Posted by wsb_investor > 2021-09-23 18:24 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/south-africas-sanlam-planning-stake-sale-malaysian-insurer-%E2%80%94-sources

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-09-25 10:21 | Report Abuse

https://ycmylife.blogspot.com/2021/09/allianz-1163.html?m=1

Read this article for further information

This is really a hidden gem and that why EPF has been collecting non stop

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-09-27 00:22 | Report Abuse

The following is a sharing by my High School Super Senior, Dr. Tan Chong Koay who is also a founder of Pheim Asset Management (Asia) Pte Ltd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=NAxzOiDVILc&feature=youtu.be

You may find his background from the following link

http://www.pheim.com.sg/about_us/about_us.html

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-09-27 00:29 | Report Abuse

Personally, I believe the existing price is acceptable based on my risk appetite.

Imagine when near to year end and when economy is re-opened soon.

The above Youtube sharing was done by my High School Super Senior in year 2020.

I am greedy when everyone is fearful...............

Posted by wsb_investor > 2021-09-27 15:56 | Report Abuse

12MP : The M40 will be encouraged to subscribe to health and employment insurance to mitigate them from financial vulnerability. In addition, income tax relief on health and life as well as employment insurance for the M40 will be reviewed to reduce healthcare costs. These initiatives will cushion them from unforeseen circumstances due to health and work-related risks.

The Government financial burden will be reduced gradually in providing sustainable quality healthcare services. The Malaysia National Health Accounts report will be strengthened by incorporating a more detailed analysis of public health expenditure as a tool to identify cost drivers within the health system. Current healthcare charges will be reviewed so that higher income patients will be required to pay higher charges. Subsidies for healthcare services will be streamlined based on a means test.

Efforts will be undertaken to encourage the rakyat to have insurance and takaful in financing healthcare expenses.

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-09-29 18:37 | Report Abuse

The engine has been restarted.

I am very positive and keen that share price of Allianz will be skyrocketing very soon due to

1) Positive sentiment in the market (re-opening of economic activities which also means more business activities that will lead to more potential business in insurance as well);

2) Political stability (as PH has promised not to have any election until mid of year 2022);

3) Public awareness of the importance of having health and life insurance during and post pandemic; and

4) High likelihood of favorable Budget 2022 that will be beneficial to Malaysian and business so as to help and speed up recovery of economy

To me, all bad or negative conditions had already passed, which has been evidenced in the Share Price plummeted during the 52 weeks or the year at RM12.48.

Good news will keep coming soon and personally I feel that if you wanted to make money whether on a short, mid or long term, now is a right timing. Share price of Allianz below RM13 is still considered low and cheap comparing to the Intrinsic Value of the Share.

Do not forget also about Window Dressing period which is likely to come in December 2021. I have already placed all 100% of my second pool of funds in Allianz and wait for the price to go up gradually from now to December 2021.

if you are aware of the recent institutional acquisition of Allianz, you will notice that the great "Whale" or EPF has been collecting Allianz without any disposals since mid of year 2021.

What are you waiting for? Collect now before it is too late. A lot of retail investors make losses in stock trading because they only bought the shares when the price had been overvalued or when institutional investors like EPF is getting ready to dump the share or they only bought the shares when the share price had been increased tremendously. Remember, one advice, buy only when not many people are buying. I bought and collected Allianz Shares on dip.

Disclaimer: - Buy or Sell or Hold is your own decision and responsibility. The information above is only for sharing as it is my personal view or opinion; the above information shall not be construed or deemed as an advice for any investment or divestment decision.

Posted by Papayashot > 2021-09-30 12:15 | Report Abuse

How come auditorandconsultant keep on promoting allianz ge?

Kinda miss the moment when @limyuwei lectures us on insurance business le.. Hope to see him/her again in this forum..

Posted by Kitty Kitty > 2021-10-02 09:07 | Report Abuse

EPF has been selling many bluechips .. but slowly little by little accumulate this stock.. something to ponder..

