kcchongnz blog
FA, TA and the Revolutionary BS kcchongnz
“A Picture Is Worth Ten Thousand Words” An Old Chinese Proverb
This article is about sharing with the principle of sharing is caring. It has nothing against any investing strategy, nor any personality.
Of late in this i3investor website, we often heard of the repeated saying that Fundamental analysis (FA) and Technical analysis (TA) have little use in stock selection, but “business sense” (BS) is the Holy Grail in investing. It is good to have unselfish sharing, without personal agenda, in the public forums. It provides us with alternative views, in my opinion, is very much needed for the investing community.
FA used to be the only investment method since decades ago. When you go to university to study a course in finance and investment, you will only learn about FA. TA, if any, is only mentioned in passing. That has changed as the advent of high-speed computing has made TA easier and more widely available. Many large investment firms are making their trading decisions based on computer algorithms. There have been a boom for companies that manufacture and distribute stock charts and charting software which can produce any conceivable chart one might want to see, for security firms and individuals. Remisiers are attracting more customers with their charting tools and TA and have been making recommendations of stock trading base on that.
In this article, we discuss on the use of FA and TA in stock selection by individuals and market practitioners. We will try to figure out what this new “business sense” selection method is. But be caveat emptor, I am not an expert of TA and this new “business sense”, rather, I know little about them.
Technical Analysis
Technical analysis or charting bases solely on the recent movements of the stock price and volume on the chart to make a buying or selling decision. It suggests to buy if the stock has gone up recently and sell if the price has started to come down. It makes a market timing trading decision basing on the momentum of the stock price and profit form this price movement.
The rationale of the strategy hinges on the human psychology of crowd behavior, that the past behavior of the market players will be repeated in the future. There are various technical systems, trading rules and technical terms used such as the filter system and “stop loss” orders, Moving Average, the Elliot Wave Theory, Relative Strength, Head and Shoulders, flags and pennants, tea-cups, Oscillators, Double or Triple Top Reversal, Channels, Wedges, Diamonds, Doji, Shooting Star, Support and Resistance and numerous other bombastic and hard-to-understand terms.
Chartists are oblivious about earnings, dividends, cash flows, and no worry about the health of the companies the stocks are behind, and the overall economy in general. The founder of TA trading system actually hid himself in a dark room, and only trade basing on the charts and their signals. There are certainly many people who have made a lot of money using TA. You do hear them talking about it in some public forums too, however, many more have lost their entire wealth and fortunes, and even committed suicide. The legendary Jessie Livermore was one of them.
Critics of technical analysis would say that history of stock price cannot tell you how it will behave in the
future. In other words, they claim that the stock price movement is a random walk, that stock price behaves like a drunken soldier, walking aimlessly and unpredictably. In science, it is Brownian motion, the random movement of particles suspended in a fluid resulting from the collisions of molecules. .
Malkiel Burton, a finance professor, in his popular book “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” which is a must to read for all investment students and professionals alike, describe TA as “Strategy of building castles in the air”. According to him, a weak form of random walk theory goes like this:
“The history of stock price movements contains no useful information that will enable an investor consistently to out-perform a buy-and-hold strategy in managing a portfolio.”
According to Malkiel’s research, all of these charting techniques of searching for correlations of past price movements are spurious at best, that charting and stock price movement have no direct causal connection, yet it may be wrongly inferred that they do, due to either coincidence or the presence of a certain third, unseen factor.
In this advance technology age, it is actually very easy to simulate all those trading rules from the past and back test them if following those rules will result in consistent profitable trades. However, it appears that no academic research, nor any rigorous back testing with the huge machine power have shown that there is statistical and economic (when transaction costs are included) significance that any of those rules yield positive results. The stock market has little memory, if any.
Malkiel presented his intuitive arguments that why TA might not work. Firstly it should be noted that the chartist buys in only after price trends have been established, and sell only after they have been broken. Because the sharp reversals in the market can occur suddenly, which we often see, the chartist often misses the boat. Secondly, such techniques, even if they work initially, must ultimately be self-defeating. As more and more people use them, and some traders even tend to anticipate technical signals before they appear to make buy and sell decisions, the value of any technique depreciates. No buy or sell signal can be worthwhile if everyone tries to act on it simultaneously.
