Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-19 07:21 | Report Abuse

A post with very muddled thinking.

Posted by speakup > 2019-02-19 07:36 | Report Abuse

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/464593
this is better read. enjoy!

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-19 07:44 | Report Abuse

I think a big misconception is also that playing stock market is easy.
Buy and hold and forget what you are doing!
Just buy special indicators based on modified stochastics and moving average, buy when signal is right and uptrend detected, sure win!

Warren advocates long term investing yes, but not buy and forget. Monitor quarterly reports to see how the business of performing, then make your next choice.

One plays on psychology the other plays on business results. Both need careful study.

Stock market is not for the lazy. Actually, nothing worthwhile is.

Author is very right saying we should have enough information at our control which includes technical and fundamental.

But I think the more important ingredient is how to build up your second level thinking (Howard marks) of removing unnecessary information, trading a detour understanding of the information given, and making the right choice.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-19 08:00 | Report Abuse

I believe a good entry is never as important as picking the good stock at a fair price.

Why? Even if you have the best entry you will never sailang. It's not feasible because best entry is usually for lowest point of a stock in its history, meaning problems in the horizon. Optimism in the face of problems is admirable, but usually fatal.

Picking a good stock(at a fair price) you are able to sailang, because you are participating in the growth and success of a company without any stormcloud in the horizon. Sure it will come, but if is not there yet, why be pessimistic? Pessimism when things are looking very good is a sad way to live.

Having said that, it is almost impossible to buy great companies at liquidation prices, you always have to pay a premium for quality. Nestle,dutchlady, topglove, Hong Leong, QL, yinson, PCHEM, hartalega, are all companies that have returned multibaggers throughout the years but have always been under the radar of short term traders. Thank God.

I wouldn't have it any other way.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-19 08:32 | Report Abuse

trading for fun
investing for dough....

unless u are KYY......hundreds of millions worth all from trading.....


he also must have done things different from the masses to be in such a unique situation.

Posted by StallionInvestment > 2019-02-19 09:16 | Report Abuse

In market there is different player that adopt different strategy and different time frame. putting up this article is to make people think what are they doing right now? Which method is suitable for them? 3iii. I hope you get the message from the article. Philip, if you are the person who adopt long term and you identify at a good price. Yes you can say so. Happen if you hold on TM, MYEG, GAMUDA, BSTEAD. Just less than half a year, you 3-5 years position holding which ride on profitable investment end up become a losses. So, conclusion is still back to the entry. Even Nestle, i can say it will drop as well. Because there is no forever up counter if you look back in the past. Even Public Bank in the history also drop tremendously during financial crisis. So, if you pick up good counter at a good entry price that is good. Which mean it has to be both. If you pick up NESTLE at current price, I think very high probability you will be losing money after 2 years if you look into the shares price itself.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-19 09:44 | Report Abuse

TM, MYEG, gamuda and bstead is not good stocks. Never have been. Never will. Those are companies which are only based in Malaysia and can only compete locally. Political stocks, construction stocks that can only compete locally I don't really see any point in following long term.

For me, the stocks that I bought and held for 10 years now since 2009 was QL, topglove, pbb and YINSON. Those are Malaysian companies which I saw growth and are competing regionally and internationally. I have bought and held these stocks, and have been average buying continuously after every quarter for 40 quarters.

Obviously you need some technical knowledge if you want to buy, you need to buy at a fair price. Like right now ql and NESTLE is pe50, true but it is unfair to assume that just because the price now is high didn't mean you will lose money.

Just ask Amazon. Facebook. Coca cola in the 90's. There are exceptions to every rule. Buy high can go higher, just as buy low can go lower.

I'm sure trading will make money. But thinking that only good price to enter is a dangerous consideration if you don't look to the business itself first.

If we just look at simple price movements, sapura:
2017 was rm2.20(adjusted)
2018 was rm0.65
Today it is rm0.30 cents.

Is this a good time to enter? If simply based on price momentum sapura seems to be all time cheap. Buy!

But if you look closer, when a company starts printing free share issues to "borrow" money, and use it to pay their billions of dollars of debt instead of growing their business, I would say this is the most dangerous time in its history as a company.

Trading can definitely make small money. But I doubt anyone will have the temperament (or the balls of platinum) to sailang millions of dollars into sapura sell house sell family.

Warren buffet put 99% of his net worth into 1 stock. Berkshire.
Chia song kun put 99% of his net worth into 1 stock. Ql.
Bill gates put 99% of his net worth into 1 stock. Microsoft.
I put 90% of my networth into 4 stocks. In 10 years holding and building my exposure ql, topglov, pbb and YINSON they have done wonders for me.


Which is better in the long run? I may be wrong you may be right, but I'm still trying to find a short term trading sifu who has a portfolio over 10 years and growing consistently 20% compounded average yearly who is willing to show his portfolio gains and strategy for scrutiny.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-19 10:13 | Report Abuse

Yes Raider totally agree with this important statement...Get your entry price right...and u r in the route of successful battle loh...!!

What is a good entry price leh ??

1. Stock price undervalue with big margin of safety like insas.
2. Stock price at a reasonable margin of safety on the verge of breakout.
3. All time low price stock with blood in the street but make sure the stock has high margin of safety and low gearing that it can stand the temporary tsunami mah....!!
4. Stock with good growth potential at reasonable price.

U notice everything raider say there is a "margin of safety" word, why leh ??
Answer This what surewin investment all about mah ....if u buy undervalue & prepare to hold u will win mah....!! Do not do anything stupid in the mkt without 1st checking the margin of safety loh..!!

