Posted by 稻田·* 片片绿青~粒粒芳香 > 2017-08-01 10:30 | Report Abuse
A lot of time being used.... appreciate the effort,,,,, salute...
Posted by VenFx > 2017-08-01 10:45 | Report Abuse
Big Like to davidtslim's total coverage for HengYuang .
Posted by MCC8 > 2017-08-02 13:21 | Report Abuse
Good article, clear explanations support with numeric ........
Posted by probability > 2017-08-02 18:41 | Report Abuse
HISTORICAL RECORD CRACK SPREAD: 11.4 USD/BRL !
http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=D1N&title=AUG_2017_Singapore_Mogas_92_Unleaded_%28Platts%29_Brent_Crack_Spread_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=Q7&year=2017&exchangeCode=XNYM&chartMode=dynamic
Posted by probability > 2017-08-02 19:19 | Report Abuse
Historical record crack spread: 11.4 USD/BRL !
http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=D1N&title=AUG_2017_Singapore_Mogas_92_Unleaded_%28Platts%29_Brent_Crack_Spread_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=Q7&year=2017&exchangeCode=XNYM&chartMode=dynamic
What is the implication of Rise in refining margin by 1 USD/brl?
= 112k bpd x 90 days x 1 USD/brl x RM 4.3/USD
= 43.3M increase in Gross profit per qtr
for 300M shares, the rise in EPS per qtr = 14.4 cents/qtr
(just remember this for simplicity)
The above crack spread is more than double the average of 2016 ~ 5.5 USD/brl.
Basically you need 3USD/brl ( 3 x 43.3M = 130M) to cover HRC Overhead costs, Depreciation and Finanec cost of approximately 120M per qtr.
So any surplus refining margin above 3USD/brl purely translates as Net profits.
For the last qtr at 9USD/brl, the net contribution 6USD/brl ( 9 - 3), so your EPS was :
= 14.4 cents x 6
= ~ 90 cents / qtr
Imagine if it can sustain at current 11 - 3 = 8 USD/brl surplus, what would be the EPS per qtr average?
= 14.4 cents x 8
= 115 cent / qtr
Posted by MakingLove > 2017-08-03 09:47 | Report Abuse
The quality of this article is similar to my name!
Posted by AC Gan > 2017-08-03 09:50 | Report Abuse
Good Sharing & Appreciate your work done.
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Alex Foo
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Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-08-01 10:26 | Report Abuse
roe40%!你的华文写得真好。是的,请在第三篇写ebit/ev的东西。。。期待