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-10-02 22:19 | Report Abuse

Papayashot,


I promote Allianz because I do not like those so called Expert in the market. Quietly bought and when the price is high only share or recommend the shares to ppl

I would like to share good stocks and let's earn together.

For long term or value investors, can hold long term no problem. I believe Allianz can be a multibagger.

In term of ESG Compliance, I also believe Allianz has outperformed many blue chips.

For mid or short term traders, I believe as long as your TP is not too high, you can always take profit by selling earlier than EPF and other institutional investors.

Do not forget those Institutional Investors like EPF, they cannot simply sell at lower price because they have a target to meet in order to achieve return desired by its capital providers like EPF members and other stakeholders.

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-10-02 22:21 | Report Abuse

@Kitty Kitty,

The reason is very simple. This stock is very much Undervalued.

Despite difficult time in year 2020, the result of Allianz Malaysia was still impressive.

1) Operating Revenue -- Increased 7.4%
2) Gross Written premium -- Increased 7.8%
3) Total Assets -- Increased 11.1%
4) Profit Before Tax -- Increased 5.4%
5) Shareholders' Funds -- Increased 9.7%
6) Basic Earnings Per Share -- Increased 11.6%

Intrinsic Value ("IV") which was calculated based on readily available information as of 3 Dec 2020 = RM20.71

The above IV was before the final and audited result for FY2020.

Indeed, EPF has been collecting from time to time.

In my humble opinion the current price of RM12.76 is very much Undervalued. I feel that it is a hidden diamond which a lot of investors might overlook.

Posted by observatory > 2021-10-03 10:58 | Report Abuse

BNM publishes a report on Impact of Medical Re-pricing Deferrals on Life Insurers and Family Takaful Operators.

My takeaways after reading:

• Between 2015-19, the combined ratios of Life and Takaful Operators (ITOs) is broadly within 90%-100%.
• The combined ratio declined in 2020 as policyholders delay non-critical medical treatment. But the average cost per treatment was up 14%-15%, higher than long term trend of 8%-9%. The higher cost mainly due to pandemic-related protocols may persist in the future.
• However, as movement control is lifted, the number of claims is expected to normalize, or may temporarily exceed past level.
• Most ITOs agreed to defer re-pricing to preserve affordability. Their margin could be squeezed.

Insurers are under pressure not to reprice given policyholders are still suffering from the economic fallouts. It may impact different ITOs differently. For example, ITOs that rely more on credit products like STMB face a lesser impact than Allianz, who in turn fare better than pure life insurers?

I don’t have the details and am not capable to judge the magnitude. Just throw up a thought for others to comment.

Posted by observatory > 2021-10-03 11:04 | Report Abuse

The said BNM report
https://www.bnm.gov.my/documents/20124/4782528/fsr2021h1_en_wb4_medical.pdf

Posted by observatory > 2021-10-03 11:50 | Report Abuse

@auditorandconsultant
Can you share your source of intrinsic value calculation?

I looked up a few broker reports. They value the GI business based on book value. The multiple ranges from 1.2X to 1.6X. The book value estimate varies greatly from FY19A RM2.1b to FY22F RM3b. However I’m skeptical that book value can grow >40% in 3 years. At least one of them must be very wrong.

For the life business, the embedded value (EV) is estimated to be RM2.6b (as of Jun20) to RM3.3b (as of Jun21). Again the difference is rather big. Most apply a multiplier of 1.0X which makes sense. But not sure how they get the actuarial estimation. But none assign any value to the NBV growth which should bring in value too.

Allianz doesn’t disclose its own EV estimation. I also don’t know how to work out its GI book value based on its quarterly or annual report info. Appreciate if anyone can share their estimation approach.

