Posted by greatful > 2016-10-27 19:54 | Report Abuse

agreed.

Posted by kingcobra > 2016-10-27 20:58 | Report Abuse

thanks for those interesting info!

Posted by tkp1 > 2016-10-27 21:30 | Report Abuse

good work Jay.

Posted by Ikaztahkik > 2016-10-27 21:39 | Report Abuse

omg...

Posted by yktay1 > 2016-10-27 21:43 | Report Abuse

all in

Posted by hpcp > 2016-10-27 21:50 | Report Abuse

agree

Posted by vertwj > 2016-10-27 21:50 | Report Abuse

wow, great analysis

Posted by danielng > 2016-10-27 22:05 | Report Abuse

good analysis

Posted by martinbartesque > 2016-10-27 22:14 | Report Abuse

The revenue and sales projection will be more complete if it can consider also the awarded projects between Q4 2015 and Q2 2016. Otherwise, this analysis is only updated until Q3 2015 conditions.

Posted by martinbartesque > 2016-10-27 22:15 | Report Abuse

Jay, thanks for your hard work. Appreciated.

Posted by kevin008 > 2016-10-27 22:22 | Report Abuse

U miss out one ipoh project 758m la

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-10-27 22:28 | Report Abuse

Total Value Date Receive LOA Date Commerce Date Completion Durations Remarks
1 Pavilion Hilltop, Mont Kiara fr CRCC 34,762,000.00 11/12/15 1/12/16 7/12/18 18 months
2 Rumah Selangorku Bdr Ulu Klang fr CRCC 116,400,000.00 12/8/15 1/18/16 7/1/17 18 months
3 1 Gateway Klang, Selangor fr CRCC 195,525,000.00 11/12/15 1/12/16 12/1/18 3 years
4 Neata Aluminium old orderbook as September 2016 351,753,000.00 11/12/15
Kemensah height (82.4mil),tamarind square(10.3mil),lumi tropicana (37.7mil), KL Gateway (15.4), Eclipse Residence (15mil)
5 Teras Millenium to Instacom for Telco Hub sites 29,000,000.00 11/12/15 1/12/16 8/12/16 7 months
6 Jointly Develop Kharisma Port Indonesia 1/15/16 No agreement sign
7 Desa Tasik Project fr Coneff Corp (2 block Commercial) 240,418,000.00 1/20/16 3/8/16 12/8/19 45 months
8 Desa Tasik Project fr Coneff Corp (24 storeys Condo ) 230,000,000.00 1/26/16
HOA status 9. PBT Engineering for Third Avenue Cyberjaya to Neata 22,500,000.00 4/4/16 4/4/16 9/4/17 17 months
10 V-Development fr Gated Housing Bdr Ulu Klang 15,000,000.00 4/4/16 7/1/16 2/1/18 18 months
11 Green Venture Chepor Hulu Kinta Project 90,000,000.00 4/26/16 HOA status
12 De Facto Wilayah Sultan Azlan Shah Hulu Kinta Project 160,000,000.00 5/5/16 HOA status
13 Goldenhill Accenture Genting Sempah pahang project 46,000,000.00 5/20/16 7/20/16 7/20/18 24 months
14 Kiara5 Development Kg Kayu Ara Sg buloh 25,000,000.00 6/23/16 8/23/16 2/23/18 18 months
15 Lim Hoo Seng Construction Lorong stonor project to Neata 12,800,000.00 6/23/16 6/30/16 5/1/19 35 months
16 Seni perspek Bandar tasik Amanjaya Daerah kinta 756,000,000.00 8/4/16 JCA status
17 Green Venture Wilayah Chepor Project 18storeys Apartment 100,000,000.00 8/19/16 24 months
18 Dazamega Mukim Hulu Kinta Project 600,000,000.00 9/1/16 48 months
Total Project Pipeline that annouced in BursaMalaysia 3,025,158,000.00. HOA status

Posted by Vivo > 2016-10-27 22:40 | Report Abuse

Who is Jay? Pls read blog below.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/purelysharing/102783.jsp

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-27 22:44 | Report Abuse

the 756m project is in Kinta. it was no.6 the JCA contract. I did not add it under the orderbook because it seems less certain to me. anyway, if you insists on including, 4 phases each phase RM189m over 36 months. eps will increase by 0.2c. if added to 2016 eps then fair value will be close to the current market price 18c

Posted by Vivo > 2016-10-27 22:45 | Report Abuse

Jay can say anything but latest QR remain best way to judge not only Vivo but also all his stocks.

