Posted by Alex™ > 2018-08-19 13:03 | Report Abuse

Got track record to prove? Sounds nice wor... Can execute or not?

Posted by stockraider > 2018-08-19 13:05 | Report Abuse

Normally people theory veli panlai loh....!!

Posted by Alex™ > Aug 19, 2018 01:03 PM | Report Abuse

Got track record to prove? Sounds nice wor... Can execute or not?

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-08-19 13:06 | Report Abuse

Try business sense investing and execute it before 1997 and 2007...

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-08-19 13:07 | Report Abuse

Of course, if ur time frame is longer, then maybe got chance la... Buffett always says that. Unfortunately, ppl who invest just prior to great depression couldn't survive to see the rebound. How?

Posted by stockraider > 2018-08-19 13:07 | Report Abuse

For raider....simple....just pick a napshot stock right here...to prove that this is no no theory talk loh....!!

No need prove any historical track record loh.....!!

Posted by stockraider > Aug 19, 2018 01:05 PM | Report Abuse X

Normally people theory veli panlai loh....!!

Posted by Alex™ > Aug 19, 2018 01:03 PM | Report Abuse

Got track record to prove? Sounds nice wor... Can execute or not?

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-08-19 13:08 | Report Abuse

Good idea stockraider sifu... Ah Jon, Apa stock can hoot? Give a time frame...

Posted by Apabagus > 2018-08-19 13:09 | Report Abuse

Cantonese say..."Talk war on paper"....talk is cheap.
Where is your track record?

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-08-19 13:10 | Report Abuse

Aiya... 军师 also talk only ma... Where got go front line one... Haha

Posted by Apabagus > 2018-08-19 13:12 | Report Abuse

Alex boy...ur kun su will be fired immediately when the casualties come rolling in.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-08-19 13:14 | Report Abuse

Betui juga... Need wait tentera report... Now still theory stage... Fast... Recommend stock to hoot~

Posted by Apabagus > 2018-08-19 13:14 | Report Abuse

Here is i3.
Talk some practical stuff.Want talk theory go teach in college.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-19 13:16 | Report Abuse

No idea. I just try to improve my thinking, thought process, and thus investment picks.

Whatever returns come, i accept it.

No realistic track record for now. Because i've only been in market for a short time.

We will find out 5 - 10 years from now, if im just panlai at theory, or am actually a good investor i guess.

Yes raider, the thing is when you buy a very high quality business, the margin of safety in terms of price you need will be much lower.

Haha 3iii, i definitely spend alot more time looking for companies with very high quality, but sometimes, some companies are far too cheap, while having pretty decent management. Can buy abit.

===================================================================================

Alex™ Ur method is for 20% p.a?
19/08/2018 09:07


stockraider Yes correct...but both is not mutually exclusive loh....!!

Why can't u have the benefit of both ??

Business sense & quantitative with margin of safety leh ??


3iii I agree with all the points in the above article of Choivo. I have an added step, that is Quality FIRST, then Price.
19/08/2018 11:55

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-08-19 13:21 | Report Abuse

Ok la, forgive u la. I tot is sure win method. Come back 10years

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-19 13:36 | Report Abuse

You are right.

That's why i said, the resilience of the earnings and the resilience of the growth.

Investing, when you consider the cashflow produced by the company over its lifetime, require you to look very far into its future, and to know it with certainty, is very very very very hard.

If you look at coca cola at 1930, 1988, you can see some of the incredible economic characteristics of the company. And try reading what wb wrote on this, quite insightful.

I have no comments on tencent or netflix, but i would like to getmyself in a position where if i see something similar in the future, i would have the thought process needed to identify this as a potentially fantastic investment, and put significant capital in.

But its really really really very very hard. When i read the old reports for Alibaba, Tencent and Netflix, i really dont know if i would have bought any. Maybe a small to mid position in the first 2, but Netflix, really no idea.

Fidelity did a research in their investment accounts, and what they found out, was that the accounts that performed best, were the ones where the investors forgotten they even had an account. This is fascinating to me.

As humans, we always think we can predict the short term future accurately, but it clearly is not so. And we have biases that make us remember the correct predictions and forget the wrong ones.

