Posted by Invest_Sensibly > 2018-02-13 20:37 | Report Abuse

How is the performances of your Hevea, Tguan, Kuchai?

Posted by soojinhou > 2018-02-13 20:50 | Report Abuse

The problem with Mr Golden Rule is he doesn't really talk about risks. He will say the banks in China has done their due diligence but he doesn't tell you that the same Banks allow the Sri Lankan Hambantota port to fail so as to further indebt the country to China, allowing China to assert more influence over the country. Mr Golden Rule will only sell you a beautiful picture because it is in his interest to pump his stocks sky high, which offers him the possibility of dumping his stake to people chasing the tooth fairy.

Posted by hollandking > 2018-02-13 20:52 | Report Abuse

business sense? What about common sense?

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-02-13 21:05 | Report Abuse

Does business/common sense tell us something like....... intensification of steel business currently (rebar) is very energy demanding......

.....hence pretty soon will drive up oil and gas counters again?

Posted by cheoky > 2018-02-13 21:37 | Report Abuse

Ok with fa. But seems like value traps is ever present in bursa. Plentitude, kfima, bla bla bla....any antidote for value trap? Buy cheap, it can go cheaper, then what?

Posted by abang_misai > 2018-02-13 21:42 | Report Abuse

Hehe. I bought Plenitude at 3.50 & Kfima at 2.20 about 3 years ago or so. Followed him blindly after enrolling his program and got trapped until today. Nah bu heh

Posted by feet > 2018-02-13 22:21 | Report Abuse

Golden rule aka u-turn rules, look at hengyuan you will know.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-02-13 22:22 | Report Abuse

Options ( practically ):

a) cautiously trade 'popular/sexy' "growth" stocks which have clear future/prospects thus expensive as these values woild already be reflected in the share price
- TA based
- momentum driven
- time consuming/intensive
- attention demanding

b) patiently invest long in sidelined 'boring' "hopeless" divodend companies which have lost ground against the overall market........considering yourself part owner of the business........hold till perceptions of the value of the companies align with reality
- FA driven
- value driven
- prolonged time frame required
- inattention to short term market noises rather a must

Posted by cheoky > 2018-02-13 22:26 | Report Abuse

A. U get caught chasing high.
B. The value forever unrealized especially in bursa
is there a C path? Go punt 4D better it seems

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-02-13 22:37 | Report Abuse

Posted by Invest_Sensibly > Feb 13, 2018 08:37 PM | Report Abuse
How is the performances of your Hevea, Tguan, Kuchai?

This post discussed about FA, TA and BS. Does it discuss about Hevea, Tguan and Kuchai? Okay never mind, here are my response.

I first discussed about Hevea in i3investor on December 8 2013 in the link below,

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_challenge_2013_2h/40360.jsp

The share price was at a preadjusted price 95 sen, or an adjusted price of about 23 sen (please see Yahoo Finance). It went up to a high of closed to RM1.75, or 8 times the price when it was first discussed. It closed at 90 sen today on 13/2/18, down by a lot from its peak. I sold it at RM1.65 exactly 4 months ago on 13/10/2017, as I needed money to buy other stocks. Thanks for your concern.


I mentioned about Thong Guan in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/104956.jsp

I mentioned that a course participant recommended this stock some time in September 2014. It was selling at an adjusted price of about RM2.15 then. Three and a half years later on today, it closed at RM3.57, still a decent return of 66%, not bad at all. Thanks for your concern too. It actually went up to close to RM5.00 a few months ago. Unfortunately, I did not sell it as I don’t see any fundamental change in its business and its growth story.


I talk about Kuchai as a negative enterprise value investing strategy in the link below four years ago,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/45296.jsp

It was trading at RM1.20 then. I ought some and sold for some profit. Can’t remember how much did I sell.
Today, Kuchai is trading at RM2.15 now. If I were to keep it until today, the profit for this 4 years is 95 sen, or 79%, or a compounded growth of 16%, definitely over-performed the broad market by extremely wide margin.
So, anything wrong with Kuchai? Fundamentally, I see it has improved, improved by a lot more.

