Posted by John Lu 《 HIBISCUS 》 TP RM2 > 2018-01-20 20:11 | Report Abuse

LOL


CALVINTANENG, the king of finding undervalued “rubbish” stocks, and as a former car sales man, a consummate promoter (this is not a compliment). I still think it is very unethical to promote stocks like he does

Posted by lizi > 2018-01-20 20:35 | Report Abuse

why analyse so much? to earn money in stock market, i focus more on logical wisdom, risk management and emotion control.

Posted by godhand > 2018-01-20 20:38 | Report Abuse

Emotion control is the most important one. How many ppl can see their stock drop 50%. Less than 1%

Posted by cheoky > 2018-01-20 20:46 | Report Abuse

Is not emotion control. Is deliberate ignorance while drunk one on the value of your company. Hahaha. But still unsure whether I will be rewarded or not. Anyway I start to like reading author blogs.

Posted by cheoky > 2018-01-20 20:48 | Report Abuse

I believe if I stare at the hrc ticker full time. I would have sold out.

Posted by godhand > 2018-01-20 20:49 | Report Abuse

He’s writing style is very honest his very own perspective. Feel relax reading his writings

Posted by myongcc5 > 2018-01-20 20:50 | Report Abuse

There r 3 IBs wth 313 mils CW expiring fm 22 Feb to 19 Mar!!!!

I thrown all the second day when suddenly realised the abv stated

Posted by More2It > 2018-01-20 20:52 | Report Abuse

Posted by John Lu 《 HIBISCUS 》 TP RM2 > Jan 20, 2018 08:11 PM | Report Abuse

LOL


CALVINTANENG, the king of finding undervalued “rubbish” stocks, and as a former car sales man, a consummate promoter (this is not a compliment). I still think it is very unethical to promote stocks like he does

totally agree, can get better returns , to just follow the blue chip stks or other hot favourites not in his list.

found that, some forums got tag team (3-6 ids), that recommend the stk typically below 40 cents share, as good buy, have to listen to them for sometime to detect, but not nice to name names , please take note

Posted by myongcc5 > 2018-01-20 20:53 | Report Abuse

HRC is definitely not bad fundamentally but too much CWs wth 5 mkt maker!
One can expect the stock to b wildly VOLATILE

Posted by myongcc5 > 2018-01-20 21:31 | Report Abuse

..too many SWs wth 5 market makers. CO just issued on Friday by CIMB

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-01-20 21:49 | Report Abuse

Ricky Yeo is one of the few people in the forum who i will read when he writes. His depth in thinking and research is truly very very hard to find in the KLSE.

I do not agree with some of his picks, but i will listen and ask clarifying questions.

Icon8818 Wasted 10 minutes reading rubbish! Jon choivo = Ricky yo brother?
20/01/2018 20:13

Posted by pjseow > 2018-01-20 23:38 | Report Abuse

Jon , I have the same puzzle as you on what is the difference between Hengyuan and Petron in terms of refinery upgrades . Based on a few i3 sifus , Hengyuan management and technical teams are the smartest in the world . They just need to spend RM 700 million to upgrade to the latest state of the art refinery whereas others ( Petronas , Petron, Aramco and other top notch refineries ) need to spend more than 10 times the amount to get similar upgrades . Why cant others copy what Hengyuan did and save the billions ? The equipment and instrument companies which do the upgrade can surely recommend the same methods to others unless only Hengyuan knows the cheapest ways . I hope it doesnt turn out that the RM 700 million upgrade will not work at all . Hengyuan may end up the need to do the same ways as others and spend billions . THis is the risks which Davidts lim did mentioned in his number 8 write up.

Posted by More2It > 2018-01-20 23:39 | Report Abuse

benefited from your perspectives of events, except on the issue of

Why such volatility in Hengyuan (and PetronM)?

in my opinion, cannot be explained accurately, without understanding the roles played by super investor KYY, the stock broking investments funds, local funds n china funds, which must have been here since the beginning.
not possible to boost price from @rm8.50 in nov.2017 to peak of rm19.20 in dec.29, solely driven by retail players margin funds

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-01-21 01:25 | Report Abuse

pjseow, i try not to think too deeply. I use this method. I dont need to know the weight of a woman to know if she is fat, nor the age of a man to know if he is old.

If i need to know it with precision, its probably not that good of an investment if expected value is taken into account. They are many other investments that are easy to understand and still undervalued.



More2It, you would be surprised. How did bitcoin go up to USD20k at one point? One small group of people can push up a price, if no one wants to sell at all. As prices go higher, people get greedier, and want to keep the stock even more. This lack of supply ensures panic buying and price shoots up.

And as we can see the last few days, when one person wants to sell, everyone wants to sell. So we get panic selling and the price drops like no tomorrow. And as humans, we think it will really go to no tomorrow and sell.

I dont deny foreign funds are in, but that is never the big difference. Im writing 2 more post on the operators and why KLSE under perform other indices.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-01-21 01:32 | Report Abuse

I don't really bother trying to predict earnings. I focus on understanding the business and the moat.

If i need a fantastic quarter for my investment thesis to work out, i think im fucking up. Because it is not my edge or forte.

The funny thing about predicting earnings, is that a lot can go wrong. And what can go wrong, often the predictor does not even know.

However, because they believe in their prediction, they take a less than adequate margin of safety. Which means when they die, they really die.

All i know is that Hengyuan is now still cheap. But i always keep in mind that record earnings have a way to make things look cheap. And that the crack spread will compress. And that a significant proportion of earnings this year is due to inventory gain, forex gain as well as extenuating circumstances that result in record high spreads.

Which is why its only 3% of portfolio, while PetronM is 9%. Petronm is 9% because it can 100% sell its own product. Hengyuan must rely on china.

So question now is. What is the real operating earnings and how resilient is it. This is really really hard to answer, unless you have worked in refineries for decades and know the conditions worldwide.

When HY goes to 20, i think i'm out. I wont be sure if the woman is fat or not then.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-01-21 05:02 | Report Abuse

@purebull

How to you know the right timing? In a bull market, any timing is the right timing, and in a bear market, any timing is the wrong timing.

Stocks become cornered (also know as liquidity crunch) where either, no one wants to sell, and the price shoots up like mad.

Or when no one wants to buy, and the price free fall for you to see.

Haha, feel free to explain your education theory a bit more.

Posted by PureBULL . > 2018-01-21 06:46 | Report Abuse

http://purebull-bursatrader.blogspot.ca/2013/02/how-to-goreng-or-fly-stock-successfully.html

Posted by vvcb > 2018-01-22 11:09 | Report Abuse

Jon Choivo. Thanks for a well written clear headed article which is a joy to read. Keep writing. If there is a follow tag, I would have tagged it.

Posted by Op3rs > 2018-01-22 15:14 | Report Abuse

Very good article! Learnt alot from it. THX

Posted by limch > 2018-01-23 04:39 | Report Abuse

When the music will stop? CWs' expiring next mth. Before no such scenario so goreng on good QR possible.