Imaging you bought PBBANK say 10- 20 years ago or even during IPO, they are so many times, when its above fair value, but it was worth it to hold, because of the
fantastic management and economics behind it.

Even Warren Buffet made so many mistakes when he bought capital cities, bought at 13, sold at 20. Rebuy at 43, sold at 73. Rebuy at 120, and buy alot more and hold before it was sold to Disney.

And he always made fund of how he was so foolish to even sell a single share.

Right now, as you are probably aware, malaysia market is very small, i can only find maybe 5 companies, with 2 or 3 at fair value or cheaper. Maybe its because i am deficient in my knowledge.

As an ikan bilis, i can put make these 2 companies 50% plus of portfolio. If i was an elephant, i will need a lot more of these fantastic companies. Tgat is very very hard.

And i have never said my way is the best, if you have the ability to predict quarters will very very high accuracy, and time the market and sentiments to a T. By all means do that.

But most people can't, and those that think they can are often lucky. I know i definitely can't.

I critique the other method a lot, but if you can show me intellectually how to predict quarters to a T, do a Expected Value calculation and size your bet using the Kelly Method with high accuracy, and have it in a way that is intellectually clear, instead of just gut feeling. By all means, i will change my mind and make money faster.

People's failure to defend their viewpoints intellectually, is their own admittance that they are either lucky, or they are too genius that they cannot explain.

But when it comes to the second, i read Warren Buffet letters from 1955 to 2018, and i see how this man turn USD19 per share to USD300k per share, every step of the way. He is really a genius, i don't know if i can ever reach his standard. Or even 50%.

At USD20mil portfolio, he already had the kind of thinking he has today, just more shallow (which is damn deep when compared to most). I don't see him talking about agility.

At the end of the day, you have to pick the investment method that works for you, some cannot concentrate because they have low tolerance for risk or are more conservative etc. Or some are too concentrated because they are greedy and not because they know the business that well (this is me). And its ok to just admit that.

But regardless of what method you choose, you must be very very intellectually honest with yourself.

===================================================================================
soojinhou But then, everything about paying a fair price hinges on growth rate isn't it? If I can accurately forecast growth rate precisely, I would be a trillionaire many times over, won't I? Tencent was considered an unstoppable force until just recently, so was Netflix. Hindsight is always 20/20, of course on hindsight Coca-cola justifies the price Buffett paid, but when he first purchased it, it's at best a calculated bet. Don't get me wrong, Buffett is the best for generating returns for managing humungous amount of capital. But why should ikan bilis like me aspire to be him, when I can use agility to my advantage to get higher returns than his? You problem, in my opinion, is your arrogance to think that you way is the only right way and everyone else is crap, and then start shitting on everyone else's method.
19/08/2018 11:46

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-19 13:40 | Report Abuse

The thing about fantastic companies is,

If you look at TP's from every step of the way from years ago. It just looks so foolish.

When the company is fantastic, and you hold long enough, you get very interesting results.

Having said that, people had this mindset in 1999, and in the 1920 Nifty Fifties. And they will not just buy these companies (Many of whom were not that fantastic), but pay literally any prices. And we saw what happened, if they held till today, maybe different story. But they will need to sit through 70-80% portfolio decline lah.

As HM says, A bad company at a low enough price is a good investment. A good company at a high enough price, is a bad investment.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-08-19 14:25 | Report Abuse

VC knowledgeable tak?

Tahu d industries tahu d bisnes tahu d players tahu d companies even betting on more than one companies in d same industries

Tapi success rate 20% je

Macam mana?

Posted by myongcc5 > 2018-08-19 20:55 | Report Abuse

Good!

Flintstones The safest asset to invest in this world is yourself. Many youngsters are trapped in the thinking that investing will make them real rich. If you have a business, focus on how to improve your business. If you are an employee and have four figure salary like Jon Choivo here, work hard and go for the five figure salary. Stop dreaming of getting rich. You will be better well off than many i3 speculators who have mixed record in thr market.
19/08/2018 09:01

Posted by godhand > 2018-08-20 09:35 | Report Abuse

Fully agreed. If he can make money through stocks. isnt it his asset? everybody definition of asset is different. If as your skill gets better it generate you more and more money, it is an asset.