Posted by martinbartesque > Oct 27, 2016 10:14 PM | Report Abuse
The revenue and sales projection will be more complete if it can consider also the awarded projects between Q4 2015 and Q2 2016. Otherwise, this analysis is only updated until Q3 2015 conditions.

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-27 22:48 | Report Abuse

just to clarify, I am forecasting merely based on secured contracts and doesn't include future potential job win because I don't want to simply guess in this soft property market. i just pointed out, to support its revenue and profit, how much new contract would Vivicom NEED to secure annually. and even by sustaining at this level valuation is not compelling

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-27 22:52 | Report Abuse

it is still a potential beneficiary under government affordable housing initiative but it seems a bit more niche in Perak, which could be limiting. overall like I highlighted a year ago, the company has good fundamentals but valuations are not very attractive

Posted by Vivo > 2016-10-27 22:54 | Report Abuse

If read Jay blog about Triplc he said final TP is RM 12 or minimum 3.5. Do he forecast EPS drop from 25.5 sen to only 2.34 sen released today?
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/purelysharing/102783.jsp
http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?type=A&value=T&securityCode=5622

Posted by kevin008 > 2016-10-27 22:58 | Report Abuse

Wah 756m still less? Dun milead ppl la
By the way the boss already said another 1.3b will get by this year just waot and see loh

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-27 22:59 | Report Abuse

CKNYAM please don't blindly follow analysts. do you realise how many of the HOA has lapsed?

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-27 23:06 | Report Abuse

Vivo if you follow Triplc closely, you should realise that Triplc is now a concession biz as new construction contract haven't started. last quarter 25.5 sen was one off contract variation. if you read part 3 of my article and my comments you will know that I expected that

Posted by kevin008 > 2016-10-27 23:06 | Report Abuse

After M&A got ard 197m not yet completed

Posted by Alpha Trader > 2016-10-27 23:08 | Report Abuse

vivo's contract are all fake, you see the director's cxck face you know

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-27 23:11 | Report Abuse

for Triplc, UiTM owes them RM42m a year for another 18 years. 18 x RM42m = RM756m. Net debt currently around RM300m plus a piece of land worth at least RM100m. Simple calculation already gives you more than RM500m. This haven't include the new RM600m Phase 3 contract. Phase 2 contract value ~RM250m, UiTM pays RM42m x 20 years, this round RM600m pay how much? I wouldn't be surprised if the payment could come close to RM2bn, albeit over a long period and new debts will need to be taken on

Posted by kevin008 > 2016-10-27 23:11 | Report Abuse

Dun simply talk here la..dare to email or publish in newspaper said vivo's contract are all fake...
U all dun buy any vivo share n come here to mislead ppl
Wat intention? Wan to collect lower?

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-27 23:14 | Report Abuse

kevin008 RM756m is just face value. it is not running at the same time. each phase is RM189 over 36 months. the impact on eps is so minimal mainly because of Vivocom's extremely large share base of >3bn

Posted by kevin008 > 2016-10-27 23:14 | Report Abuse

The Board of Director of Vivocom ("Board') is pleased to announce that its subsidiary company, Vivocom Enterprise Sdn Bhd (“VESB”), had on 30 May 2016 signed a letter of intent to cooperate (“LOI”) issued by Zhonghe Huaxing Development (M) Sdn Bhd ("Zhonghe Huaxing”) for the purposes of cooperating and collaborating on property development, construction, project management and other related activities in connection with property development and construction projects (“Proposed Cooperation”).

Posted by kevin008 > 2016-10-27 23:16 | Report Abuse

Reference is made to the announcement of the Company dated 15 January 2016 in relation to the proposed collaboration to jointly develop Kharisma port and integrated industrial and commercial development on the parcel of land held under HGU30, HGU 39 and HGU40 at JL. Suak Kandis, Desa Sakaen, Kecamatan Kumpeh Ulu, Desa Pudak, Desa Kemingking Dalam, Teluk Jambu, Kecamatan Marosebo, Jambi Province, Indonesia measuring approximately 2,155.52 hectare (“Proposed Collaboration”) through the consortium of Vivocom Enterprise Sdn Bhd (“VESB”), Pt. Kharisma Kemingking and Instacom Group Berhad (“Instacom”) (“The Parties”)

Posted by kevin008 > 2016-10-27 23:18 | Report Abuse

All of this will create value for vivocom in future..u know 2155.52 hectare is how big or not..do some homework only comment

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-27 23:18 | Report Abuse

I don't see any news that say they are getting 1.3bn but we shall see. the thing about Vivocom, I'm not sure if they are too transparent or not transparent at all. They announced every single event, including HOA. but after the HOA lapsed, they didn't even make follow up announcement.