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-19 10:43 | Report Abuse

>>>

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 19, 2019 08:00 AM | Report Abuse

I believe a good entry is never as important as picking the good stock at a fair price.

Why? Even if you have the best entry you will never sailang. It's not feasible because best entry is usually for lowest point of a stock in its history, meaning problems in the horizon. Optimism in the face of problems is admirable, but usually fatal.

Picking a good stock(at a fair price) you are able to sailang, because you are participating in the growth and success of a company without any stormcloud in the horizon. Sure it will come, but if is not there yet, why be pessimistic? Pessimism when things are looking very good is a sad way to live.

Having said that, it is almost impossible to buy great companies at liquidation prices, you always have to pay a premium for quality. Nestle,dutchlady, topglove, Hong Leong, QL, yinson, PCHEM, hartalega, are all companies that have returned multibaggers throughout the years but have always been under the radar of short term traders. Thank God.

I wouldn't have it any other way.

>>>>


In 2005, Nestle traded at 26.00. When China stock market fell suddenly by 20% during that year, the stock markets of the world reacted in sympathy. Nestle got sold down to 22.00.

I bought some Nestle at 22.00. Soon, the market became rational again, and Nestle climbed back to 26.00.

Today, 2019, Nestle is 150.00.

Assuming, one was able to time your buying perfectly and bought at 22.00 and another just bought at 26.00 in 2005, what are the returns to them respectively today?

The answer is, the difference in gains between them is not significant. There is a difference but it is not significant.

More significant is when you did not buy in 2005, whatever the price in 2005?

Therefore, a good entry into Nestle in 2005 for a long term investor is not as important as picking a great stock. I understand this is right from my perspective as a investor into great companies at a good price for the long term.


[A trader with short term perspective will need to find his own philosophy to guide his difficult strategy.]

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-19 10:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-19 11:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-19 11:19 | Report Abuse

3iii! I beg to differ. I sold my PBB at 25. Haha.

PCHEM i bought start from 8.15-8.33. Today it is 8.87. Do I sell with 5% gain?

Why sell at all? Buy and forget? No. Buy and read every quarterly report.

For short term trading, it is a very careful strategy that needs to be micromanaged. I'm sure steven is very good at what he does. I wish him all the best. I put my trading philosophy in the too hard pile almost 19 years now thanks to halim bin saad and renong and aokam perdana. And it hasn't been for the lack of trying.

I just realized that trading strategies seem more akin to buying black on the roulette table and it working out ten times in a row. But when the red color comes, there is just no way to predict this. Which is even funnier when the baccarat tables start showing me the previous results of banker/player like it means anything.

I finally found out that short term trading depends on psychology (thats what momentum is). Herd psychology is by definition irrational. How to make money from crazy people?

I just gave up and decided buying businesses on the possibility that great businesses will make more money over time than lousy business makes more rational sense.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-19 11:21 | Report Abuse

>>>Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 19, 2019 11:19 AM | Report Abuse

3iii! I beg to differ. I sold my PBB at 25. Haha.

PCHEM i bought start from 8.15-8.33. Today it is 8.87. Do I sell with 5% gain?

Why sell at all? Buy and forget? No. Buy and read every quarterly report.

For short term trading, it is a very careful strategy that needs to be micromanaged. I'm sure steven is very good at what he does. I wish him all the best. I put my trading philosophy in the too hard pile almost 19 years now thanks to halim bin saad and renong and aokam perdana. And it hasn't been for the lack of trying.

I just realized that trading strategies seem more akin to buying black on the roulette table and it working out ten times in a row. But when the red color comes, there is just no way to predict this. Which is even funnier when the baccarat tables start showing me the previous results of banker/player like it means anything.

I finally found out that short term trading depends on psychology (thats what momentum is). Herd psychology is by definition irrational. How to make money from crazy people?

I just gave up and decided buying businesses on the possibility that great businesses will make more money over time than lousy business makes more rational sense.<<<




Yes, Mr. Philip. You did a switch from PBB to PChem. That is of interest to many in this forum. I did have a look at PChem after you highlighted.

Posted by newbie8080 > 2019-02-19 11:26 | Report Abuse

PChem is a big cap counter at RM70 bil and 8 billion share.
In order to make a leap for a 100% return , may require a decade or even more.
But nevertheless it's a blue chip, stable with consistent dividend.
Good call!

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-19 11:35 | Report Abuse

What Philip did switching from stock A to stock B is a strategy in my book?

In general, I do not sell my shares. Often, I will switch from A to B. However, this switching will be guided by certain criteria.

1. B must be a high quality company, just like A. It must have a great business with durable competitive advantage.

2. At the present price, B must have significant upside reward to downside loss ratio, compared to stock A.

3. At the present price, B must have a higher potential return over the next 5 to 10 years compared to stock A.

Posted by VenFx > 2019-02-19 21:50 | Report Abuse

Steven Hee bro ,

Shud more often sharing your view here.
I follow all your articles... which i find they are pan out with professional way .

Keep it up bro !

Posted by leno > 2019-02-20 06:00 | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng 说说看妳的PERISAI

Posted by StallionInvestment > 2019-02-20 12:18 | Report Abuse

VenFx, now resign from my ex company. will often publish my view on stock market here. Also will mention when is my upcoming preview and seminar in the future..

Posted by KLCI Going Heaven > 2019-02-20 12:26 | Report Abuse

retarded