Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-10 14:43 | Report Abuse

For the fourth article above, the author just plucked a figure from the sky; a target price of RM6.00 for HY. I guess the writer must be practising some kind of Voodoo! I don’t know anything about black magic, and hence can’t comment anything on it. RIGHT COMMENT IF NO FACT & FIGURES U NO WAY GET IT RIGHT LOH..!!

The incredible share price movement of HY
The fifth article above discussed the fast and furious share price movement of HY recently, and that it created history in Bursa. The share price movement of HY indeed has been very interesting. I have been contemplating to write a follow-up article to discuss about how not to be “killed” in the stock market after my last article three weeks ago, titled “The “Killers” and the “Slaughtered lambs” in the stock market” in the link below,
THIS RAIDER SAY WRONG ON KC, SLAUGHTER ? NOT REALLY LOH....!! LIKE WARREN BUFFET SAYS BIG MAC SELL FOR RM 14.00, IF GOT OPPORTUNITY TO BUY LOWER AT RM 8.00, R U REALLY SLAUGHTERED ?? NO....IT IS OPPORTUNITY LOH...!!
PROVIDED U GOT UR VALUATION RIGHT LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-10 14:56 | Report Abuse

The share price of HY rose steadily from RM2.00 in less than one year ago to its intraday peak of more than RM19 at the beginning of January 2018, for a gain of 850% in a year! It also could drop from RM19 to RM12, for a loss of 37%, and from RM15 to RM8.20, for a loss of 45%, both within a few days.

A year ago, there was little discussions about HY in i3investor until its share price rose to about RM8.00 in August last year, when the activities in the HY thread heightened.

There were a number of tailwinds for the business of HY, among them,

Rise of crude oil price resulting in
Rising margin of refining works, widening of crack spread
Gain in inventories, due to the First-in-first-out (FIFO) inventories accounting, a non-cash item which can be a big number for HY
Increased demand following unplanned production outages caused by the hurricane in Gulf of Mexico, and a fire incidence in a world-scale European refinery.
Tax credits in the previous quarters, and hence higher bottom line.
Gain in foreign exchange

Note the above are all one-time-off items which are unlikely to repeat. In fact, they may reverse, for example drop in crude oil price resulting in inventories loss, huge capital expenses, reverse in foreign exchange rate, exhaustion of tax credit etc.
AGAIN KC GOT MOST THING RIGHT BUT HE GET ONE MOST IMPORTANT MAJOR POINT ON REFINING MARGIN WRONG LOH....!!
THE STRONG REFINING MARGIN IS RISING AND SUSTAINING AT AROUND USD 8 PER BARREL, THAT SHOULD SUPPORT EPS OF HENGYUAN EXCEED RM 2.00 PER SHARE LOH...!!
ALSO THE CASHFLOW OF HENGYUAN AROUND OF RM 4.00 PER SHARE IS TREMENDOUS MAH..!!
U CAN NEVER FIND ANOTHER CO TRADING BELOW RM 10.00 WITH FREECASHFLOW OF RM 4.00 PER SHARE LOH.....!!

I know a group of FA investors who have capitalized the above and started to invest in HY when it was trading at a few Ringgit a piece. Many of them are savvy investors who were aware of the tailwinds above and could carry out analysis on their own and were right in the outcome. Many have made a “killing” investing in HY when it was cheap.
THIS OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE MONIES, BEN GRAHAM ADVOCATE BUY WHEN THERE IS BIG OPPORTUNITY WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!

I also read about a BS speculator who had bought loads of HY at a few Ringgit a piece. With the collaboration of some other FA investors and also momentum players and writing articles after articles singing the song that HY was the stock of the century, and for long-term, and with all the euphoria, the share price of HY shot up like a “missile” from RM8.00 to RM19.00 within two months. Even at its peak price, articles after articles were published to help retail investors to make money, to buy HY shares. Anyone who had sold HY shares, even at RM17 somewhere in January was branded as foolish.
IT MAKE BE TRUE HENGYUAN MOVE UP TOO FAST FROM RM 2.00 TO RM 19.00 IN LESS THAN 1 YR....BUT THE GAIN IS SUPPORTED BY STRONG CASHFLOW AND EARNINGS LEH ??
THE ANS; IS YES LOH.....!!

“Only very few humble investors who can control their emotion of fear to think logically, would dare to admit their mistake and buy back at higher prices.” ASK YOURSELF HENGYUAN IS REALLY GORENG STOCK LIKE WHAT KC SAYS LEH ??
THE ANS IS NO LOH....!! THE CASHFLOW AND EPS RM 4.00 PER SHARE AND RM 3.03 SUPPORTED THE UPSIDE SHARE PRICE MAH...!!
The music never stopped and everybody was making lorry loads of profit, and laughing to the banks, everybody, including monkeys.

Finally, trees don’t grow to sky. Even with the fantastic results published recently, the share price of HY plunged to a low of about RM8.20 yesterday. There was blood all over the street.
THE PICTURE PAINTED BY KC IS UNFAIR AND NOT LEARNED...IT LIKE AHMOI AND AHFAH HAVING DISCUSSION IN PUDU MARKET LOH.....!!

Posted by gohkimhock > 2018-03-10 15:07 | Report Abuse

@raider, you still haven't sell your HY?

Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-10 15:08 | Report Abuse

HENGYUAN FACE SETBACK WITH Q4 BELOW EXPECTATION LOH....!!

Here came the top article for a few days in i3investor, the first article above, and the most “inspiring”, “motivating” and “glorious” one, “Hengyuan, a blessing in disguise” from someone who has consistently making huge amount of money from the stock market, in months.

