Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-26 18:41 | Report Abuse

data mining, kc?

doesn't work.

the moment you find a pattern, the pattern changes already.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-26 19:39 | Report Abuse

of course call warrants best to avoid...unless one think he is smart enough to outsmart the issuers who are professionals.

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-03-26 21:20 | Report Abuse

stockmanmy, kc chong is just finding a pattern to point out you are wrong

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-26 21:30 | Report Abuse

no, I am not wrong.

you lose money if you always enter, right time or wrong time also enter.

ever since the last time, I did not enter, so no lose money

still finding the right time time to enter. Keyed in 26.5 a few days ago...based on the cw with the largest volume but order not filled.

Posted by JN88 > 2017-03-26 21:46 | Report Abuse

Kcchong sifu : long time no see.haha

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-03-27 08:36 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > Mar 26, 2017 06:41 PM | Report Abuse
data mining, kc?
doesn't work.
the moment you find a pattern, the pattern changes already.


What "data mining"?

What "pattern"?

What are you talking about in relation to this post?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-03-27 08:42 | Report Abuse

Posted by Hippo > Mar 26, 2017 10:40 PM | Report Abuse
Wondering whether KC sifu can comment a bit on C38.


Table 3 in the article shows you the comparison of C38 with other call warrants.

C38 has the lowest premium, and the highest gearing. Good punt I think.

Just that its time is short now which does not give it enough time to make potential extra-ordinary gain for example like C47.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-27 09:08 | Report Abuse

patterns come in many forms including....geometric shapes, formulas, ratios, mathematics but alas,
the moment you find a pattern, the pattern changes already.

Posted by Shellhouse > 2017-03-27 10:42 | Report Abuse

I dont think this article has anything to do with patterns.

Premiums and gearing in this case are the real deal. like dividends. what you see is what you get. The point of the article is to educate on making a judgement call based on gearing and premium of CWs. For example, C38 is trading at a relatively low premium, almost identical to mother share.

If you think the mother share will go up, with such a high gearing, your returns will be magnified.



stockmanmy patterns come in many forms including....geometric shapes, formulas, ratios, mathematics but alas,
the moment you find a pattern, the pattern changes already.
27/03/2017 09:08

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-27 10:59 | Report Abuse

in the case of Airasia where there are many competing options for call warrants, how do you decide which call warrant?

the interplay between premium, time and gearing is a very complex one.

if you have the software, you can apply the Black Sholes model......

But I tell you it is waste of time.

If one make, they will all make money, and vis versa.

Don't use your grey matter for redundant stuffs....use your grey matter for more effective matter like market conditions etc etc........just buy the call with the largest volume. or don't buy if you are not comfortable with market condition.



reserve the grey matter for more meaningful work is more effective.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-03-27 13:17 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > Mar 27, 2017 09:08 AM | Report Abuse
patterns come in many forms including....geometric shapes, formulas, ratios, mathematics but alas,
the moment you find a pattern, the pattern changes already.


formulas, ratios, mathematics are patterns?

OMG!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-03-27 13:24 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > Mar 27, 2017 10:59 AM | Report Abuse
in the case of Airasia where there are many competing options for call warrants, how do you decide which call warrant?

ME; EASY AS EXPLAINED IN MY ARTICLES. IT WORKS MOST IF NOT ALL THE TIME, UNLIKE YOUR FUZZY "PIVOTAL MOMENT", "DYNAMIC INVESTING" AND ALL YOUR OTHER NOOSENSE.

the interplay between premium, time and gearing is a very complex one.

REALLY. YOU CAN'T EVEN UNDERSTAND MY SIMPLE EXPLANATION?

if you have the software, you can apply the Black Sholes model......

I DO NOT NEED A SOFTWARE TO ESTIMATE VALUE OF DERIVATIVES. IT IS NOT DIFFICULT TO BUILD AN EXCEL TEMPLATE.

But I tell you it is waste of time.

If one make, they will all make money, and vis versa.

I HAVE JUST EXPLAINED TO YOU HOW LOOKING AT PREMIUMS, TIME VALUE, GEARING IN ORDER TO HAVE BETTER CHANCE OF MAKING MONEY PUNTING CALL WARRANTS. ALAS, AS USUAL, I DON'T THINK YOU UNDERSTAND.

Don't use your grey matter for redundant stuffs....use your grey matter for more effective matter like market conditions etc etc........just buy the call with the largest volume. or don't buy if you are not comfortable with market condition.

CARE TO ELABORATE? CATCH NO BALLS.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-27 13:26 | Report Abuse

kc

if investment is by formulas, some one would have invented the perfect algorithm by now and leave every thing to the computer.

no need human input already.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-03-27 13:31 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > Mar 27, 2017 01:26 PM | Report Abuse
kc
if investment is by formulas, some one would have invented the perfect algorithm by now and leave every thing to the computer.
no need human input already.


so mind to share how you use your "pivotal moment". "dynamic investing" etc. and make money in the stock market?