However, in the market place, it seems that most participants, including the largest market players, institutional investors, investment bankers, syndicates, etc. are making their trading decisions based on computer algorithms, i.e. TA, as obviously, it is a much easier method to do compared with FA. TA could be the major decision maker now.
Realizing that most remisiers, fund managers and investment bankers are using TA with their huge resources and computer power, not forgetting the rich, syndicates and insiders are everywhere in Bursa who can “paint the tapes”, I stay away from there, as I know I can’t beat them and I play my game in my playing field according to my rules.
This is what John (Jack) Bogle, the founder and retired CEO of The Vanguard Group with the largest exchange traded funds in the US market said regarding the use of TA in market timing:
“In 30 years in this business, I do not know anybody who has done it successfully and consistently, nor anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. Indeed, my impression is that trying to do the market timing is likely, not only not to add value to your investment programme, but to be counterproductive.”
What is Fundamental Analysis?
Fundamental analysis (FA) examines the underlying forces that affect the wellbeing of the economy, industry groups, and the specific companies. It generally employs a top-down approach that starts with the overall economy and then works down from industry groups to specific companies. For the national economy, FA focuses on economic data such as the level of interest rate, monetary and fiscal policies, inflation and growth of GDP etc., to assess the present and future growth of the economy. For the industry, FA examines the supply and demand forces for the products offered. At the company level, FA involves qualitative examination of the moat, the management, business concept and competition. Finally, and inevitably, FA combs through the annual reports and financial data which includes the management actions and discussions, Income statement, balance sheet and cash flows statements for the quantitative analysis of the business.
In essence, FA combines economic, industry, and company and business analysis to determine the industries in general, and in particular the company in the industry to invest in.
The last part of FA, not the least important, involves the quantitative aspects of the business; the proven records of stability of earnings and cash flows, the margins as compared to the industry, the health of the balance sheet, return of capitals etc. After that FA practitioners will carry out some market valuations, and compare with the industry and its peers. Finally, FA practitioners may attempt to derive the stocks’ current or intrinsic value. This, obviously, also has incorporated the growth assumptions of the business. If the stock price is below the estimated intrinsic value, FA practitioners believe that the stock is undervalued, and if there is a wide margin between the stock price and the intrinsic value, FA practitioners will buy the shares and invest in the company, and vice versa.
One of the most obvious, but less tangible, rewards of FA is the development of a thorough understanding of the business through the detail business analysis. After such painstaking research and analysis, an investor will be familiar with the key revenue and profit drivers behind a company. Earnings and earnings expectations can be potent drivers of equity prices.
Sound FA will help identify companies that represent a good value. Some of the real and genuine super investors such as Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Seth Klarman, Mohnish Pabarai, Walter Schloss, Peter Lynch, Howard Marks etc. have earned, and continues to make extra-ordinary returns over a long period of time as shown in this link,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/105247.jsp
FA may offer excellent insights; however, it can be extraordinarily time-consuming, and hence few have patience to learn and practise it, very few. Time-consuming models also often produce valuations that are subjective and contradictory to the current price prevailing in the stock market. However, over the long-term, price general gravitates to its value. One of the important treats a FA practitioner must have is the patience for the long haul, sometimes a lot of patience is needed.
Business Sense
Just wonder what haven’t been covered on the business in FA, or the sense in business in the above.
I try to Goggle what is this strategy of “business sense investing” but to no avail, except the mention of this Golden Rule; that we must look at the business and should invest in a stock if this quarter result is better than the last quarter, and the next quarter must be better than this quarter, and the share price would rise, and continue to rise. Are there statistically significant results in research showing this phenomenon? Can someone provide complete personal records to show statistically significant outcomes, rather than basing on the outcomes of just a few stocks, out of scores of stocks?