Some people are really blessed. Anything they touch, it turns to gold. Not only that, God also helps them to make use of other people’s money (OPM) to make more money, hundreds of millions. It is fantastic, and incredible.

Oh, oh, they are so good in stock picking, so rich, respect, reespect!
They are also the chosen lot, always able to buy and sell at the right time and make humongous profit and laughing all the way to the banks, all the time. In HY’s case, imagine using RM100m own money and borrow RM100m from the banks and bought 20 million shares at an average price of say RM10, and sold them at an average price of say RM18, the profit would be RM160m, in one share and within a few months! Some of them openly boast around about their prowess in this game.
BASED ON RAIDER ANALYSIS OF THE REGISTER KYY & FAMILY HAS NEVER OWN MORE THAN 6M HENGYUAN SHARE, KYY CLAIM IS EXAGGERATED BUT HE REALLY MAKE MONIES, THE REAL AMOUNT HIS WIN CLAIM IS OVERSTATED FOR THE PURPOSE OF BOAST LOH...!!

“GOD works in mysterious ways to help those kind hearted who needed help.”

God is really busy all the time helping everybody in all kinds of things, including making money, big money, in the stock market. God has no time to do any other thing.

This money-making prowess by using OPM is “inspiring”, and “motivating”. They always make a lot of money from OPM in the stock market. Never before they have lost any money investing in any stock. It is truly incredible. Of course, with God’s help, there are always miracles.

But wait a minute. Where has this RM160m come from? Falling from the sky?
Anyone got “killed”? Why would God want to see those poor, under-privileged and naïve got “killed”?
If you got “killed”, can you blame anybody? I don’t think so. You have to take responsibility of your own action, as they have already told you, they can ask you to buy, and you buy at your own risk, and if they want to sell, they are not obliged to tell you.

God is not going to help you as you are speculating in the stock market. God only helps those chosen speculators who would make hundreds of million in share trading profit, not you. Of course not. How much do you have to invest?
If you got “killed”. Do you want to have the same experience again in the future?

That is the gist of the second article above, “Hengyuan - No Doom For 2018”.
The writer of the above article has gone into details on the business of HY, and its valuation. It is hard to find this type of article.

IT POINTS TO KYY INCONSISTENT AS A FUNDAMENTAL INVESTORS LOH....!!
HE IS MERE A SPECULATOR WILLING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF GENERAL NAIVE INVESTORS LOH....!!
A POINT OF CAUTION : MOST INVESTORS IF U FOLLOW KYY U NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS LOH.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-10 15:26 | Report Abuse

Fundamental analysis of HY

As a fundamental investor, I find the second article above most informative and reliable if I were to consider investing in HY. It involves looking at its business, a real BS. It estimates its bottom line in details from its top line base on the present information and what the expected in the next one year, and translate it into earnings per share, EPS.
Base on the EPS estimated, the author has tabulated the prospective price of HY with various price-to-earnings ratio, PE as shown in the table below.

RAIDER SAY YES PE IS ONE METHOD TO IDENTIFY OPPORTUNITY, BUT U NEED TO FURTHER INVESTIGATE IS IT REALLY OPPORTUNITY BUT DO NOT BELITTLE IT LOH...!!
From the table above, if the market gives a PE ratio of 6, HY should worth RM14.40 to RM16.30. At RM9.22 now, there seems to be plenty of upside for HY. What if the PE is 10? Fat tat loh!

So far so good, except that the denominator used, E, is an accounting number, or accounting net profit. In this E, it is made up all kinds of stuff; foreign exchange gains due to restructuring of the foreign loans, tax saving from reinvestments, “other operating gains”, “other income”, many of them are just one-time-off and non-cash items.
Here are some explanations on the pitfall of using accounting E, and its associated PE ratio,
AS RAIDER SAYS A SUSTAINABLE EPS EXCEEDING RM 2.00 IS FAIR FOR HENGYUAN LOH...!!
IF VALUATION IS RM 22.00 TO RM 42.00 BUT IF SHARE PRICE IS BELOW RM 10.00 , THIS MEANS FAT OPPORTUNITY LOH....!

SAVVY INVESTMENT SUPPOSE TO BE THIS WAY WITH BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH..!!
It would be more appropriate if the author can use a normalized EPS, i.e. to strip off all those non-cash and non-operating one-time-off items and cyclicals from the E, and not just one-year E.

IF U ASK FUTURE CASHFLOW AND EARNINGS NO ONE CAN ANS U LOH...!!
U NEED TO GUESS WHICH IS ESTIMATE AND THERE IS PROBABILITY U MAY GET IT WRONG LOH..!! RAIDER SAYS EVEN INSIDER MAY GET IT WRONG LOH...!!
What is the actual cash received? More importantly, after capital expenses, what is the future free cash flows from this business?
“The theory of investment value” suggests that the value of a stock is worth all the future cash flows expected to be generated by the firm, discounted by an appropriate risk-adjusted rate.

THE KEY HERE IS HENGYUAN CASHFLOW IS RM 4.00 PER SHARE FOR 2017 AND EPS IS RM 3.03 AND NOW SHARE PRICE IS RM 9.57,NOW IS THIS OPPORTUNITY LEH ?
The more appropriate comparison is its price versus its value, rather than its price versus earnings.
Well, I am not saying what has done by the author is wrong, but surely there are other points to ponder about, or else HY would not be trading at RM9.22 now with a PE of less than 4.

RAIDER SAY GIVEN THAT, IF WE DISCOUNT THE CASHFLOW BY 50% TO FREECASH PER SHARE OF RM 2.00, AT HENGYUAN SHARE PRICE OF RM 9.57 IT IS BIG UNDERVALUE LOH...!!