Posted by JN88 > 2018-02-13 22:46 | Report Abuse

Dear KCCHONGNZ:Thank you for your Article.

I will be happy if somebody able to discuss how a crisis form and manipulate.

Posted by cheoky > 2018-02-13 22:47 | Report Abuse

Dear kc pls comment value trap solution.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-02-13 22:49 | Report Abuse

Yes, cheoky......

...of only growth stocks keep growing (increasing share price)- bubbling like forever

...and undervalued companies always rise to align with reality

....then 100% traders/investors can be successful

Posted by JN88 > 2018-02-13 22:58 | Report Abuse

cheoky: sell your underwear buy the counter when you no more cash.

Posted by cheoky > 2018-02-13 23:03 | Report Abuse

My underwear is worthless la.

Posted by cheoky > 2018-02-13 23:08 | Report Abuse

Guess the response is charlie munger said anyone who think investing is easy is stupid. Then left only one own self to figure out. Amen

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-02-13 23:09 | Report Abuse

Posted by abang_misai > Feb 13, 2018 09:42 PM | Report Abuse
Hehe. I bought Plenitude at 3.50 & Kfima at 2.20 about 3 years ago or so. Followed him blindly after enrolling his program and got trapped until today. Nah bu heh


Nah bu heh? What is that?

Why you so lucky got trapped blindly following me in two stocks I shared in i3investor, when I have shared hundreds? Well, I am not stock God who won't get anything wrong in any shares I wrote. I don't think stock God exists at all in this world.

But Abang, jangan lah tipu helah. You enrolled in my programme and got trapped? I have never recommended in buying Kfima or Plenitude in my stock pick service, have I? They were in my portfolios which I shared in i3investor 5 years ago. With the high dividends received each year,I doubt one loses any money for Kfima. Plenitude, the last I checked, the loss is less than 10%.

So, Abang, why you so unlucky one? Some more telling lies.

By the way, the business of the twp companies have some obvious structural changes. That is part of FA. In FA, investing in a stock doesn't mean you hold it forever, does it?

Posted by FaizalAziz79 > 2018-02-13 23:13 | Report Abuse

can you comment on PTRANS as i can see both FA and BS for PTRANS is really sexy...check out PTRANS thread for more info.. figures dont lie yes..i just need your view

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-02-13 23:58 | Report Abuse

Posted by cheoky > Feb 13, 2018 09:37 PM | Report Abuse
Ok with fa. But seems like value traps is ever present in bursa. Plentitude, kfima, bla bla bla....any antidote for value trap? Buy cheap, it can go cheaper, then what?

Yes, FA sometimes got wrong in assessment and got trapped in value trap situations. As I have mentioned, there is no stock God in the world.

To avoid value traps,

1) Avoid sunset industry
2) Do not buy high on cyclical businesses, buy them at the low point instead. Most things are cyclical.
3) Pay attention to management if they are shareholders friendly, credible
4) Look at stability of earnings and cash flows, instead of one time off events
5) Be aware of structural change in the industry
6) etc.

Posted by cheoky > 2018-02-14 00:14 | Report Abuse

Ok ok thx. At least clues.

Posted by gohkimhock > 2018-02-14 00:47 | Report Abuse

As for me, i am 80% FA, 20% TA, 0% BS..

Posted by csl1991 > 2018-02-14 08:59 | Report Abuse

Thanks for your article kcchongnz. Hope you can continue writing and produce articles every now and then for the benefit of everyone in i3.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-02-14 10:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Blue Laser > 2018-02-14 11:52 | Report Abuse

It would seem only 'the old one' possesses business sense, all other investors being deficient in one way or another. That is why he blows his leaky trumpet incessantly; constantly reminding others of his past record founding certain companies ; his stock pick prowess ( only winners featured, losers need not apply ); his philanthropy, his noble intentions and altruism, his desire to leave all wealth to charity when he dies and so on, and so on, ad nauseum. Sounds so fake and con man. He should go read Robert Kuok's memoirs and learn what business sense really is, instead of being fixated on just making more money.