Yes, it is unorthodox. It also says that FA (and TA) cannot tell the future profit of the company, which I agree. But can this “business sense” tells the future profit of the company, without uncertainties?
I have written an article discussing about uncertainties of the future using Jaks as an example, “Is Jaks a big fat frog jumping around?” here,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/123266.jsp
The “Golden Rule” is also basing on the reported profit which is also a past event, isn’t that? What makes it different from the conventional FA as described above about dwelling in the past as often criticized by the critics of FA?
However, I do see a big difference between FA and this “business sense investing”, a lot of difference. I have written an article on this “business sense” using EverSendai as an example here,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/134621.jsp
FA does involve a lot more analysis as described above compared to the simplistic “Golden Rule”, although the more analysis doesn’t mean the better, but there seems to be a lot more sense in FA, in my personal opinion, in actually analysing the broad economy, the industry and the company business, more so in comparing the price versus value, than this new “business sense investing” just basing a “Golden Rule”, which results are spurious at best. It also appears that this Golden Rule” must be bent to suit different situations, which makes it hard to be a “Rule”. Well, I guess that is how one can make big money in the stock market.
Conclusions
For me as a FA practitioner, investing is about participating in part of a business with its people, plant and equipment and products and services to sell and make money. I like to follow this principle below:
“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grows. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” – Paul Samuelson
Hence, one should know about the language of business, to read about the economy, the industry and annual reports of the specific company you are interested in, although may not be necessary for all of them, interpret and analysing financial statements and carry out various valuation methods. One should use the various proven successful investment strategies, and last but not least to have a proper mind-set in investing.
There is nothing right or wrong on whatever method one uses which suits him, as long as he can make good returns from the stock market. I wrote this article just for sharing my thoughts. It may be construed as a little “defence” on FA but it has nothing to do with any personality, nor am I against any other investing strategy. Everybody is entitled to have his own opinion.
“All Roads lead to Rome”
Sharing is caring. Like others, I like to share, and hope others can continue to share their thoughts too.
Happy Chinese New Year to everybody. Yam Seng!
K C Chong (ckc13invest@gmail.com)
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Discussions
9 people like this. Showing 50 of 53 comments
The problem with Mr Golden Rule is he doesn't really talk about risks. He will say the banks in China has done their due diligence but he doesn't tell you that the same Banks allow the Sri Lankan Hambantota port to fail so as to further indebt the country to China, allowing China to assert more influence over the country. Mr Golden Rule will only sell you a beautiful picture because it is in his interest to pump his stocks sky high, which offers him the possibility of dumping his stake to people chasing the tooth fairy.
2018-02-13 20:50
Does business/common sense tell us something like....... intensification of steel business currently (rebar) is very energy demanding......
.....hence pretty soon will drive up oil and gas counters again?
2018-02-13 21:05
Ok with fa. But seems like value traps is ever present in bursa. Plentitude, kfima, bla bla bla....any antidote for value trap? Buy cheap, it can go cheaper, then what?
2018-02-13 21:37
Hehe. I bought Plenitude at 3.50 & Kfima at 2.20 about 3 years ago or so. Followed him blindly after enrolling his program and got trapped until today. Nah bu heh
2018-02-13 21:42
Options ( practically ):
a) cautiously trade 'popular/sexy' "growth" stocks which have clear future/prospects thus expensive as these values woild already be reflected in the share price
- TA based
- momentum driven
- time consuming/intensive
- attention demanding
b) patiently invest long in sidelined 'boring' "hopeless" divodend companies which have lost ground against the overall market........considering yourself part owner of the business........hold till perceptions of the value of the companies align with reality
- FA driven
- value driven
- prolonged time frame required
- inattention to short term market noises rather a must
2018-02-13 22:22
A. U get caught chasing high.
B. The value forever unrealized especially in bursa
is there a C path? Go punt 4D better it seems
2018-02-13 22:26
Posted by Invest_Sensibly > Feb 13, 2018 08:37 PM | Report Abuse
How is the performances of your Hevea, Tguan, Kuchai?