REMEMBER NESTLE FREECASH FLOW IS TRADING AT 50X WHEREAS HENGYUAN TRADE BELOW 5X, LET START INVESTIGATING THE POTENTIAL UNDERVALUATION OPPORTUNITY LOH...!!

THE TP OF RM 22.00 TO RM 42.00 IS NOT TOO FAR FETCHED LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-10 15:36 | Report Abuse

Conclusions

HY is truly the hottest stock in i3investor, monopolizing the top five articles in i3investor. There were many who made money by discovering it early in a year ago by analyzing its business and the prospects, and its value. Some, but very few also made money, in fact big money, speculating and even manipulating the sentiments of the masses in its share price movement. However, money won’t drop from the sky; some win (killers) and some (those killed) will lose. It is a zero-sum game as far as its speculative share price movement recently is concerned. Many uninformed lost their pants chasing the share when it was selling at or close to its peak, many with margin financing.
THIS RAIDER SAYS KC CONCLUSION ON HENGYUAN ALL WRONG LOH....!!
MOST DUMB DUMB HOLD INVESTORS MAKE MONIES....BUT THEY HAVE MAKE MUCH LESS NOW LOH....!!

THE MONEY MAKING QUESTION IS SHOULD U BUY MORE HENGYUAN NOW, WHEN IT IS BELOW RM 10.00 LEH ??
RAIDER SAYS YES LOH....FOR EXAMPLE AHFAH FROM PUDU MARKET HAS STARTED BUYING AT RM 9.00 LOH....!!

THIS RAIDER AGREE LOH...!! U MUST ARM YOURSELF WITH KNOWLEDGE LOH...!!
IF U R UNABLE TO DO THAT, THEN U MUST FOLLOW SOME ONE U CAN TRUST, LIKE AHFAH TRUST GENERAL RAIDER LOH...!!
IF U CANNOT FIND THE TRUST WORTHY PERSON, THEN U BETTER DON INVEST BLINDLY LOH;
There is only one person you can depend on in order not to be “killed” in the speculative stock market, that is you. You must treat buying a stock as investing in part of a business for the long haul, rather than following the greater fool theory. You must arm yourselves with the knowledge of a business, how it makes money? Is it making good money? Is the money making consistent, etc. More importantly, one must know the price versus its value.

A WORD OF CAUTIOUN, EVEN IF U R THE WORLD GREATEST INVESTOR LIKE WARREN BUFFET, U MAY STILL LOSE IF U SPECULATE SHORT TERM IN THE MARKET LOH...!!
WARREN BUFFET HAD ADVICE MANY TIME, ALWAYS INVEST LONG TERM LOH...!!
BCOS SHORT TERM IS JUST A VOTING MACHINE LOH....!!
ON CERTAIN OCASSION W.BUFFET ALSO LOSE SHORT TERM LOH...!!
There are many resources around to acquire this knowledge; from books, and even free from the internet. All is required is commitment, time and effort.
Avoid being “killed” in the stock market is more important option for your financial wellbeing, as any other option will be better.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-03-10 17:08 | Report Abuse

Raider,

Please note that when I said some people got slaughtered, it was not referring to you, or some others who have bought HY below RM10, or even much cheaper. I am talking about in general.

Look at the chart when the share price of HY when it was during the euphoria when it was chased up to RM19 with many articles and countless promotion in HY's thread, the spike of activities at the height around RM19, and sharp correction to RM12, and then another sharp correction to RM8+, the frenzy buying and selling, and the boasting about exaggerated return with margin finance, and you tell me nobody got "killed"?

Where did the gain of RM100+m come from? From the sky?

Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-10 17:13 | Report Abuse

ur boss exaggerated his return loh....!!
Raider estimates the most kyy make is around Rm 12 to rm 16m since his cost is much higher and start to sell much earlier loh...!!

most of the caught at Rm 17 above...are greedy instituition...not ikan bilis mah...!!


Posted by kcchongnz > Mar 10, 2018 05:08 PM | Report Abuse

Raider,

Please note that when I said some people got slaughtered, it was not referring to you, or some others who have bought HY below RM10, or even much cheaper. I am talking about in general.

Look at the chart when the share price of HY when it was during the euphoria when it was chased up to RM19 with many articles and countless promotion in HY's thread, the spike of activities at the height around RM19, and sharp correction to RM12, and then another sharp correction to RM8+, the frenzy buying and selling, and the boasting about exaggerated return with margin finance, and you tell me nobody got "killed"?

Where did the gain of RM100+m come from? From the sky?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-03-10 17:19 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockraider > Mar 10, 2018 02:56 PM | Report Abuse
ASK YOURSELF HENGYUAN IS REALLY GORENG STOCK LIKE WHAT KC SAYS LEH ??
THE ANS IS NO LOH....!! THE CASHFLOW AND EPS RM 4.00 PER SHARE AND RM 3.03 SUPPORTED THE UPSIDE SHARE PRICE MAH...!!

I don't think I said HY is a goreng stock. But the share price behaviour of HY in the couple of months certainly shows that HY was being "gorenged", and "gorenged" heavily.

I look at investing in different way than you do, and I am not saying my view is more superior than yours.

I have mentioned EPS, basing on one year results and with some non-recurring items, is not a good measure of value.

Cash flows and free cash flows suffer the same faith, or even more if basing on a single year number, as cash flows which involves change in working capital from one year to another, and more so free cash flows, when capital expenses are concerned, are very lumpy. A minimum of 3-5 years has to be taken into account.

Posted by Jason33 > 2018-03-10 17:22 | Report Abuse

no way, it was ikan bilis who get burned the most. institution won't be that stupid. If institution want to buy, the price won't go up.

"most of the caught at Rm 17 above...are greedy instituition...not ikan bilis mah...!!"

