Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-10 20:24 | Report Abuse

soojinhou .. thanks. maybe i do have a poor understanding.

but isn't it a bit premature to write of HengYuan? Its a very large company.

This isn't a sendai, focus lumber, etc

Another point: Couldn't proprietry short selling also cause a drastic drop in share price?

Posted by soojinhou > 2018-03-10 20:28 | Report Abuse

I'm not here to dissect share price movement. I'm just pointing out to you that market capitalisation can indeed swing wildly based on small number of trades, because the total number of shares involved in any given day is only a small fraction of the entire share capital of the company.

Posted by lizi > 2018-03-10 20:41 | Report Abuse

arv18, you still have a lot hy?

Posted by arv18 > Mar 10, 2018 08:24 PM | Report Abuse

soojinhou .. thanks. maybe i do have a poor understanding.

but isn't it a bit premature to write of HengYuan? Its a very large company.

This isn't a sendai, focus lumber, etc

Another point: Couldn't proprietry short selling also cause a drastic drop in share price?

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-10 21:24 | Report Abuse

no man. not invested in HY. money in other counters.

watching, and considering an entry over the next 3 months.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-11 00:18 | Report Abuse

NO WONDER U CALL YOURSELF COCKRIDER, U EXIST TO IDENTIFY COCK & RIDE IT LOH...!!

LETS BE POSITIVE LOOK AT THE POSITIVE SIDE OF HENGYUAN, INSTEAD OF SEACHING FOR COCK STORIES LOH...!!

Posted by Cockrider > Mar 10, 2018 05:50 PM | Report Abuse

RAIDER BET WITH U BY...END 31-12-2017....EVERGREEN WILL BE ABOVE RM 1.OO LOH...!!

U DARE BET OR NOT ??

OVER BET WILL NOT BE SO SILLY...LIKE DISAPPEAR FROM I3...MAYBE WE START WITH A BET OF RM 100K LOH....!!

IF AGREE WE BOTH DEPOSIT RM 100K WITH THE LAWYER LOH..!! OK ??


Cockrider
33 posts
Posted by Cockrider > Mar 10, 2018 05:51 PM | Report Abuse

U MUST UNDERSTAND MAH....!!
ALOT OF PEOPLE BUY INTO BJC RM 0.50 & ABOVE, STUCKED FOR MANY YEARS & WANT TO URGENTLY TO GET OUT LOH...!!
THATS WHY THERE ARE MANY SELLERS BUT IT CLEARING LOH...!!

MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT CONSIST OF VALUATION BASE ON EARNINGS BASIS AND BASED ON ASSETS BASIS LOH...!!

ONCE ALL SELLER SUPPLIES IS TAKEN OUT IT CAN FLY LOH....!!
THATS WHY DRB FLY LOH...!!

ALSO MUCH REMEMBER YESTERDAY THE STOCK SHOW NEGATIVE EPS, TODAY AND FUTURE, IT MAY SHOW STRONG EARNINGS TOO LOH...!!

U NEED TO IDENTIFY THIS KIND OF STOCK LOH....!!

BJC IS THIS KIND OF STOCK BASED ON RAIDER RESEARCH LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-11 00:25 | Report Abuse

HOW CAN U SAY LIKE THAT WHEN THE CASHFLOW PER SHARE IS RM 4.00 PER SHARE AND EPS IS RM 3.03 LEH ??

I don't think I said HY is a goreng stock. But the share price behaviour of HY in the couple of months certainly shows that HY was being "gorenged", and "gorenged" heavily.

I look at investing in different way than you do, and I am not saying my view is more superior than yours.

I have mentioned EPS, basing on one year results and with some non-recurring items, is not a good measure of value.

Cash flows and free cash flows suffer the same faith, or even more if basing on a single year number, as cash flows which involves change in working capital from one year to another, and more so free cash flows, when capital expenses are concerned, are very lumpy. A minimum of 3-5 years has to be taken into account.