This post discussed about FA, TA and BS. Does it discuss about Hevea, Tguan and Kuchai? Okay never mind, here are my response.
I first discussed about Hevea in i3investor on December 8 2013 in the link below,
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_challenge_2013_2h/40360.jsp
The share price was at a preadjusted price 95 sen, or an adjusted price of about 23 sen (please see Yahoo Finance). It went up to a high of closed to RM1.75, or 8 times the price when it was first discussed. It closed at 90 sen today on 13/2/18, down by a lot from its peak. I sold it at RM1.65 exactly 4 months ago on 13/10/2017, as I needed money to buy other stocks. Thanks for your concern.
I mentioned about Thong Guan in the link below,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/104956.jsp
I mentioned that a course participant recommended this stock some time in September 2014. It was selling at an adjusted price of about RM2.15 then. Three and a half years later on today, it closed at RM3.57, still a decent return of 66%, not bad at all. Thanks for your concern too. It actually went up to close to RM5.00 a few months ago. Unfortunately, I did not sell it as I don’t see any fundamental change in its business and its growth story.
I talk about Kuchai as a negative enterprise value investing strategy in the link below four years ago,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/45296.jsp
It was trading at RM1.20 then. I ought some and sold for some profit. Can’t remember how much did I sell.
Today, Kuchai is trading at RM2.15 now. If I were to keep it until today, the profit for this 4 years is 95 sen, or 79%, or a compounded growth of 16%, definitely over-performed the broad market by extremely wide margin.
So, anything wrong with Kuchai? Fundamentally, I see it has improved, improved by a lot more.
2018-02-13 22:37
Dear KCCHONGNZ:Thank you for your Article.
I will be happy if somebody able to discuss how a crisis form and manipulate.
2018-02-13 22:46
Yes, cheoky......
...of only growth stocks keep growing (increasing share price)- bubbling like forever
...and undervalued companies always rise to align with reality
....then 100% traders/investors can be successful
2018-02-13 22:49
Guess the response is charlie munger said anyone who think investing is easy is stupid. Then left only one own self to figure out. Amen
2018-02-13 23:08
Posted by abang_misai > Feb 13, 2018 09:42 PM | Report Abuse
Hehe. I bought Plenitude at 3.50 & Kfima at 2.20 about 3 years ago or so. Followed him blindly after enrolling his program and got trapped until today. Nah bu heh
Nah bu heh? What is that?
Why you so lucky got trapped blindly following me in two stocks I shared in i3investor, when I have shared hundreds? Well, I am not stock God who won't get anything wrong in any shares I wrote. I don't think stock God exists at all in this world.
But Abang, jangan lah tipu helah. You enrolled in my programme and got trapped? I have never recommended in buying Kfima or Plenitude in my stock pick service, have I? They were in my portfolios which I shared in i3investor 5 years ago. With the high dividends received each year,I doubt one loses any money for Kfima. Plenitude, the last I checked, the loss is less than 10%.
So, Abang, why you so unlucky one? Some more telling lies.
By the way, the business of the twp companies have some obvious structural changes. That is part of FA. In FA, investing in a stock doesn't mean you hold it forever, does it?
2018-02-13 23:09
can you comment on PTRANS as i can see both FA and BS for PTRANS is really sexy...check out PTRANS thread for more info.. figures dont lie yes..i just need your view
2018-02-13 23:13
Posted by cheoky > Feb 13, 2018 09:37 PM | Report Abuse
Ok with fa. But seems like value traps is ever present in bursa. Plentitude, kfima, bla bla bla....any antidote for value trap? Buy cheap, it can go cheaper, then what?
Yes, FA sometimes got wrong in assessment and got trapped in value trap situations. As I have mentioned, there is no stock God in the world.
To avoid value traps,
1) Avoid sunset industry
2) Do not buy high on cyclical businesses, buy them at the low point instead. Most things are cyclical.
3) Pay attention to management if they are shareholders friendly, credible
4) Look at stability of earnings and cash flows, instead of one time off events
5) Be aware of structural change in the industry
6) etc.