Posted by probability > 2018-03-10 17:32 | Report Abuse

above 17 it was only for few days...till news came out saying over bought..

by the way...what had happened to HY now... to say institution wont be that stupid'"

why is it stupid?


Posted by Jason33 > Mar 10, 2018 05:22 PM | Report Abuse

no way, it was ikan bilis who get burned the most. institution won't be that stupid. If institution want to buy, the price won't go up.

"most of the caught at Rm 17 above...are greedy instituition...not ikan bilis mah...!!"

Posted by probability > 2018-03-10 17:37 | Report Abuse

Jason,

stupid because buying "'in a manner it was going up fast from 17..and not slowly"..or stupid because buying above 17 itself?

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-10 17:46 | Report Abuse

Again we see your obsession with the share price of 1 O&G stock over the period of 2 months.

There were other O&G counters with super-charged price movements.

1) Sapura from 67c - RM1 (took 3 days) ~ 50% jump in 3 days
2) UMW O&G 29c - 48c ~65% in 12 days

Non O&G

- Toyo Ink -WA that jumped from 0.005c to 22c ~4300% in 2 days

Why? Why does HY bother you so much? Its in investible security. Pays a dividend.
Its not a scam. Its a refiner.

If you want to talk about killers/scammers, may I suggest

1) Bitconnect
2) Gennevva Gold
3) ATLANTIC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT
(How to Get 4% to 6% Return On Investment (ROI) Every Friday)

Basically if a share price doesn't move according to Tan Sri KCChongnz analysis,
oh boy, we won't here the end of it huh...

....

Posted by kcchongnz > Mar 10, 2018 05:19 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by stockraider > Mar 10, 2018 02:56 PM | Report Abuse
ASK YOURSELF HENGYUAN IS REALLY GORENG STOCK LIKE WHAT KC SAYS LEH ??
THE ANS IS NO LOH....!! THE CASHFLOW AND EPS RM 4.00 PER SHARE AND RM 3.03 SUPPORTED THE UPSIDE SHARE PRICE MAH...!!

I don't think I said HY is a goreng stock. But the share price behaviour of HY in the couple of months certainly shows that HY was being "gorenged", and "gorenged" heavily.

Posted by Cockrider > 2018-03-10 17:50 | Report Abuse

RAIDER BET WITH U BY...END 31-12-2017....EVERGREEN WILL BE ABOVE RM 1.OO LOH...!!

U DARE BET OR NOT ??

OVER BET WILL NOT BE SO SILLY...LIKE DISAPPEAR FROM I3...MAYBE WE START WITH A BET OF RM 100K LOH....!!

IF AGREE WE BOTH DEPOSIT RM 100K WITH THE LAWYER LOH..!! OK ??

Posted by Cockrider > 2018-03-10 17:51 | Report Abuse

U MUST UNDERSTAND MAH....!!
ALOT OF PEOPLE BUY INTO BJC RM 0.50 & ABOVE, STUCKED FOR MANY YEARS & WANT TO URGENTLY TO GET OUT LOH...!!
THATS WHY THERE ARE MANY SELLERS BUT IT CLEARING LOH...!!

MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT CONSIST OF VALUATION BASE ON EARNINGS BASIS AND BASED ON ASSETS BASIS LOH...!!

ONCE ALL SELLER SUPPLIES IS TAKEN OUT IT CAN FLY LOH....!!
THATS WHY DRB FLY LOH...!!

ALSO MUCH REMEMBER YESTERDAY THE STOCK SHOW NEGATIVE EPS, TODAY AND FUTURE, IT MAY SHOW STRONG EARNINGS TOO LOH...!!

U NEED TO IDENTIFY THIS KIND OF STOCK LOH....!!

BJC IS THIS KIND OF STOCK BASED ON RAIDER RESEARCH LOH...!!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-03-10 17:54 | Report Abuse

Posted by arv18 > Mar 10, 2018 05:46 PM | Report Abuse
Again we see your obsession with the share price of 1 O&G stock over the period of 2 months.
Basically if a share price doesn't move according to Tan Sri KCChongnz analysis,
oh boy, we won't here the end of it huh...


Obsession? You sure understand what the word means?

This is the only article I have written on HY, out of 300+ articles.


Or are you too obsessed that you cannot stand me telling the newbies to be careful of the stock market? And why?

I wish to read one of your sharing in i3invstor, and see what you have to offer, please!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-03-10 17:58 | Report Abuse

Posted by arv18 > Mar 10, 2018 05:46 PM | Report Abuse

Why? Why does HY bother you so much? Its in investible security. Pays a dividend.
Its not a scam. Its a refiner.


Did I say HY bothers me? Where?

I made money from HY, twice, never lost once. My friends made a lot of money from it.

What did I do to angrify you? Just because I share what I think?

Posted by myongcc5 > 2018-03-10 18:01 | Report Abuse

80% here is not so smart, cant catch what KC meant!!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-03-10 18:11 | Report Abuse

Posted by myongcc5 > Mar 10, 2018 06:01 PM | Report Abuse
80% here is not so smart, cant catch what KC meant!!


Just like this one below. Simply can't understand what I wrote in simple English and simply throw tantrums like a little baby.


Posted by arv18 > Mar 10, 2018 05:46 PM | Report Abuse

Again we see your obsession with the share price of 1 O&G stock over the period of 2 months.
- Toyo Ink -WA that jumped from 0.005c to 22c ~4300% in 2 days
Why? Why does HY bother you so much? Its in investible security. Pays a dividend.
Its not a scam. Its a refiner.
Basically if a share price doesn't move according to Tan Sri KCChongnz analysis,
oh boy, we won't here the end of it huh...