Posted by pjseow > 2018-02-14 12:41 | Report Abuse

While FA and TA has a clear methodology which enable investors to make decisions based on very objective quantitative numbers , " business sense " is more qualitative and judgemental . Good businessmen usually possess such " business sense " and they are the ones who can " see " the futures better than others . Some of these senses cannot be taught . These are the peoples who are more bold and take bigger risks . In return , they are rewarded multiple times more than others . These peoples may also end up badly bitten or even end up in bankruptcy if that sense turn out to be wrong .

Posted by samsambank > 2018-02-14 21:22 | Report Abuse

Hong Kong shares rebound sharply ahead of Lunar New Year holiday | http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/342753

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-02-14 21:30 | Report Abuse

One more major decisive factor is.....

Astrology

The energy of 2018 Earth Dog nourishes and greatly supports the Metal element industries (Earth creates Metal in the productive cycle of five celestiall elements.)

(Generally, Fire element business, e.g. stock markets and entertainment will be able to sustain their growth.

Water element business, e.g. banking & finance will be able to stay afloat with existing prospects.

Wood element business, e.g. agriculture & plantations will have an excellent year )

(AND ALSO........

https://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2017/10/27/stock-market-forecast-2018-2043/ )

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-15 00:01 | Report Abuse

all talk also useless
cannot execute talk no use.

consider the case of the contrarians.....

contrarians make a living out of buying the stuffs TA and FA technicians sell.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-15 00:05 | Report Abuse

this chap can talk well
talk well does not mean can make money
talk not so well does not mean cannot make money

unless it is in the acting business.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-15 00:07 | Report Abuse

its business sense and practise.
practical knowledge beats the talk well chap all the time.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-15 00:09 | Report Abuse

when people can make a killing when right
that is when they have mastered the secrets for success in this game.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-15 00:11 | Report Abuse

makes a killing when right
does not get killed when wrong.

can the talk well chap do that?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-15 00:20 | Report Abuse

if everybody play the market in the same approved manner
all you are left with is a bunch of idiots chasing own shadows...and random returns.

Posted by hstha > 2018-02-15 00:21 | Report Abuse

Today European stocks are extremely bullish! Nasdaq are bullish as well.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-15 00:23 | Report Abuse

analyst...I love the breed called analysts.

they can add one plus one is two

but they are also the lowest form for making money in the stock market.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-15 09:25 | Report Abuse

for God sake, where are all the cowards?

Posted by 3iii > 2018-02-15 10:23 | Report Abuse

>>>>The best business sense approach in investing to date, in my opinion, is those shared by Warren Buffett. He classifies all the companies into Great, Good and Gruesome companies. He strong believes, "It is better to buy a great company at fair price than a fair company at great price." Once you own such a great company, you generally never have to sell it. That is great business sense indeed.
14/02/2018 10:37<<<


For example:

In the glove sector, we have Hartalega, Topglove, Supermax and Comfort.

Hartalega and Topglove would be in the category of great to very good companies.

Supermax and Comfort will probably be in the category of good companies.

If I were to rank these in order of quality of their business and management:

1. Hartalega
2. Topglove
3. Comfort
4. Supermax

Why Supermax is low down this list? It has not shown much revenues and earnings growth over the last 5 years. Its PE is around 17 which seems low relative to its peers.

Those owning Hartalega and Topglove (great to very good companies) at fair prices would be better off in recent years in terms of returns on their investment than owning Supermax at great prices.

"It is better to buy a great company at fair price than a fair company at great price."

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-15 14:05 | Report Abuse

definitely better to buy a great company at higher PE than buy a lousy company at lower PE........

value investors aka low PE fans go fly kites.

business sense first.

in fact for all great investors business sense and big picture comes first.....every thing else go fly kite.''

and cowards, where are you?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-15 14:07 | Report Abuse

why cowards keep deleting my posts....

come out you cowards.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-16 00:00 | Report Abuse

before anyone go off reading charts ( and tea leaves)...
before TA
go read " Fooled by Randomness. "

saves you lots of headaches.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-16 00:03 | Report Abuse

before anyone go off doing FA

note...all great investors use business sense and big picture to guide them before doing their FA.