Posted by wsb_investor > 2021-10-04 17:14 | Report Abuse

NB multiplier for well established companies is typically > 10. It can be super high for countries like India and lower in matured market. Even if just assumed 10, and use the YE20 Allianz Life NBV, that is additional 2bil+ on top of current valuation. Some sample number here : https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=15289333958740&sequence=0

Posted by wsb_investor > 2021-10-04 17:40 | Report Abuse

Another thing on VIF (part of EV) calculation, since VIF is basically PV of distributable profit, and since Allianz is heavily selling ILP medical, the VIF amount is actually depending on Allianz calculation methodology. In practice, insurers don't typically assume perpetual medical inflation in the VIF calculation, but in reality the medical inflation will be perpetual. What this means is, the absolute amount of future profit, will only be much higher (assume no interference with the medical repricing).

Posted by observatory > 2021-10-04 20:55 | Report Abuse

@wsb_investor,
Thank you for the important info. Does this NB multiplier correlate mainly with NBV growth rate? If so, do Allianz Ayudhya and Allianz Malaysia have comparable growth rate so that the 10-12 times range is a reasonable choice?


May I ask another question on EV multiple. While 1X seems to make sense, under what circumstance could the EV estimation be grossly wrong?

I notice Chinese life insurers are sold grossly below their EV. Assuming market is rational what could it imply? Major asset write-off? Could such scenario happen here?

Posted by wsb_investor > 2021-10-04 21:47 | Report Abuse

EV is based on a lot assumptions. The assumptions can be conservative or aggressive. For example, aggressive will be high earning rate with low discount rate. Allianz adopts MCEV, or in layman term, risk free earning rate + risk free discount rate. EV also relies a lot on methodology, for example lapse rate, repricing, bonus etc. Investors typically have lesser faith in China inhouse methodology, and to be fair, they are indeed not as sophisticated as MNC like Allianz, Prudential or AIA. Hence people tends to discount the EV multiple for China insurers. NB multiplier, should correlate with future sales. Typically people will assume NBV margin remains unchanged.

Posted by observatory > 2021-10-04 22:45 | Report Abuse

Thank you for the explanation. It's a good education for me!

Posted by hkinvestor > 2021-10-06 02:33 | Report Abuse

I found misconducts and management problems by his staff Desmond Choong who work deviated from Allianz rules. Can anyone advice how I can contact the CEO Mr. Zakri for stopping such risks to Shareholders, Allianz Malaysia and Malaysians?

Please help!

Posted by hkinvestor > 2021-10-06 02:34 | Report Abuse

I found misconducts and management problems by his staff Desmond Choong who work deviated from Allianz rules. Can anyone advice how I can contact the CEO Mr. Zakri for stopping such risks to Shareholders, Allianz Malaysia and Malaysians?

Please help!

Posted by Papayashot > 2021-10-06 13:55 | Report Abuse

Who is Desmond Choong? What position is he holding in Allianz?

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-10-12 17:51 | Report Abuse

陆续有来，会慢慢升到15-16块。年底来了，经济开放，业绩不会输到哪里。而且Allianz 一直有epf 支持，一直买。

加上Allianz可能会拿到ESG高分。这是良心企业。公司不会亏待股东们的

Posted by Papayashot > 2021-10-12 21:28 | Report Abuse

Hi auditorandconsultant, allianz vs. tunepro, which one better?

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-10-12 22:14 | Report Abuse

hi Papayashot,

both are good at different aspects,

I earned from both shares and taught newbie to earn not quite bad return....

Tunepro I did earn from last time early of the year.

Now I am waiting for Tunepro to undergo market correction

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-10-12 22:14 | Report Abuse

这个Tunepro 是保险公司，之前专注旅游保险。自从从AXA 保险挖来了新的老总Rohit 公司的业务已经多元化了，除了旅游保险，也有其他的商业保险。这个counter 开番是迟早。 毕竟旅游保险越来越多国家make it compulsory, 我读过去年Rohit 和其他高层呈现的business proposal ，我乐见其成。

