer’s treatments which focussed on Amyloid beta (Aβ) plaques, Dr Claude Wischik-led TauRx is focussing on Tau-proteins in the brain in his research for a possible cure. The mid-stage trials for TauRx showed cognitive benefits to patients taking the drug for 24 and 50 weeks, although with some dosage-related inconsistencies, which TauRx has tried to fix in the phase-3 trials. TauRx researchers Dr Wischik and Dr Serge Gauthier are registered to present on the phase 3 trial updates for two separate disease variants – 1) mild to moderate Alzheimers’ disease and 2) behavioural variant Frontotemporal Dementia (bvFTD) respectively.
Worth a bet – up TP to MYR11.10, Upgrade to BUY 21%-owned TauRX will reveal results of two out of its three Phase III trial studies very soon. We understand that there has been some success, notably with frontotemporal dementia. We leave our earnings estimates unchanged but remove the 20% discount to our GENT SOP/sh valuation to lift our TP to MYR11.10 from MYR8.90 to reflect the potential monetisation of TauRX. Consequently, we upgrade GENT to BUY from HOLD. Downside risk also appears limited at current valuations. TauRX to reveal results of 2 of 3 Phase III studies Channel checks indicate that 21%-owned TauRX will reveal results of two out of its three Phase III trial studies during the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference in Toronto, Canada on 27 Jul 2016. We understand that TauRX will reveal results of its TRx-237-015 (mild to moderate Alzheimer’s) and TRx-237-007 (frontotemporal dementia) studies. Please refer to Fig. 1 for details. We understand that results of the TRx-237-005 (mild Alzheimer’s) study will only be revealed in 4Q16. Anecdotes suggest some success in the 2 studies While we do not know exactly how effective LMTX (the drug subjected to the Phase III trials) was, in improving the cognitive function of patients, we understand that TauRX’s participation in the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference is a positive indication of the results. Our perusal of online Alzheimer’s forums also indicate that LMTX has had some success in improving the cognitive function of patients, most notably with frontotemporal dementia. One step closer to monetisation? If TRx-237-005 is successful, the next step is for LMTX to obtain approval from the US Food & Drug Administration. Despite reports of a potential listing at USD15b valuation (link), we gather that a trade sale of LMTX is more likely as a listing requires a profit track record. If LMTX were sold at USD15b, we estimate that it will add ~MYR2.55/sh to our GENT TP ([USD15b valuation X 20.7% shareholding – USD120m investment – 20% holding company discount]/3,750m shares X MYR4:USD1 exchange rate).
Tan kong han bet is rather small if he knew the result. Nope i dont think he got insider news, his education background doesnt supprt that nor he directly involve in the trial. His position in taurx the most is just attend meeting twice yearly and earn few hundred thousand dollar as director...that all. Every invested company have the rights to place their ppl in the company, what about temasek or dundee ppl? Any action?
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Posted by fangyew > 2016-07-18 08:41 | Report Abuse
thank you