GIVEN THAT IF U THINK THERE IS EXCEPTIONAL ITEM, WOULD IT MORE BE PRODUCTIVE U FIND OUT AND ADJUST FOR IT AND MAKE ANALYSIS BASED ON ITS ADJUSTED EARNINGS LEH ??

SURELY IF U HAVE DONE THAT RAIDER WILL HAVE LESS POINTS TO FEEL UR ANALYSIS IS INCOMPLETE LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-11 00:27 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockraider > Mar 10, 2018 11:43 PM | Report Abuse X

Your analysis is rubbish greedy analysis mah....!!

U should not expect Hengyuan continue to make super eps Rm 1.20 per qtr for the next 4 qtr mah....!!
That will mean Hengyuan EPS should be very high Rm 4.80 loh...!!

Lets be realistic mah, hengyuan sustainable eps is rm 0.61 per qtr loh...! Realistic annualized pa roughly Eps Rm 2.40 loh...!!
Conservatively its sustainable eps pa should be around Rm 2.00 to Rm 2.40 loh....!!

The TP of Rm 22.00 to Rm 42.00 is within this eps range of above rm 2.00 loh...!! Hengyuan PE around 10x based on sustained earnings loh..!!

Remember Nestle only make eps Rm 2.75 but its share price above Rm 140.00 mah....!! Nestle PE is more than 50x loh...!!

DO NOT BE GREEDY LOH, AS HENGYUAN SHOWS CONSISTENT EPS ABOVE RM 1.00 MKT WILL GOING TO RERATE THE VALUATION UPWARDS TO ABOVE PE 10X COMMENSURATE TO BLUECHIP STATUS LOH...!!

JUST LOOK AT PHILLIP 66" WARREN BUFFET REFINERY" WHICH TRADE AT PE 22X LOH...!!

Posted by BursaTornado > Mar 10, 2018 11:26 PM | Report Abuse

Below are the analysis on Q3 and Q4 report.

1)
HY crude oil purchase on Q4 was RM2,735,328,000, USDMYR 4.06 (average).
While crude oil on average was USD60.
Approximately, HY was importing 11228768 barrels of crude oil (2735328000 / 4.06 / 60).
Q4 gross profit was RM356,777,000.
Approximately, profit per barrel was RM31.77 or USD7.825 (31.77 / 4.06).
The average profit per barrel was close to calculated crack spread of USD10.

2)
HY crude oil purchase on Q3 was RM2,533,103,000, USDMYR4.23 (average).
While crude oil on average was USD53.
Approximately, HY was importing 11298911 barrels of crude oil (2533103000 / 4.23 / 53).
HY stockholding gain was USD2.64 per barrel.
Approximately, total additional gain due to stockholding gain was RM126,177,199 (11298911 * 4.23 * 2.64).
While, HY gross profit in Q3 was RM428,721,000.
Take out the stockholding gain, HY gross profit was RM302,543,801.
Close to Q4 actually.
Approximately, profit per barrel was RM37.94 or USD8.969 (37.94 / 4.23).

Thus, HY profit was actually affected by USDMYR dropped, gov tax and perhaps good employee bonus (can see higher expense on the report).

I think this analysis should clear the doubt on crack spread and HY future earning.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-03-11 00:29 | Report Abuse

WHY IS SUSTAINABLE EPS RM 2.00 TO RM 2.40 VERY CREDIBLE LOH....!!??

THE REALISTIC EPS OF HENGYUAN OF RM 2.00 TO RM 2.40, IT WILL STILL MAKE THE TOP EARNINGS PERFORMER IN MSIA, EVENTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NESTLE WITH EPS OF RM 2.75, IT STILL EXCEED MOST OF LARGE BLUECHIPS EPS OF MAYBANK, PBANK, PGAS, PCHEM, CIMB ETC MAH....!!