基于我太注重0.37 cents 也就是老总的esos ex price 我在0.385/0.390 错过了买入这颗钻石的机会。

我现在只能等待market correction

Tunepro 是黑马

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-10-12 22:24 | Report Abuse

钱少也能赚钱，我帮助一个刚毕业出来不久的散户在短时间赚取超过25%的回酬

Tunepro

真的开心，因为她本钱少，但是她敢敢相信我。

在0.400 敢敢重仓Tunepro

然后套利在0.505

才两个月半，就套利了赚取大约26%

我真开心帮助晚生赚取一些零用钱。

虽然她只是请我一些小吃我也很感恩，很开怀，因为她相信我，让我往后更加有信心帮助更多的散户

You ppl gonna know, her bank account only has RM15,000 and she trusted me to invest ALL in Tunepro....As i told her best and ideal price is RM0.370 but RM0.400 is still safe

All IN 重仓

Posted by Papayashot > 2021-10-12 22:28 | Report Abuse

Ic auditor, may I know how u earn from ALLIANZ?
U bought since when?

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-10-12 23:00 | Report Abuse

I bought at price below RM13

TP as follows:-

Pessimistic - RM14.15

Neutral - RM15.17

Optimistic - RM16.08

I will keep monitoring and reading all news related to global econ

Posted by Papayashot > 2021-10-12 23:06 | Report Abuse

wow, u always buy at the lowest price, my dear auditor.. U r awesome

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-10-12 23:16 | Report Abuse

Aim Lower Price, if possible aim to buy only below Intrinsic Value (IV)

and if possible, try to buy at the lowest point which is also known as the Price for Margin of Safety (PMOS) , i.e. less 25% of the IV, this will serve as a buffer to cushion for market fluctuation

Benjamin Graham's method is always the best way

It is proven that I used this method in Tunepro, Thong Guan, MBSB and BAT.

Now Allianz.

Value Investment Based on Fundamental Analysis is the way I have adopted since beginning of my investment journey

To be honest, I have not made any losses at all this year when I start to master the Great Grand Sifu Technic.

I need to admit I could not be imitating 100% the method adopted by Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffet or Charlie Munger.

But, I adjust and fine tune my investment way to be closer to their ways. I find that my risk has been reduced significantly and higher ROI in shorter time is the best evidence for using their ways.

There is an inspirational quote from Charlie Munger: The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting. ... While waiting for others to fear, buying well-chosen stocks will bring “big money” to us easier.

Posted by Papayashot > 2021-10-13 23:12 | Report Abuse

Wondering the impact of higher claim in post-pandemic era on insurer such as Allianz....

Posted by wsb_investor > 2021-10-14 09:33 | Report Abuse

repricing in 2021, absolute profit still higher no matter what

Posted by Papayashot > 2021-10-14 12:37 | Report Abuse

hi wsb_investor, I tot insurers are not allowed to increase the premium price, as to reduce the burden of customers? Please correct me if I am wrong..

Posted by wsb_investor > 2021-10-14 15:50 | Report Abuse

Nope, BNM asked insurers to delay repricing in 2020, but no restriction in 2021.

Posted by DonWorryBeHappy > 2021-10-15 01:23 | Report Abuse

Bought some 12.94

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-10-15 11:24 | Report Abuse

没升到16块，别轻举妄动！我一直相信着，今年的目标16块！再给点力量。。。加油！

I believe with the repricing of insurance premium in year 2021, the TP for Allianz could go up to RM16 by end of this year

Something to ponder why EPF keeps on buying and no selling at all.

Add oil!

Posted by wsb_investor > 2021-10-15 14:19 | Report Abuse

EPF can be wrong too

Posted by Papayashot > 2021-10-15 23:13 | Report Abuse

EPF dumps takaful and buy Allianz.. Wondering what happened... Interesting.

Posted by observatory > 2021-10-16 14:04 | Report Abuse

@Papayashot, check the number of shares EPF received on Oct 8

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3200484

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-10-18 17:53 | Report Abuse

The engine has been started, today broke RM13.00 point.

Aim for RM16 by end of year 2021 and hope for Special Dividend.

MCO during 2021, less claim and higher profit. Plus repricing in year 2021 will be the catalyst to push up the price to RM16.

