I hope that everyone can keep their comments here civilised. don't simply accuse companies of fake contracts or con counter unless you can show evidence. if it's just your suspicion, please keep it to yourself. facts will prevail, so just stick to facts will do. thanks..
jay, you are assessing to the current instant of vivo of which it maybe true to the certain extent of the current situation but future prospect was not in the picture, thus there might not be 100 percent accurate in term of growth factor in vivo. anyhow well done. keep it up.
smartly, every company also can have future prospects; so is not really a good indicator in general for any counter. For Jay, he emphasized more on CONFIRMED orderbook. LOA has time limit and/or Vivocom may not successfully get the projects. In a nutshell; if comparing company A, B, and C, than compare with reliable indicators such as CONFIRMED orderbook only for all A, B, and C company. Unless if you said you have crystal ball to see A, but no crystal ball for B and C company, than I rest my case.
of course everyone can have different approach. some prefer companies which they think have good prospects which market cannot accurately capture now. such approach usually carries high risk high return
so we can assume that the projection based on Jay tabulation is until 3Q2015 and didn't take into any further announced projects?...............so the fair value of 0.16s or whatsoever is valid until 3Q2015?
So this is half baked story and projection?..............if in the world of investment and you relied on half baked stories and projections................you're dead meat.
don't waste my effort in putting up the lists. even after nicely put in table the date of announcement also can miss then you can blame no one but yourself...
Dont mis lead people la, this is the one active stock in Bursa and i3!!! and this counter is for speculator only!!! DOnt stupid until believe this counter can fly xD
YOu rather watch Opensys then this stupid VIVO xD
Whoever watch something related with VIVO will get greatest explore, and gain viewed!!!! Please do something contribute, dont simple want to gain viewed !!!! Thank you xD
Who buy who die and just wasting time, all people already in and out this counter. My suggestion is to in some potential market rather than this Penny stock.
Dont waste your time and effort to wait,,,, then lose money and time in the end of the day.
most of the HOAs have expired, so I think it's better to look forward to other new contracts. the fair price will only last for 2016, which is coming to an end. 2017 onwards are not secured yet. they need to keep winning contracts, if not the profit will start to drop from next year. if market price is close to fair price that means there's no margin of safety. many things can go wrong for any company, not getting new revenue, delay in projects, margin compression etc. which is why it's best to avoid company with no margin of safety
Mr Jay, I think you make a big mistake. Please validate the HOA direct with Vivocom official with a simple call. I can very confident my list of order books is accurate and stood at approximately rm3bil up to today. Maybe u are not a shareholders and you don't even have a courage to do so. Vivocom as project delivery partner with crcc is still waiting award for crcc on Gemas Johor double railway and other new project.
@CKNYAM the one who misleads trying to accuse others or misleading I have noticed that you have been trolling a lot of pages in this forum hard-selling vivo based on your "orderbook" so if you are butt-hurt by the facts presented, it's your problem.
1. Please understand what is orderbook. Orderbook is CONFIRMED orders with contractual obligations if one party backs out. When your list has HOA, automatically your RM3bil figures has no credibility
2. Read the HOAs, it's not that long. Like what I highlighted in the article, most of them have deadlines, if deadline has passed, no announcement of contract and no announcement of extension, what do you expect? If it's still on, then Vivo is in violation of listing requirements for not making timely announcement
Let me dumb it down for the likes of you: If a company wants to hire you and say let's discuss our terms and by end of the month, we shall finalise and sign an employment contract. If not, you are not obligated to work and I am not obligated to pay you. After end of the month, no contract was offered. Are you hired? Will you report to work?
3. Yes I'm not a shareholder and I don't bother to call them. Why? From my experience dealing with corporate figures, many people can say many things. But when you ask them to commit in writing, they will change tune or chicken out.
Why don't you request your company to commit themselves in the next QR to state what is their orderbook? Not orderbook+HOA, JUST orderbook.
4. CRCC links have been explained in the article. If you choose to believe that CRCC will subcontract to Vivo to sub-sub-contract, that's your own choice.
Bottom line, - If you can't even tell contract from HOA, or orderbook from tenderbook, you are not even qualified to talk about this stock - It's one thing to plead ignorance when you troll i3 with your "orderbook" but if by now you can already tell the difference, you still continue to troll the forum with the same lousy list, then your intentions are very clear - Like I mentioned in my last article on MBSB, if you want to argue based on technical charts, rumours etc. go ahead. If you want to challenge my facts or arguments, please show your side of facts and arguments. Don't go whining "you are wrong, I'm right" like kindergarten kids
To other readers, if you notice @CKNYAM trolling other pages again to promote Vivo, feel free to post my comment here or even links to this article. Let the readers decide and prevent people from falling into traps set by irresponsible characters posting inaccurate facts
Its good sharing by everyone here, my leason is trust myself not even what the big bank analysis said. I think value sharing and discusion here is the purpose, blindly follow will just risking my own hard earn money.
made an error previously. fully diluted shares should be more than 4b, so diluted EPS revised down. for 2016 I also adjusted margins to be higher than 15% as first half margins were relatively high. all in, the analysis shows that vivo's FV shd b even lower than previously estimated
Vivo comrades you don't know have to follow Vivo haters here. What they said here not true. At least recent slide not due to Vivo directors selling unlike some hot counter like Ekovest, etc.
it's sad that even after facts are laid bare in front of you, still in denial. wake up, none of Vivo directors own any shares except Anne, who has also ceased to be substantial shareholder since Sept, so she can now sell quietly without disclosing. Vivo is a company which its own directors also don't want to hold shares
You didn't include the project in Bandar Tasik Amanjaya worth RM758mil (four phases with each phase has a contract value of RM189.5mil, duation 36 months, and the phases may run concurrently). It's a confirmed contract.