2018-02-13 23:58
Thanks for your article kcchongnz. Hope you can continue writing and produce articles every now and then for the benefit of everyone in i3.
2018-02-14 08:59
It would seem only 'the old one' possesses business sense, all other investors being deficient in one way or another. That is why he blows his leaky trumpet incessantly; constantly reminding others of his past record founding certain companies ; his stock pick prowess ( only winners featured, losers need not apply ); his philanthropy, his noble intentions and altruism, his desire to leave all wealth to charity when he dies and so on, and so on, ad nauseum. Sounds so fake and con man. He should go read Robert Kuok's memoirs and learn what business sense really is, instead of being fixated on just making more money.
2018-02-14 11:52
While FA and TA has a clear methodology which enable investors to make decisions based on very objective quantitative numbers , " business sense " is more qualitative and judgemental . Good businessmen usually possess such " business sense " and they are the ones who can " see " the futures better than others . Some of these senses cannot be taught . These are the peoples who are more bold and take bigger risks . In return , they are rewarded multiple times more than others . These peoples may also end up badly bitten or even end up in bankruptcy if that sense turn out to be wrong .
2018-02-14 12:41
Hong Kong shares rebound sharply ahead of Lunar New Year holiday | http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/342753
2018-02-14 21:22
One more major decisive factor is.....
Astrology
The energy of 2018 Earth Dog nourishes and greatly supports the Metal element industries (Earth creates Metal in the productive cycle of five celestiall elements.)
(Generally, Fire element business, e.g. stock markets and entertainment will be able to sustain their growth.
Water element business, e.g. banking & finance will be able to stay afloat with existing prospects.
Wood element business, e.g. agriculture & plantations will have an excellent year )
(AND ALSO........
https://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2017/10/27/stock-market-forecast-2018-2043/ )
2018-02-14 21:30
all talk also useless
cannot execute talk no use.
consider the case of the contrarians.....
contrarians make a living out of buying the stuffs TA and FA technicians sell.
2018-02-15 00:01
this chap can talk well
talk well does not mean can make money
talk not so well does not mean cannot make money
unless it is in the acting business.
2018-02-15 00:05
its business sense and practise.
practical knowledge beats the talk well chap all the time.
2018-02-15 00:07
when people can make a killing when right
that is when they have mastered the secrets for success in this game.
2018-02-15 00:09
makes a killing when right
does not get killed when wrong.
can the talk well chap do that?
2018-02-15 00:11
if everybody play the market in the same approved manner
all you are left with is a bunch of idiots chasing own shadows...and random returns.
2018-02-15 00:20
analyst...I love the breed called analysts.
they can add one plus one is two
but they are also the lowest form for making money in the stock market.
2018-02-15 00:23
>>>>The best business sense approach in investing to date, in my opinion, is those shared by Warren Buffett. He classifies all the companies into Great, Good and Gruesome companies. He strong believes, "It is better to buy a great company at fair price than a fair company at great price." Once you own such a great company, you generally never have to sell it. That is great business sense indeed.
14/02/2018 10:37<<<
For example:
In the glove sector, we have Hartalega, Topglove, Supermax and Comfort.
Hartalega and Topglove would be in the category of great to very good companies.
Supermax and Comfort will probably be in the category of good companies.
If I were to rank these in order of quality of their business and management:
1. Hartalega
2. Topglove
3. Comfort
4. Supermax
Why Supermax is low down this list? It has not shown much revenues and earnings growth over the last 5 years. Its PE is around 17 which seems low relative to its peers.
Those owning Hartalega and Topglove (great to very good companies) at fair prices would be better off in recent years in terms of returns on their investment than owning Supermax at great prices.
"It is better to buy a great company at fair price than a fair company at great price."
2018-02-15 10:23
definitely better to buy a great company at higher PE than buy a lousy company at lower PE........
value investors aka low PE fans go fly kites.
business sense first.
in fact for all great investors business sense and big picture comes first.....every thing else go fly kite.''
and cowards, where are you?
