Posted by lkoky > 2021-02-11 12:57 | Report Abuse

Again, very good and informative write up. Thanks Ben

Posted by katsul51 > 2021-02-11 14:12 | Report Abuse

Thanks Ben for the good work. Wishing you a prosperous and Happy Lunar New year.

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-02-11 18:12 | Report Abuse

lkoky, katsul51, thank you for your comments. Happy CNY to you, too!

Posted by probability > 2021-02-11 22:41 | Report Abuse

super_newbie is such a gem

Posted by probability > 2021-02-11 22:42 | Report Abuse

Thanks Ben Tan

Posted by CJkenho > 2021-02-11 23:12 | Report Abuse

Blessed Chinese New Year, Ben & thanks for yet another very informative piece!

Just wondering if you might have the latest numbers to the short on gloves? It's incredible that they have not fully closed their positions until now.

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-02-12 11:52 | Report Abuse

probablity, CJkenho, thank you for your comments.

CJkenho, I will try to publish something on this matter soon.

Posted by Imagine333 > 2021-02-12 15:22 | Report Abuse

Ben Tan, you are an incredible analyst and always provide us very good information. Appreciate and thanks so much for your generous sharing.

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-02-12 16:39 | Report Abuse

Imagine333, thank you for your kind comment.

I truly hope the information helps.

Posted by sensonic > 2021-02-13 12:13 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kayap1 > 2021-02-13 16:33 | Report Abuse

Thanks Ben for the excellent works to share these meaningful info! Wishing you and everyone here an oxpicious and bullish Niu Year. May god bless you with great health and abundance happiness! I hope Ben can also share with us if you have done an analysis on impact scenarios for the pending Feb 2021 expiry warrants for Top Glove and Supermax.

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-02-13 18:34 | Report Abuse

kayap1, thank you for your comment. All the best wishes to you and your family, too!

Another forum member - Morpheus61, has previously shared this graph in regards with structured warrants (CWs) and their impact on the share price of Top Glove: https://imgur.com/IbLuY9C

The red line represents the "target price" of the IBs issuing the CWs, so that the CWs won't get exercised (won't be profitable to the holders). The yellow line is the approximate expected price mother share movement. As you can see, the price will be allowed to go up likely only after the end of this month as there are many CWs expiring on Feb 26. The price will then likely get suppressed again in May as there are CWs expiring at relatively low exercise prices around that time. After that the price will once again be let to go up.

Posted by zzzz52 > 2021-02-15 12:00 | Report Abuse

that is a thorough digging and publishing. thanks

Posted by Flying Fox > 2021-02-22 10:47 | Report Abuse

What about supplies for gloves in 1-2 years time?

Even Ah pig Ah Dog or Ah Cat also rushed into Glove industry & invested so much to build new glove production factory.....

Posted by Flying Fox > 2021-02-22 10:48 | Report Abuse

Never learn from mask price collapse in 2020? The ASP for mask dropped all the way from as high as RM75 to now RM5 per box

Posted by Flying Fox > 2021-02-22 10:49 | Report Abuse

Even medicos is priced lower than 30

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-02-22 10:57 | Report Abuse

zzzz52, Flying Fox, thank you for your comments.

Flying Fox, the mechanics of the business with surgical masks and the business with rubber gloves are thoroughly different. The process of mask production is simple and inexpensive, there are even people buying mask production machines and doing it in their garages. The business with rubber gloves requires an established network of suppliers with specialized technical know-how and it is specifically constraint due to raw material unavailability. It is no coincidence that masks are not on FDA's medical device shortages list, whereas gloves (including nitrile, latex, and vinyl gloves) are on top of the list with a designation on the estimated shortage duration reading: "estimated for duration of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency."

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/medical-device-shortages-during-covid-19-public-health-emergency