The safest asset to invest in this world is yourself. Many youngsters are trapped in the thinking that investing will make them real rich. If you have a business, focus on how to improve your business. If you are an employee and have four figure salary like Jon Choivo here, work hard and go for the five figure salary. Stop dreaming of getting rich. You will be better well off than many i3 speculators who have mixed record in thr market.

Posted by godhand > 2018-08-20 09:36 | Report Abuse

keep doing what u love. never give up

Posted by godhand > 2018-08-20 09:42 | Report Abuse

Alex™ Try business sense investing and execute it before 1997 and 2007...

keyword is holding power. u believe in the product and service u will hold forever.

Posted by godhand > 2018-08-20 09:43 | Report Abuse

how do u think businessmen succeed? they endure pain and failure much much better than you

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-20 16:03 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-20 16:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-21 00:27 | Report Abuse

Qqq,

I can give you an arguement, I can't give you an understanding.

Volatility is not risk.

High risk high reward, and low risk low reward have the same expected value.

The goal is low risk, high reward.

I bought flbhd at rm1. Low risk, its now up to 1.4. High reward.

Volatility or a particularly maniacal Mr market is the friend of an investor.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-21 00:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-21 00:36 | Report Abuse

oh...and that thing you want to call low risk high return.....

yeah.....its a marketing trick.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-21 00:44 | Report Abuse

If someone promises me low risk, high return, low volatility.

Yeah he's probably bullshitting.

If someone tells me, low risk, return somewhat higher than the risk taken due to the buying of 1 dollar for 50 cents, lack of volatility cannot be promised. Likely to be very bumpy results. But over a long period of time should edge up and be quite satisfactory.

I'll be inclined to listen for a few more minutes.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2018-08-21 00:45 | Report Abuse

At certain point of time particularly during period of prolonged crisis it may be possible to achieve a minimum 20% gain per annum over say, a three years timeframe.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-21 00:52 | Report Abuse

Being able to identify whether something has low or high risk, requires some business sense. Or even common sense.

They are not mutually exclusive.

You seem to be mangling the logic to fit your principle.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-08-21 00:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-21 00:57 | Report Abuse

FLHB?

I too have FLH at 1.00......posted several times the reason I buy is because of the ban on log exports.....and relatively low price and having been neglected for some time.....It got to do with business sense, not low risk high rewards.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-21 00:59 | Report Abuse

every thing boils down to business sense...no business sense, no need to talk.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-21 01:21 | Report Abuse

If one got no business sense, can go buy s&p index. Outperform most fund managers.

Its not whether you got sense anot. But whether you know the limits of your ability.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-21 08:57 | Report Abuse

FLHB?

lets talk FLHB then.

just because it went from $ 1.00 to $ 1.40 does not mean it is a low risk high return stock. Just as it took one path ( the one from $1 to $ 1.40) , it does not mean it is the only path open to it. Of course hind sight is perfect vision, hindsight means only one path is known about its past. But in analyzing a stock, we are talking probabilities of its still unknown future paths......that means we are talking about history, probabilities and business sense.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-21 10:19 | Report Abuse

This is why i said it was low risk.

You are right, balance of probabilities.

Right now, you seem hell bent on bending everything to somehow come out with the narrative that you are right.

Its not enough that people have similar viewpoints with you, but they must 100% follow you. And not just that, but prostrate before you, saying you are smarter and more right than them.

That's my impression of you based on our interactions and my observation.

That is just odd really.




===================================================================================
Posted by Jon Choivo > Feb 28, 2018 07:49 PM

Lets just look at the figures.

cash and cash equivalents is RM98mil. No borrowings. That means this company, you buy now at current market valuation, only 28mil.

Lets say worse case scenario, the company only make 1m per quarter or 4 mil per year till forever. Discount that at 4.5% (Fd/risk free rate rate). The company should still be worth around RM89mil.

Conservative FV: RM89mil + RM 98mil= RM187mil.

Current price of RM125 mil present margin of safety 34%.

