CALVINTANENG, the king of finding undervalued “rubbish” stocks, and as a former car sales man, a consummate promoter (this is not a compliment). I still think it is very unethical to promote stocks like he does
Is not emotion control. Is deliberate ignorance while drunk one on the value of your company. Hahaha. But still unsure whether I will be rewarded or not. Anyway I start to like reading author blogs.
Posted by John Lu 《 HIBISCUS 》 TP RM2 > Jan 20, 2018 08:11 PM | Report Abuse
LOL
CALVINTANENG, the king of finding undervalued “rubbish” stocks, and as a former car sales man, a consummate promoter (this is not a compliment). I still think it is very unethical to promote stocks like he does
totally agree, can get better returns , to just follow the blue chip stks or other hot favourites not in his list.
found that, some forums got tag team (3-6 ids), that recommend the stk typically below 40 cents share, as good buy, have to listen to them for sometime to detect, but not nice to name names , please take note
Ricky Yeo is one of the few people in the forum who i will read when he writes. His depth in thinking and research is truly very very hard to find in the KLSE.
I do not agree with some of his picks, but i will listen and ask clarifying questions.
Icon8818 Wasted 10 minutes reading rubbish! Jon choivo = Ricky yo brother? 20/01/2018 20:13
Jon , I have the same puzzle as you on what is the difference between Hengyuan and Petron in terms of refinery upgrades . Based on a few i3 sifus , Hengyuan management and technical teams are the smartest in the world . They just need to spend RM 700 million to upgrade to the latest state of the art refinery whereas others ( Petronas , Petron, Aramco and other top notch refineries ) need to spend more than 10 times the amount to get similar upgrades . Why cant others copy what Hengyuan did and save the billions ? The equipment and instrument companies which do the upgrade can surely recommend the same methods to others unless only Hengyuan knows the cheapest ways . I hope it doesnt turn out that the RM 700 million upgrade will not work at all . Hengyuan may end up the need to do the same ways as others and spend billions . THis is the risks which Davidts lim did mentioned in his number 8 write up.
benefited from your perspectives of events, except on the issue of
Why such volatility in Hengyuan (and PetronM)?
in my opinion, cannot be explained accurately, without understanding the roles played by super investor KYY, the stock broking investments funds, local funds n china funds, which must have been here since the beginning. not possible to boost price from @rm8.50 in nov.2017 to peak of rm19.20 in dec.29, solely driven by retail players margin funds
pjseow, i try not to think too deeply. I use this method. I dont need to know the weight of a woman to know if she is fat, nor the age of a man to know if he is old.
If i need to know it with precision, its probably not that good of an investment if expected value is taken into account. They are many other investments that are easy to understand and still undervalued.
More2It, you would be surprised. How did bitcoin go up to USD20k at one point? One small group of people can push up a price, if no one wants to sell at all. As prices go higher, people get greedier, and want to keep the stock even more. This lack of supply ensures panic buying and price shoots up.
And as we can see the last few days, when one person wants to sell, everyone wants to sell. So we get panic selling and the price drops like no tomorrow. And as humans, we think it will really go to no tomorrow and sell.
I dont deny foreign funds are in, but that is never the big difference. Im writing 2 more post on the operators and why KLSE under perform other indices.
I don't really bother trying to predict earnings. I focus on understanding the business and the moat.
If i need a fantastic quarter for my investment thesis to work out, i think im fucking up. Because it is not my edge or forte.
The funny thing about predicting earnings, is that a lot can go wrong. And what can go wrong, often the predictor does not even know.
However, because they believe in their prediction, they take a less than adequate margin of safety. Which means when they die, they really die.
All i know is that Hengyuan is now still cheap. But i always keep in mind that record earnings have a way to make things look cheap. And that the crack spread will compress. And that a significant proportion of earnings this year is due to inventory gain, forex gain as well as extenuating circumstances that result in record high spreads.
Which is why its only 3% of portfolio, while PetronM is 9%. Petronm is 9% because it can 100% sell its own product. Hengyuan must rely on china.
So question now is. What is the real operating earnings and how resilient is it. This is really really hard to answer, unless you have worked in refineries for decades and know the conditions worldwide.
When HY goes to 20, i think i'm out. I wont be sure if the woman is fat or not then.
When the music will stop? CWs' expiring next mth. Before no such scenario so goreng on good QR possible.
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John Lu 《 HIBISCUS 》 TP RM2
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Posted by John Lu 《 HIBISCUS 》 TP RM2 > 2018-01-20 20:11 | Report Abuse
LOL
CALVINTANENG, the king of finding undervalued “rubbish” stocks, and as a former car sales man, a consummate promoter (this is not a compliment). I still think it is very unethical to promote stocks like he does