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CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
sosfinance
1,305 posts
Posted by sosfinance > 2016-09-28 11:08 | Report Abuse
USD, Euro, Sterling, Yen. Which one do we choose, between now and next 1-3 years? And why?
(BI, Bloomberg interviewer, GS Gary Shilling)
BI: General View on Economy
GS: Slow Growth going forward (Globalisation is working off the excesses), winter of discontent. People will push of fiscal stimulus when monetary policy is not effective.
BI: Is big fiscal stimulus coming?
GS: Infra or Military? We don't know until the new president is elected.
BI: Changes in market this day, liquidity is down, how much concern you?
GS: It does effect the price of assets. And spill over the economy (no longer that much). Expansion since 2009, we have 2 worlds, one the financial world (effected by central banks) and the Goods and Services (going through the age of deleveraging), there is a major DIVERGENCE. Purchasing power drop, and they don't own much stocks (not much effect to them).
BI: Into Cash GS?
GS: 50% into Cash. If stagnant, we need a big pile of cash. US is looking at BOJ and EU to experiment with ZIRP, US is unlikely going into them.
BI: Is economy a physic? Formula still working?
GS: It doesn't work temporary. Speed up by tech. Manufacturing from EU & USA to China and EM, cause polarisation.
BI: Employment issue, any solution.
GS: Is a transition period. Not much policy can do much. example, auto, over paid sector.
BI: Gold
GS: I never understand Gold. I am neutral. Deflation - Age of Deleveraging. 1998 wrote a book and 2010 another.
BI: How to explain to your kid on Deflation?