KYY, I agree that the EPS will increase further for the next one or two quarters. However, the EPS will soon drop drastically when more supply from existing and new glove manufacturers. How soon I don't know but I believe it is quite soon. It is better to use discounted model to estimate the fair value for SUPERMX.
The problem is everybody knew their asp n profit will drop significantly in 2022 n 2023
And also the number of shareholders in Supermax has increased drastically by more than 300% in one year's time. A lot of latecomers only started to buy for the "free" bonus issues n most of them are suffering paper loss now and praying for vaccine to be failed n more n more cases of covid 19 so glove co price will rebound n they can have a chance to make some money
While fund manager who bought much earlier at much lower prices disposed their glove shares phase by phase for profit taking n move to recovery plays
I don't see asp n profit will drop significantly in 2022 n 2023 maybe it will drop slightly only, unless 2022 onwards there are zero case of person infected. In March'20 all the analysis projected that covid will go away in 9 months base on previous experience of H1N1 but what do we see now?
Why did I sell all my topglove in May and never looked back? Probably because after that I bought myself some kpower and scib. The secret remains the same, sell when people are buying. Buying when people are selling.
Bull and bear fighting.... We just hold our tickets and chips watching will do. Supermax shouldn't have much impact as Directors family hold more than 50% shares. Floating shares is lesser compare TG.
All this write up about the most powerful factor that will drive Supermax share price is rubbish. Majority of traders don't buy this story. They believe the days of old will return to the glove stocks in the not too distant future. The question is how fast. So, the play is concentrated on recovery stocks. Who gives a damn on all these repeated and recycle stories being spun again snd again like a broken record. In fact, the savvy ones are waiting for a big correction in the current prices of the big 4 glove stocks before buying.
1. mRNA vaccines are 94-95% effective and the majority of US and EU countries are going for them
2. Over time more will be vaccinated and new infections as well as mortality rates will come down
3. Demand for gloves will fall, especially from the panic-buying spot / adhoc order market. The non-medical usage will never be able to make up for the pandemic. Then the (very high up to 10x normal prices) ASP's made up of the spot / adhoc orders will fall quickly. As the past has shown countless times in every pandemic
4. So the longer you wait, the more get vaccinated, the lower the demand and the closer you get to ASP's and spot / adhoc demand reversing to the mean / normal
5. You say, "but what about the next few quarters 'supernormal' profit?" I say it is one-off. And the correct question is which institutional fund will buy (and they are the ones who move the market) knowing that it will come down back to pre-covid levels, knowing that after they buy, who is going to buy from them? Retailers?
6. Now, is there still value? Of course. But that is where Valuations come into play, and unfortunately in gloves, there is only sentiment and 'hot news' and short term traders. After all thats what got you into gloves in the first place isn't it, the lure of 'fast money'. Now fast money become long term bag holder
yes... supermax next QR will be record breaking.... but the share price... i dunno.... if only share market so straightforward, QR good then share price must go up.... i think i will be rich....
ME : THX SIFU TO ELABORATE THE UNTOLD POINTS IN SUPERMAX DAM SCARY !
CharlesT The problem is everybody knew their asp n profit will drop significantly in 2022 n 2023
And also the number of shareholders in Supermax has increased drastically by more than 300% in one year's time. A lot of latecomers only started to buy for the "free" bonus issues n most of them are suffering paper loss now and praying for vaccine to be failed n more n more cases of covid 19 so glove co price will rebound n they can have a chance to make some money
While fund manager who bought much earlier at much lower prices disposed their glove shares phase by phase for profit taking n move to recovery plays 14/01/2021 6:12 AM
Uncle KYY, it is time to stop writing,no need to hard sell, people are immune to the fundamentals already, they just want to get rich overnight. So just relax, and sip your tea/coffee, watch the show.
Well, Uncle KYY has good intention. If you don't have faith in what said, well nobody force you to believe him, just do what you think is right. At least he has provement himself as a successful business man. Good luck to you all.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
gohkimhock
3,129 posts
Posted by gohkimhock > 2021-01-13 22:30 | Report Abuse
*yawn*