Speaking of diluted eps, obviously people who are holding the warrants won't exercise all their warrants immediately because by doing so they will suffer a loss. The maturity date of Vivocom's warrant:
if you bother reading earlier comments, i already mentioned the RM190m spread over 3 years will add about 0.2c eps annually. in that case, 2017 eps will be around 1.1-1.2c
just look around all the property projects, every developer are being cautious now. do you really think they will launch more than 1 phase concurrently in this kind of market? why would the developer risk holding inventories by launching multiple phases together? perak housing market is not outperforming the other states, just because it mentioned it may be launched concurrently doesn't mean it will. it's more likely they won't unless there's unusually high demand in perak
on diluted eps, there's only 2 scenarios, one is they expire worthless or warrant holders may covert before expiry to enjoy the upside or salvage whatever value left. either way it will cap the upside of the stock. just imagine you are owner of a biz, you think it's worth x amount but someone else has the option to take a % from you, do you think when you calculate your net worth you can conveniently ignore the option? especially when the option will take almost 25% of your biz. only if the option has indeed expired, then you can breath easily
another troubling thing I didn't highlight in this article previously is that none of the directors hold any shares in this company (Anne has ceased to be substantial shareholder, actual % unknown now)
when the company keep on doing placement, bonus issues etc. and has such a huge share base (>3 billion), you wonder why none of the directors bother taking the opportunity to get a piece of the pie? especially when price has corrected over quite some time
it shouldn't be a major factor in valuing the company but is a point worth considering
When director hold shares in company and sell off their share for profits, investor will comment director has no confidents and also unload his share. When director not holding any share for to avoid conflict on interest, you said they are manipulator. A coin with two side of side. Bunch of bull shits.
it's called alignment of interest, it's the same reasoning why companies give ESOS to retain employees. imagine your active biz partner doesn't want to hold shares, don't you feel a bit concerned?
unless Vivo surprises in terms of new contract wins, if not it looks like the party's over. price overshot fundamentals, so correction is just normal
You still need to list the Bandar Tasik Amanjaya project as a confirmed contract for not misleading the readers.
In fact the affordable houses are still in high demand despite recent property slowdown.
I wouldn't say we shouldn't worry about the diluted eps forever but just it's not a matter for at least 1 year from now, and you know many things can happen in one year. That is just for WB that will be mature on 08 Sep 2018. The maturity date of WC and WD are in 2020.
I think you just illustrated an extreme worst circumstances. I don't think the price has overshot its fundamentals, unless you want a lot of margin of safely like ICAP fund manager Tan Teng Boo. I would say your article is just for reference. Everyone should do their own works.
Previously I didn't include it because it lacks details so you don't know if the developer are going ahead with it.
It's not just demand but financing, just look at loan application and loan approval rates for residential houses you will see the grim picture. And affordable segment are those that are most hard pressed in financing
You can't dismiss something just because it is not happening yet. It is there hanging over your head, someone will come for your company if it does well
I haven't even got to the extreme worst. Look at Q3, revenue slowed down considerably. Worst case would be most of their orderbooks are stalled (as property developers struggle to sell), revenue delays and margins contract to normal industry rate like 12%. that's the worst
But of course you should do your own work. If you still want to invest that's your own money
Period of job award to complete range 24 to 36 months. Vivocom as subcontractors are not bothering how much developer has sales all their units or not. Vivocom has to make sure the project is not delay and Bill according to projects complete percentage . So don't add that slow sales risk into Vivocom. They complete how much the project and they claims the revenue.
Revenue q3 drop has been explained in the report that different cycle billing. Maybe q4 will pick up back the suppose revenue in q3. But they still make better revenue and profits on last 4 quarter comparing previous result. Don't write until Vivocom is a pn17 or engage with a lot wind up petition company
CKNYAM, this will be the last time I respond to careless comments from you. you can't even read my comments correctly, it's this kind of attitude that lead you to take HOAs etc. as part of orderbook and unshamefully spam the whole forum
i already mentioned before they don't have direct sales risk in the article. what I'm saying is they are still indirectly exposed to developer's sales risk and the overall property industry. if your customer having difficulties to sell the houses and ask you yo delay the construction, would you still go ahead and construct?
q3 may or may not be a blip, especially if you exclude sales from other segment, construction plummeted a lot. but I didn't change my forecast, did I? I said that would be the extreme worst case, which I haven't assumed
just because I said it's not worth this price doesn't make it a PN17. I guess in your small mind, all stocks with very low price are troubled company.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
CKNYAM
1,470 posts
Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-10-28 00:04 | Report Abuse
Anyway thanks Jay