2018-02-15 14:05
before anyone go off reading charts ( and tea leaves)...
before TA
go read " Fooled by Randomness. "
saves you lots of headaches.
2018-02-16 00:00
before anyone go off doing FA
note...all great investors use business sense and big picture to guide them before doing their FA.
2018-02-16 00:03
Stockman already make ton of money by sialang Sendai .....he.. He.. He...
Kong Si Fatt Chai.
2018-02-16 11:03
jackfruit
great investors makes a killing when right, do not get killed when wrong.
this together with great business sense, no harm will fall on stockman.
2018-02-16 12:53
Posted by stockmanmy > Feb 15, 2018 12:11 AM | Report Abuse
makes a killing when right
does not get killed when wrong.
can the talk well chap do that?
In investing, I don't have to "kill" people, meaning to make others bankrupt in order to build long-term wealth. Why do you have to do that?
And why do I have to endure the possibility of "being killed" in a fun thing like investing?
I know you have "kill" many by asking them to follow you to sailang Sendaid, and with margin finance, a few months ago when it was trading at RM1.20+.
You said you "not get killed". Not sure about that but at least how injured you are?
Another question is what "killing" have you made recently? Haven't heard anything like that from you.
So no "killing" but got injured and bruise everywhere?
So that was how effective your BS is?
2018-02-16 23:59
kc
your hero that Warren the Buffalo is not even a free market man.
He is a monopolists, all his major profits comes from monopolistic situations. ....and his sailang all throughout his life. ...starting from sailanging a bankrupt textile company.
People do spend a lot of time talking about TA and FA.
But the real deal comes from more than just stock picking and naming a stock.....
The real deal comes from refining the personality, the strategies employed, how to make a killing when right and avoid being killled when wrong.
In these , the highest aspects of the game....you got nothing to teach and still lots to learn and experience from the super investors.
2018-02-17 00:55
Posted by stockmanmy > Feb 17, 2018 12:55 AM | Report Abuse
kc
The real deal comes from refining the personality, the strategies employed, how to make a killing when right and avoid being killled when wrong.
In these , the highest aspects of the game....you got nothing to teach and still lots to learn and experience from the super investors.
Sure, I sure have plenty to learn from super investors. I never stop learning from them. This link shows those I consider as real super investors and what I can learn from them; Warren Buffett, Seth Klarman, Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt etc. They have made billions USD for their investors, and billionaires themselves.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/88007.jsp
I admire them not because they are billionaires, but the right stuff they advocate to the public.
Let see an article by you who your super investors are, and what have they done to deserve that status. A full article please, not just some gibberish BS stuff which no one can understand.
2018-02-17 01:13
30 years ago, information is hard to get , stock recommendations from analysts even more difficult to get.
today , information and stock broker analysts recommendations are readily available.
in this environment, stock picking and naming of stocks is readily available.
the winning edge is not by being a better FA, TA technician than the professionals......but by learning about the winners mentality, developing personality of a winner, attitudes towards risks, money management skills, portfolio management, risk-rewards
and if you remove the luck element, consistent profits comes from assuming the risks that the market pays you to assume and proven right later.
Super investors, like good businessmen do not run away from risks...they take up the risks that others will pay them to assume and be proven right later.
2018-02-17 01:36
Its knowledge, decisive and bravery.....The personality traits that make the difference.
People....like KCChong and OTB talk about stock selection. I want to talk about the personality traits that make one a successful investor....it is knowledge, decisive and bravery.
Super investor makes a lot of money from his selected stocks. There are indeed tens and hundreds of other stocks that did equally well and even better in recent years...The issue is if one is the in the market and did not benefit, then there is a lot to learn from some one like KYY who actually benefited.
Its not just stocks and naming of stocks. ...it is the whole package deal.
2018-02-17 20:34
Wall Street veteran who predicted sell-off says bull market has 'years left'
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/16/wall-street-strategist-jeff-saut-predicts-bull-market-has-years-left.html
2018-02-17 23:26
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Invest_Sensibly
How is the performances of your Hevea, Tguan, Kuchai?
2018-02-13 20:37