That's pretty good.

Now that is very very conservative, assuming profit per year only 4mil.

If profit you estimate at say 10mil. Margin of safety goes up to 61%. Or even just 6 mil per annum. Margin of safety is 46%.

Thats a lot.

But of course, remember, what is low can go much much much lower. There are at least 4-5 companies in malaysia trading at less than net cash and cash equivalents. 2 of them is even profitable!

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2018-08-21 10:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-21 11:31 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-21 11:40 | Report Abuse

qqq3,

Volatility is not risk. Using Beta, which is used to calculate volatility and risk. It would be riskier to buy MYEG at 0.68 than today at RM1.28.

That is pure stupidity. There is no elegant formula to calculate risk, and the past share price movement is and event stupider way to consider.

For me, OTB picks is risky, because of the short time frames, and highly reliant on sentiment. And that he is willing to buy not so much on fundamental, or to derive economic benefit from the company, but because he think in a few months down the line, someone will be willing to pay a higher price. That is risky to me.

But when it comes to this, clearly has the alpha. The only question is whether it can be maintained, and not wiped out. This one i really cannot answer. Traders, even great ones like Paul Tudor Jones, just seem to be subject very sudden and permanent reversal of fortunes, that can take decades to manifest.

Having said that, if his record is bad, most investors or traders, including yourself, must be down right retarded, with records not even equal to the steam off his piss.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-21 12:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-21 13:05 | Report Abuse

Why is volatility is risk?

Give me your logic.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-21 13:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-21 13:38 | Report Abuse

So your arguement is if anyone wants to open a fund.

They must consider volatility a risk?

If anyone want to talk publicly, they must also consider volatility a risk, no matter how stupid it is?

If most fund managers think like you, its not wonder most don't beat the index.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-21 13:49 | Report Abuse

jon

I know...crooks don't want any rules, crooks don't need any rules.

But properly licensed mutual funds are properly monitored and measured by professionals.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-21 14:11 | Report Abuse

In that case, Seth Klarman is a crook, Richard Robertson, Peter Lynch, Walter Schloss are all crooks.

Don't be foolish.

I do not deny that fund management is a sewer of crooks. When you earn money regardless of whether or not you earn money for your investors, and there is low skin in game.

The only ethical rule in fund investing, is to be super clear and honest about your philosophy. Which OTB does.

He has his subscriptions, which i think is the bulk of the earnings. And he manages some people's account.

That's very different from a mutual fund.

===================================================================================



qqq3 jon

I know...crooks don't want any rules, crooks don't need any rules.

But properly licensed mutual funds are properly monitored and measured by professionals.
21/08/2018 13:49

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-21 14:48 | Report Abuse

u have ambition to be stock market adviser ...I leave u alone.

I have no such ambition and never met one I like.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-21 14:51 | Report Abuse

I like those who plays with own capital...like KYY, like myself.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-21 17:01 | Report Abuse

So as long as they use only their own capital, you will like?

Do you like bonescythe?

Highly unethical people when it comes to markets like KYY you like?

I suppose you also hate charlie munger, warren buffet, peter lynch, benjamin graham also?

If i decide to buyout all my partners today, you will suddenly go from don't like me, to love me?

Will i turn from in your view, have wrong philosophy to a genius in market?

You either have really weird standards for life. Or your ego literally is cannot take a loss at all.

======================================================================
Posted by qqq3 > Aug 21, 2018 02:51 PM | Report Abuse

I like those who plays with own capital...like KYY, like myself.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-21 17:24 | Report Abuse

Jon Choivo > Aug 21, 2018 05:01 PM | Report Abuse

So as long as they use only their own capital, you will like?
==========

yes...own money., what is there not to like?

stock market as war....what is not to like?

what I don't like is advisers hang, goat head sell dog meat....not you, that kc fellow.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-21 17:26 | Report Abuse

How did KC hang goat head, sell dog meat.

Mind to elaborate?

What is there to dislike about someone managing someone else's money if he's ethical?

Posted by Fantastico > 2018-08-27 16:37 | Report Abuse

@Jon Choivo, what books do you read? Any recommendations? Thanks