Some records would be good.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-27 14:09 | Report Abuse

kc

there comes pivotal moments occasionally. sailang and make huge and fast returns.

Like Jaks from down to $ 1.00 soon after results. from a high of $ 1.40.

$ 1.00 was the starting point before the last rally.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-03-27 14:19 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > Mar 27, 2017 02:09 PM | Report Abuse
kc
there comes pivotal moments occasionally. sailang and make huge and fast returns.
Like Jaks from down to $ 1.00 soon after results. from a high of $ 1.40.
$ 1.00 was the starting point before the last rally.


So how much have you made sailanging Jaks?

How many times and how much you have made big using your apa-itu "pivotal moment" and sailang and made big money? Which occasion, which stock?

Have you become filthy rich by using your apa-itu "pivotal moment" and become multi-millionaire sailanging UMWOG? What about sailanging CSC Steel at RM2.30+?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-27 14:22 | Report Abuse

kc

KLSE is a semi perfect market. There is no arbitrage opportunity between c1 or c2 or c3 or c4.

all in the same boat, all sink or float together.

instead of focusing on arbitrage between various Cs, the grey matter is better used in more relevant matters.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-27 14:23 | Report Abuse

kc

improving all the time....better today than 6 months ago.

very satisfied with 2017 returns.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-03-27 15:11 | Report Abuse

Who is talking about arbitrage opportunity in AirAsia call warrant?

Do you understand what arbitrage is?


Posted by stockmanmy > Mar 27, 2017 02:22 PM | Report Abuse
kc
KLSE is a semi perfect market. There is no arbitrage opportunity between c1 or c2 or c3 or c4.
all in the same boat, all sink or float together.
instead of focusing on arbitrage between various Cs, the grey matter is better used in more relevant matters.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-27 16:33 | Report Abuse

what is it you want to choose between c1 or c2 or c3 or c4....if it is not arbitrage?

just buy the one with the largest volume or ignore all together.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-27 16:38 | Report Abuse

whether it is c1 or c2 or c3 or c4, you make or lose depends on the future of the Air Asia share, does not matter whether it is c1 or c2 or c3 or c4.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-03-27 16:38 | Report Abuse

That is arbitrage? Where did you learn your accounting stuff?

And can show some examples that you buy the call warrants with highest volume and you made money?



Posted by stockmanmy > Mar 27, 2017 04:33 PM | Report Abuse

what is it you want to choose between c1 or c2 or c3 or c4....if it is not arbitrage?

just buy the one with the largest volume or ignore all together.

Posted by michael_jackson > 2017-03-27 16:40 | Report Abuse

never heard about data mining before? got pattern some more...why make life so difficult??.....

Posted by Blacksails > 2017-03-27 16:50 | Report Abuse

buy cw with discount like maybank-c24.

Posted by michael_jackson > 2017-03-27 17:21 | Report Abuse

buy mother share is much easier....always receive dividend every month from every counter that i invested....better than FD....no need to learn about complicated data mining...instead of making money, you will be losing more on so called warrant..

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-27 17:29 | Report Abuse

buying the c with the largest volume has a lot of advantages, the most important is that it will response quickly to market conditions..you do not want to buy a c that is half dead and shows no response.

Posted by yangstyle10forms > 2017-03-27 23:04 | Report Abuse

I think it is very dependent on how you want to play call / put warrant and the experience you have gone through over years.

1)To say that the premium, time value and gearing are not important, is totally not true also.

If one were to enter the battlefield without even knowing how to perform the basic calculation, most of the time, the traders will end up being exploited. There was one time,many many moons ago, when DRB Hicom just started to surge - it should be somewhere around year 2010-2011 of observation, there were many CWs and PW issued by IBs. All the CWs were surging and surprisingly the only PW issued was also surging.

The surged lasted for few days until the major press made the article about the phenomenal PW surged when the mother share was rising. Only then, the PW started to
behave normally again. However, by that time, those who bought the PW without even know the basic of the instrument have been exploited. Hence, the basic knowledge of the instrument is essential.

2) If you were buy the CWs or PWs and hold until expiry, the premium or discount value are important. You do not want to overpay the premium or if possible, you want the instrument to be in discount as much as possible. I hold the CWs until expiry a few times. The experiences were not the pleasant - the settling price will be exploited by the IBs. Ever since, I do not hold the CW or PW until expiry, the premium / value and discount value is no longer that significant to short term trader like me. Back to the point, the premium / discount is important if you hold till expiry but it is not significant if you are doing a short term trade.