Posted by kevin008 > 2016-10-27 23:20 | Report Abuse

756m amanjaya in ipoh is all goverment project..the new bus stations and all the govt building there..most important there is a theme park will open soon there..

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-27 23:21 | Report Abuse

from the 30 May announcement,

The LOI shall be effective on the date of signing and shall remain effective subject to termination by either party notifying of its intention to terminate in writing. The LOI serves only as a record of the parties’ intentions and does not constitute or create obligations under the Malaysian domestic law and will not give rise to any legal process and will not be deemed to constitute or create any legally binding or enforceable obligations, expressed or implied and neither party shall have any liability to the other party in respect of the same.

besides, everything is just speculation until Zhonghe actually pass some contract to Vivocom

Posted by kevin008 > 2016-10-27 23:22 | Report Abuse

https://www.mapsperak.com/

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-27 23:24 | Report Abuse

for 15 Jan announcement, there's another follow up announcement on 19 Jan

The feasibility and due diligence study is expected to be completed within the next six (6) months. Thereupon, the definitive agreements are expected to be signed by the Parties within three (3) months after the finalization of the feasibility and due diligence study.

It's coming to Nov and nothing has materialised yet. It could well be a contract win or it could end up like other HOAs that silently lapsed. time will tell

Posted by SingInvestor > 2016-10-27 23:43 | Report Abuse

Thanks you Jay and Kevin008 for enlighten us with all the issues that happen in this stock.

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-10-27 23:49 | Report Abuse

I do not wish to argue. Jay do not even has proven facts any HOA is cancel. And are you sure your figure will match q3 n q4 result. Why guess and why not wait q3 to see result in your eye. I m not a short term trader neither contra player.

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-27 23:49 | Report Abuse

another thing that makes me uncomfortable is that all the analysts covering this stock seems to be making wildly guesses. First CIMB assumes FY17 revenue of RM3bn (which if average construction period is 2 year, company has to win >RM6bn contracts!?). Next if you look at MIDF, TP 63 sen based on 13x FY17EPS which in the report FY17 is 4c. 13 x 4 = 63? and the 4c is derived from net profit of RM111m, which is an eps of 3.2/3.4c depending if you use current share base or expanded share base. it would be unfair to blame the company on outsiders' incompetence, but from my experience, when analyst simply write usually someone paid them to...

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-10-27 23:51 | Report Abuse

More effective way go see the new office and check what expansion they are into. What if you are wrong? Just a guess

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-27 23:52 | Report Abuse

no problem. thanks for all constructive comments. I know my approach may not to be everyone's liking but I believe that company AS IT IS, should have greater value than its market cap, without needing to look into crystal ball for the future. that would give you margin of safety at least when the "prospects" never materialise

Posted by Mini Bull > 2016-10-27 23:53 | Report Abuse

down trend... From name Instacom change to Vivocom for what purpose ?
Only one word from me, Malaysian is the most easiest people to forgot things in this world

Posted by pku123 > 2016-10-27 23:57 | Report Abuse

avoid will do. con counter.

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-10-27 23:58 | Report Abuse

You may agree/disagree/agree to disagree
It seem belong to someone ID that missing in action.

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-10-28 00:04 | Report Abuse

Anyway thanks Jay

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-28 00:08 | Report Abuse

I hope that everyone can keep their comments here civilised. don't simply accuse companies of fake contracts or con counter unless you can show evidence. if it's just your suspicion, please keep it to yourself. facts will prevail, so just stick to facts will do. thanks..

Posted by Robert123 > 2016-10-28 00:11 | Report Abuse

No entry signal detect ...avoid while waiting..

Posted by Topgugu > 2016-10-28 00:52 | Report Abuse

Jay, any review on PESTECH ?

Posted by Yippy68 > 2016-10-28 07:13 | Report Abuse

thank Jay, i agreed with you. 700k sold and cut lost to hevea and jtiasa. made it back and waiting for vivo to come to below 15 sen

Posted by yktay1 > 2016-10-28 08:27 | Report Abuse

sell house

Posted by Sales > 2016-10-28 09:36 | Report Abuse

Jay we need people like you. Thank you for the info. Hope in the future will get more news from you.

Posted by smartly > 2016-10-28 10:23 | Report Abuse

jay, you are assessing to the current instant of vivo of which it maybe true to the certain extent of the current situation but future prospect was not in the picture, thus there might not be 100 percent accurate in term of growth factor in vivo.
anyhow well done. keep it up.