Posted by myongcc5 > 2018-03-10 18:17 | Report Abuse

KC, u r good, as fr me, I will not answer idiotic comments!
Anyway, u hv good intention! GBU always

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-10 18:19 | Report Abuse

whatever tan sri. keep deflecting. you're fooling no one.



Posted by myongcc5 > Mar 10, 2018 06:01 PM | Report Abuse
80% here is not so smart, cant catch what KC meant!!

Just like this one below. Simply can't understand what I wrote in simple English and simply throw tantrums like a little baby.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-03-10 18:45 | Report Abuse

Posted by myongcc5 > Mar 10, 2018 06:17 PM | Report Abuse

KC, fr me, I will not answer idiotic comments!
Anyway, u hv good intention! GBU always


Thank you very much. You are right. This keeps me carry on sharing.

Oh yeah, I remember someone here mentioned about "troll" before. Now I understand what it means.

Posted by ozzie75 > 2018-03-10 18:54 | Report Abuse

Thank you for the alternative insight, kcchongnz.

Posted by klee > 2018-03-10 19:06 | Report Abuse

Arv18,you sounded like a smart ass.Where are your i3 records?

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-10 19:14 | Report Abuse

I'm sick of hearing you go on and on about HY. thats all. If you want to discuss stock manipulation etc, , make it a wide ranging topic.

You've also failed to investigate claims of a certain inidividual. If this person really did invest in HY at ~ 100 mil level, how is it that a

1) Substantial Shareholder declaration was never filed?

2) If said individual controls < than 5% outstanding shares, is it possible to move the MCAP
of HY from RM2.8 Bil - RM5.6 Billion?

3) With so many other sharp price movements, from Pansar, UMWOG, Yoyoink, Caely, Notion Vtec etc why focus on just this counter?

Again. stop deflecting. Trolling is what YOU'RE doing, publishing this nonsense article.


Posted by myongcc5 > Mar 10, 2018 06:17 PM | Report Abuse
KC, fr me, I will not answer idiotic comments!
Anyway, u hv good intention! GBU always

Thank you very much. You are right. This keeps me carry on sharing.

Oh yeah, I remember someone here mentioned about "troll" before. Now I understand what it means.

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-10 19:26 | Report Abuse

At the end of the day, who really gies a damn about a Large Cap counter moving up from RM8- RM19?

Nestle just went from RM100 - RM145.

Are you going to write an essay about that?

Why is Public Bank only trading at a PE 15?

So many mysteries....

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-03-10 19:30 | Report Abuse

Let me answer your questions one by one.
arv18 I'm sick of hearing you go on and on about HY. thats all. If you want to discuss stock manipulation etc, , make it a wide ranging topic.
ME: IS MY ARTICLE ABOUT STOCK MANIPULATION, OR IS IT A WIDE RANGE OF TOPICS? HAVE YOU READ MY ARTICLE AND MORE IMPORTANT, UNDERSTAND WHAT HAVE BEEN CONVETYED?

You've also failed to investigate claims of a certain inidividual. If this person really did invest in HY at ~ 100 mil level, how is it that a

ME: WHY DO I HAVE TO “INVESTIGATE” THAT? I AM NOT A PRIVATE INVESTIGATOR, AND FOR WHAT?

1) Substantial Shareholder declaration was never filed?
ME: DID I SAY ANYONE A SUBSTANTIAL HOLDER OF HY IN MY ARTICLE?

2) If said individual controls < than 5% outstanding shares, is it possible to move the MCAP
of HY from RM2.8 Bil - RM5.6 Billion?
ME: DID I SAY A CERTA INDIVIDUAL THE SOLE PERSON WHO MOVES THE SHARES?

3) With so many other sharp price movements, from Pansar, UMWOG, Yoyoink, Caely, Notion Vtec etc why focus on just this counter?
ME: WHY WOULD I WANT TO TALK ABOUT OTHERS SHARES MENTIONED WHICH I NEVER FOLLOW THEIR PRICE MOVEMENT? NOTHING ELSE TO DO?

Again. stop deflecting. Trolling is what YOU'RE doing, publishing this nonsense article.

ME: WE CAN PUT IN A VOTE HERE TO SEE WHO IS A TROLL, YOU OR ME?
PLEASE READ THROUGH ALL THE COMMENTS TO SEE THE CONSENSUS IF IT IS A NONSENSE ARTICLE.

INSTEAD OF THROWING YOUR TANTRUM ON ME, WHY SHARE SOMETHING, WRITE AN ARTICLE, RECOMMEND A SHARE WITH YOUR THESIS ETC. TO SHOW ME HOW GOOD YOU ARE?

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-10 19:33 | Report Abuse

Calm down and have a bloody beer or something... jeez.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-03-10 19:34 | Report Abuse

Posted by arv18 > Mar 10, 2018 07:26 PM | Report Abuse
At the end of the day, who really gies a damn about a Large Cap counter moving up from RM8- RM19?
Nestle just went from RM100 - RM145.
Are you going to write an essay about that?
Why is Public Bank only trading at a PE 15?
So many mysteries....


If I, or somebody else writes an article about the above, or any misery of investing how does it offend you?

What is not a nonsensical article?

Can you write one and show us?

Have you written one?

Posted by klee > 2018-03-10 19:36 | Report Abuse

This is what i am saying arv18.Even pasar malam vendors can talk cock and criticize everyone and everything.

ME: WE CAN PUT IN A VOTE HERE TO SEE WHO IS A TROLL, YOU OR ME?
PLEASE READ THROUGH ALL THE COMMENTS TO SEE THE CONSENSUS IF IT IS A NONSENSE ARTICLE.