3) Do not be overjoyed if you are getting the CWs in low premium or discount. If you are getting the low premium or discount underlying, most of the time,
the low premium or discount is associated with the close to the expiry or worst, it is associated with the unfair/lousy market making by the issuer. If you have battled the IB one on one, only you versus the IB ( low volume CW ). When the mother share surge, the underlying bidding did not move and the gap between bid for sell and buy become wider & wider. In the end, you have to sell CW back to issuer at discount / low premium to make the chicken feet profit due to the unfair market making acitvity & there is no one else buying in. By going for the highest volume, you can eliminate the issue of the wide range bidding. In CWs trade, we go by 100,000 units by 100,000 units, every single bid of RM 0.005 counts. By going for the highest volume,the trader stand more chance against the crowd rather than battling the IBs in the lone battle. Hence, Stockmanmy's statement to go on highest volume do hold some merit.

4) However, the item under item 3) will not be an issue at all is you are playing against a fair market maker. The ranking of fairness of market making activities from my personal experience :-

1st - Macquire Capital
2nd - CIMB Investment
3rd - RHB Investment
4th - KIBB, AMBank, MIBB = kelentong category.

If one have gone through the process over and over from 2) to 4) with the check on item 1). Eventually, you will go for the highest volume CWs.

You will realize that from the experience, you will not hold you instruments until expiry - to prevent exploit by IBs 5 days weighted average volume closing to determine the settlement price. Hence, premium & expiry date become less significant. You will also realize that after some time, those who are well
informed or knowledgeable will do the selection after considering item 2) & 4), eventually they will decide which CW with the highest volume - you just do
final verification and most of the time will follow the crowd.

The conclusion = it all depends on they way you are playing and the experience

The above are my personal point of views.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-03-28 00:02 | Report Abuse

yangstyle10forms, excellent comment. Thanks.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-28 00:20 | Report Abuse

that KC is an academic, stockman is battle hardened.

the saying that good stuffs are never cheap and cheap stuffs are not good is applicable to stock market as in life and especially applicable in the highly geared and dangerous instruments as a call warrant.

why want to hold a call warrant? Share market not exciting enough for you meh?


call warrants are trading instruments , nothing more....you try to hold for as short as possible, just hit and run. Play the trend, that is all ...it is against probability and the odds to hold a call warrant only to see the premium disappear.

and if a call warrant trades at a discount, you really have to think twice, think many times before you want to buy it.


the safest bet, the most accurate bet you can control is to buy the call warrant with the highest volume when many of the same share are available for you to choose from. It is where the market wants it.....your job as a trader is to get the trend ( of the share ) right, nothing else matters.

you do not want to lose money even if you get the trend right. Low volume half dead instruments are useless trading instruments.

Posted by insulter > 2017-03-28 10:53 | Report Abuse

it is not a right thing to teach retail call warrant... most of the people lose until underwear lose...

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-28 11:04 | Report Abuse

that's true

call warrants are invented by professionals to suck blood of the less sophisticated.


insulter > Mar 28, 2017 10:53 AM | Report Abuse

it is not a right thing to teach retail call warrant... most of the people lose until underwear lose...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-03-28 14:56 | Report Abuse

Posted by insulter > Mar 28, 2017 10:53 AM | Report Abuse
it is not a right thing to teach retail call warrant... most of the people lose until underwear lose...


Promoting punting of call warrants to the general public is definitely not right. That is why the below was my opening statements.

However, is it bad to teach them to avoid the pitfalls in punting of call warrants?



"Punting like the above can be fun, but,

“Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction.” -Warren Buffett

Each time I talk about call warrants, I always quote what Warren Buffett said on the above. This is because it is dangerous and unethical to promote something like punting to the generally innocent and naïve public, just like promoting margin finance to the innocents. My purpose writing about this aims at sharing what I know about punting of call warrants, and for those still insist in doing so."

Posted by franky65 > 2017-03-28 15:30 | Report Abuse

After reading all this I will NEVER touch Warrants .............................

Posted by Ezra > 2017-03-28 15:35 | Report Abuse

KC, there is no need to waste your time with them.

“Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.” - George Carlin

Posted by valuelurker > 2017-03-28 16:35 | Report Abuse

Warrants and their 'intrinsic values' change rapidly

You also need to take into account that Airasia is going to announce AAC's sale, therefore you now also have a corporate exercise to take into account, which is time sensitive

For these reasons before the run-up, the 'best' choice would be C46 - it tracks the underlying closely, and because if what fatman tony says is true, they will announce the AAC bids '4-5 weeks' from tender closing, which should be in early May

It just so happens that it is also the most active warrant

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-28 16:38 | Report Abuse

If you can come to my level, your parents will thank God.

Ezra > Mar 28, 2017 03:35 PM | Report Abuse

KC, there is no need to waste your time with them.