HENGYUAN EASILY THE TOP 5 MOST PROFITABLE CO BASED ON SUSTAINED EARNINGS OF RM 2.00 TO RM 2.40 LOH....!!
THE GREAT THING IT IS TRADING AT UNDEMANDING PE 4.5X WHEN U COMPARE TO THE REST WITH AVERAGE PE 16X LOH....!!

IF U COMPARE TO PHILLIP 66, TRADE PE 22X, THERE IS WIDE SCOPE OF APPRECIATION MAH....!!

DO NOT LOOK DOWN ON HENGYUAN, AND PLS DO NOT MISSED THIS OPPORTUNITY TO ACCUMULATE LOH....!!

Posted by mneo > Mar 10, 2018 11:35 PM | Report Abuse

The news posted by trulyinvest is old news. It is dated 7March18(Wed)@13:31 pm before the HY share price rebounded later the day and subsequent days...

Below is the whole news from the edge....

********************************************************************************************************
Hengyuan plunges another 15%, may revisit next support level
Tan Xue Ying
/
theedgemarkets.com

March 07, 2018 13:31 pm +08
-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (Mar 7): Hengyuan Refining Co Bhd’s share price dived as much as 14.7% to RM8.68 this morning, in line with heavy selling seen on Bursa Malaysia as the local bourse tracked regional market performances.

Following a sharply lower opening this morning, the counter continued to be under a great deal of pressure as its share price plummeted below the RM9-level by mid-morning, versus its last closing price of RM10.18 on Tuesday.

As at noon break, the counter was trading at RM8.80 — still down 13.6% or RM1.38 — bringing a market capitalisation of RM2.80 billion. It was the top decliner on Bursa Malaysia.

Today’s sell-down marked Hengyuan’s sixth consecutive trading session of declines. Its share price has nearly halved from its closing price of RM15.10 on Feb 27, knocking about RM1.73 billion from off its market capitalisation.

The heavy selling for the past few days draws a huge contrast to its stellar set of financial results for its financial year ended Dec 31, 2017 (FY17).

Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd head of retail research Loui Low told theedgemarkets.com that Hengyuan has not been able to withstand the selling pressure even with its strong set of results, as the results have been priced in.

"The price has breached below the psychological support of RM10 and may revisit its next support of RM8.60," Low added.

For FY17, the refinery achieved its widest gross profit margin in 20 years at 12.4%, and a threefold jump in its annual profit to RM909.2 million. But concerns arise on the delay of its Euro4M Mogas project.

In its quarterly results announcement, Hengyuan said it anticipated a delay in the planned completion of the Euro4M Mogas project, due to longer-than-expected duration to fabricate the main equipment.

Any delay may result in loss in revenue, as the October 2018 deadline to implement Euro4M gasoline specification for RON95 gets closer.

At press time, the benchmark FBM KLCI was down 0.5% or 9.36 points, with decliners outstripping gainers at 926 versus 124.

Posted by stockraider > Mar 10, 2018 11:03 PM | Report Abuse X

How can delay when Hengyuan already well ahead of its peers ??

Hengyuan is the only refinery well ahead of the rest such as Petron and Petronas in terms of upgrade its ron 95 to euro 4.
Refinery like Petron and Petronas had not even comply to euro 4 and had not indicated and plans for its ron 95, whereas hengyuan is well ahead with its upgrade plan already known loh...!!


Posted by Fam Jenny > Mar 10, 2018 11:48 PM | Report Abuse

What a comparison,can man give birth to babies?

Posted by foreign_fund > 2018-03-11 02:09 | Report Abuse

Why dividend 2 sen if no con?

Posted by foreign_fund > 2018-03-11 02:30 | Report Abuse

The stock is Hengyuan not Shell. We think all Chinaman same.

Posted by arv18 > Mar 11, 2018 02:26 AM | Report Abuse

So where do you think Shell petrol station buy the fuel? If con, how can those station exist?

You know how you have a job to pay back your housing loan from bank?

