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PBBANK: Technical Outlook Suggest Target of RM5 (Uptrend but Overbought) - KingKKK
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CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
yangstyle10forms
125 posts
Posted by yangstyle10forms > 2017-07-02 07:43 | Report Abuse
If the raw material is rubber wood, the shortage is permanent. Why so ? Refer to RRIM Statistic here : http://www.lgm.gov.my/nrstat/nrstats.pdf
Malaysia no longer the world leader in exporting raw unprocessed rubber. We are importing raw rubber from countries like Thailand, Vietnam & Gold Coast ( West Africa ), etc.
There is a demographic change from rubber cultivation to palm oil. Every 10 holder small holding of rubber farmers, when the old trees felled, almost 9 out of 10 farmers will replant it with palm oil. Reasons being :-
1. Rubber tress has longer maturity period, 6-7 years as compare to palm oil which only takes 3-4 years. Old people said, cannot wait to reap the planting of rubber trees, anything can happens in the 6-7 years. Palm oil, at least wait 3-4 years only.
2. More physical labor required. Rubber tress are tap as early as 3 am in the morning & latex collection before 12 pm. The tapping on the same tress are carried out on alternate day / 15 days per month / 30 days per 2 months. Palm oil upon maturity, you only harvest once 20 days , 3 times in 2 months. The harvester can be hired, farmers only sit on motorbike or ATV to look see, look see. Imagine the amount of time & hard work reduces in rubber & palm oil cultivation.
3. During raining season, the farmers have battle against the rain as the rain will jeopardize the harvesting process or dilute the concentration of the latex which will resulted in poorer grading / selling price. Whereas for palm oil, rain are welcome any day & any time.
4. Rubber got wintering process. During the time from early of the year, around Feb to May annually, the rubber trees leaves will fall. Rubber farmers do not tape the rubber during this period if the trees are young ( old trees they will just wallop coz the trees will be fell soon ). From Feb to May annual, there will be disruption of income for rubber farmers. Whereas for palm oil, it is constant year of harvest, no disruption of the harvesting.
5. Rubber harvesting process are taking long time & farmers are subjected to mosquito biting, latex sticking to skin / hair (free waxing) & offensive odor. For palm oil harvesting, the harvester can be hired. The farmers only sit on motorbike or ATV to look see, look see. Imagine the amount of time & hard work reduces in rubber & palm oil cultivation.
In the years to come, more and more rubber farms will be replanted by palm oil. The supply scarcity is permanent due to demographic change on the nature of rubber cultivation vs palm oil cultivation. Just drive around all the famous rubber townships nowadays vs the time of 80s to 90s, you see more palm oil farms compare to rubber farms.
It is inevitable because farmers are getting smarter.