Blog: SARAWAK OIL PALM (5126) AT RM3.58 VERSUS SENI JAYA CORP (9431) AT RM2.79 : COMPARE & CONTRAST THEIR EARNINGS & POTENTIAL, Calvin Tan

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3 comment(s). Last comment by stockraider 2021-12-10 11:47

calvintaneng

56,717 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-12-10 08:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Wizman

58 posts

Posted by Wizman > 2021-12-10 10:33 | Report Abuse

retail investors advise to think wisely to invest in already profitable oil palm stocks such as SOP and others good oil palm stocks. Higher chances oil palm stocks will rise higher 2022 as compare those very high PE30-40 tech/semi-conductor related stocks.

stockraider

31,556 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2021-12-10 11:47 | Report Abuse

Correctloh...if u factor in increase in cost of 10%...the production cost of CPO is Rm 2750 m/t.

Current CPO future 12 mths average ( Average from future Jan 2022 to Dec 2022) pm 4250!

U still talking about very outstanding Gross Margin of about 36% compare to usual 10% mah!

Plantation will record sky high profit going fwd loh!

Btw...usual norm of cost of production is only around Rm 2200 per tonnes!

Posted by Johnzhang > Dec 10, 2021 11:33 AM | Report Abuse

Some Investors may be concern of the labour and fertilizer cost increase on plantation company’s performance in 2022. The IBs and media are very prone to look at only one side of the equation and they seriously lack professionalism.

My view is oil palm plantation will still be laughing to the banks next year. Mind you that most big time CPO traders expect CPO to trade above $5,000 during Jan-Mac 2022 and between $4,000 to $5,000 during Apr-Dec 2022.

Cost of production (at estate level) during recent years (2017-2020) were $1,500 -$1,800 pmt CPO depending on the cost efficiency of each planter.
Average CPO price over same period (2017-2020) was about $2,490 pmt as shown in the calculation below :
2017 $2,800
2018 $2,150
2019 $2,250
2020 $2,760
-----------------
Avg $2,490
=================
Therefore, average Gross Margin in past recent years enjoyed by planters were $990 to $690 pmt CPO. (ie average CPO price $2,490 minus cost of production $1,500 to $1,800).

Due to higher labour and fertilizer costs, the cost of production is expected to increase by max. $300 pmt CPO basis. The new cost of production for 2022 shall be $1,800 -$2,100 pmt CPO.
Based on 2022's CPO price forecasted by big time CPO traders averaging $4,500 , the Gross Margin of the planters will be $2,700 to 2,400 pmt CPO.

2022's Gross Margin is 2.7 times to 3.5 times higher than the average of 2017-2020.

Just for sharing.

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