Posted by Jay > 2019-06-20 18:05 | Report Abuse

@csan well, I guess you are like the Chinese saying, "a dog can't change from eating shit"

Since you doubled down on your lies, why don't we bet your Greatech profit on them? I'll even give you odds of 10 to 1
1. I'm not seekingalpha888
2. I did not buy any Greatech shares

If you can prove any of the above otherwise, your Greatech profit grows tenfold. Otherwise, you only lose that amount. I'm sparing your capital. Isn't that wonderful?

But to all i3 readers, no money in guessing right a liar will only find an excuse to back out.

Too bad this is an online forum where people can hide behind their PC. It would be fun to see one's reaction when they were caught lying on the spot.

Posted by csan > 2019-06-20 19:00 | Report Abuse

1. it will be proven in next QR when we see that vietnam contributed to their revenue.

2. easy to prove by looking at your analysis. in particular (1) revenue recognised the minute purchase order given and (2) RM150 million revenue in 2019. RM150 million revenue in 2019 means Q419 revenue will be around... RM0? or RM10 million?

the analysis by you only leads to 1 of 2 possible conclusions - either sour grape analysis as someone mentioned earlier or trying to desperately push down by fooling some retailers so that you can collect.

Posted by skyrider > 2019-06-22 02:19 | Report Abuse

Earlier I said Greatech lower tools delivery to First Solar may reflect in Q2 or Q3 2019, but after read the pv magazine 22th Feb 2019 article which said Vietnam S6 factory 2 is coming online in first 2 months of 2019:-

"The manufacturer appears to be on top of its game and has completed the bulk of its transition to the new, large-format Series 6 module, with its second factory in Vietnam coming online in the first two months of this year, "
(https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/22/first-solar-is-sitting-pretty/)

then I would expect revenues for Vietnam S6 factory 2 would have been largely (if not completely) recognised by Q1 2019.

So from Q2 2019 onward, revenue most likely can be recognised only for ONE factory, which is the Ohio S6 factory 2 (Note that in year 2018, revenue were recognised for FOUR factories at the same time !!) So expect to see some shocking result in Q2.

Look like 70 sen is coming by August .......... meantime have fun !!!

Posted by pussycats > 2019-06-22 06:10 | Report Abuse

A very big like to Sifu Jay

Posted by skyrider > 2019-06-22 15:18 | Report Abuse

.... so is 70 sen the final destination ? don't think so.

After the shocking Q2 bring the price to 70 sen, it will slowly slide to 50 sen by Q4 because Q3 and Q4 will still only have revenue recognised from one First Solar factory, that is the Ohio S6 factory 2.

By Q4, Ohio S6 factory 2 would have come online, so by Q4, revenue for Ohio S6 factory 2 would have been fully recognised.

"As the company moved into this year it expected shipments to pick up as factories ramp. First Solar’s new 1.2 GW fab in Ohio is not set to come online until the end of the year but when it does, it will give the business more than 7 GW of annual capacity, ..."
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/22/first-solar-is-sitting-pretty/

and if by Q1 2020, still no new order from First Solar, then Q1 2020 result will be ugly and Greatec will dive well below 50 sen after Q1 announced (that, I supposed, is the worst case scenario) !!

Posted by csan > 2020-02-23 02:46 | Report Abuse

hi jay. maybe you'd like to admit now that you're the dog that cannot stop eating shit?

what a beauty to be able to look back in time to judge.

you're obviously young, amateurish, unable to take criticism and too egoistic. maybe you've become better or you'll get better....not sure...

Posted by Jay > 2020-02-23 09:22 | Report Abuse

I am not frequenting i3 anymore but I felt responsible to respond to your naive comment for other readers' sake.

1. Look closer at Greatech's revenue, it has been dropping for every quarters since IPO. so I was not wrong when I highlighted that orderbook/revenue is dwindling. Profit still held up ok, partly because of reversal of warranties.

2. Share price has done extremely well. This is a fact. But why? Did it report outrageously good numbers? Or any significant newsflow? Answer is no and no.

So what actually happens is so-called PE rerating (in simple terms, people keep chasing the share price when profit does not grow as fast, so PE keep getting higher). Currently they are making ~RM12m a quarter which means the current trailing PE is more than 40x. Even if assume 30% growth, forward PE is ~33x.

I have already highlighted in the ending of my article that I am only interested in the financials, the readers have to decide for themselves what PE does Greatech deserve and derive their own TP. If from the beginning you think that Greatech deserves 40x PE then good for you.

3. Which begs the question, is Greatech's valuation fair or is that irrational exuberance? For reference, its valuation is higher than Vitrox, Pentamaster etc. So Greatech is better than these guys? Of course they are not all 100 %comparable but they do operate in similar space. Time will tell if Greatech is as good/even better than the other equipment makers.

4. @csan I don't know your age and I'm not interested in that either. I'm not young for a long time but throughout my years, I have learned that age has very little to do with knowledge and experience (if you understand).

You may think that I always have a response to all criticism, that's not because I can't take it, it's simply that most of those criticism are flawed (including yours unfortunately). There's no rational argument, no valid basis, all they resort to is shouting, name calling, try to justify everything by share price movement (like you) without bothering to understand the thought process.

Justifying everything by outcome is dangerous, especially over long term. E.g. if you make money over money game, is money game a good investment, or are you a genius? Yes you can justify by saying the outcome trumps all, but keep repeating that, I assure you there's no happy ending. (to be clear, Greatech is not money game, in case people get sensitive)

Many people in this forum kept making low probability and bad risk to reward trades. Occasionally they might hit 1 or 2 winners, but overall they will only be poorer if they keep repeating it. But some people will only cheer that 1 or 2 winners and boast to others, which is fine if it soothes your ego, but I find it disturbing when it influences more people to go down that same path.

As for your concern, yes I'm getting better day by day. Despite not buying Greatech, I have multipled my retirement pot multiple fold in just last few years. But I will always keep learning. Not sure if you are doing the same but good luck.

Posted by Jay > 2020-02-23 09:32 | Report Abuse

Btw, I'm pretty sure you are not aware that First Solar just reported their results two days ago. If you invest in Greatech yet don't even keep track of Greatech's single largest customer (>80% revenue), I have nothing to say but only again wish you good luck