Blog: 第二篇：恒源 (HengYuan) - 强势炼油利润的大赢家

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9 comment(s). Last comment by AC Gan 2017-08-03 09:50

Alex Foo

12,594 posts

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-08-01 10:26 | Report Abuse

roe40%！你的华文写得真好。是的，请在第三篇写ebit/ev的东西。。。期待

稻田·* 片片绿青~粒粒芳香

26,756 posts

Posted by 稻田·* 片片绿青~粒粒芳香 > 2017-08-01 10:30 | Report Abuse

A lot of time being used.... appreciate the effort,,,,, salute...

VenFx

14,784 posts

Posted by VenFx > 2017-08-01 10:45 | Report Abuse

Big Like to davidtslim's total coverage for HengYuang .

MCC8

113 posts

Posted by MCC8 > 2017-08-02 13:21 | Report Abuse

Good article, clear explanations support with numeric ........

probability

14,496 posts

Posted by probability > 2017-08-02 18:41 | Report Abuse

HISTORICAL RECORD CRACK SPREAD: 11.4 USD/BRL !

http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=D1N&title=AUG_2017_Singapore_Mogas_92_Unleaded_%28Platts%29_Brent_Crack_Spread_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=Q7&year=2017&exchangeCode=XNYM&chartMode=dynamic

probability

14,496 posts

Posted by probability > 2017-08-02 19:19 | Report Abuse

Historical record crack spread: 11.4 USD/BRL !

http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=D1N&title=AUG_2017_Singapore_Mogas_92_Unleaded_%28Platts%29_Brent_Crack_Spread_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=Q7&year=2017&exchangeCode=XNYM&chartMode=dynamic


What is the implication of Rise in refining margin by 1 USD/brl?

= 112k bpd x 90 days x 1 USD/brl x RM 4.3/USD
= 43.3M increase in Gross profit per qtr

for 300M shares, the rise in EPS per qtr = 14.4 cents/qtr
(just remember this for simplicity)


The above crack spread is more than double the average of 2016 ~ 5.5 USD/brl.

Basically you need 3USD/brl ( 3 x 43.3M = 130M) to cover HRC Overhead costs, Depreciation and Finanec cost of approximately 120M per qtr.

So any surplus refining margin above 3USD/brl purely translates as Net profits.

For the last qtr at 9USD/brl, the net contribution 6USD/brl ( 9 - 3), so your EPS was :

= 14.4 cents x 6
= ~ 90 cents / qtr

Imagine if it can sustain at current 11 - 3 = 8 USD/brl surplus, what would be the EPS per qtr average?

= 14.4 cents x 8
= 115 cent / qtr

tealeaf

196 posts

Posted by tealeaf > 2017-08-03 07:42 | Report Abuse

great effort spent ..thanks

MakingLove

4 posts

Posted by MakingLove > 2017-08-03 09:47 | Report Abuse

The quality of this article is similar to my name!

AC Gan

188 posts

Posted by AC Gan > 2017-08-03 09:50 | Report Abuse

Good Sharing & Appreciate your work done.

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