Re-opening of economic activities means less default of premium and continuity of payment for insurance premium with higher consciousness for the need of insurance after this pandemic should be a driver for higher revenue and profit in upcoming years.

Stay tuned for good and positive news.

Disclaimer: - Buy or Sell or Hold is your own decision and responsibility. The information above is only for sharing as it is my personal view or opinion; the above information shall not be construed or deemed as an advice for any investment or divestment decision.

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-10-20 09:42 | Report Abuse

基本面价值投资是王道。我把股票投资当成长久的事业，会学习 Charlie Munger 说的，大钱之所以能赚多是等来的

我看好Allianz 会在今年年尾接近RM16, 没有买的人真的要快了

my funds used for investment ALL IN only two counters. You can imagine the quantities. BAT and Allianz as these two are very undervalued and they are slightly safer and I treat them as Sanctuary when US market is unstable right now

我走重仓路线，基本面价值投资。

Aim for RM16 by end of year 2021 and hope for Special Dividend. MCO during 2021, less claim and higher profit. Plus repricing in year 2021 will be the catalyst to push up the price to RM16.

Re-opening of economic activities means less default of premium and continuity of payment for insurance premium with higher consciousness for the need of insurance after this pandemic should be a driver for higher revenue and profit in upcoming years.

Stay tuned for good and positive news.

还没有买的人动作快了咯. Allianz 就飞了。我有很大的信心明天会继续飞，继续起价。

Hoseh 了咯，我等Special Dividend.真的飞了，没有骗人的啊

我正面分析了，年底或接近分股息的时候，我看好破RM16

the price is surging now as per my expectation when the price plummeted to below RM13

I expect Special Dividend and expect price to break or near to RM16 soon

记得记得，基本面价值投资路线不可以追高啊

凡事跟着自己设立的risk appetite

Posted by Rambutan9 > 2021-10-21 21:26 | Report Abuse

Auditor, there are about equal number of preferential share which eventually will be converted to ordinary share. Do you think the IV will be halved after that?

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-10-22 08:06 | Report Abuse

Rambutan, valid question.

Yup, the existing share value will be affected to the extent of number of newly issued ordinary shares upon the conversion of preference shares.

When convertible preferred stock holders choose to convert their stocks to common stocks, the stocks they receive are newly issued. This increases the total number of common shares. Because the number of common shares increases while the value of the company remains the same, the value of existing shares goes down.

Posted by wsb_investor > 2021-10-22 11:17 | Report Abuse

People always measure the value per share, with considering of the preferential share. So convert or not, doesn't matter.

Posted by Papayashot > 2021-10-22 12:31 | Report Abuse

I presume diluted earning per share is more meaningful

Posted by Rambutan9 > 2021-10-22 21:10 | Report Abuse

Auditor, thank you for your prompt and insightful explanation.

Posted by auditorandconsultant > 2021-10-23 23:56 | Report Abuse

Allianz is going to start its engine and fly high very soon. Slowly going up to RM13.18 from RM12.62 in mid of September 2021.

Those not yet invest but are keen to earn together, hopefully you can join us before Allianz price breaks RM14 soon

每天很像乌龟一样慢慢爬上来，但是引擎开始启动了，很快会突破RM14 ，看好年底或靠近宣布分股息的一月会突破RM16。大家一起赚钱啊。

记得慢就是快。富贵稳中求胜。大家一起效仿姜太公钓鱼愿者上钩。

Posted by million76 > 2021-10-24 19:40 | Report Abuse

10-Year bond is in uptrend and this is not good for Allianz

Posted by Papayashot > 2021-10-25 14:17 | Report Abuse

May I know, normally for fund managers like those in big company such as ALLIANZ, etc. how to survive in bond market as the interest % is fluctuating? I am sure they've some ways to protect themselves?

Posted by wsb_investor > 2021-10-25 16:41 | Report Abuse

Actuaries will always ensure asset-liability matching, by dollar duration.