INSTEAD OF THROWING YOUR TANTRUM ON ME, WHY SHARE SOMETHING, WRITE AN ARTICLE, RECOMMEND A SHARE WITH YOUR THESIS ETC. TO SHOW ME HOW GOOD YOU ARE?

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-10 20:03 | Report Abuse

I'm not offended. Or angry. Just sick of seeing more crap on HY, thats all.

I don't pretend to know how everything in the market works.

But I do know stock promotion has a much bigger part to play than TA or FA.

Everyone does it. Sell-side analysts. Boiler Rooms. Yourself included.

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-10 20:20 | Report Abuse

To my mind, without anyone controlling a substantial portion of the shares,

Only someone looking to build a new cornerstone holding like LTAT, KWSP etc

Mutual Funds

or the Investment Banks

would be able to move the stock this much this quickly. But does it really matter?

The story has yet to be written. For all we know, the stock price recovers to above RM18
in the next 12 months.

Posted by soojinhou > 2018-03-10 20:20 | Report Abuse

2) If said individual controls < than 5% outstanding shares, is it possible to move the MCAP

arv18, actually, your question reflects poor understanding of the stock market. In any given trading day, the amount of shares traded is just a tiny fraction of the total amount of share in issue. As a result of that, market cap can be pushed up and down fairly easily, and can definitely be done with less than 5% shares as long as trades are carried out aggressively. That's why, attention grabbing headlines like how many billions was lost in a day are actually quite a common occurrence because the small fraction of transactions compared to the entire share capital actually have an extraordinary impact on market capitalisation.

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-10 20:24 | Report Abuse

soojinhou .. thanks. maybe i do have a poor understanding.

but isn't it a bit premature to write of HengYuan? Its a very large company.

This isn't a sendai, focus lumber, etc

Another point: Couldn't proprietry short selling also cause a drastic drop in share price?

Posted by soojinhou > 2018-03-10 20:28 | Report Abuse

I'm not here to dissect share price movement. I'm just pointing out to you that market capitalisation can indeed swing wildly based on small number of trades, because the total number of shares involved in any given day is only a small fraction of the entire share capital of the company.

Posted by lizi > 2018-03-10 20:41 | Report Abuse

arv18, you still have a lot hy?

Posted by arv18 > Mar 10, 2018 08:24 PM | Report Abuse

soojinhou .. thanks. maybe i do have a poor understanding.

but isn't it a bit premature to write of HengYuan? Its a very large company.

This isn't a sendai, focus lumber, etc

Another point: Couldn't proprietry short selling also cause a drastic drop in share price?

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-10 21:24 | Report Abuse

no man. not invested in HY. money in other counters.

watching, and considering an entry over the next 3 months.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-11 00:18 | Report Abuse

NO WONDER U CALL YOURSELF COCKRIDER, U EXIST TO IDENTIFY COCK & RIDE IT LOH...!!

LETS BE POSITIVE LOOK AT THE POSITIVE SIDE OF HENGYUAN, INSTEAD OF SEACHING FOR COCK STORIES LOH...!!

Posted by Cockrider > Mar 10, 2018 05:50 PM | Report Abuse

RAIDER BET WITH U BY...END 31-12-2017....EVERGREEN WILL BE ABOVE RM 1.OO LOH...!!

U DARE BET OR NOT ??

OVER BET WILL NOT BE SO SILLY...LIKE DISAPPEAR FROM I3...MAYBE WE START WITH A BET OF RM 100K LOH....!!

IF AGREE WE BOTH DEPOSIT RM 100K WITH THE LAWYER LOH..!! OK ??


Cockrider
33 posts
Posted by Cockrider > Mar 10, 2018 05:51 PM | Report Abuse

U MUST UNDERSTAND MAH....!!
ALOT OF PEOPLE BUY INTO BJC RM 0.50 & ABOVE, STUCKED FOR MANY YEARS & WANT TO URGENTLY TO GET OUT LOH...!!
THATS WHY THERE ARE MANY SELLERS BUT IT CLEARING LOH...!!

MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT CONSIST OF VALUATION BASE ON EARNINGS BASIS AND BASED ON ASSETS BASIS LOH...!!

ONCE ALL SELLER SUPPLIES IS TAKEN OUT IT CAN FLY LOH....!!
THATS WHY DRB FLY LOH...!!

ALSO MUCH REMEMBER YESTERDAY THE STOCK SHOW NEGATIVE EPS, TODAY AND FUTURE, IT MAY SHOW STRONG EARNINGS TOO LOH...!!

U NEED TO IDENTIFY THIS KIND OF STOCK LOH....!!

BJC IS THIS KIND OF STOCK BASED ON RAIDER RESEARCH LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-11 00:25 | Report Abuse

HOW CAN U SAY LIKE THAT WHEN THE CASHFLOW PER SHARE IS RM 4.00 PER SHARE AND EPS IS RM 3.03 LEH ??

I don't think I said HY is a goreng stock. But the share price behaviour of HY in the couple of months certainly shows that HY was being "gorenged", and "gorenged" heavily.

I look at investing in different way than you do, and I am not saying my view is more superior than yours.

I have mentioned EPS, basing on one year results and with some non-recurring items, is not a good measure of value.

Cash flows and free cash flows suffer the same faith, or even more if basing on a single year number, as cash flows which involves change in working capital from one year to another, and more so free cash flows, when capital expenses are concerned, are very lumpy. A minimum of 3-5 years has to be taken into account.

GIVEN THAT IF U THINK THERE IS EXCEPTIONAL ITEM, WOULD IT MORE BE PRODUCTIVE U FIND OUT AND ADJUST FOR IT AND MAKE ANALYSIS BASED ON ITS ADJUSTED EARNINGS LEH ??