Same thing with HY. Therefore not much for divvy.



Posted by foreign_fund > Mar 11, 2018 02:09 AM | Report Abuse

Why dividend 2 sen if no con?

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-11 02:49 | Report Abuse

So the refinery in Port Dickson just disappeared, when Chinaman take over?



Posted by foreign_fund > Mar 11, 2018 02:30 AM | Report Abuse

The stock is Hengyuan not Shell. We think all Chinaman same.

Posted by arv18 > 2018-03-11 02:50 | Report Abuse

lol!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-03-11 08:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockraider > Mar 11, 2018 12:25 AM | Report Abuse
HOW CAN U SAY LIKE THAT WHEN THE CASHFLOW PER SHARE IS RM 4.00 PER SHARE AND EPS IS RM 3.03 LEH ??
GIVEN THAT IF U THINK THERE IS EXCEPTIONAL ITEM, WOULD IT MORE BE PRODUCTIVE U FIND OUT AND ADJUST FOR IT AND MAKE ANALYSIS BASED ON ITS ADJUSTED EARNINGS LEH ??
SURELY IF U HAVE DONE THAT RAIDER WILL HAVE LESS POINTS TO FEEL UR ANALYSIS IS INCOMPLETE LOH...!!


My friend raider,

Incomplete? In my article, I did nothing at all on the analysis of HY. I have not mentioned anything whether HY is a good or not good investment.

I merely highlight a few things those interested to invest in;

1) beware of operators manipulating the share movement, as I am sure you realized it. I am sure you know you were also one of those being made used off by others in their game when you continuously posted gung ho comments about HY relentlessly when it was trading in RM15-17 region.

2) Investors must look at the business instead of the share price movement when investing.

3) one must look deeper into, the earnings of HY and what they are made off, and stripping those off, what is the normalized earnings.

I don't know much about the industry and the company and I have no motivation to do the analysis on (3) above. Besides, I have many other things to do. There are people who are much knowledgeable than me, and have invested in HY with commitment, and they have also written detail analysis on HY.

Note also I did not make any negative comment on your beloved HY too, but merely suggesting investors not to be too naive to follow the crowd and too simplistic in their approach.

Posted by theloneranger > 2018-03-11 09:20 | Report Abuse

This KC must have a pack with OTB that says cannot criticise each other.....and so must look for stock manipulators.........the invisible hand..........

Much like how conspiracy theories and fake news can get Donald Trump elected and easy on the brain.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-03-11 09:36 | Report Abuse

Posted by theloneranger > Mar 11, 2018 09:20 AM | Report Abuse
This KC must have a pack with OTB that says cannot criticise each other.....and so must look for stock manipulators.........the invisible hand..........
Much like how conspiracy theories and fake news can get Donald Trump elected and easy on the brain.


No 1, making personal attack, like what yo have been doing continuously, is a very low form of human being. I don't do it, obviously.

I don't know how a professional at the age of 60s stands so low as to continuously making personal attacks.

I do make criticisms, but as a responsible citizen, but the criticisms were all related to issues, not personalities. I endeavor to educate the public to be beware of the pitfalls in the stock market, be careful of using margin finance, to invest in stock to be akin to investing in part of a business, etc. When I read something not right, especially from well respected individuals in the public, as most naive and poorly informed people will follow, I provide alternative views so that they can make better judgment, something which a responsible good citizen should do.

I don't know how low your IQ is, not knowing there are operators in Bursa manipulating the share price, all the time. When did you start "playing" in Bursa?

Also note I use "operators" with a "s" at the back.

Posted by fartinvestor > 2018-03-12 10:42 | Report Abuse

Kukuzai stockraider already filing bankruptcy? Did u borrow more money from ah long again? What did u pawn this time? lmao

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2018-03-12 10:45 | Report Abuse

HY is a classic case of operator(s) push and dump. some laghing and some crying ( depends on your timing ) everybody knows is a musical chair. last one holding the balls