Posted by Ezra > 2017-03-29 18:16 | Report Abuse

Thanks but no thanks. I wouldn't wanna fall to a level as low as you are.


Posted by stockmanmy > Mar 28, 2017 04:38 PM | Report Abuse

If you can come to my level, your parents will thank God.

Ezra > Mar 28, 2017 03:35 PM | Report Abuse

KC, there is no need to waste your time with them.

Posted by Ezra > 2017-03-29 18:20 | Report Abuse

“Never argue with an stockmanmy. He will only bring you down to his low level and beat you with experience.” ― Ezra.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-03-29 18:30 | Report Abuse

Posted by Ezra > Mar 29, 2017 06:20 PM | Report Abuse
“Never argue with an stockmanmy. He will only bring you down to his low level and beat you with experience.” ― Ezra.


I always welcome constructive criticisms, and not personal attack. It is good to discuss things in the forum. This guy is ok as he likes to argue on anyone's view and he doesn't go on personal attack.

On the other hand, he will sing praises non-stop for one person, on every word he says and whatever he propagates, some of them are so misleading and utterly wrong.

Very interesting guy. Never met one to this extent before.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-03-29 18:35 | Report Abuse

kc

I am certainly better than those who spread fake news and accuse others of being fake accountants.

Posted by Blacksails > 2017-03-29 18:45 | Report Abuse

KC Chong, What is your opinion on Maybank-C24? Would you say call warrants are used by seasoned traders/ investors as an "insurance cover" in certain cases, if you know what I mean.

Posted by Blacksails > 2017-03-29 20:46 | Report Abuse

If I'm not wrong, the first covered warrants were issued by PNB, and they were all blue clip counters. Believed PNB made a big loss in the end.

Posted by Blacksails > 2017-03-29 21:03 | Report Abuse

blue chips counters like Maxis, Tenaga and Maybank.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-03-30 00:04 | Report Abuse

Posted by Blacksails > Mar 29, 2017 06:45 PM | Report Abuse
KC Chong, What is your opinion on Maybank-C24? Would you say call warrants are used by seasoned traders/ investors as an "insurance cover" in certain cases, if you know what I mean.


Writing, or selling an option, or call warrant is more for investment banks here, not traders/investors like those markets with matured option market.

The writer of options would have the underlying shares for those "covered warrants".

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-03-30 00:06 | Report Abuse

Posted by Blacksails > Mar 29, 2017 08:46 PM | Report Abuse
If I'm not wrong, the first covered warrants were issued by PNB, and they were all blue clip counters. Believed PNB made a big loss in the end.

If PNB had hedged, or covered those written call warrants, they shouldn't be losing big.

They appeared to become speculators rather than as hedgers.

Posted by KLCI King > 2017-03-30 02:17 | Report Abuse

Fake accountant claimed to be better than fake accountants? Stockmanmy, you are making fun of yourself. What a JOKE of the day.

Posted by stockmanmy > Mar 29, 2017 06:35 PM | Report Abuse
kc, I am certainly better than those who spread fake news and accuse others of being fake accountants.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2017-03-30 07:09 | Report Abuse

Wrong. Choose your Warrants wisely as per KC. Otherwise your CW will be like old man tak boleh naik (due to high premium and low gearing)

Trading Volume is secondary. My Airasia C27 rose from 21 sen to 67 sen but all this while thinly traded

Don't believe me ? Go check the chart

manmy always think he very intelligent and made sweeping statement . He can bluff others, but cannot bluff old dogs like me and KC



Posted by stockmanmy > Mar 27, 2017 05:29 PM | Report Abuse

buying the c with the largest volume has a lot of advantages, the most important is that it will response quickly to market conditions..you do not want to buy a c that is half dead and shows no response.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2017-03-30 07:17 | Report Abuse

The correct way to choose is a combination of (1) low premium (2) high gearing and (3) long expiry

If you see something like the above, can whack big. The chance of profit is good

Volume totally irrelevant

Posted by Icon8888 > 2017-03-30 07:20 | Report Abuse

My latest exposure is C47. Cost 12 sen

But I bought not much. Only one twentieth of my mother share exposure. Instead I punt big on mother shares. The percentage return lower, but I can punt real big. You can't do that for Call Warrants. It is madness to put 40% (lets say) of your portfolio in an instrument that will expire in few months

Posted by Icon8888 > 2017-03-30 07:53 | Report Abuse

I would also like to take the opportunity to touch on the topic of sailang promoted by manmy. No body really sailang by betting big big on a particular stock. The process is gradual. You starts small, and as more info trickle in and things seemed to evolve in positive direction , you scale up your exposure (sometime drastically)

When visibility is really really good and risk very favorable, you execute the final "sailang" jump

That is the way it is done in real life