SURELY IF U HAVE DONE THAT RAIDER WILL HAVE LESS POINTS TO FEEL UR ANALYSIS IS INCOMPLETE LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-11 00:27 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockraider > Mar 10, 2018 11:43 PM | Report Abuse X

Your analysis is rubbish greedy analysis mah....!!

U should not expect Hengyuan continue to make super eps Rm 1.20 per qtr for the next 4 qtr mah....!!
That will mean Hengyuan EPS should be very high Rm 4.80 loh...!!

Lets be realistic mah, hengyuan sustainable eps is rm 0.61 per qtr loh...! Realistic annualized pa roughly Eps Rm 2.40 loh...!!
Conservatively its sustainable eps pa should be around Rm 2.00 to Rm 2.40 loh....!!

The TP of Rm 22.00 to Rm 42.00 is within this eps range of above rm 2.00 loh...!! Hengyuan PE around 10x based on sustained earnings loh..!!

Remember Nestle only make eps Rm 2.75 but its share price above Rm 140.00 mah....!! Nestle PE is more than 50x loh...!!

DO NOT BE GREEDY LOH, AS HENGYUAN SHOWS CONSISTENT EPS ABOVE RM 1.00 MKT WILL GOING TO RERATE THE VALUATION UPWARDS TO ABOVE PE 10X COMMENSURATE TO BLUECHIP STATUS LOH...!!

JUST LOOK AT PHILLIP 66" WARREN BUFFET REFINERY" WHICH TRADE AT PE 22X LOH...!!

Posted by BursaTornado > Mar 10, 2018 11:26 PM | Report Abuse

Below are the analysis on Q3 and Q4 report.

1)
HY crude oil purchase on Q4 was RM2,735,328,000, USDMYR 4.06 (average).
While crude oil on average was USD60.
Approximately, HY was importing 11228768 barrels of crude oil (2735328000 / 4.06 / 60).
Q4 gross profit was RM356,777,000.
Approximately, profit per barrel was RM31.77 or USD7.825 (31.77 / 4.06).
The average profit per barrel was close to calculated crack spread of USD10.

2)
HY crude oil purchase on Q3 was RM2,533,103,000, USDMYR4.23 (average).
While crude oil on average was USD53.
Approximately, HY was importing 11298911 barrels of crude oil (2533103000 / 4.23 / 53).
HY stockholding gain was USD2.64 per barrel.
Approximately, total additional gain due to stockholding gain was RM126,177,199 (11298911 * 4.23 * 2.64).
While, HY gross profit in Q3 was RM428,721,000.
Take out the stockholding gain, HY gross profit was RM302,543,801.
Close to Q4 actually.
Approximately, profit per barrel was RM37.94 or USD8.969 (37.94 / 4.23).

Thus, HY profit was actually affected by USDMYR dropped, gov tax and perhaps good employee bonus (can see higher expense on the report).

I think this analysis should clear the doubt on crack spread and HY future earning.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-11 00:29 | Report Abuse

WHY IS SUSTAINABLE EPS RM 2.00 TO RM 2.40 VERY CREDIBLE LOH....!!??

THE REALISTIC EPS OF HENGYUAN OF RM 2.00 TO RM 2.40, IT WILL STILL MAKE THE TOP EARNINGS PERFORMER IN MSIA, EVENTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NESTLE WITH EPS OF RM 2.75, IT STILL EXCEED MOST OF LARGE BLUECHIPS EPS OF MAYBANK, PBANK, PGAS, PCHEM, CIMB ETC MAH....!!

HENGYUAN EASILY THE TOP 5 MOST PROFITABLE CO BASED ON SUSTAINED EARNINGS OF RM 2.00 TO RM 2.40 LOH....!!
THE GREAT THING IT IS TRADING AT UNDEMANDING PE 4.5X WHEN U COMPARE TO THE REST WITH AVERAGE PE 16X LOH....!!

IF U COMPARE TO PHILLIP 66, TRADE PE 22X, THERE IS WIDE SCOPE OF APPRECIATION MAH....!!

DO NOT LOOK DOWN ON HENGYUAN, AND PLS DO NOT MISSED THIS OPPORTUNITY TO ACCUMULATE LOH....!!

Posted by mneo > Mar 10, 2018 11:35 PM | Report Abuse

The news posted by trulyinvest is old news. It is dated 7March18(Wed)@13:31 pm before the HY share price rebounded later the day and subsequent days...

Below is the whole news from the edge....

********************************************************************************************************
Hengyuan plunges another 15%, may revisit next support level
Tan Xue Ying
/
theedgemarkets.com

March 07, 2018 13:31 pm +08
-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (Mar 7): Hengyuan Refining Co Bhd’s share price dived as much as 14.7% to RM8.68 this morning, in line with heavy selling seen on Bursa Malaysia as the local bourse tracked regional market performances.

Following a sharply lower opening this morning, the counter continued to be under a great deal of pressure as its share price plummeted below the RM9-level by mid-morning, versus its last closing price of RM10.18 on Tuesday.

As at noon break, the counter was trading at RM8.80 — still down 13.6% or RM1.38 — bringing a market capitalisation of RM2.80 billion. It was the top decliner on Bursa Malaysia.

Today’s sell-down marked Hengyuan’s sixth consecutive trading session of declines. Its share price has nearly halved from its closing price of RM15.10 on Feb 27, knocking about RM1.73 billion from off its market capitalisation.

The heavy selling for the past few days draws a huge contrast to its stellar set of financial results for its financial year ended Dec 31, 2017 (FY17).

Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd head of retail research Loui Low told theedgemarkets.com that Hengyuan has not been able to withstand the selling pressure even with its strong set of results, as the results have been priced in.

