Leon Fuat to ride on expansion plans of manufacturers
“In hindsight, the timing is just right for us because our steel pipe manufacturing plant is now up and running at a time when the glove manufacturers are expanding, not only this year but also next year. The orders are coming in strongly and we still have sufficient capacity to deliver,” says Ooi, 41, who was appointed to the board of Leon Fuat in June 2012. “It is still early to estimate how our group’s bottom line will be when our steel pipe manufacturing business starts kicking in and becomes mature. But conservatively, based on our production output of 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes per month, I think this division alone could generate an annual revenue of at least RM100 million,” says Ooi.
Despite the prevailing significant risks and the various uncertainties mentioned above, our Board, encouraged by the reasonably good results recorded in the last quarter of 2020 as well as the improved future outlook, is optimistic that our Group will be able to achieve positive results for 2021.
While there are risks, there has also been some momentum in economic recovery that started in the second-half of 2020 and the Group expects the momentum to at least continue into the first-half of 2021 given the number of enquiries it has received. The second quarter of FY2021 will give a clearer picture of how the Group’s business will fare for the year.
Moving forward, despite the prevailing significant risks and the various uncertainties mentioned above, our Group, encouraged by the reasonably good results recorded in FY2020 as well as the improved future outlook, is optimistic that our Group will be able to achieve positive results for FY2021.
Steel prices have been advancing since the second half of 2020 with no indication of abatement in the near future. Nonetheless, mindful of the risks arising from global and local factors mentioned above as well as the risk of reversal in the steel prices, our Group will constantly keep vigilant on the movement of steel prices and related foreign currencies and will take proactive measures including negotiating forward contracts, where necessary, as well as prudent inventory management, to reduce any negative impact which may arise therefrom.
In view of the above, our Board is cautiously optimistic that our Group will be able to achieve profitable results for the remaining quarters of 2021.
Additional info – CSC Steel 1st Quarter 2021 Report
The rollout of Covid-19 vaccines during the beginning of this year has strengthened the market confidence and leading most countries to reach the same goal of reviving domestic production and economic activities despite the imposition of travel restrictions. The positive outlook after Chinese New Year showed a surging trend in steel demand due to limited resources. In Q1, both the US and EU HRC prices continued to surge, reaching a new high at US$1,400/MT, while Asian steel prices are still far behind and there is room for further hike in Q2 due to tight supply.
The global steel demand is driven by the recovery of the automotive, infrastructure, and home appliances sectors, and the steel market is projected to post more robust steel demand in Q2. Furthermore, the US and Chinese governments’ plan to spend US$2.3 trillion and US$1.6 trillion (RMB 10.6 trillion) respectively on infrastructure development in the region, will benefit the global steel industry as the steel demand is expected to soar further for an extended period. On the other hand, China’s strong emphasis on climate is likely to smash the expansion of blast furnace-based production due to environmental issues, which has induced the fear of supply shortage. Also, China’s removal of export tax rebates policy on certain steel products is going to impact steel supply and will greatly support steel prices in the market.
in the next few months probably until year end, local steel prices will continue to hike again. if you think about it, steel industry is allowed to operate at only 10% capacity only, it will create a really big gap of pent-up demand VS available supply. the gov also has extended SST exemption on cars until year end, steel demand will be big, but supply will be very limited, steel price hike is bound to happen...
LF is net debt 70 cents per share and CB and Melewar not are net cash 30 cents per share and 14 cents per share respectively. In this case LB in fact more expensive then CB and Melewar since all are around pe 6 to 7
LF is strongly correlated to the run in steel commodity with the tide which may turn the other way anytime. It's not wise to simply multiply earnings per quarter by 4 for expected annual earnings
If you read all the available facts, the Company is expanding in 3-phase masterplan for steel pipes.
Phase 1 has been completed and commenced operation since 2nd half 2019. Phase 1 facilities can produce up to 5,000 tonnes max per month = 60,000 tonnes per year. As of Dec 2020, it was running at 60% = 3,000 tonnes per month = 36,000 per year.
From the available facts (Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/leon-fuat-ride-expansion-plans-...), conservatively at 60% utilization rate, it can generate about 100m revenue per annum. Assuming at conservative profit margin of 12-15%, factor in price hike whatever you think likely, it can generate easily 12m-15m per annum at ONLY 60% utilisation rate.
Now think about: 1) steel price hike 2) limited supply now local production at 10% workforce 3) car and house HOC tax exempt until year end 4) neighboring countries spending on infrastructure to stimulate their economies (based on Keynes model) 5) manufacturing/automation export increase (Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysias-april-2021-exports-63...) @ manufacture of metal (+RM1.3 billion); and iron and steel products (+RM1 billion)
most importantly: 7) Phase 2 of the masterplan is underway and expecting operation from Q1 2023. You can easily calculate Phase 1 @ 60,000 tonnes capacity p.a. Phase 2 @ atleast 60,000 tonnes capacity p.a. Phase 3 @ after completion of Phase 2
i think all the above are available published facts.
This is the same as glove. The price of the glove go up, but it will come down when covid is over. The high ASP is just temporary.
Same goes to the metal. This is a temporary price hike only. So when everything is back normal, then the selling price also will drop. So same old story
so if KYY say metal price go up and should buy metal stock, then why not buy glove. You see, everything that KYY say now is all just a trap to trap everyone to collect his share. he is selling it now, and need ppl to buy from him.
Conclusion, KYY stock prediction is always too late.
This is the same as glove. The price of the glove go up, but it will come down when covid is over. The high ASP is just temporary.
Same goes to the metal. This is a temporary price hike only. So when everything is back normal, then the selling price also will drop. So same old story
so if KYY say metal price go up and should buy metal stock, then why not buy glove. You see, everything that KYY say now is all just a trap to trap everyone to collect his share. he is selling it now, and need ppl to buy from him.
Conclusion, KYY stock prediction is always too late.
I dun think trap.But there formula to calculate.Last time supermax up more thn 10 times since March 2020(supported buy earning).See the chart already say cannot buy. But dun expect few hundred percent return for KYY recommendation.But net 30-120 percent return.With average at least 50 percent net return when all the stock total and divide the number of stock.****Steel and allumunium stock.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
supersaiyan3
3,131 posts
Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2021-06-05 15:57 | Report Abuse
No, no, no, you had said Xingquan, Dayang, JAKS better.
And I bet you hold more Xingquan in terms of number of shares more than any other shares.