Posted by jackfruit > 2018-02-16 11:03 | Report Abuse

Stockman already make ton of money by sialang Sendai .....he.. He.. He...
Kong Si Fatt Chai.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-16 12:53 | Report Abuse

jackfruit

great investors makes a killing when right, do not get killed when wrong.

this together with great business sense, no harm will fall on stockman.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-02-16 23:59 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > Feb 15, 2018 12:11 AM | Report Abuse
makes a killing when right
does not get killed when wrong.
can the talk well chap do that?


In investing, I don't have to "kill" people, meaning to make others bankrupt in order to build long-term wealth. Why do you have to do that?

And why do I have to endure the possibility of "being killed" in a fun thing like investing?

I know you have "kill" many by asking them to follow you to sailang Sendaid, and with margin finance, a few months ago when it was trading at RM1.20+.

You said you "not get killed". Not sure about that but at least how injured you are?

Another question is what "killing" have you made recently? Haven't heard anything like that from you.

So no "killing" but got injured and bruise everywhere?

So that was how effective your BS is?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-17 00:55 | Report Abuse

kc

your hero that Warren the Buffalo is not even a free market man.

He is a monopolists, all his major profits comes from monopolistic situations. ....and his sailang all throughout his life. ...starting from sailanging a bankrupt textile company.

People do spend a lot of time talking about TA and FA.

But the real deal comes from more than just stock picking and naming a stock.....

The real deal comes from refining the personality, the strategies employed, how to make a killing when right and avoid being killled when wrong.

In these , the highest aspects of the game....you got nothing to teach and still lots to learn and experience from the super investors.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-17 00:58 | Report Abuse

and stop deleting my posts, you cowards

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-02-17 01:13 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > Feb 17, 2018 12:55 AM | Report Abuse
kc
The real deal comes from refining the personality, the strategies employed, how to make a killing when right and avoid being killled when wrong.
In these , the highest aspects of the game....you got nothing to teach and still lots to learn and experience from the super investors.


Sure, I sure have plenty to learn from super investors. I never stop learning from them. This link shows those I consider as real super investors and what I can learn from them; Warren Buffett, Seth Klarman, Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt etc. They have made billions USD for their investors, and billionaires themselves.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/88007.jsp

I admire them not because they are billionaires, but the right stuff they advocate to the public.

Let see an article by you who your super investors are, and what have they done to deserve that status. A full article please, not just some gibberish BS stuff which no one can understand.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-17 01:36 | Report Abuse

30 years ago, information is hard to get , stock recommendations from analysts even more difficult to get.

today , information and stock broker analysts recommendations are readily available.

in this environment, stock picking and naming of stocks is readily available.

the winning edge is not by being a better FA, TA technician than the professionals......but by learning about the winners mentality, developing personality of a winner, attitudes towards risks, money management skills, portfolio management, risk-rewards

and if you remove the luck element, consistent profits comes from assuming the risks that the market pays you to assume and proven right later.

Super investors, like good businessmen do not run away from risks...they take up the risks that others will pay them to assume and be proven right later.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-02-17 20:34 | Report Abuse

Its knowledge, decisive and bravery.....The personality traits that make the difference.

People....like KCChong and OTB talk about stock selection. I want to talk about the personality traits that make one a successful investor....it is knowledge, decisive and bravery.

Super investor makes a lot of money from his selected stocks. There are indeed tens and hundreds of other stocks that did equally well and even better in recent years...The issue is if one is the in the market and did not benefit, then there is a lot to learn from some one like KYY who actually benefited.

Its not just stocks and naming of stocks. ...it is the whole package deal.

Posted by aiinvestor > 2018-02-17 23:26 | Report Abuse

Wall Street veteran who predicted sell-off says bull market has 'years left'
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/16/wall-street-strategist-jeff-saut-predicts-bull-market-has-years-left.html