"The price has breached below the psychological support of RM10 and may revisit its next support of RM8.60," Low added.

For FY17, the refinery achieved its widest gross profit margin in 20 years at 12.4%, and a threefold jump in its annual profit to RM909.2 million. But concerns arise on the delay of its Euro4M Mogas project.

In its quarterly results announcement, Hengyuan said it anticipated a delay in the planned completion of the Euro4M Mogas project, due to longer-than-expected duration to fabricate the main equipment.

Any delay may result in loss in revenue, as the October 2018 deadline to implement Euro4M gasoline specification for RON95 gets closer.

At press time, the benchmark FBM KLCI was down 0.5% or 9.36 points, with decliners outstripping gainers at 926 versus 124.

Posted by stockraider > Mar 10, 2018 11:03 PM | Report Abuse X

How can delay when Hengyuan already well ahead of its peers ??

Hengyuan is the only refinery well ahead of the rest such as Petron and Petronas in terms of upgrade its ron 95 to euro 4.
Refinery like Petron and Petronas had not even comply to euro 4 and had not indicated and plans for its ron 95, whereas hengyuan is well ahead with its upgrade plan already known loh...!!


Posted by Fam Jenny > Mar 10, 2018 11:48 PM | Report Abuse

What a comparison,can man give birth to babies?

Posted by foreign_fund > 2018-03-11 02:09 | Report Abuse

Why dividend 2 sen if no con?

Posted by foreign_fund > 2018-03-11 02:30 | Report Abuse

The stock is Hengyuan not Shell. We think all Chinaman same.

Posted by arv18 > Mar 11, 2018 02:26 AM | Report Abuse

So where do you think Shell petrol station buy the fuel? If con, how can those station exist?

You know how you have a job to pay back your housing loan from bank?

Same thing with HY. Therefore not much for divvy.



Posted by foreign_fund > Mar 11, 2018 02:09 AM | Report Abuse

Why dividend 2 sen if no con?

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-11 02:49 | Report Abuse

So the refinery in Port Dickson just disappeared, when Chinaman take over?



Posted by foreign_fund > Mar 11, 2018 02:30 AM | Report Abuse

The stock is Hengyuan not Shell. We think all Chinaman same.

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-11 02:50 | Report Abuse

lol!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-03-11 08:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockraider > Mar 11, 2018 12:25 AM | Report Abuse
HOW CAN U SAY LIKE THAT WHEN THE CASHFLOW PER SHARE IS RM 4.00 PER SHARE AND EPS IS RM 3.03 LEH ??
GIVEN THAT IF U THINK THERE IS EXCEPTIONAL ITEM, WOULD IT MORE BE PRODUCTIVE U FIND OUT AND ADJUST FOR IT AND MAKE ANALYSIS BASED ON ITS ADJUSTED EARNINGS LEH ??
SURELY IF U HAVE DONE THAT RAIDER WILL HAVE LESS POINTS TO FEEL UR ANALYSIS IS INCOMPLETE LOH...!!


My friend raider,

Incomplete? In my article, I did nothing at all on the analysis of HY. I have not mentioned anything whether HY is a good or not good investment.

I merely highlight a few things those interested to invest in;

1) beware of operators manipulating the share movement, as I am sure you realized it. I am sure you know you were also one of those being made used off by others in their game when you continuously posted gung ho comments about HY relentlessly when it was trading in RM15-17 region.

2) Investors must look at the business instead of the share price movement when investing.

3) one must look deeper into, the earnings of HY and what they are made off, and stripping those off, what is the normalized earnings.

I don't know much about the industry and the company and I have no motivation to do the analysis on (3) above. Besides, I have many other things to do. There are people who are much knowledgeable than me, and have invested in HY with commitment, and they have also written detail analysis on HY.

Note also I did not make any negative comment on your beloved HY too, but merely suggesting investors not to be too naive to follow the crowd and too simplistic in their approach.

Posted by theloneranger > 2018-03-11 09:20 | Report Abuse

This KC must have a pack with OTB that says cannot criticise each other.....and so must look for stock manipulators.........the invisible hand..........

Much like how conspiracy theories and fake news can get Donald Trump elected and easy on the brain.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-03-11 09:36 | Report Abuse

Posted by theloneranger > Mar 11, 2018 09:20 AM | Report Abuse
This KC must have a pack with OTB that says cannot criticise each other.....and so must look for stock manipulators.........the invisible hand..........
Much like how conspiracy theories and fake news can get Donald Trump elected and easy on the brain.


No 1, making personal attack, like what yo have been doing continuously, is a very low form of human being. I don't do it, obviously.

I don't know how a professional at the age of 60s stands so low as to continuously making personal attacks.

I do make criticisms, but as a responsible citizen, but the criticisms were all related to issues, not personalities. I endeavor to educate the public to be beware of the pitfalls in the stock market, be careful of using margin finance, to invest in stock to be akin to investing in part of a business, etc. When I read something not right, especially from well respected individuals in the public, as most naive and poorly informed people will follow, I provide alternative views so that they can make better judgment, something which a responsible good citizen should do.

I don't know how low your IQ is, not knowing there are operators in Bursa manipulating the share price, all the time. When did you start "playing" in Bursa?

Also note I use "operators" with a "s" at the back.

Posted by fartinvestor > 2018-03-12 10:42 | Report Abuse

Kukuzai stockraider already filing bankruptcy? Did u borrow more money from ah long again? What did u pawn this time? lmao

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2018-03-12 10:45 | Report Abuse

HY is a classic case of operator(s) push and dump. some laghing and some crying ( depends on your timing ) everybody knows is a musical chair. last one holding the balls